Tag Archive | "Edwin Jackson"

What was the real point of the Rasmus trade?

It’s been two years since the St. Louis Cardinals suddenly dealt former uber-prospect Colby Rasmus to the Toronto Blue Jays mid-season for a host of pieces in return. And in the two years since that deal, the value of what’s come of the trade is still very much undetermined. There are some that say the deal was what sealed the 2011 World Series win, while others feel it was a necessary move to salvage the remaining value of Rasmus’ quickly dipping stock at the time. Yet the truth of the matter probably lays somewhere in-between, and the absolute value of how the Cardinals have emerged is on the verge of being a potential loss in the long-term.

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At the beginning of the 2011 season, Rasmus was a troubled, yet still integral part of the future of the team. He was the former top prospect of the organization as little as two years prior, and was just a year removed from a 23 home run breakout effort. Yet, that seemed like decades ago by the time the trade of him away was necessitated. The triangle of issues created between Colby/Tony Rasmus, Tony LaRussa and ultimately John Mozeliak, pushed Rasmus away from being a coveted talent, and into the problem child bin, and regardless of talent, problem children don’t get the same returns as promising talents do. So Mozeliak made a July trade to send Rasmus away in exchange for Edwin Jackson, Octavio Dotel, Corey Patterson and Marc Rzepczynski, his stock had gotten to the point where it was just good to get anything back in return for him.

Of all of the acquisitions made in that deal, the then25-year-old lefty made the biggest difference in the club’s playoff and postseason run, and set up a solid basis of what to expect coming ahead. This was of particular importance as well, because he was the only part of the deal that had any guaranteed time with the team after 2011. Regardless of what Rasmus’ actual production was, he still carried a decent amount of name value and upside perception, so to come away from that deal with only a middle relief left-hander, that pitcher better surely become among the best at what he does. However, the year and a half since Rzepczynski has been a full-time Cardinal has been perhaps less fulfilling than any part of Rasmus’ on-field run.

Since the beginning of 2012, in 79 games, Rzepczynski has posted a 1-3 record, with a 4.77 ERA in 54.2 innings. His WHIP across that time has been a robust 1.44, and he has surrendered better than a hit per inning pitched. In fairness, he shouldered an inadequate amount of the load a year ago, as the only consistently available left-handed option, as the team went through a carousel of veteran flame outs around him. Yet, this season he’s struggled more than ever, posting a 7.88 ERA and surrendering a run in four of his nine appearances, with at least two in three of those efforts in an inning or less work. Overall, batters have hit .361 against him on the season, and that will not do in the leverage of the situations he’s called upon (or really any other either, at that), and yesterday, just a year and a half after being the promise received in return for promise dealt, Rzepczynski found himself headed towards a place he hadn’t been to since 2010: the minors.

In the first move to shake some life into the team’s lifeless bullpen, the club optioned him to Memphis in exchange for the 2011 organizational pitcher of the year, Seth Maness. This is a shocking move, whereas in it didn’t seem likely that the team would put itself voluntarily down to one left-handed reliever, but it also sends a message: get it done, or you’re replaceable. There’s a chance he won’t stay down for long, just enough time to rediscover what he lost along the way. There’s also the chance that he becomes a victim of the ever-emergent depth of arms converging on the Cardinals pitching staff from the minors. This is not a team to fall behind in fortune with, because there is always somebody who is pushing for a chance. It likely isn’t a death sentence for him, but it definitely will serve notice to anybody on the staff that is struggling.

All in all, looking back it’s tough to say what is what about the absolute outcome of the Rasmus/Blue Jays deal. What is clear is that something had to be done in the moment, and that the outcome of it did improve the team at the absolutely right moment. Despite popular opinion, it’s not THE move that won the World Series for the club; seasons like that don’t hinge on one moment. However, it did play a role in that moment, and with the after effect as it is shaking out around the only remaining part of the deal so soon after it was completed, perhaps it was the ultimate all-in maneuver for the moment.

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The Top 5 Moves by Mozeliak

Last Thursday, the Cardinals ensured that perhaps the most crucial brick its foundation would remain in place. The club reached an agreement with general manager John Mozeliak to a three-year contract extension that will carry him through the 2016 season, which will be his ninth serving the team in his current capacity.

John Mozeliak

During those nine years, he has guided the team through two crucial restructure phases, both built around World Series victories. The first came when he assumed his role after the 2006 victory and former GM Walt Jocketty departing for the Cincinnati Reds, and the second after the 2011 season and the departure of both manager Tony LaRussa and three-time MVP Albert Pujols.

Yet throughout these times, the team’s overall roster has continued to improve. Due to a combination of smart Major League level moves and a reinvestment in the minor league system, building resurrecting it from the among the most depleted to one that has been ranked the best in baseball entering 2013. While his place in St. Louis is secured, Mozeliak is facing yet another crucial turning point in equipping the team to continue to keep its relevance. Adam Wainwright’s pending free agency and extension negotiations are the top order of personnel business for him. This would be one of the signature moments of his career, keeping the club’s top arm in tow for likely the rest of his career.

It is a good opportunity to reflect on the most signature moments of his tenure, which has both seen bold moves, as well as some notable concessions.

 

5. Trading Colby Rasmus, Trevor Miller and Brian Tallet to the Toronto Blue Jays for Edwin Jackson, Marc Rzepczynski, Corey Patterson and Octavio Dotel

This was a trade that had to be done, yet was still slightly stunning when it happened in July 2011. Rasmus had been long hailed as the club’s future franchise player, but his explosive relationship with LaRussa, then the fans, made it a must that a change be made. Mo made it the first big move that turned around that season for the club, and received back plenty of strategic depth. Edwin Jackson stabilized the starting rotation and Octavio Dotel was a crucial late inning veteran. Rzepczynski was a revelation in the playoffs that season, posting a 1.26 ERA over the NLCS and World Series.

4. Trading Jim Edmonds to the San Diego Padres for David Freese

Edmonds was one of the great Cardinals of all-time, a six-time Gold Glove winner in the Busch Stadium outfield and a fan favorite for eight seasons. But by the winter of 2007, he was in his decline coming off a season where he struggled to hit .252 and hadn’t played in over 120 games in two years. It’s always tough to trade a franchise cornerstone, and when Mo dealt him for a 24 year old that was still in Single-A in 2007. Although he had hit .307 with 96 RBI the previous season, it was still a considered a reach at the time. Freese responded by jumping Double-A completely, and responded by taking the regular reins at third base for the big league club just two years later. This transaction has gone on to represent the first of Mo’s string of moves dedicated to building through the minor leagues for future MLB payout.

3. Trading Brett Wallace, Clayton Mortensen and Shane Peterson to the Oakland A’s for (and subsequent resigning of) Matt Holliday.

In the post-Edmonds and Scott Rolen days of 2009, Albert Pujols had been left to carry far too much of the offensive load for the team. In his first blockbuster move, Mo pulled the trigger on a deal based around the team’s top prospect at the time in Wallace for Holliday. Wallace had hit .311 while rapidly rising through the Cardinal organization since being made the 13th overall pick in the 2008 draft. However, he wasn’t truly a fit at the MLB level in STL, and his high regard as a prospect made him an ideal trade chip. Holliday on the other hand, was a high priced rental in Oakland with an expiring contract. The Cardinals needed a bat, Oakland wanted more youth as usual. It was a match made in heaven.

Holliday went on to hit .353 after the trade, helping to push the team into the playoffs. However, the concern was that the team wouldn’t be able to keep off the Yankees or Red Sox to keep him in town. However, Mo aggressively finished out the high stakes dealings with acquiring Holliday by inking him to a seven-year, $120 million deal. It remains the largest in team history, and also a move that showed much needed foresight, due to a future for the organization he likely had already envisioned looming…

2. Not resigning Albert Pujols

Not being able to retain a player of the status of Pujols never sounds like it could be a tally in the great accomplishments list of a GM. Yet in the case of the departure of Pujols in December 2011, it was high mark in Mozeliak’s tenure for the shear boldness and overall organization insight in showed. If the Cardinals had issued a 10 year deal at over $200 million to Pujols, it would have effectively killed the ability to retain any depth for the club over the next decade. Deals for Adam Wainwright and Yadier Molina would have been impossible, and staying competitive when Freese, Allen Craig, Jon Jay, Jason Motte and virtually any other player hit the open market. By refusing to do the big move in the moment, he set up the future.

1. Resigning Yadier Molina

The concern after the loss of Pujols was that Molina wouldn’t be far behind. Amongst the fan base, there were murmurs of the Cardinals not willing to put up the money to keep its cornerstones intact. In the whirlwind of changes that happened leading into the 2012 season, an extension for Molina was a priority, and one he delivered on. Yadi’s five-year, $75 million deal kept the club’s new most valuable player in tow and showed the team was prepared to spend where it needed to. It was a calming signing for both team and fans, and showed Mo’s grasp on the big picture is always on point.

 

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St. Louis Cardinals need Octavio Dotel-type reliever for pennant race

The St. Louis Cardinals entered play Sunday with a 46-41 record, just one game behind their record at this point last season. To make a late-season run this year similar to 2011, the Cardinals will need to add some experienced arms in the bullpen.

The Cardinals sent Colby Rasmus to the Toronto Blue Jays on July 27 last year as part of a three-team trade that gave the Cardinals three critical pieces of their championship team: starting pitcher Edwin Jackson, and relievers Marc Rzepczynski and Octavio Dotel.

Jackson started some critical games for the Cardinals in the second half of the season, and Rzepcysnki provided needed lefthanded relief to neutralize potent left-handed hitters such as Prince Fielder and Ryan Howard. However, the most important part of that group that is no longer with the team is Dotel.

Dotel, who now pitches for the Detroit Tigers, filled the role Julian Tavarez played for the Cardinals in 2004 National League championship and Braden Looper pitched in relief for the 2006 World Series championship team. Unfortunately, the Cardinals don’t have a pitcher similar to Dotel in their bullpen this year.

The team may have hoped Scott Linebrink would fill that role this year, but he got hurt in Spring Training and the Cardinals released him before he ever threw a pitch in the 2012 regular season. Now they have a group of 20-somethings that are pitching as typical 20-something pitchers without much experience.

Sure, much of that group pitched well during last year’s playoff run, but they also had a veteran leader in Dotel. He not only pitched well with a 3.28 ERA as a Cardinal, but he also provided leadership for the inexperienced bullpen. His absence has left a huge void in this year’s bullpen.

Victor Marte, 31, is the oldest of the group, but he is in his first full season is not ready to lead a group of other pitchers. Jason Motte, 30, has 20 saves this year and finished off the World Series last year, but he still has issues of his own, which include finding a reliable second pitch that he can throw with confidence.

The bullpen’s lack of experience has shown up in the numbers this year, as well. The Cardinals have a 4.49 bullpen ERA, which is 25th in the majors.

Manager Mike Matheny has grasped at straws in Memphis by bringing up Eduardo Sanchez and Sam Freeman, but both have looked overmatched and should stay in Memphis for the rest of the year. If Motte created nail-biting moments last year, just imagine Freeman pitching in an important game late in the year or in the playoffs. Those would be heart-attack inducing innings.

So, as the trading deadline approaches, the Cardinals have been linked to starting pitchers such as Brewers starter Zack Greinke, but they need to look toward pitchers who can throw key innings late in a game rather than the first six or seven innings.

Sure, the starting rotation is fragile with Chris Carpenter and Jaime Garcia on the disabled list, but Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly provide much more stability in their roles than Fernando Salas or Mitchell Boggs do in their bullpen roles.

Plus, a veteran reliever will likely be a cheaper find than a front-line starter who may or may not test the free agent market in the offseason.

Looking back, the Cardinals would have been wise to pursue Dotel a little more aggressively. Hopefully they get a second chance at a similar pitcher later this month.

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Keeping It All In Check

The day has finally arrived. Pitchers and Catchers are required to report to Spring Training Saturday with the first official workouts of the preseason scheduled for Sunday. Anticipation is high, and so are expectations. The St. Louis Cardinals’ 2012 season and the defense of their World Series Championship begin now. But don’t forget some of the lessons that 2011 team taught us.

Just a few days into the 2011 Spring Training campaign, the Cards lost Adam Wainwright for the season. Wainwright was the team’s de facto ace. He looked like a lock for better than 200 IP, better than 200 K, and another sub-3.00 ERA but it vanished just like that. With him, the Cardinals were a team that looked to be in the mix atop a crowded NL Central. Without him, well…how does a team replace that kind of production and become a winner?

By the end of October 2011, it was a distant memory.

Just a few games into the 2011 regular season, Ryan Franklin looked to be finished. The Cards’ closer looked like anything but; he was as ineffective as ineffective could be. It wasn’t long—though many would probably argue it was still too long—before he was benched, and then sent packing before the season had reached the All Star Break. So not only had the Cards ventured into the season without their ace, but they then were going through a revolving door in the ninth inning too.

But by the end of October 2011, that also seemed like eons ago.

Just before the trade deadline, GM John Mozeliak moved the enigmatic Colby Rasmus, two lefty relievers in Brian Tallet and Trever Miller, and the perennially underperforming PJ Walters to the Toronto Blue Jays for Edwin Jackson, Octavio Dotel, Mark Rzepczynski, and Corey Patterson. Over the next couple of weeks, Mozeliak would also sign journeyman lefty Arthur Rhodes and trade minor leaguer Alex Castellanos to the LA Dodgers for Rafael Furcal. In all, the Cards turned over six players on their roster and, at the time, only one (Rzepczynski) was under team control beyond the end of the season. Talk of “win-now mode” ran in parallel with suggestions of not getting enough for Rasmus and betting on aging, short-term talent.

Does anyone want do-overs on any of those moves now?

On August 25, 2011 the Cardinals were 10.5 games out of the playoffs. On October 28, 2011 they became World Series Champions.

The lessons here are plenty. Injuries happen, but they are not the end of the world. Don’t give up on the team because of one loss, whether on the field or off it. Also, don’t give up on a team until they are truly, completely, 100% eliminated. Trust that the people getting paid to make big, difficult decisions about the team actually know what they are doing. Sometimes players work out, sometimes they don’t…but they all deserve a chance to make it happen. Baseball has no clock—so until they make their 27th out, any team has a chance…even down to their last strike (twice). Unless your house is on fire or a family member is dying, never ever EVER leave (or turn off) the game early. Because it ain’t over until it’s over, and anything is possible, and as long as they mathematically have a chance, the St. Louis Cardinals can repeat as World Champions in 2012. After what we all witnessed last year, no argument to the contrary holds water.

It begins now.

Chris Reed also writes for InsideSTL Mondays and Bird Brained whenever he feels like it. Follow him on Twitter at @birdbrained.

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(Draft) Picky, Picky

After Edwin Jackson inked a new deal with the Washington Nationals, the St. Louis Cardinals now sit pretty with five of the first 60 picks in this year’s amateur draft. With that many selections so early, the Cards should be in good position to fortify organizational needs.

 

Every MLB team shows time and again that the ultimate weapon to wield is depth. It doesn’t even matter where the depth is—positions on the field, rotation, bullpen, lineup, bench—the more quality players a team and a franchise has, the better their chances of making it to and through October baseball.

Take a look at the 2011 Cards’ bullpen as a prime example: at the beginning of the season, Ryan Franklin was the closer. By the ninth inning of Game Seven of the World Series, the closer (or ninth inning man…whatever, Tony La Russa) was Jason Motte. In between was a closer rotation consisting of Fernando Salas, Eduardo Sanchez and Mitchell Boggs. Lance Lynn made it to the big club and had a huge impact in the ‘pen. Kyle McClellan started and then pitched relief. Arthur Rhodes. Mark Rzepczynski. The list is long, but the story was clear…the Cards’ bullpen depth was one of their greatest strengths through the end of the regular season and into the playoffs. Just look at how they were used in the postseason. If that group falters, the Cards are done. But they held up, and the team kept advancing.

A long-standing credo states “You can never have enough pitching.” And that’s true, to a large extent. But one of the many things the Cards proved in 2011 amends that theory. It should really state “You can never have enough up the middle,” including catcher, pitcher, middle infield, and center field. Those zones are the ones that rely most heavily on defense, and by deepening those positions the Cardinals are likely to enjoy success for years to come.

Again, the 2011 team is a prime example of this theory in action. At the beginning of the year, the Cards had Colby Rasmus in center field and Ryan Theriot at shortstop. But John Mozeliak strengthened the pitching staff by sending Rasmus to Toronto and filled up a leaky shortstop position by acquiring Rafael Furcal. These may not have been foreseeable moves early in the season, but they were very necessary in building the 2011 World Series Champion.

Overall, the Cards showed how important organizational depth can be in 2011. When a player went down to injury, or a defensive substitution was needed, or a big out had to be secured on the mound, it seemed like another Cards’ farmhand was stepping in to take the reins. And it would be nice to know that if any problems at all creep up in the middle of the field, a capable player waits in the wings to get a chance to prove his worth to the Cardinal organization. Finding those players starts with the draft.

The Cards do have some promising Middle Field players coming into their own already. Jon Jay obviously has the most credentials of any position player. Daniel Descalso and Tyler Greene look to challenge Skip Schumaker for the starting role at second base. Tony Cruz and Bryan Anderson will be the favorites to back up Yadier Molina in 2012. And prospects Kolten Wong (2B) and Ryan Jackson (SS) look to get a chance to open some eyes fairly soon.

But it’s not enough. It’s never enough. The Cards need to take these extra draft picks and concentrate on the middle of the field. They need to look at center fielders with gazelle legs, cannon arms, and live bats. They need to look at middle infielders with magnetic gloves and impressive hitting stats. And pitching…well, a team can never have enough pitching. You pick often in 2012, Cardinals. Please pick wisely.

Chris Reed also writes for InsideSTL Mondays and Bird Brained whenever he feels like it. Follow him on Twitter @birdbrained.

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2012 Royals Potpourri I

Until the Royals open the 2012 Season I will start each article with important statistics: 16 Days until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training. 30 Days until Cactus League play starts. 62 Days until Opening Day (I guess night, late night). On to the article. I’m impressed that I made it this far into the off-season without having to resort to this. I have three thoughts on the Royals, but none of them long enough to create an entire article. So here is 2012’s first Royals Potpourri:

Silence From the Front Office – Coming into this week, Edwin Jackson & Roy Oswalt were the two remaining free agent starting pitchers that anyone feels can make a difference. Roy Oswalt has been covered here. I’m confident Oswalt would not have come to Kansas City based on his public statements of not wanting to go to Cleveland or Detroit. That left Edwin Jackson, who signed with the Washington Nationals this week.

I did not think Dayton Moore was going to sign either of these pitchers. That doesn’t mean I was hopeful of some surprising un-fiscal responsibility from the Royals front office. I get why the Royals are waiting to see what they have in Mike Montgomery, Danny Duffy, and Felipe Paulino. That’s the most cost effective way to go. If all three take steps forward this season, which is optimistic. The Royals still need to spend some money or prospects to get a front line starter if they want to have prayer of getting past Detroit in the AL Central. If all three flame out it will be time to call for an end to “The Process”. It’s something to keep an eye on. Especially if the Royals get off to a good start this season.

Royals: You’re Doing it Wrong!Bob Dutton had an article in the Kansas City Star this week listing possible replacements for Frank White as the Royals television Color Commentator. It seems the leading candidate is former big league, and Angels Broadcaster Rex Hudler. I’ve heard Rex on Jim Rome’s show a few times. I like him in the interview setting. He’s kind of goofy, and brings the motivational speaker cheese. That’s fine for a radio interview every few months. I have a feeling if I had to listen to that shtick game, after game, after game that it would get old by Tax Day. If Rex Hudler is Frank White’s replacement I will have to mute or turn off the television and let Boulevard Brewing Company sell it’s beer to me on it’s own merits. Some baseball blogs contend that Hudler is one of the worst commentators in Major League Baseball.

I’m becoming more irritated with this situation knowing that Rockies Commentator George Frazier didn’t get the job. I used to live in Denver and always enjoyed Frazier as part of the Rockies broadcast. I think he would have been an improvement over White. I know that’s blasphemy in Royals Nation, but that’s just how I feel.

But, let me redeem myself. I have been on the fence about the whole Frank White firing. There are two sides to every story, and we’ll never hear the Royals side. However, the Royals organization does not have a good track record of doing things right. Until they start consistently doing that I’m going to assume they’re doing things wrong. Firing a living legend and ambassador for your organization; then bringing in a person who many feel is not very good at that role seems like the wrong thing to do. Cancelling Fanfast was doing it wrong too. I would expect this type of Public Relations indifference out of a winning organization whose games and merchandise are in high demand. The Royals have not been a model franchise since Bob Saget was rocking a Giants warm-up jacket on Full House.

Last season the Royals finally gained some credibility with their fan base with the infusion of prospects from their minor league system. Then they do the dumb stuff mentioned above. I’m not going to rant and rave and say I’m going to quit being a Royals fan. I’ve been over that before. However, the Royals organization isn’t compelling me to spend more money with them than I had already budgeted.

Can We Get This Over With? – In case this got passed you. The Super Bowl is tomorrow. Baseball is my favorite sport, football is a close second. However, this Super Bowl is so un-compelling to me I’ve thought about not watching it. No one close to me would believe that statement, so I’ll probably watch.

There is only so much you can say about a three hour football game. I’ve gone on a sports media black-out this week to avoid Evangelical Football Fan Hyperbole. However, the biggest reason I can’t wait for the Super Bowl to be over? Baseball Season is the next thing on the horizon.

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Edwin Jackson Joins Washington Nationals

The late blooming free agent market is beginning to produce contracts, this time in the form of a one year deal between Edwin Jackson and the Washington Nationals.

Many fans will remember that Edwin Jackson joined the St. Louis Cardinals in a mid-summer trade that sent Colby Rasmus to the Toronto Blue Jays.  That trade, at the time, seemingly divided Cardinal Nation on the opinion of what the team was hoping to accomplish.

The critics of the trade felt the Cardinals were going all in for 2012 and paying too high of a price.  At the heart of the deal was Rasmus, considered by many to be a budding star who simply could not get along with manager Tony LaRussa.  Rasmus was part of the future in St. Louis as far as fans were concerned.  Edwin Jackson, Octavio Dotel, and Corey Patterson were rent-a-players that proved this franchise was only looking at the current season.  The evidence to support this argument is mounting as all three players have now moved on.

Cardinal Nation seems slow to accept the fact that General Manager John Mozeliak has instituted a new regime, and a new strategy, towards building this club.  The players that were returned for Rasmus, Trever Miller, P.J. Walters and Brian Tallet did exactly what they were designed to do: they helped win in 2012 and build for the future.  All thanks to the free agency system as we know it.

The key part to the trade from the Cardinals side was Marc Rzepczynski, a left handed relief pitcher that may well find his way into the rotation some day.  In addition, those pieces that helped win in 2012 became ranked free agents, delivering the Cardinals with supplemental draft picks in this year’s amateur draft in exchange for their services on other teams.

Jackson reached an agreement with the Nationals this afternoon on a one year contract that, at this time, has not had the financial terms disclosed.  Jackson will anchor a young, yet strong, starting rotation in Washington that also features a returning phenom in Steven Strasburg.

Year Tm W L ERA G GS CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB SO WHIP SO/BB
2003 LAD 2 1 2.45 4 3 0 0 22.0 17 6 6 2 11 19 1.273 1.73
2004 LAD 2 1 7.30 8 5 0 0 24.2 31 20 20 7 11 16 1.703 1.45
2005 LAD 2 2 6.28 7 6 0 0 28.2 31 22 20 2 17 13 1.674 0.76
2006 TBD 0 0 5.45 23 1 0 0 36.1 42 27 22 2 25 27 1.844 1.08
2007 TBD 5 15 5.76 32 31 1 1 161.0 195 116 103 19 88 128 1.758 1.45
2008 TBR 14 11 4.42 32 31 0 0 183.1 199 91 90 23 77 108 1.505 1.40
2009 DET 13 9 3.62 33 33 1 0 214.0 200 93 86 27 70 161 1.262 2.30
2010 TOT 10 12 4.47 32 32 1 1 209.1 214 111 104 21 78 181 1.395 2.32
2010 ARI 6 10 5.16 21 21 1 1 134.1 141 80 77 13 60 104 1.496 1.73
2010 CHW 4 2 3.24 11 11 0 0 75.0 73 31 27 8 18 77 1.213 4.28
2011 TOT 12 9 3.79 32 31 1 1 199.2 225 92 84 16 62 148 1.437 2.39
2011 CHW 7 7 3.92 19 19 1 1 121.2 134 55 53 8 39 97 1.422 2.49
2011 STL 5 2 3.58 13 12 0 0 78.0 91 37 31 8 23 51 1.462 2.22
9 Seasons 60 60 4.46 203 173 4 3 1079.0 1154 578 535 119 439 801 1.476 1.82
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 2/2/2012.

The Nationals take a very calculated gamble with Jackson.  Should he continue to produce the way he has in his career, he will benefit the team and quite likely become a ranked free agent next off season, landing them a draft pick as well.  Jackson, on the other hand, looks towards the winter of 2012 to provide him, hopefully, with a greater chance at a much larger contract.

The Cardinals took their gamble last July.  It might just pay off.

Bill Ivie is the editor here at I-70 Baseball as well as the Assignment Editor for BaseballDigest.com.
He is the host of I-70 Radio, hosted every week on BlogTalkRadio.com.
Follow him on Twitter here.

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The Royals Give Stand Pat A Chance To Play In 2012

Kansas City Royals fans are long suffering. No Royals playoff appearances since 1985, their last winning season in 2003 and three consecutive 100 loss seasons from 2004-2006 can wear down a fan, no matter how faithful.

But the 2012 season has promise mixed with cautious optimism. With 12 rookies debuting in 2011 and only being nine games out of second place in the American League Central, the Royals hope to improve on their 71-91 2011 season.

For the past few years, the Royals and General Manager Dayton Moore said the team should start to contend in 2012, telling fans to trust “The Process.” When the team’s slogan for this season is “Our Time,” it appears the Royals believe 2012 is the year they might contend.

But do the Royals really believe they will contend this year? If you go by their off-season free agent signings and trades, one could say “maybe.” If the Royals thought they had a chance to win the AL Central, you might think the team would make a big splash in the free agent market or make a trade, especially for starting pitching. Instead, the Royals traded for a back of the rotation pitcher in Jonathan Sanchez, signed relievers Jonathan Broxton and Jose Mijares and some infielder named Yuni. It was more of a drop than a splash.

The Royals have a solid lineup and bullpen, but having a front of the rotation starter would give the team an opportunity to win more games. But it will likely take 90 or more victories to win the AL Central, which means the Royals would have to win at least 20 more games than last season. By itself, adding an Edwin Jackson, Roy Oswalt or trading for a front of the rotation starter will not win the team 20 or more games.

A lot will have to go right if the Royals have any chance of winning the AL Central. And some 2003 season kind of luck would help too. The team is better, especially compared to Royals teams from the last several years. But if fans are honest with themselves, the Royals are not as good as baseball powers like the Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, Philadelphia Phillies, Tampa Bay Rays, Detroit Tigers, Anaheim Angels and the Texas Rangers. At least not yet.

The Royals have many exciting, young players who have the ability to win ballgames. Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas are well known, but players like pitchers Felipe Paulino, Greg Holland and catcher Salvador Perez had a good 2011 and could improve in 2012. Outfielder Lorenzo Cain and infielders Johnny Giavotella and Alicdes Escobar have a chance to contribute this season. Let’s not forget Royals “veterans” Alex Gordon, Jeff Francoeur, Billy Butler, Luke Hochevar, Bruce Chen and Joakim Soria. And prospects like pitchers Mike Montgomery, Chris Dwyer and Jake Odorizzi have a chance to make their 2012 Major League debuts. And except for Chen, every player mentioned is under 30 years old.

It appears the Royals looked at their Major League roster, their prospects in the Minors and the free agent class this off-season and decided they couldn’t make big moves without mortgaging the future or significantly raising payroll. With the weak free agent starting pitching class this off-season and what prospects some teams had to give up to get the players they wanted, one could argue there was little reason for the Royals to sign a free agent pitcher or give up top prospects for starting pitching. Especially when the Royals have so many good young players of their own. And the only way they can get better is to play.

The 2012 season will be one of the most important seasons in the Royals 43 year history. This year will decide if the Royals are for real and compete in the future or a mirage like the Royals teams of the last 10-15 years. The Glass family, Dayton Moore and Manager Ned Yost will place their faith in a “player” called Stand Pat. If he’s good, the Royals could have a bright future. If he’s not, the Royals could be spending more time in the baseball wilderness and Royals fans will have to suffer a little longer.

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Cards Avoid Arbitration With McClellan

St. Louis, MO., January 17, 2012 – The St. Louis Cardinals announced today that righthanded pitcher Kyle McClellan has agreed to terms on a one-year contract with the club, thus avoiding salary arbitration.  Financial terms of the deal are not disclosed.

McClellan, 27, split his time between starter and reliever in 2011.  in 17 starts he accumulated a 6-6 record with a 4.21 ERA and was 6-1 in 26 relief appearances.  McClellan stepped into the starting rotation after a pre-season injury to Adam Wainwright and stayed in that role until the Cardinals traded for pitcher Edwin Jackson at the trade deadline.

A St. Louis native and first-round pick of the Cardinals in 2002, McClellan has four years of service with the club after making his Major League debut in 2008.  He has a 19-22 record with St. Louis, with a 3.61 ERA in 245 games, 17 starts.

Pitcher Jason Motte is the only arbitration eligible player to remain unsigned.

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The Belle Of The 2012 Major League Ball

Remember high school dances? Times of teenage angst, puppy love, hormones and awkwardness? Imagine the 30 Major League teams as girls and a Major League baseball season as a high school dance. Every girl there wants to be the Belle of the 2012 Major League Ball, the winner of the World Series.

See the girl in the corner, wearing a powder blue dress and her hair done up just so? That’s Miss Kansas City Royals. She isn’t the richest, prettiest or most popular girl, and for many years the poor thing was the wallflower of the Major League Ball, not living up to her potential.

But if you look closer, there’s something different about Miss Royals this year. She’s become younger, more confident, attractive and now she’s getting more attention. She’s feeling more optimistic about her chances at the 2012 Major League Ball.

And while Miss Royals is optimistic, she wouldn’t mind a top of the rotation starting pitcher to improve her chances. Yes, she could trade for a starting pitcher, but a free agent pitcher means she doesn’t have to surrender any prospects. And this year Miss Royals has some money to spend.

Using a few statistical metrics, I’ll compare the 2011 Royals starting rotation to free agent pitchers Edwin Jackson, Roy Oswalt, Hiroki Kuroda and Paul Maholm.

For the sake of comparison, I’m going to mash the 2011 Royals starting rotation into one pitcher. This “pitcher” would have a rounded average of 6 wins and 10 losses with a .375 winning percentage, 138 average innings pitched a season and a 4.96 ERA. He would give up one home run, throw 6.5 strikeouts and give up 3.2 walks per nine innings.

Let’s take a look at four free agent pitchers who could take Miss Royals by the hand and escort her to the dance floor.

Edwin Jackson:


For now, this is the guy most Royals fans wants Miss Royals to dance with. The 28-year-old right-hander has a 60-60 career win-loss record which makes him a .500 pitcher. Since establishing himself in 2007, he’s pitched an average of 193 innings a season and posted a 4.41 average ERA. Jackson has a 1.0 home run, 6.7 strikeout and 3.7 walk ratio per nine innings. Compared to the 2011 Royals starting rotation, Jackson gives up the same amount of home runs, has slightly more strikeouts and walks slightly more batters per nine innings.

Some compare Jackson to John Danks, who just signed a five-year, $65 million extension with the Chicago White Sox. Jackson would like a five-year, $60 million deal. At 28, Jackson could get better, or he could get worse. If the Royals get creative with a contract and the money and years are right, Edwin Jackson could be a good dance partner for Miss Royals.

Roy Oswalt:


When Oswalt was looking for a three-year deal earlier in the off-season, Miss Royals figured she had little chance getting the 34-year-old right-hander from Mississippi. But since Oswalt is willing to sign a one-year deal, there could be a chance, despite interest from a lot of other girls (teams). Over 11 seasons, Oswalt complied a 159-93 win-loss record, giving him a .631 winning percentage. An average of 196 innings pitched per season and a career 3.21 ERA over 11 seasons is also attractive. Oswalt has a 0.8 home run, 7.3 strikeout and 2.1 walk ratio per nine innings. Compared to the 2011 Royals starting rotation, Oswalt gives up less home runs, throws more strikes and gives up less walks per nine innings.

But Oswalt had back trouble last year and the Philadelphia Phillies decided to decline his $16 million option. There is risk getting a guy on the rebound (Jeff Francis, anyone?) and Miss Royals would have to pay Oswalt a lot of money to dance with her. But Oswalt might provide enough wins to allow the Royals to contend in 2012. If Oswalt is a bust, the Royals are only out for a year of salary and they can go for another free agent pitcher in 2013. Roy Oswalt provides a high risk/high reward.

Hiroki Kuroda:


The Los Angeles Dodgers jilted Kuorda after 2011 and there are rumblings the 36-year-old right-hander will go back to Japan if he can’t find an East or West Coast dancing partner. Unless there’s a cataclysmic earthquake and Kansas City becomes the new Los Angeles, Kuroda is a long shot for the Royals. His 41-46 career win-loss record and .471 winning percentage over four seasons isn’t anything spectacular. Over four seasons, Kuroda averaged 139 innings pitched per season with a 3.45 career ERA. Kuroda has a 0.8 home run, 6.7 strikeout and 2.1 walk ratio per nine innings. Compared to the 2011 Royals starting rotation, Kuroda gives up slightly less home runs, throws the same amount of strikes and gives up one less walk per nine innings.

Unless Hiroki Kuroda gets off his East or West Coast high horse and is willing to take a one-year deal, Miss Royals is better off finding another suitor.

Paul Maholm:


The 29-year-old soft tossing left-hander has spent his career with the Pirates, which gives him a 53-73 win-loss record and .421 winning percentage. Maholm averaged 163 innings pitched per season and a 4.36 ERA. Maholm has a 0.8 home run, 5.5 strikeout and 3.0 walk ratio per nine innings. Compared to the 2011 Royals starting rotation, Maholm gives up slightly less home runs, throws less strikes and gives up slightly less walks per nine innings.

Maholm missed the last six weeks of the 2011 season with a strained left shoulder, which made the Pirates decline his $9.75 million option. Maholm is healthy, but he doesn’t have the value of a Edwin Jackson, Roy Oswalt, or even Hiroki Kuroda. Most baseball pundits have Paul Maholm as a back of the rotation pitcher, which the Royals have plenty of.

Kyle Davies:


Just kidding. Not in a million years. Even Miss Royals isn’t that desperate. Wait, she did take back Yuni Betancourt.

So will Miss Kansas City Royals be able to snag one of these suitors and perhaps be the Cinderella story of the 2012 Major League Ball? Or will she dance with who she brought, hoping she doesn’t fall flat on her face? At least she has a pretty powder blue dress.

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