If there were any doubts the 2012 season was a lost cause for the Kansas City Royals, their 4-9 record and lackluster play after the All-Star break should erase it. The 12 game losing streak in April, injuries to key players, and the ineffectiveness of the starting rotation doomed the Royals 2012 season. The Royals are likely to suffer their ninth consecutive losing season and finish in fourth or fifth place in the American League Central. This is old news to Royals fans, but it doesn’t make it any easier to accept.

There’s still 65 games left in the 2012 season. The Royals have little hope making a playoff run, much less finishing around .500. Despite another lost season, there are some things to look forward to towards the trade deadline and the rest of the season.

The starting lineup is pretty much set and is looking good: Except for second base and right field, the rest of the lineup looks pretty good and they’re locked up for the next few years. The offense is showing more power and despite some defensive miscues in yesterday’s game against the Los Angeles Angels, the Royals defense is a bright spot.

The hopeful emergence of Eric Hosmer: His 2012 season so far is a disappointment, and Hosmer would likely be one of the first to agree. To salvage Hosmer’s season, the Royals moved him to eighth in the batting order. Hitting coach Kevin Seitzer is working on Hosmer’s approach at the plate, which is paying dividends. On June 23, Hosmer had a .213 average. In the last month, his average is up to .233.

The great play of Lorenzo Cain and Salvador Perez: What a case of what might have been for Cain and Perez. If the Royals had both players, or at least one of them for the season, the Royals might have a better win-loss record. Or maybe not. But it’s encouraging how Cain and Perez are playing after being out for almost half of the season. Now they need to stay healthy and play well the rest of the year and in 2013.

The Jonathan Sanchez/Jeremy Guthrie trade: I’m surprised the Royals were able to get anything for Sanchez. I figured Sanchez would clear waivers, refuse an assignment to AAA Omaha and become a free agent. But the Royals got Guthrie, who didn’t work out in Colorado. Guthrie’s start last Sunday didn’t inspire much confidence, but there’s a good chance he will pitch better than Sanchez.

The possible trades of Jeff Franceour, Yuni Betancourt, Jonathan Broxton and Jose Mijares: Of the four, Broxton is garnering the most interest. It’s unlikely the Royals will get a top of the rotation starter for any of these players, but they could get some solid prospects or Major League ready players.

A possible trade for a top of the rotation starter before the trade deadline: It could happen, however remote. If it does, the Royals will have to give up top prospects or perhaps one of their young players on the 25-man roster. Would the Royals trade someone like Hosmer for a top of the rotation starter that’s under team control for two to three years? It would be a big risk, given the fragility of pitchers and the superstar potential of Hosmer. But that may be what it takes for the Royals to gain a number one or two starter they desperately need.

The eventual arrival of Wil Myers and Jake Odorizzi: If or when Franceour is moved, Myers will join the Royals in right field. And it’s a matter of time before Odorizzi is called up and joins the starting rotation. Using the rest of the 2012 season to give them playing time will prepare them for the 2013 season and boost interest among Royals fans.

Of course there’s no guarantee 2013 will be any better than 2012. Key players could be injured, or the players the Royals get via free agency or a trade could flame out like Jonathan Sanchez. These are the Royals, after all. But the team is in better shape than they were a few years ago. There is always hope, because hope is all Royals fans have.

Are the 2012 Kansas City Royals a bad baseball team? This question that was asked frequently during the notorious twelve game losing streak. Because the losing streak happened so early in the season it is a legitimate question. I know the 2012 version of the Royals is not a good team. Good teams don’t go on twelve game losing streaks and have starting pitchers with ERAs above 7. However, does this Royals team have the potential to get near .500 like we anticipated in March? Or are we looking at another 100 loss season? There is only one place to find these answers: Baseball-Reference.

The Royals have had four 100 loss seasons in their history. Let’s see how the 2012 Royals would stack up if they were in a division with those four teams after 25 games:

Year W L GP GB
2002 8 17 25 -
2004 8 17 25 -
2012 8 17 25 -
2005 7 18 25 -1
2006 5 20 25 -3

As you can tell the 2012 Royals are in some bad company. You can tell me this team is more talented than those teams. You can tell me that their Pythagorean W-L shows a record of 10-15 and that the Royals have been “unlucky” so far this season. The team is playing better and has won 5 out of their last 8 since ending the losing streak. Including what I consider to be Mike Moustakas’ emergence as “player” on the major league level. Yes, injuries have been a major problem and I expect this team will play a lot better when Lorenzo Cain, Salvador Perez, and Felipe Paulino return from the disabled list. However, other major league teams have injury issues too. Even the 2005 Royals had a stretch from May 31st to Jun 16th where they won 11 of 15, including a 3 game sweep of the Yankees at Kauffman Stadium. I remember that sweep well; it was the highlight of that season.

The reality is this team has real pitching problems. It’s not like we didn’t know pitching could be an issue. It became apparent early last season that the pitching at the major league level and in the minors was not going to be enough open a “playoff” window anytime soon. It is such a major story line for me I wrote about it four times last season: here, here, here and here.

If the Royals are ever going to contend be a mediocre team instead of terrible they will need to add pitching. Danny Duffy has made some strides this season at becoming an ace pitcher this team needs. However, Duffy is just one pitcher. Felipe Paulino has shown some promise but a long way from a sure bet. I don’t see Bruce Chen or Luke Hochevar as long term solutions.

It’s frustrating that six years after Dayton Moore said “pitching is the currency of baseball” not much has improved among the starting rotation. There needs to be more pitching. Pitching is expensive whether you trade for it, or pay for it. The problem is, Even if ownership approves such a costly move, which is up for debate in the first place. I don’t have confidence in this front office to execute such a deal. Dayton Moore has been flat out schooled in trades at the major league level.

That is why I’m leaning toward this version of the Royals being a bad team. The glaring holes in the roster configuration have not been fixed from last year. Not to mention this team seems to lose focus a lot more than last year. I think the likelihood that this is another 100 loss season is greater than the Royals turning it around and getting near .500. The next question is, can the front office get enough pitching before it’s time for this young nucleus to chase their free agent contracts?

Edwin Jackson has pitched better than any reasonable expectation. His emergence has created a conundrum for Cardinals GM John Mozeliak. How does he build the 2012 Cardinal rotation?

A quick look at next year’s rotation shows four of the 5 slots already filled.

• Kyle Lohse is under contract and will make $11.875M.
• Jake Westbrook is under contract and will make $8.5M.
• Jamie Garcia is under contract and will make $3.25M.
• The Cardinals announced last week they will pick up Adam Wainwright‘s 2012 and 2013 options. Wainwright will work for $9M in 2012.

The two most likely pitchers to take the last slot are Jackson and Chris Carpenter. Jackson is a free agent at the end of the season. St Louis holds a club option on Carpenter, who they can either retain for $15M, or buy out for $1M.

Does Mozeliak sign Jackson, or pick up Carpenter’s option?

The Case for Carpenter. This is Carpenter’s eighth year in St Louis. His previous seven season run has been one of the best in baseball history. His 141 ERA+ average for his age 29-35 seasons is the tenth-highest since 1901. You may have heard of the guys ahead of him. He won the Cy Young award in 2005 and finished in the top 3 in CY voting on two other occasions (2006, 2009). Chris Carpenter has had a fabulous career with the Cardinals. He is, however, 36 this season, and has the well-documented history of arm trouble. Basically retaining Carpenter becomes a loyalty question, and a gamble. Does St Louis reward him for his years of superior service? How many pitches does he have left in that right arm?

The Case for Jackson. Jackson throws hard, averaging a mid-90s fastball. He gets a lot of ground ball outs, but also gives up a lot of line drives. His FIP- numbers are below average the past 3 seasons. Out of curiousity, I ran some numbers through Baseball Reference to see how Jackson’s career to date measures up historically. For those comps, I looked at players 28 or younger as of 30 June 2011, who have started 80% of their games (Jackson’s started 85% of his), thrown more than 1000 innings, have at least 100 decisions, and an ERA greater than 4.25. You can find the complete list here. It’s a pretty unremarkable set of names, and none of the guys on it became elite pitchers.

Jackson’s past performance does not prognosticate to a lot of future success. He likely will remain a slightly below average major league pitcher. Then again, Carpenter was 49-50 when he came to St Louis from Toronto and look how that turned out.

Politics. The elephant in the room listening to this discussion is, of course, Albert Pujols‘ impending free agency. Most (this writer included) think the Cardinals will have to break a bank to retain Pujols in 2012. The amount of money it will likely take to re-sign the first baseman – widely expected to be north of $25M a season – may necessitate declining Carpenter’s option and using that $14M to pay Pujols.

The other issue is the Colby Rasmus trade. If Mozeliak lets Jackson walk away, he will have traded an elite, young prospect playing a premium position for a left-handed relief pitcher (I have assumed that Octavio Dotel and Corey Patterson do not remain with the club past this season). That will not sit well with the fan base, nor should it. The Cardinals will have sold Rasmus for pennies on the dollar.

The four options open to Mozeliak are:

1. Pick up Carpenter’s option, wave good-bye to Jackson;
2. Decline Carpenter’s option, sign Jackson to a new deal;
3. Decline Carpenter’s option, try and re-sign him to a new deal at a lower price, let Jackson go;
4. Decline to sign either, insert someone from Memphis into the Cardinal rotation, use the money saved to sign other free agents.

It is a tough choice. I do not envy Mozeliak. Cardinal Nation looks forward to how this will play out.

Mike Metzger is a life-long Cardinals fan who currently blogs about the San Diego Padres. Follow him on Twitter @metzgermg.