I wrote this article for school. We were not allowed to do any research, hence the significant lack of numbers. Leave a comment and I will revise it so there are more stats.

The Kansas City Royals pitching staff was horrific this past season, with Luke Hochevar and his 5.39 ERA, and Jonathan Sanchez giving up 7 runs in 1 1/3 innings to the Mariners. I have a proposition, which will hopefully make the Royals 2013 season the first memorable one since 1985. This would be an anomaly, as the Royals have the longest playoff drought in any professional sport since fifteen years before I was born. Being a Royals fan is difficult, as you have to get accustomed to losing. But if Dayton Moore, the Royals General Manager, would consider these ideas, the Royals may win what is expected to be the worst division in baseball in 2013.

The Royals need starting pitching. Anibal Sanchez is their best option. Sanchez started the 2012 season with the Miami Marlins, who traded him to the Detroit Tigers at the trading deadline. He struggled out of the gate, but picked it up and had a fantastic end of the season. His great performance spilled into the postseason, where he dominated the Oakland A’s and the New York Yankees. He makes the start for game 3 of the World Series, which, as I am writing this, has not occurred yet. Sanchez appears to be the best realistic option, as a Zack Greinke reunion seems to be unlikely.

Speaking of Greinke, if the Royals were to get him, I believe that it would require them to get creative. I think that I can assume you do not know who Mike Sweeney is. He was a first baseman for the Royals before he became injury plagued. The player is not the comparison, his contract is. I was reading a Rany Jazayerli article (a blogger and founder of Baseball Prosepectus) the other day, and he presented the idea of taking the unique clause out of Sweeney’s deal, that says the Royals cannot be bad. Let me explain- the clause says that if the Royals don’t finish over .500 (81-81) in 2003 or 2004, Sweeney can walk away. In the first year of his contract, (2003) the Royals won 83 games. The contract worked, as it kept what was at the time one of the best hitters in the American League in Kansas City. Greinke left Kansas City because he wanted to win, if the Royals give him this clause, if he does not win, he gets to leave.

Dayton Moore claims that he would like to pick up Kyle Lohse. I share another theory with Rany, and that is Moore should stay away from Kyle Lohse. Lohse currently plays for my beloved Cardinals, but he is a free agent this offseason. I have looked at all of Lohse’s splits, (stats) and all of them appear to say that he relies heavily on the Cardinals good defense, and luck. Since 1985, Kansas City is where luck keels over, balls up, and dies. Kansas City has a below average defense. (as a team). Lohse is going to get paid a substantial amount more than Sanchez, and Sanchez has appeared to be better over the last few seasons.

I hope that you have been able to draw a fair amount from this article, but if one thing could stick with you, it would be this; The Kansas City Royals need starting pitching, and Anibal Sanchez seems to be the answer. I am not saying that the Royals will be the best team in baseball, I am just saying that they might be competent, and competent is all that we are asking.

With the Kansas City Royals officially opening their 2012 season this Friday, the optimism for some fans is now being replaced with nervousness.

For a baseball fan, it is only natural to be optimistic during the off-season. The disaster of the previous year is in the past, free agents have been added, that overpaid free-agent’s contract finally expired, and well…somebody has to win next year, right? And for fans of most teams, eventually the optimism pays off. Your team comes from out of nowhere to qualify for the playoffs, and whether they advance or not, that can be considered a successful season (unless you’re the Yankees or Red Sox). But for longer than any other organization in baseball, Royals fans have had their off-season optimism shoved down their throat in the form of embarrassingly bad baseball. The Royals have the longest playoff drought in all of MLB. So one can understand why a Royals fan might eventually decide not to even bother with the positive thoughts.

Until the 2010 season, it was hard to envision a scenario in which Royals fans would be given any reason to believe they would see a winner in the near future. It was during that season, that things began to come together at the minor league level. Former first-round draft picks Mike Moustakas(3B) and Eric Hosmer(1B) began to emerge as two of the top prospects in baseball. 19-year old 3rd round draft pick Will Myers began to turn heads in A-ball. Other prospects began giving people to take notice as well, and before long, the Royals farm system was the talk of baseball. All of a sudden, that dark tunnel that Royals fans had peered into for so long started to show a faint light at the end. After the 2010 season, all the talk was about the Royals farm system. Not only was it considered the best in all of baseball, but some were calling it the best farm system that they had ever seen. And while the expectations for the 2011 Royals season weren’t great, fans were, for the first time in a very long time, allowed to feel legitimately optimistic for the future. 2011 saw the arrival of Hosmer, Moustakas, Salvador Perez(C), Johnny Giovatella(2B), Danny Duffy(SP), and a whole crop of young bullpen arms.

For the most part, all signs were positive. Hosmer impressed from day one. Moustakas went through his struggles, but by the end of the year, looked like he was figuring things out. Perez was very impressive, and while Giovatella and Duffy both struggled at times, both showed definite signs of promise. On top of this, Alcides Escobar(SS) emerged as arguably the best defensive SS in all of baseball. Lorenzo Cain came up for an impressive September call-up. Free-Agent Jeff Francoeur(OF) pulled his career out of the toilet with a fantastic year, and former top prospect Alex Gordon(OF) finally showed the promise he was thought to have when he was drafted in 2005. Looking at things from a long-term perspective, it is hard to imagine things going more positively in 2011. Everyone has pointed to 2012 as the year when the Royals will begin to ascend back to relevance for the first time in almost 20 years.

But what if it all goes wrong? This is a question that Royals fans are conditioned to ask. While Hosmer is as close to a sure thing as there is, would it surprise anyone if Moustakas never fully came around? If Duffy can’t keep his pitch count down? If Francoeur returns to being a near useless hitter? What if Gordon also finds himself with an extended stay on the DL? Center-fielder Lorenzo Cain is thought to be ready to break out, but what if that doesn’t happen? Salvador Perez has already been injured and is out until June. Closer Joakim Soria is out for the year with Tommy John surgery.

Each of these things individually is a very realistic possibility. But what makes this year different from past years, is that rather than considering all of the things that would have to go wrong for things to go bad, Royals fans were forced to point out all of the things that COULD go right to help them contend.

This year may not go as Royals fans hope. Every single thing listed above could take place. But it sure beats sitting around hoping Juan Gonzalez regains his MVP form, Mike Sweeney‘s back finally holds up, and Benito Santiago and Reggie Sanders discover the Fountain of Youth.

Before we get going, I have a confession to make. Prior to last night’s game, I was planning on writing about the need for Albert Pujols to step it up offensively and have a big impact on this series. I was getting ready to tell you he hadn’t hit a homerun since September 22^nd, how he’d only driven in 3 runs since then, and that the drought needed to end. I was even going to go as far as to suggest he could no longer work over playoff-quality pitching at the clip he once could.

The prosecution would obviously like to strike all that from the record.

Monday night in Game 2 of the NLCS, Albert put on a display for the ages. How’s this for stepping it up offensively?

First Inning: Home Run, 2 RBIs

Third Inning: Double, 2 RBIs

Fifth Inning: Double, 1 RBI (the aggressive base-running led to him scoring on a wild pitch)

Seventh Inning: Double, Run scored

Eighth Inning: Groundout to 2^nd, Milwaukee crowd gives home team a mock-ovation for finally getting Albert out. Resident pest, Milwaukee centerfielder Nyjer Morgan, sure didn’t waste much time backpedaling on his “Alberta” comment, saying after last night’s game:

“He’s special. I’ve never said anything about how (Pujols) plays. It was just talking smack. He’s still that special player, one of the best and greatest hitters around. You tip your hat to a guy who does his work like that.”

It was as if Morgan just then realized that it’s probably not such a great idea to poke the sleeping bear… especially a bear who nearly has as many career home runs (445) as Morgan has hits (467). Both Pujols and Morgan are 31 years old.

But it doesn’t take Morgan’s comments to cement the fact that it was an absolutely dominant performance, and awaiting in Game 3 is a pitcher in Yovani Gallardo that Pujols tagged for 2 home runs in a game just last month.

The Pujols v Gallardo matchup is just one of the many things the Cardinals have going for them as the NLCS returns to St. Louis for the first time since 2006.

Carpenter Pitching Twice: Splitting the first two games in Milwaukee was huge for the Cardinals, especially considering how much Milwaukee has struggled on the road this season (more on that in a minute). But the big boost comes in the form of Chris Carpenter, who after putting on one of the best lock-down pitching performances last Friday, is now set to take the mound in 2 of the remaining 5 games in the series (if necessary). Even though he’s going up against Brewers ace, Yovani Gallardo, in both games, you still have to feel good about the Cardinals’ chances of winning those games. Carpenter shutout Milwaukee on 4 hits in September, and went 8 innings allowing just 2 runs in a Cardinals win in mid-August (one of just 2 losses handed to the Brewers over a 21 game stretch at the time).

Braun’s Bat Neutralized: Milwaukee outfielder, Ryan Braun, is one heck of a hitter. With all due respect to Prince Fielder, Braun is probably the most frightening postseason hitter the Cardinals have seen since Carlos Beltran’s in the 2004 NLCS. Every time he comes up, it feels like he’s going to stroke a double into the gap… at least in Miller Park, that is. For whatever reason, Braun has been a much better hitter at home this postseason, as have most of the Brewers (though admittedly, it’s a small sample size). But that has also been the case over much of the regular season, so we’ll have to see how it all plays out here during these next 3 games in St. Louis.

Road Woes: The Brewers went 39-42 on the road this season, not a terrible record considering how bad of a start they got off to, but here’s what is bad: Including the playoffs, Milwaukee is now 10-21 against teams who made the playoffs this season. Considering Carpenter’s dominance the past 2 times the Brewers came to Busch, and Jaime Garcia’s near-miss at no-hitting them at Busch earlier this year, Milwaukee might need to win Game 4 if they plan on bringing this series back home for a possible Game 6 and 7.

Starting Edge: There’s really no reason to believe that the Brewers will have the upper hand for the rest of the games in the NLCS from a starting pitching standpoint. We’ve already been over what Carpenter and Garcia have done to the Brewers (Game 3, 5, and 7 starters), we’ve already touched on Pujols’ success against Yovani Gallardo, who the Cardinals beat twice in one week early last month (he’s slated for Games 3 and 7). In game 6, you have a rematch of Game 2… and we all know how well that worked out for St. Louis. That leaves only game 4 where the matchup might be even… but Kyle Lohse has been hot the past month and a half for the Cardinals, and Randy Wolf, the Brewers’ #4 starter, just got bombed by the Diamondbacks in the NLDS.

With that said, I leave you this fair warning: The Cardinals and Brewers are not simply tied at one game apiece… they’re tied 10-10. In 20 games this year, the teams have split them evenly. So despite home field advantage, the Brewers’ road woes, and the Cardinals’ apparent pitching edge… don’t expect the Cardinals to wrap this series up at Busch and coast into the World Series. What you can expect, more than likely, is another heart-stopping, nerve-wracking, intense as all get-out Game 7 at Miller Park.

“We shocked the world”.

Those words are uttered in only two cases. Absolute disasters, or sports miracles. It’s kind of bizarre, but in no other situation do you ever hear of anyone saying that the world was shocked. Ever. Even with Obama’s election, perhaps some of the world was surprised but no one stated that he had shocked the world, or that our country had shocked the world given our election’s result…and that was a historical Presidential election.

Many would consider the Cubs winning the World Series to be an absolute sports miracle. If the Cubs were to in fact win the World Series, become the champions of the world in the world of baseball…you can bet a LOT of money that someone will use that phrase. Someone will flat out state that the Cubs’ victory over the Boston Red Sox (yeah, that’s right, the Boston Red Sox) surprised the entire world, our entire planet, so much that it is in shock. Chicago? Certainly. Boston? Yes. Canada? Um, ok. Bangladesh? Paris? Sydney? Helsinki??? Intrigued? Perhaps? Shocked? No.

If the Cubs were to win the World Series then yes, someone will say they shocked the world. In reality? They would have made millions of Cubs fans VERY happy and many baseball fans or people who have a heart would happily give them a pleasant smile, perhaps a teary eye and a ‘that’s cool’ sentiment considering the over a century long drought the team has suffered through and well, to not feel something towards a group of people who suffered for so long…yes, you’d have to be heartless to not. However, I feel shocked is a bit of a stretch.

The streak itself lends itself as the only evidence you truly need to NOT be shocked by the Cubs winning the World Series. Over ONE HUNDRED years without a championship. Others have done it much more quickly. The Mets. The Marlins. In fact, every single team that has won a championship has done it within a shorter waiting period of time than the Cubs would have with the current streak at 102 years and counting. Give me a break ‘shocked’. The Cubs are DUE.

You know what I think would be shocking? If the Royals win the World Series in 2011. If the Pirates win the World Series in 2011. If the Orioles win the World Series in 2011. And yes, even if the Phillies win the World Series in 2011 I’d be shocked because how often do you actually meet expectations and nothing goes wrong for your team to stop you from what should have been an easily accomplished, obvious to predict feat? In each of those scenarios, I would be SHOCKED.

If the Cubs win it? Not so much. Surprised? Elated? Thrilled? Speechless? Relieved? Absolutely. But after 102 years and with the roster that we have (that’s right, the roster that we have) I believe in one of the other age-old sayings in sports when it comes to predicting how a season will turn out. And that is: Why not us?

And really, why not us?

As far as I’m concerned, great teams need five key things to win it all and I believe the Cubs have the potential to meet every single criteria. Pitching, youth, veteran leadership, wise management, luck. Some are MUCH harder to come by, but I see no reason why the Cubs can’t land the money ball in every single category.

PITCHING: Our starters were great when it came to quality starts in 2010. Dempster is about as reliable as it gets and a great guy to have in the clubhouse. He’s the rock of the rotation for 2011 now that Lilly is gone and there is no reason to think he can’t be the leader in the starting five. Zambrano is equal parts talent and equal parts imbalance. That’s what many believe, I don’t buy it. Zambrano is extremely talented and capable of doing great things, proven in his overall Cub record, leading the team in the past five Opening Day starts, throwing a no-hitter, being a dominant figure on the mound and the way he finished the second half of last season. If he can start the way he did last year and finish the way he did last year, then Zambrano might just be capable of handling just about anything. And what are the odds that he will go from Opening Day starter, to bullpen, back to rotation with head issues in between mixed with being the center of a lot of team drama? Chances are that’s not going to happen again. I like Z’s chances of having a real quality 2011. Wells is working on showing people that his first year is the real Wells, not the sophomore slump guy we watched in 2010. I like that he can admit that he grew too big for his britches last year. Talent is great but mixed with maturity, it can go a long way.

Silva/Gorzelanny/Russell/ Cashner are practically interchangeable. No matter who ends up staying with the club, they will be the Cubs’ fifth starter and usually .500 seasons out of your number five guy is about all anyone hopes for. I know they are all capable of giving us that if not greater.

And of course, the Cubs’ new toy for 2011…the new piece on the showroom floor: Matt Garza. I was disappointed when I heard we were bringing in another guy this off-season but his name wasn’t Carlos. I really want to lead the league in Carloses (Carlosi? Carli?). I’m kidding….Matt Garza is possibly the missing link the Cubs have been looking for. 15 wins last season, an ALCS MVP and an all-around solid pitcher. Coming from an environment and culture similar to the Cubs where no one expected much, he knows what it is to help get a team from the basement to the penthouse of an incredibly competitive division. I like the Garza signing. I don’t think we gave up too much for him and I’m excited to have him as a key part of the Cubs starting rotation in 2011.

Marshall/Wood/Marmol. Is there a better bullpen trio in the league? Maybe only the Yankees and that’s only because they landed Soriano to match with Rivera. Rivera is a legend, but he’s also another year older. Even if they make the Cubs #2 in the league, I’d take it because in the grand scheme of things, being number two in the league regarding your top three bullpen guys is pretty damn good and nothing to complain about. I love the talent and potential we have to close games out now, starting with a lead going into the seventh and holding it throughout the rest of the game. 2010 was horrible for the Cubs when it came to one-run decisions. This next season? Not so much.

The Cards are strong with their 1-2 punch in Wainwright and Carpenter. The Reds are impressive with their young staff coming off a division title. The Brewers always seem to compete and will do so with Greinke in 2011. It’s not going to be easy, but pitching wins championships and I feel comfortable putting the Cubs staff up against any one else in the Central.

THE ROSTER: Our starting line-up, while somewhat premature considering it’s only January 14th and pitchers and catchers don’t even report until a month from now, is pretty much figured out for the most part. Not in any particular batting order, just a simple run-down of Cubs starters by position:

C – Geovany Soto – Talented young catcher, one of the best in the National League. Coming off an off year last year but recently signed an extension with additional money/increased salary. He’ll be looking to show the Ricketts and the fans that the Cubs didn’t make a mistake in signing him and avoiding arbitration. Also, all we have behind him is Koyie Hill really, so Soto, you have no choice. You need to be awesome…no relying on Koyie. Thanks.

1B – Carlos Pena – Our latest Carlos addition to the Cubs. Pena batted under .200 for the season in 2010. He was one of many one-year contracts that were doled out in the off-season (do that many people think they have a shot at Pujols?) and he is expected to bring the power bat necessary to replace Lee’s spot in the order. His glove is supposed to be reliable and his power numbers shouldn’t suffer at Wrigley. I like the signing, I think it has a lot of potential to work out and I believe his BA will rebound. God, help us if it doesn’t. I’m tired of anyone thinking Colvin is a good option at first and Lee’s already been exiled to Baltimore. This has a lot of potential to work and if he stays healthy, I believe it will.

2B – Blake Dewitt – I don’t expect much out of DeWitt and I believe Baker may even replace him come June or July. However, with the other guys in this line up, second base is a place that we really just need the flash and reliability of the glove on defense, not necessarily a whole lot of RBI. Just get on base and set the table for the guys we’re paying to knock in the runs Dewitt and we’ll all be happy.

SS – Starlin Castro – The club already has ads sporting Castro against Jeter, so yeah, the organization is high on Castro. All of the Cubs Con materials feature the youthful stars of the team and Castro, after finishing in the top 10 for the NL in hitting his rookie campaign is among the top of them. No sophomore on the team is expected to do more than Castro is, I believe the expectations on him are even higher than Soto’s were. Hopefully he lives up to them and continues to learn under Quade’s leadership.

3B – Aramis Ramirez – If Ramirez stays healthy (and I understand it’s a big IF) then he will be fine. He is playing at the end of his current contract and if he truly wants to stay in Chicago as a Cub, then 2011 is the time to prove the Cubs should pick up the 2012 option. He picked up his own option for 2011. The team has the call in 2012. Rami can put up big numbers healthy. I’ll be rooting for the trainers once again this year to see that it happens.

OF – Soriano, Byrd, Colvin, Fukudome – No, I don’t think we’re playing softball. I simply believe left to right we’ll start Sori, Byrd and Colvin and Fuke will sub in where needed. I believe we’ll be seeing Reed Johnson at Wrigley a bunch this year as well. Chances that five outfielders stay healthy and produce are very slim, however, I like our chances with the guys we’ve got. They all bring something different to the table and they are a talented bunch at that. Hopefully Byrd can repeat his All-Star caliber performance of 2010 in 2011 (it wouldn’t hurt for Sori to make a return to the All-Star stage as well. Just saying).

New manager: Mike Quade – Quade took a team playing for absolutely nothing and had them playing basically .600 ball. He proved to be a great leader in teaching the young stars on the team and the vets respect his long journey and knowledge he’s gathered throughout his life in the game. As of Opening Day, the entire team will be behind the idea of having him as their manager. Some more than others as some of them even went as far as publicly backing his selection before it was announced. Quade is going to get a chance to do something he’s always wanted to do and the players believe he can get them what they’ve always wanted to get. The same thing the city has always wanted to see. A title. A championship. A ring.

Given all the unknowns that happen to every single team throughout a baseball season, luck becomes a great factor, indeed. However, luck is out of our control as it is every other team in baseball so as for things we can control, I think the ingredients and potential are there. Let’s hope the execution and results show up as well.

Respect to the rest of the Central, the National League and the Red Sox (that’s right, the Red Sox…I don’t even think the Yankees are making the playoffs in 2011). I think it’s going to be a tough road to get there, but after 102 years…come on…we don’t expect it to be easy…and we’re due. Why not us? A Cubs fan predicting the Cubs will win the NL Central and then go on to win the World Series.

I know. Shocking.

Projected order of finish in the NL Central (rest of the league to follow in a post much closer to Opening Day):

1. Chicago Cubs
2. St. Louis Cardinals
3. Cincinnati Reds
4. Milwaukee Brewers
5. Houston Astros
6. Pittsburgh Pirates

Ryan Maloney
Prose and Ivy
http://onedayatwrigleyac000000.mlblogs.com/

I was watching the news recently, a story about people out protesting the spending by the federal government, and I was struck with a thought: I wonder if the recent worries I’ve been reading on blog posts about the Cardinals and large player salaries could be related.

Perhaps this is a recent phenomenon, brought on by recession-related news in the media, but I don’t recall reading many concerns from fans in the high-living days of 12-figure free-agent salaries handed out to one player after another. Quite the contrary; the calls from fans for their favorite team to nab the cream of the free agent crop were pretty common. The only concern was from fans complaining of an increase in ticket prices as a result of these new signings.

There have been several studies over the past few years indicating there is limited correlation between winning percentage and player payroll, including one from the University of Iowa that tracked data from 1995-2007, adjusted for inflation, that showed a correlation of winning percentage and a team’s player salaries of just 18 percent.

Then there’s the type of players upon owners lavish these salaries. Bill James did a study in the Baseball Abstract more than 20 years ago which demonstrated in the aggregate, a typical player’s performance peak is at or near age 27. Yet most free agents, who are required to put in at least six years’ service, are older than this and are at risk for decline.

The anecdotal evidence for teams such as the Cubs, who signed a number of free agents and extended the contracts of several others in an attempt to end a century-long championship drought, demonstrate the risk both of high salaries and the players they sign. There’s very little the team can do to move Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, Carlos Zambrano, Alfonso Soriano or Kosuke Fukodome, aging players with mediocre numbers and large salaries. A number of other teams, like Houston with Carlos Lee, find themselves in similar predicaments. Spending on these proven veterans crowds out opportunities for emerging young stars, who find themselves blocked at the big-league level, and crowds out opportunity for stretch-drive trades and payroll boosts for a club fighting for a playoff spot.

Which brings me back to the introduction. After years of both quantitative study and anecdotal experience available, fans who otherwise might support a club signing a big-name free agent or providing a multi-million dollar extension over several years have begun to voice their concerns with such risks. Such as concerns federal and state government spending crowds out private sector investment in the marketplace, the concern for these fans is that high salaries paid to players over 30 is unsustainable for a team seeking long-term competitive and financial viability.

Which brings us to Albert Pujols.

Prince Albert turned 30 in January, and the Cardinals may have to consider an annual salary between $25-$30 million and perhaps an extension of up to seven years to keep him with the Birds on the Bat. Even Joe Strauss of the Post-Dispatch wonders if the club has a better than even chance of signing him to such a lucrative deal, especially after the team obligated so much of its player salary resources for the next seven years to Matt Holliday this past winter.

There is no question the Cardinals want to sign Albert Pujols, and need to sign him. He’s a fan favorite, he’s the face of the franchise, a genuine marketing phenomenon, one of the great men to play the game. His numbers ensure an easy path to enshrinement in Cooperstown five years after he retires.

But those fans who protest spending by the team have a point. Do the Cardinals make an emotional decision to obligate another large share of scarce financial resources to a second player and risk a situation as both distance themselves from that aggregate peak performance age of 27 that the Cubs now face? Or do they make perhaps the wiser fiscal decision to allow Pujols to walk knowing that the club then would be better positioned to capitalize on unknown opportunities in the future?

Like Joe Strauss, I am amazed that a share of Cardinals fans greater than zero actually would entertain either trading Pujols or allowing him to depart. And I wonder to what extent an awareness of financial issues in general thanks to these people out protesting government spending and our current recession has to do with it.