Each year, not matter how dreadful it is, a player and pitcher of the year is named by the Kansas City Royals. While it’s far from a scientific process, I thought it would be fun to try to project who will win that award in 2012. Now I want to be clear, this is not who should win the award. As is the case with most things the Royals do, what should happen and what will happen are not necessarily the same. Nonetheless, here are the contestants.

PLAYER OF THE YEAR

Alex Gordon- If this were a scientific process, Gordon would be the winner as he leads the team in WAR at 4.8. In fact, in terms of value, no one on the team is within 29% of his 4.8 WAR. After a terribly slow start to the season, Gordon now leads the majors with 47 doubles and has put together yet another spectacular defensive season. He’s quietly (at least outside of Kansas City) turned into one of the best defensive corner outfielders in the American League. Gordon also leads the team in walks and runs while placing second in hits, OBP, and triples. The negative, if there is one for Gordon, is that advanced metrics agree with the eye test that Gordon is not very clutch. In terms of advanced metrics, he is the least clutch player on the team with a clutch rating of -1.5. Furthermore, is WPA (Win Probability Added) is actually -0.5 for the season.

Billy Butler- If this was simple the award for offensive player of the year, you’d have to give it to Butler.  Butler leads the club in all three Triple Crown categories plus OBP and Slugging %. Butler’s 137 OPS+ is easily the best on the team and it really isn’t close. He’s most likely going to finish with .300/30/100 for the first time in Kansas City since Jermaine Dye in 2000. Unfortunately, this is a player of the year award and that includes defense, which would be the down side for Butler and why is WAR ranks Butler as the 4^th best player on the team. The only real question with Butler is whether is offensive statistics are impressive enough to override his lack of contribution in the field. That may very well be determined by his production in the last 17 games of the season.

Alcides Escobar- If we’d gotten the type of defense we expected from Escobar this season he may just be a runaway winner. Unfortunately, he has 17 errors and seems to have regressed just a little bit in the field. Of course that may be because he’s been so focused on what has been an outstanding year at the plate. Escobar leads in the team with seven triples and 29 stolen bases, is second in batting average, and surprisingly third in OBP. WAR rates Escobar as the Royals second best player, partially because he does still add something with his glove, but mostly because there just aren’t very many shortstops that can hit like him. He has a very good chance to finish the season with a .300 average, 30 stolen bases and 40 extra base hits. No one has done that in Kansas City since Carlos Beltran in 2003.

And the winner is…

I think it ends up being Gordon if only because Dayton Moore loves to feel like he’s smart and it would make him feel like a genius to have gotten Gordon’s contract done. Butler could probably only win the award by breaking Balboni’s record which would take ten home runs over the next 17 games…not happening.

PITCHER OF THE YEAR

Kelvin Herrera- Should middle relievers really be considered? Well, WAR thinks Herrera is the best pitcher on the club, so I’d say so. In 69 appearances, Herrera has a 2.43 ERA. Depending on which site you read, he may be the (consistently) hardest thrower in all of baseball. I don’t believe the Royals have the ability to recognize a pitcher with only 4 wins and 1 save, but Herrera should win the award regardless.

Greg Holland- Holland was arguably the best closer in baseball in August, and though he’s struggled a bit down the stretch he still sports a 2.98 ERA with 13 saves in 60 appearances. Holland’s most impressive stat? He’s struck out 84 batters in just 60 innings. He probably needs a couple more saves, and no more blow ups, to win the award. One thing that may help are his six wins, at least in the Royals eyes.

Jeremy Guthrie- Do I say this tongue-in-cheek? Kind of. Guthrie has been outstanding since the Royals acquired him for Jonathan Sanchez. The club is one game over .500 since they traded for him on July 20 and they’re 7-3 in games Guthrie has started including three games in which they only scored 2 runs. Guthrie would probably need to win his last three starts and lower his ERA below 3 (currently at 3.23) to have a real shot, but it plays right into the Dayton Moore making himself look smart angle.

And the winner is…

I believe in Greg Holland so I’m going to assume he finishes the year strong and wins the award with 18+ saves and a sub-3 ERA. He may not be the most deserving pitcher but he’ll have the statistics to make the club feel better about selecting him.

Neifi Perez was actually a good defensive shortstop. Amos Otis wasn’t as good a centerfielder as he was reputed to be. And Frank White wasn’t as good with the glove as some of his1970s second base contemporaries.

Those are just some of the assertions by Michael A. Humphreys in Wizardry: Baseball’s All-Time Greatest Fielders Revealed.

(Humphrey’s starting lineup of all-time greatest is at the end of this article)

The development of sabermetrics has changed how we analyze and discuss baseball. But I must be honest that when I try to study overly sophisticated statistical measures, my head sometimes starts to spin and my eyes go out of focus. As a writer, I tend to want to leave the heavy lifting to someone else, focusing more on the story, less on the calculus.

But I was intrigued enough by Humphrey’s individual defensive rankings in his recent book that I gave it a casual perusal, skimming the math to get to the findings.

My personal opinion: there are two sides to the coin of player analysis. You may prefer one over the other, but no matter what you believe, the beauty is in the debate.

Like the classic argument of “Who was better? Williams or DiMaggio? Mantle or Mays?” There is joy to be had in comparing the greatness of individuals.

Some would rely upon the eye-test. A Supreme Court Justice once reportedly said concerning pornography that he couldn’t define it, “but I know it when I see it.” Applying this logic to player analysis, some fans base their judgments upon what they see. Or what others have seen. To them, the eye doesn’t lie.

Problems with this approach are that our opinions are skewed by perception, legend, bias, etc. Evaluation of Negro league players depends almost entirely upon this method. Statistics mean virtually nothing when trying to include a Satchel Paige or a Josh Gibson in the discussion.

And it would seem obvious that some players benefit from perception, while others are penalized. Some guys make great plays look easy, while others seem constantly to be diving and grinding. That perception affects our judgments.

On the other hand, some fans choose to eschew subjective observation, relying instead upon complicated formulas to render empirical judgments.

But as Mark Twain famously said, “There are lies, damn lies, and statistics.” Sometimes, it would appear, sabermatricians endanger themselves of missing the forest for their study of the trees.

Mr. Humpreys would fall in the second category. Using his “Defensive Regression Analysis” and accounting for everything from the stadiums to the Dead Ball Era to his “Talent Pool Adjusted Runs” (having to do with integration), Humphreys does more calculating than a NASA engineer.

Ready for his sales pitch?

“Michael A. Humphreys shows how to apply classic statistical methods to estimate runs saved by fielders going back to 1883. Humphreys tests his results against other fielding measures, including published ratings based on proprietary batted ball location data, and explains their respective strengths and limitations… Position by position, Humphreys identifies and profiles the greatest fielders of all time…”

My eyes just went bleary. Are you like I was, ready to skip the math lesson and get on to what we really want to see – where Kansas City Royals rate according to Mr. Humphreys?

What he found was certainly intriguing.

My favorite of Humphrey’s conclusions was that Willie Wilson was the second greatest left fielder of all time.

“Wilson also saved more runs in left field per 1450 innings than any other left fielder in history; the only reason Wilson isn’t the greatest left fielder in history on a career basis is because his team moved him to center… could credit Wilson with another dozen or so runs for holding base runners, which makes sense because Wilson could cut off batted balls that dropped in for hits and get them back into the infield so quickly.”

Also on the plus side for Royals fans, George Brett was twelfth in the Modern Era (1969-1992).

Humphrey’s formulas show Rey Sanchez (KC from 1999-2001) was the best defensive shortstop of the contemporary era, and second greatest ever.

That’s cool. But according to the same standard, Neifi Perez was fourth best in the contemporary era. You’ll have a hard time convincing many KC fans of that.

There were other findings Royals fans will take exception with.

Humphrey states Otis was greatly overrated as a centerfielder.

“The Historical Abstract describes Otis as a ‘magnificent’ fielding center fielder, but (various statistical standards) indicate otherwise. Otis was a solid fielder until about 1976… Otis fell off after age thirty, as seems to happen to many center fielders, and consistently played worse than his backups…”

Freddie Patek also appears to have been overrated, according to the stats. Either Humphrey’s standards are wrong, or else the perception of Patek was, because it was his glove that kept him the lineup while his bat was certainly a detriment.

Most shockingly, White was rated EIGHTH in the Modern Era at second base, judged by one statistical measure. White may be an example where statistical measures just can’t tell the whole story.

Humphrey rates White ninth overall, which isn’t bad. But amazingly, three players who played the same position in the same league at the same time – Lou Whitaker, Willie Randolph, and Bobby Grich – were ranked higher. That means that, according to Humphrey, while White was winning those eight Gold Gloves, he was actually getting outplayed by several other guys in the same league.

I don’t buy it.

There are many other controversial findings in the book.

Humphrey believes Gold Gloves don’t go to the best defenders. He says they tend to be given to good all-around players who had an exceptional season defensively in the early stage of their career. From that point on, they continue to win them repeatedly even when their skills decline.

His greatest case in point: Ken Griffey, Jr. Griffey won 10 straight Gold Gloves, but according to Humphrey’s analysis, Junior “was never clearly better than average when he was winning all those Gold Gloves.”

Other vastly over-rated centerfielders include Torii Hunter (9GGs). Steve Finley (5GGs) and Bernie Williams (4GGs). Humphrey says Joe DiMaggio was over-rated as a center fielder, and was actually not as good at the position as his lesser-known brother Dom.

According to Humphrey, Johnny Bench doesn’t make the top ten at catcher, while contemporaries Gary Carter, Jim Sundberg, Steve Yeager, and Bob Boone do.

Of interest to Cardinal fans:

Humphreys finds Albert Pujols the third greatest defensive first baseman of all time. He says Pujols should be considered the greatest all-around player to ever play the position.

I’ll keep Cardinal fans waiting to see who Humphrey has number one at first base.

By one standard of measurement (Talent Pool Adjusted Runs), Frankie Frisch came out as the greatest second baseman of all time.

Shortstop Marty Marion came out on the short end of some statistical analysis, which Humphrey tried to address.

At third, Scott Rolen ranks sixth best all time, while Terry Pendleton comes in tenth. Ken Boyer ranked third among third baseman in the Transitional Era (1947-1968).

Vince Coleman and Lou Brock are considered liabilities in left field, according to Humphrey’s research, while Lonnie “Skates” Smith was actually on the plus side.

Stan Musial was a very solid left fielder, while his contemporary Ted Williams was one of the worst at the same position.

Brian Jordan was ranked the sixth best right fielder of all time, while Reggie Sanders was rated ninth.

Jim Edmonds was viewed very favorably defensively and deserves Hall of Fame consideration, according to Humphrey.

What may seem like heresy, Humphrey’s system finds Ozzie Smith behind Mark Belanger in the Modern Era, and just ahead of Garry Templeton, the much better hitter he replaced. On Humphrey’s all-time list, Smith ranks third.

If you are like me, you may not agree with some of Humphrey’s conclusions. But let me remind you, these are not his OPINIONS. They are his FINDINGS, based on statistically thorough, yet unbiased, mathematical processes.

Are you ready for Humphrey’s starting lineup of the greatest fielders of all time, based strictly on his statistical research?

C: Ivan Rodriguez
1B: Keith Hernandez
2B: Joe “Flash” Gordon
SS: Mark Belanger
3B: Brooks Robinson
LF: Rickey Henderson
CF: Andruw Jones
RF: Roberto Clemente

To piggy back off of last week’s column where I noted the Cardinals inability or maybe better said, hesitance, to play small ball the team embarks on a six game trip through the American League East. After the lack luster home stand showed that perhaps the Cardinals are not equipped for the NL game maybe this trip out east will show if perhaps they are built for the AL game. Somehow I doubt it. The St. Louis Cardinals are a team without a baseball identity and until they can commit to one style of play or the other the Cardinals will continue to linger in baseball purgatory. Worse yet, if management and the collective brain trust behind Ballpark Village cannot pick a direction for this team I fear every 3-4 years will be a roster turnover and more of the same.

There are a lot of quality players on this 2011 roster; the problem is that they can be divided into two groups. Those best suited to play in the NL and those maybe better off on an AL club. In this situation two halves do not necessarily make a whole. Adding to their identity crisis is manager Tony LaRussa, who cannot seem to make up his mind as to which style the Cardinals should play. Seemingly changing his strategy from series to series. We as fans and bloggers know what we see when watching a game so no facts, sabremetrics, percentages or other statistics will be used. That is for another article on another day. All statements within this column are based on the “eye-test” and common sense factors.

For as long as I can remember the breakdown was always speed and defense win games in the NL, power in the AL. Here is how it breaks down for the Cardinals. Theriot and Schumaker give away outs like free soup at a homeless shelter while Pujols and Molina when healthy are two of the best fielders in either league at their positions. If not for his glove Descalso would not be on the Major League roster, by the same token, if not for his bat neither would Allen Craig. The yin & yang of it goes on and on.

Based on the criteria above here is how I separate the two groups. In examining the roster I take into consideration any position player who has seen significant AB’s as either a regular or an off-the bench guy.

Albert Pujols	Ryan Theriot
Daniel Descalso	Allen Craig
Yadier Molina	Matt Holliday
Colby Rasmus	Lance Berkman
Skip Schumaker	David Freese
Jon Jay
*disclaimer players were assigned leagues based on where their skill levels I felt were best suited. Some of course could play in both

Finding a way to utilize both types of players requires good strategy and gamesmanship. Usually synonyms for how TLR has managed his teams. But for his part, these last few seasons TLR’s management of this miss-matched roster only makes the differences more apparent. He has players in Rasmus and Schumaker who are supposed to be good on the bases but doesn’t let them show it. To make it worse more often than not he bats them out of position. In yet another mystifying move, where a team should be sacrificing offense for defense the Cardinals do the opposite on a daily basis by continuing to run Theriot out to SS rather than moving him over to 2B.

The pieces are there and yes injuries have played a large role in the season’s results thus far. But the season is not lost, especially not in the NL Central. The sooner the Cardinals and Tony LaRussa decide which type of team they want to be for the remainder of 2011 the better the results will be.

As usual these are just my thoughts…if you’re smart you’ll most likely agree. If not keep on reading my articles and you’ll get up to speed.

Follow me on Twitter @SportsbyWeeze or check out my thoughts on the Rams at RamsHerd.com

Seeing, Hearing from Cardinals

Friend of the site Courtney with David Freese

Another benefit of player presence at the Winter Warm-Up is it gives fans a chance to interact with them for the first time since the end of the previous season. Is David Freese still limping? Has Lance Berkman really slimmed down? Whose new tattoo is better, Kyle Lohse or Chris Carpenter? It really is great to get a glimpse of the players before they head down to Spring Training.

But the Winter Warm-Up functions as the first barometer of how the team is shaping up for Spring Training, too. Many of the players and coaches who appeared at the event take some time to talk with the media before they head home for the rest of the winter. Physical impressions aside, the press conferences give players a chance to answer questions about the offseason, how they’re feeling, what they think about what the team has done (or not done) over the winter, and whatever other pertinent info the host of journalists in the room can come up with.

As is the case every season, the Cardinals’ starters must be healthy and on the field if the team is going to be successful. At the end of the 2010 season, Kyle Lohse was just starting to find himself after recovering from a forearm injury. David Freese had not been on the field in months after injuring both ankles. The team keeps the media up to date on how players progress through the offseason, but on this weekend they had to pass the “eye test” and offer updates in their own words.

Lohse feels he has less uncertainty going into this season. He has worked very hard to continue his rehab and be ready early for Spring Training. Lohse said he used to do forearm exercises as part of his workout routine a couple times per week; now he does them almost every day. He is not throwing off a mound yet, but he is testing the forearm by throwing “firm” yet not airing it out. He hopes to try to “overload it a little bit” in his upcoming pre-Spring Training bullpen sessions.

Freese has also had a long offseason of rehab. He is running, but not full speed and only in a straight line. He will go to Spring Training early; his plan is to be ready for the first preseason game and he has been told that will not be a problem if he keeps progressing like he is. Freese joked that if this was the NFL he thinks he would be listed as “probable.” He knows he can play in the big leagues, he just has to get healthy so he can get on the field and show everyone—coaches, players, fans—he can do it. “I can sit here and say this and say that, but the bottom line is I’ve got to get out there and perform,” Freese said.

Chris Reed is a freelance writer from Belleville, IL who also writes about the Cardinals for InsideSTL on Mondays and Bird Brained whenever he wants. Follow him on Twitter @birdbrained.