The St. Louis Cardinals suffered the first crack in their best-in-baseball starting rotation Sunday when they placed Jake Westbrook on the 15-day disabled list with elbow inflammation. The team decided to give Westrbook’s start to rookie John Gast, but they might have been better off to let a more experienced pitcher fill that role.

Joe Kelly made his Major League Baseball debut in similar circumstances last season after Jaime Garcia suffered a shoulder injury in June. Kelly went on to make 16 starts and post a 4-6 record with a 3.53 earned-run average, overall.

Although he didn’t have a winning record, Kelly did an admirable job filling a hole in the rotation last summer. He pitched six or more innings in all but three of his starts, and the Cardinals offense scored two or fewer runs in five of his six losses, and they scored just three in the other.

Kelly moved to the bullpen when Garcia returned in September and pitched well. He allowed just two runs in six appearances, but he also had a consistent workload by pitching about every third day. Manager Mike Matheny has significantly dropped his workload this season, and it’s shown in his results.

Kelly pitched twice in the Cardinals’ season-opening series in Arizona against the Diamondbacks, but he pitched only six more times the rest of April and had the fewest outings for any Cardinals reliever.

And then he imploded when the Cardinals did bring him into ballgames. He has allowed 10 runs in 11.2 innings pitched, but he’s also appeared in just three games in May. Perhaps a bigger role would help him get comfortable again and start to pitch better.

That’s also why a move to the rotation might help. Kelly would be guaranteed to pitch every fifth day, and he would be able to extend his pitch total well beyond what he gets as a member of the bullpen. He hasn’t thrown more than 27 pitches in an appearance this season, and that could quadruple if he moved to the rotation.

Plus, the Cardinals management wouldn’t have to hold its breath with another rookie on the mound to start a game.

Gast has been good for the Triple-A Memphis Redbirds. He’s 3-1 with a 1.16 ERA in seven starts this season in the minors, but there is always an unknown factor that comes into play when a rookie makes a start, and they often don’t pitch very deep into a ballgame.

The Cardinals might have left Kelly in the bullpen because they don’t want to force him to shift between starting and relieving if Westbrook comes back soon, but that shouldn’t be much of a problem since Kelly bounced between the rotation and bullpen last season and worked as a starter in spring training because he was in contention for the fifth spot in the rotation with Shelby Miller.

The Cardinals have even set a precedent for bringing up young pitchers this season when they brought Seth Maness and Carlos Martinez up from the minors. Both of those pitchers went straight into the bullpen and have done well.

Martinez gave up three runs Sunday to the Colorado Rockies in his third appearance, but he had not allowed a run and given up just one hit in his previous two outings. Meanwhile, Maness already has two wins, has allowed just one hit hasn’t walked a hitter in 3.1 innings through three outings.

Martinez and Maness could certainly become starters at some point in their career, yet the Cardinals will still send Gast to the mound while Martinez, Maness and Kelly sit in the bullpen.

Maybe Gast will be great and pitch the way Kelly and Lance Lynn did last season as fill-in rookie starters when they went a combined 23-14 with a combined 3.66 ERA.

But if he’s not, the Cardinals will have wasted games by hoping yet another rookie will do well in the rotation while Kelly sits in the bullpen.

Although three games remain before the All-Star break, the Kansas City Royals concluded the first half of their season on a good note with a 9-6 victory over the Toronto Blue Jays. The Royals will travel to Detroit for a three game weekend series before the boys in blue get a much needed breather while the mid-summer classic is in Kansas City.  Overall, besides the record, there have been many good things that the Royals have done over the first 81 games of the season.

After starting the season at a dismal 3-15, which included a 12 game losing streak, the Royals are 34-29 since and still have an outside shot for the division going into the second half of the season. Seeing that this team is so young and just learning how to win in the major leagues ending the season at a .500 mark would be huge for this organization to build confidence for the future.

One thing that will need to change for the Royals to have a chance at winning 44 games in the second half would be the starting pitching.  With Bruce Chen finding his stride in the latter part of the second half and Luke Hochevar still toying with fans by throwing 2 good outings and then having a game where he looks like former Royal Kyle Davies, the pitching has improved at the front of the rotation.  But the big elephant in the clubhouse is starter Jonathan Sanchez.  It is not only the fact that he has not been good at all this year on the mound but that he just doesn’t seem to care.  There are guys in this clubhouse i.e. Billy Butler and Alex Gordon that have been through the struggles of being a Royal throughout their careers and now that the talent is on the field want nothing but to win.  When a front office and even a manager continue to put a guy on the mound every fifth day that doesn’t seem to have the stuff to win nor care enough to change something about it what does that say to the rest of the team.  It says the we made a mistake in the trade but cannot admit it.  Well if you are going to triumph in your good personnel decisions then you also have to admit when it is just not working out.  Pitching is the key for the Royals in the second half and for the future of the team. Now whether that be promoting from within your organization or going out and making a trade that can boost both the guys in the clubhouse and the position of this team in the division standings.

If the team was to go out and get a guy via trade this season or sign one of the arms coming out in free agency over the offseason they could be a contender.  If the Royals could sign one of the two big arms in free agency, being Cole Hamels or Zack Greinke, this rotation gets better as a whole right away. Not only are you getting an ace arm on your staff but it would also make the rest of your starters better.  The fact that right now the Royals are throwing Bruce Chen against other teams number one guy is just not fair.  Bruce would be a great three or four for the Royals but they have to find a number one starters first.  Back to what was said earlier, if the team can get to .500 with as young a team as they have it would be an easy sell for any big name to come to Kansas City to play on a team that is ready to win.

A few changes could be made in the field by the time the Royals season comes to an end later this year.  With the way that second basemen Yunieksy Betancourt is playing as of late he could be a good right handed bat for a team.  Filling the organization with more prospects would help to fill the holes that are left when guys are promoted to the big league level.  Also, Jeff Franceour could be playing in a different uniform before long which would be bittersweet for many fans as he is a fan favorite but that would also open up a spot in the field for the number one hitting prospect in the organization in Wil Myers. No telling what moves will be made before the trade deadline but this team may look a little different than it does now.

So previewing here a little bit here is what could be the future of the Royals both in the field and on the mound. (Some are for this season and some are for the future beyond that, but for this to happen the team is going to have to spend some money for this to come true)

Starting Rotation

1. A new guy (Matt Garza, Zack Greinke, Cole Hamels)
2. Luke Hochevar
3. Danny Duffy
4. Jake Odorizzi
5. Bruce Chen

Batting Order

1. Alex Gordon-left field
2. Alcides Escobar-shortstop
3. Eric Hosmer-first base
4. Billy Butler-designated hitter
5. Mike Moustakas-third base
6. Wil Myers-right field
7. Salvador Perez-catcher
8. Lorenzo Cain-center field
9. Chris Getz/Johnny Giavotella-second base

If this is the team that the Royals could field in the future not only for seasons to come but maybe even for a month or two this season they could win and win a lot. I am not saying go for broke this year because this is not the year for the Royals to try and win a division but if they can get this team on the field sooner rather than later they could learn not only to win at a young age but win together.  Team chemistry is the key here and having guys like Billy Butler and Salvador Perez in the clubhouse the leadership that Royals teams in the past have lacked is a pretty good commodity to have.  Once again, a lot of positives can be taken from the first half of the season but the holes that the Royals do have need to be filled soon for this team to win.  And if they make a move or two watch out.  It has been so long since the Royals won that one cannot even say that the Royals are back.  The simple thing to say would be “The Royals are here, and here to stay.”

Add another body to the pile.

The St. Louis Cardinals placed lefty Jaime Garcia on the 15-day disabled list because of a shoulder strain. Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported Garcia has tears in both his rotator cuff and labrum and is likely to be sidelined for at least two months. The Cards called up Joe Kelly from Triple-A Memphis to take Garcia’s turn in the rotation Sunday against the Cleveland Indians. Anything beyond that is probably semi-up in the air.

At this point, it seems like the only valid response to news like this is a shrug of the shoulders and an uninterested “What’s next?” The Cards are close to being able to field a complete disabled list team now. That this team is even one game over .500 is kind of remarkable.

Though that may not last once the Garcia injury truly hits this team. Sure it’s nice to see Kelly make his Major League debut or a guy like Brandon Dickson get a shot at a couple of turns in the rotation. But if they stumble or prove they are not ready for The Show, what happens then? Do the Cards keep bringing minor leaguers up until one sticks? Do they convert another reliever—maybe a guy like Mitchell Boggs—into a starter?

Right now, the Cardinals have three starters they can count on night in and night out: Adam Wainwright, Kyle Lohse, and Lance Lynn. But even they are not in ideal situations. Wainwright is still regaining form after missing all of last year, Lohse is prone to streaks of inconsistency as the season wears on, and Lynn is in his first full season as a starter. Jake Westbrook takes the ball every fifth day, but that’s about it in terms of his steadiness. This rotation has no mortal-lock rock to lean on. And that is a scary thing to think about when the season is more than two months old and it’s likely to be at least two more months until guys like Garcia or Chris Carpenter are even sniffing reactivation.

Make no mistake about it—this team is in the midst of quite possibly its greatest test of the year. The only thing that could make it worse is if Rafael Furcal, Carlos Beltran, and Yadier Molina have arms and legs start falling off. Maybe Matt Holliday, David Freese, and Jason Motte could all come down with plague at the same time, too. Would that really surprise anyone?

Man…just listing out those names and thinking about the players the Cards already have on the DL…this team really had a chance to be special, if not dominant, from wire to wire.

I know, I know. In 2006, the Cards had a similar truckload of injuries and got healthy just in time for the playoffs. In 2011, they made up 10.5 games after August 25. Anything truly is possible, and in no way should this team be given up on so early in the season.
But 2012 has all the makings of a “what if” year so far. And those are painful to deal with. Think about it. What If Holliday caught that liner in Los Angeles in 2009? What If Carpenter hadn’t been injured in 2004? What If Vince Coleman got out of the way of the tarp in 1985? And What If the 2012 Cardinals only sustained half the injuries they have to date?

Maybe the better way to look at it is, What If the Cards can get this team whole again? One thing is for certain: if they can’t, they are in serious trouble.

Chris Reed also writes for InsideSTL Mondays and Bird Brained whenever he feels like it. Follow him on Twitter @birdbrained.

8 Days: Until the Cactus League Opener

41 Days: Until Opening Night

When I came up with the concept of doing profiles of players in Dayton Moore’s process it occurred to me that “The Process” needed it’s own logo. I discussed the concept with James Tyree and he came up with this logo for what many Kansas City Royals’ fans have endearingly refer to as “The Process”

From this day forward any time “The Process’ is mentioned in one of my posts. Said post will proudly display this logo.

This week I’m going to focus on a player who I believe must blossom into All-Star caliber pitcher if “The Process” is going to get the Royals into the playoffs. I don’t mean a capable middle of the rotation innings eater. I’m talking about a Zack Greinke type, takes the ball every fifth day and you know the Royals have a better than even chance to win, ace pitcher. I am talking about Mike Montgomery.

The Royals drafted Mike Montgomery out of Hart High School in Newhall, CA with the 36th Pick in 2008 Amateur Draft. If you’ll recall that was the same draft Eric Hosmer was taken with the 3rd overall pick. A year ago I was really excited that the Royals had Montgomery in the farm system. Baseball America listed Montgomery as the #19 prospect on their Top 100 Prospects list. To add some shine to the varnish, Montgomery throws left handed. I was delighted to see Montgomery destroy the Cactus League last year. In April I attended the Futures Game at Kauffman Stadium. When I saw Montgomery pitch that day there was no doubt we would see him a Royals uniform by the All-Star Break.

However, the season started and the reports out Omaha become troubling, and that major league debut for Montgomery never came. Instead it was Danny Duffy who was called up when Bruce Chen went down with an injury. I’m not up to speed on how to bring a pitcher through a minor league system. Maybe the Royals organization had Montgomery “working on something” last season. I’ve heard that reason given for a spring training with terrible statistics, and I believe that would be the case. There’s plenty of pitchers who had terrible statistics in spring training that went on to have excellent seasons. I have yet to hear about someone “working on something” for an entire season. Of course, established major leaguers have bad seasons so it’s reasonable to assume that prospects can have them too. They have less of a track record in which to base their success.

Last season does not mean Montgomery is a lost cause, far from it. This spring Baseball America has Montgomery listed as #23 in their Top 100 Prospects List. That’s still good company. Montgomery is expected to compete with several other young arms for the two remaining slots in the Royals rotation. Based who has options, and who doesn’t, I don’t expect Montgomery to break camp with the Royals. I hope he pitches well enough this spring to force the Royals hand and put him in the rotation coming out of camp. If that does not happen I’m sure Montgomery will be up at some point this season. At least I hope so. The Royals need their number one prospect to be dominant. If the Royals are going to win the division, they need their number one prospect to turn into an ace. Not just an ace of a team, but an ace on a playoff team.

Pencil in Greinke every fifth day and develop a few quality starters around him, keep them healthy, and build a bridge to “The Mexicutioner.” It seemed simple enough.

Going back a couple of years ago, it didn’t seem impossible to build a decent pitching staff. Zach Greinke was blossoming into a Cy Young pitcher. He was backed by a young and talented cast. And Ramon Ramirez and Leo Nunez were developing into quality set-up men.

Fast forward two years, and you’ve got a dissatisfied Greinke who might be on the trading block, Luke Hochever who can’t seem to live up to his potential, Kyle Davies who might be about out of chances to prove he belongs, Gil Meche who injuries have forced to the bullpen, and Brian Bannister who’s now gone.

The hopes for this group of pitchers is fading fast.

Losing seems to have taken its toll on Greinke. Lofty expectations following his remarkable 2009 may not have helped. Whatever the reason, the Royals ace struggled in 2010, and his frustrations bubbled over in August. He complained that the Royals’ current rebuilding effort is nothing he hasn’t seen before. He isn’t sure he wants to wait on a new crop of youngsters to develop.

Greinke didn’t seem to have the same magic in 2010, but a look beyond won/loss and ERA bears out that he’s still one of the best in the game. In fact, his WAR ranking would place him 7^th in the American League.

So what to do with him? The Royals should reap a haul if they do deal Greinke. But past blockbuster moves of superstars haven’t brought the desired return (remember Carlos Beltran?). Should they play him half the season and ship him to a contender? Or should they open up the bidding war now during the off-season? And with the minor league cupboard full, should the Royals accept prospects for Greinke?

The recent trade of David DeJesus for Oakland A’s right-hander Vin Mazarro raised some eyebrows. Was this move to fill a spot soon to be vacated by Greinke? Mazarro is just 10-17 with a 4.72 ERA in two big league seasons. But he just turned 24 and his defenders claim the statistics don’t tell the story of his ability. Reports are that he hits mid-90s with his fastball and is developing other quality pitches.

One is tempted to question why the Royals went after (settled for?) Mazarro. Was he a fair value for DeJesus, a proven commodity? Was this trade more motivated by economics than by Mazarro’s potential?

But we’re talking about Royals pitching, and like it or not, Mazarro is a Royal and DeJesus is an Oakland A. So add Mazarro to the mix and brace yourself for more development of young, unproven pitching.

Royal fans must hope Mazarro isn’t another Sean O’Sullivan, a youngster who would appear to have ability, but whose performance has thus far been disappointing.

O’Sullivan arrived in July and went 3-6 with a disastrous 6.11 ERA. The one ray of hope for O’Sullivan is that his WHIP was a bit more normal 1.557.

Hochever figures to be back in the rotation in 2011, but Davies is not a sure thing. The Royals will need to offer him another contract before December, or he could be cut loose. Both pitchers need to find some consistency. Flashes of brilliance are too few and far between for these two 27-year-olds.

And that leaves a mid-season addition to the rotation who had perhaps the group’s best season – Bruce Chen. Chen emerged in late April to lead the staff with 12 wins, and his 4.17 ERA matched Greinke’s. But Chen is a free agent and is unlikely to be back.

O’Sullivan and Mazarro will have a limited window of opportunity to prove they belong in the Royals’ rotation. The farm system is loaded with arms that should be making their way to the big leagues in the next few years.

Depending upon who you hear from, any one of Mike Montgomery, John Lamb, Chris Dwyer, or Danny Duffy could be the top left hander in all the minor leagues. Aaron Crow struggled making the transition to pro baseball, but the tools are there.

Most likely each of these young guns will start the season at AA or AAA, but shades of Saberhagen, Gubicza and Jackson have Royals fans counting the days. Regardless how the big league club performs, it should be another exciting year to follow the Omaha and Northwest Arkansas teams.

Now as for relief pitching, there’s Joakim Soria and… well…

Setting up “The Mexicutioner” could be interesting. Hughes, Wood, Bullington, Holland, Humber, Marte, Texeira… None seems any different than the others, and none seemed to get the job done in 2010. Meche will most likely figure into the bullpen, and the one guy who seems to have potential is Robinson Tejeda. His inconsistency was maddening, but he had a high SO/9 and low H/9.

The good news is, at just 26, Soria already has notched 132 saves and rarely blows an opportunity. He was selected the Royals’ Pitcher of the Year, was named to the All-Star Game, and yet still remains a great secret to the rest of the country because leads in the 9^th are all too rare. Imagine how valuable Soria would be if the Royals were a contender.

The prospects are bleak enough for the pitching staff even with Greinke. Should the team decide to deal him, it’s because they’ve given up not only on the team’s chances for 2011, but also for this entire group of pitchers. Royals fans can only hope the next wave of young guns can live up to expectations.