The kings of irrelevant success are at it early in 2012. After putting together winning Septembers in three of the last four seasons, your 2012 Kansas City Royals have started the month of August at 10-6, perhaps starting their annual trek up the standings one month ahead of time. Still trailing their division leader by 13 games, this recent hot streak means little even if it’s continued at its current pace for the next 45 days, so what does matter as we head down the stretch? Here are five numbers that I think are far more important than how many games the Royals win in the next 6 weeks.

Photo Courtesy of Minda Haas

1. Johnny Giavotella’s fielding percentage. Technically it may actually be more important what his defense looks like to Ned Yost. We all know the Royals aren’t the most interested team in advanced defensive metrics, so it definitely doesn’t matter what his UZR looks like. Regardless, second base is the one place the Royals could most significantly improve their offense in 2013(besides right field, and Jeff Francoeur is going nowhere), assuming Giavotella can prove to management that his glove will play.
2. Jeremy Guthrie’s contract. Guthrie has clearly earned himself a two year deal from Dayton Moore at the minimum. There is nothing more that Moore loves than featuring a player that makes him look smart, and getting anything at all for Jonathan Sanchez looks brilliant. If it’s a two year deal for $14 million, I’m good with it…and it may signal the end of the Luke Hochevar era. If it’s a three year deal for $30 million and Guthrie is starting on Opening Day next year, I’ll be furious.
3. Billy Butler’s home run total. Should this matter? Not really,  but it’s been a sore spot for fans for far too long and could be the only thing to drive fans to the park the couple of weeks of the season. Butler needs twelve home runs over his last 44 games to break the most embarrassing franchise record in baseball. He hit 11 in 44 games earlier in the year, so it’s certainly possible.
4. Wil Myers’ games played. The only thing that would make any sense at all would be if the Royals bring Myers up in September and let him play nearly every day. If they don’t I’m really going to have some questions about their plans for him. The only reasonable explanation to me would be that they plan on trading him this winter and don’t want him exposed at the big league level.
5. Alex Gordon’s batting average. I am shocked that Ned Yost chose to mess with Gordon’s place in the order yet again. Let me rephrase that, I would be shocked if a competent manager chose to jerk a player around as much as Yost has with Gordon. Gordon is clearly most comfortable in the lead off role. Yost is clearly uncomfortable with someone batting lead off with that high of an on base percentage.

ROUND ROCK, Texas – The Pacific Coast League today announced the 2011 All-PCL Team, led by a league-most three players from the Omaha Storm Chasers.

The Storm Chasers, currently the American Northern Division leader, are represented by second baseman Johnny Giavotella, designated hitter Clint Robinson, and right-handed pitcher Luis Mendoza. Giavotella, who was promoted to Kansas City on August 5th, leads all PCL second baseman with a .338 batting average while Robinson has hit 23 homers and driven in 97 runs in 130 games. Omaha’s ace, Mendoza, has won 11 decisions to accompany his league-best 2.15 earned run average.

The Sacramento River Cats and Reno Aces are the only other teams represented by more than one player. Catcher Anthony Recker (.287, 16 HR) and outfielder Jai Miller (30 HR, 77 RBI) helped power the River Cats to their fifth consecutive Pacific Southern Division crown. Reno’s Cody Ransom, who established new single-season franchise-records for Reno in home runs and RBI, and Collin Cowgill, the only PCL player to have more than 10 home runs and 30 stolen bases this season, were named to the squad as shortstop and outfielder, respectively.

The PCL’s home run leader, Bryan LaHair, was voted to the team as the first baseman. LaHair, 28, is enjoying a career-year with the Iowa Cubs, as he has posted new career-highs in home runs (36) and runs scored (89) while his batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage are the highest for a single-season in his career with eight games remaining this season. He currently leads the PCL in home runs, runs batted in, total bases and extra-base hits.

Along with Cowgill, Giavotella and Robinson, third baseman Taylor Green of the Nashville Sounds and outfielder Joey Butler of the Round Rock Express bring the total number of the first-year Triple-A players on the All-PCL Team to five. In his sixth professional season, Green leads the Sounds in batting average, OBP and doubles over his 120 games played. Drafted by the Texas Rangers in the 15th round of the 2008 June Draft, Butler is batting .326 with 27 doubles and 12 home runs for the American Southern Division champs.

Completing the All-PCL pitching staff, Dana Eveland of the Albuquerque Isotopes was selected as the left-handed pitcher, and Victor Marte of the Memphis Redbirds was named to the team as the top reliever. Eveland, who is one of seven players to be named to the PCL’s Mid-Season and Post-Season All-Star teams this year, has won 12 decisions, the second-most in the league, to go along with 107 strikeouts. Marte has made 51 appearances for Memphis, posting a 1.53 ERA and tallying a PCL-best 28 saves.

Storm Chasers Well-Represented on All-PCL Team
Giavotella, Mendoza, Robinson make up 25 percent of exclusive roster

OMAHA, Neb. — The Omaha Storm Chasers’ storybook inaugural season added another chapter Monday, as the Pacific Coast League named Johnny Giavotella, Luis Mendoza and Clint Robinson to its prestigious 12-member All-PCL Team.

Giavotella, the All-PCL second baseman, batted .338 with nine home runs, 72 RBI, 34 doubles and 67 runs scored in 110 games with the Storm Chasers this season. He was honored as the league’s All-Star representative at second base and was also named the PCL Player of the Month for June, during which he batted .398 (49-for-123). He was promoted to the Kansas City Royals on August 5.

Right-hander Luis Mendoza was one of three pitchers named to the squad. The 27-year-old has an 11-5 record with a league-leading 2.15 ERA for the Chasers, more than a full run better than his nearest competitor. He has dominated the league since May 26, compiling a 10-2 record with a 1.24 ERA over 108.2 innings pitched, including 9-0 with a 1.19 ERA in 10 road appearances. He threw a complete-game, one-hit shutout at Memphis on July 18.

Clint Robinson, honored as the designated hitter for the All-PCL Team, has been one of the hottest hitters in the league over the past two-and-a-half weeks, pushing his season numbers into awe-inspiring territory. The 6-foot-5, left-handed slugger is batting .478 with four home runs, 24 RBI and 11 doubles in his past 18 games, giving him a season average of .329 with 23 homers, 97 RBI and 35 doubles. His 35 doubles rank second on the all-time single-season franchise list, one ahead of Giavotella and two off of the record of 37.

Joining the Omaha trio are catcher Anthony Recker of Sacramento, first baseman Bryan LaHair of Iowa, third baseman Taylor Green of Nashville, shortstop Cody Ransom of Reno and outfielders Joey Butler (Round Rock), Collin Cowgill (Reno) and Jai Miller (Sacramento). Albuquerque left-handed starting pitcher Dana Eveland and Memphis closer Victor Marte round out the 12-member squad. Including Miller and Marte, five of the 12 players have played for Omaha during the past two seasons.

Each of the Storm Chasers’ three representatives were also named to the Pacific Coast League All-Star squad in Salt Lake, though that roster had 30 players and representation from each club.

The All-PCL team, which features players from just eight of the 16 PCL clubs, was voted on by the league’s field managers, general managers and media.

The NL Central has seen its share of weirdness throughout most of the 2011 season. The division leader has been a revolving door that the Cardinals, Reds, Brewers, and even the Pirates enjoyed a few turns through. But as the All Star Break shrinks in the rear view mirror, so does the number of contenders for what will likely be the only playoff spot to come out of this division.

The Brewers currently occupy first place, and the Cardinals are not far behind them. These two teams play each other nine more times this year; fortunately for the Cards, six of those meetings are in St. Louis. Playing in Milwaukee this season has roughly resembled walking into a minefield, which means the Cardinals must make the most of the Brewers’ visits to Busch Stadium. Those two series will be about as “must-win” as any regular season set.

And the two teams have remarkably similar schedules the rest of the way. They actually play all the same teams in the same number of series except for one; the Cards still have to play the Atlanta Braves, and the Brewers have one more series against the Astros than the Cards do.

The similarities don’t stop there, either. The Cardinals and Brewers are pretty even in most team stats. The Cardinals have the edge in a lot of offensive categories; the Brewers have a little better pitching overall. It probably comes as no surprise that the Cardinals have ground into way more double plays than the Brewers, but the fact that the Cards only have one more blown save is a little surprising. And the two teams have committed about the same number of errors, too.

If the teams are so even, then why is Milwaukee in front now? For starters, the Brewers are hot right now and the Cardinals are playing good—but not great—baseball. In the first half of the year, the opposite was true—and the standings were flip-flopped. But with less than a third of the season left, that seems like eons ago. Now every win is important and every loss has the potential to be disastrous. Falling five or six games out of first place at this point in the year could be the death knell, even for the Cardinals and that dynamite lineup.

For the Cardinals to keep pace and make a move to overtake the Brewers in the standings, they have to do the following:

1. Get the maximum out of the rotation. This does not mean every starter has to throw eight innings or 120 pitches every night. But these four and five inning outings have to disappear. The Cards have a stronger bullpen than before the trade deadline, but they will come apart quickly if overexposed. The five starters have to pitch efficiently, something that may be a little easier with Rafael Furcal manning shortstop.
2. Finish games. It hasn’t been pretty every time out, but the bullpen has certainly been better than it was in the first half of the season. That must continue. If the Cardinals win the division, it will be in spite of the numerous blown saves and ineffectiveness of pitchers who were so bad they were dumped by the team. If they lose the division, those shortcomings will catch a lot of the initial blame.
3. Beat the Brewers at Busch. It sounds oversimplified, but considering how good the Brewers are at home the Cardinals cannot afford to lose either of the remaining series against Milwaukee in St. Louis. Those are easily the six most important games of the stretch run in 2011.
4. Dominate the three weeks around Labor Day. Pirates, Brewers, Reds, Brewers, Braves, Pirates. Those are the Cardinals’ opponents August 25-September 14. Emotions will be high and position in the standings will be on the line every night. Winning most of those games would make a huge statement. So would losing most of them.
5. End on a high note. The Cardinals’ final three series of the regular season are against the Mets, Cubs, and Astros. All three teams could be showcasing a lot of youngsters to see what they have for next year. The Cards need to take it to them, especially with the Brewers finishing with six home games.

The Cardinals will have every opportunity to win the NL Central title this year. But the Brewers show no signs of folding, and the Reds or even the Pirates could nudge their way back into relevance. Even the Cubs are riding a six game winning streak. The Cards would do well to put together something similar. In fact, this would be a good time for a couple winning streaks like that. Stranger things have happened, and 2011 has already been strange enough.

On the heels of a hot streak, the Cardinals rolled into Chicago to the tune of one of baseball’s most celebrated rivalries. The trip to the Windy City did not go the way the Cardinals had hoped, as they dropped the opening two and had to salvage Sunday night in front of the ESPN national audience to avoid the sweep. Even that took extra innings.

The bi-polar Cardinals will take their show further East on the road as they slide into another city that is inhabited by an old rival. The team that has become known as “Pond Scum” around the Gateway City will play host to the Redbirds this week for a three game set.

Current Snapshot

St. Louis: 55-44, First Place, NL Central, 1 Game ahead of Cincinnati. The Cards have gone 7-3 over their last 10 games and have been showing signs of life since the All Star break. At the same time, they floundered in Chicago to the extent of frustration against a team that they should perform better against if they are in fact the “team to beat” in this division.

New York: 50-49, Third Place, NL East, 7.5 Games back of division leader Atlanta. The Mets are 2-8 over their last 10 games and seem to be on the verge of losing their season. The manager is rumored to be on the hot seat and the players have not performed to the level necessary, causing the team to show up in trade rumors with our other I-70 team, the Royals.

Pitching Matchup

Tuesday, July 27, 6:10 P.M. CST: Adam Wainwright (14-5, 1.94 ERA) vs Jon Niese (6-4, 3.54 ERA)
Wainwright is doing everything in his power to ensure that he does not get left in the dark when it comes to the Cy Young award this season. He has been lights out lately, though many of his starts in the summer heat of St. Louis have been shortened to six innings or so. Wainwright has not surrendered an earned run in his last three starts and is one of the most prolific pitchers in his home ballpark. Jason Bay will look to find his stroke against a pitcher that he has posted a .353 average against in his career. Carlos Beltran, on the other hand, may look to seek revenge for being on the receiving end of one of the most famous pitches in St. Louis Cardinal history.

Niese does not have much of a history against the Redbirds, but what history he has, he would like to forget. In a short outing last season, he sustained an injury to his leg that required surgery to repair. He has been on of New York’s occasional bright spots this season, though not as sharp in his last start. Still, Niese matches up well for the Mets and should give them an opportunity to overcome the Cardinals’ ace and possibly pull out a win.

Wednesday, July 28, 6:10 P.M. CST: Jaime Garcia (9-4, 2.21 ERA) vs Mike Pelfrey (10-5, 4.00 ERA)
There may not be a better story than Jaime Garcia’s this season for the Cardinals. A pitcher that was overshadowed by other arms going into Spring Training, Jaime has claimed the third spot in the rotation and been dominant at times. At other times, he has been hittable, but he seems to work his way into and out of trouble with some grit.

Mike Pelfrey has been as up and down as the team he plays for this season. While his overall line does not look bad, his last few games have just about wrecked it. While his most recent start suggests that he may be back on track, he has suffered through some horrible pitching, giving up more base runners than innings pitched as of late. Matt Holliday is hitting 375 against Pelfrey in his career, but Randy Winn can only boast a .100 average despite facing him more times than any other St. Louis hitter.

Thursday, July 29, 11:10 A.M. CST: Blake Hawksworth (4-6, 5.23 ERA) vs Johan Santana (8-5, 2.79 ERA)
The Cardinals have survived through most of the season based on their pitching. Blake Hawksworth is the example of both the things that are going right for the team and the reason why the team desperately needs another arm. While the reliever-turned-starter has given the Cardinals serviceable outings and impressed fans beyond his ability this season, he has not been the dominant part of the rotation that the Cardinals need him to be. His last start did not last five innings and, thanks in large part to the bullpen, he did not leave the team in a position to win the game. He has very little experience against this Mets team and the Cardinals will hope that he can keep them in contention against one of New York’s best.

Johan Santana has not been his usual, dominant self in 2010, but you could not tell that over his last three starts. Posting an ERA under one (0.82) while striking out 14 batters over the course of 22 innings, Santana may be finding the proverbial “groove”. Santana always pitches the Cardinals tough, but the resident superstar, Albert Pujols, may be pretty happy to see him. Albert holds a .500 average and a pair of solo home runs against the Mets’ lefty. The middle infield for the Cardinals, however, may not find much solace in the assignment. Skip Schumaker, Felipe Lopez, Brendan Ryan and Aaron Miles have combined for one solitary hit against Santana in 25 at bats.

Prognosis
The Cardinals need to win this series to show that they are closer related to the team that showed up after the All Star Break than the team that went into it. With Wainwright and Garcia on the mound for the first two, they have that opportunity. The team needs to settle in and perform like it is capable of, or the Mets could find themselves sneaking a win or two out of a very tough series.