The final scores of the first three games between the Cincinnati Reds and St. Louis Cardinals this season weren’t all that close, but the games were tighter than the margins of victory indicated.

That could foreshadow another season of great baseball between the National League Central Division’s two best teams, but it probably won’t determine which team wins the division.

The Cincinnati Reds destroyed the St. Louis Cardinals 13-4 Monday in the Cardinals’ home-opener, but that was a close game until the ninth, and the Cardinals ripped the Reds the next two days, 5-1 and 10-0, to take an extremely early 2-1 lead in the season series against their most dangerous divisional opponent.

That’s obviously a good way to kick off what could be a fun race for the 2013 division crown, but the Cardinals’ records against teams outside the National League Central Division might be even more important.

Based on how the teams played in their recent series at Busch Stadium, the Cardinals and Reds are both good, but they are pretty evenly matched.  One team probably won’t win the vast majority of the 19 games the rivals play against each other this season, nor will one team likely falter against a specific divisional opponent.

The Milwaukee Brewers and Pittsburgh Pirates are decent, but the Cardinals and Reds are better than both of those teams, as well as the lowly Chicago Cubs, and they should run through the division relatively easily. Now, the division race could be drastically altered if the Cardinals or Reds continually falter against a particular opponent, but that is still improbable.

The more likely scenario is a season series that ends up 10-9, 11-8 or 12-7. Sure, those couple of games will be extremely important if the Reds and Cardinals end up in a tight battle in the standings near the end of the season, but the winner of that battle will likely be the team that wins the most games against teams in every other divisions, especially now that Major League Baseball has implemented season-long interleague play.

The Cardinals beat the Reds in eight of their 15 games last season, and both teams had similar records within the division. The Cardinals went 45-32 against NL Central opponents, while the Reds went 49-30. Again, those few games do matter, but the biggest difference between the Cardinals and Reds in 2012 was their performance against NL East teams.

The Reds won 19 of 34 games against the NL East last season. While that’s not a great record by any means, it is significantly better than the Cardinals 14-20 record against those same teams. And that’s largely the reason the Reds finished nine games ahead of the Cardinals in the final standings.

But that doesn’t mean Reds-Cardinals games won’t be a lot of fun to watch this season. Both teams have good pitching, and they have balanced lineups that can score a lot of runs at any time. That combination makes for games that will usually be close throughout, as the last three games were through the first half.

The Cardinals would’ve outscored the Reds 3-2 for the series if the teams had play just the first four innings each day. Instead, the Cardinals outscored the Reds 19-14 in what looks like an offensively charged series, when in reality pitchers shut down each offense for the majority of each game.

The teams will meet again April 29 for round two at Busch Stadium, and they’ll play four more series after that. But what each team does in the games between those meetings will play just as large a role in which team represents the NL Central in the 2013 playoffs.

We are slowly approaching Spring Training 2012 when the Kansas City Royals start arriving on February 20^th in Surprise, Arizona. The Royals will be looking to improve on their 71-91 record from last year and hope to challenge for the division title this season. Kansas City certainly will have a better chance, this year than the past few seasons, at pushing the rest of the AL Central for the division title with its young and talented core of players beginning to make their impact on the major leagues.

As the Royals roster is constructed currently, I see this team in the 75-83 win range. This is mainly due to the starting rotation and that the team is still very young. The 2012 Royals team will look similar to 2011 with only a few changes:

• Melky Cabrera was traded for starting pitcher Jonathan Sanchez
• Lorenzo Cain will be the front runner for the center field opening
• Sanchez replaces Francis in the rotation
• Bruce Chen accepted less money to return to rotation
• Yuniesky Betancourt returns to Kansas City as infield depth
• Kevin Kouzmanoff was recently brought in on a minor league deal for depth at third base
• Jonathan Broxton was signed as another weapon to bridge the game to Soria.

The Royals lineup and bench will have a good balance of veterans and young players and manager Ned Yost will continue to try to get to most out of every player to have a sniffing chance at the division crown. If opening day was today the Royals lineup should look something like this:

1. LF Alex Gordon
2. 2B Johnny Giavotella
3. 1B Eric Hosmer
4. DH Billy Butler
5. RF Jeff Francoeur
6. 3B Mike Moustakas
7. C Salvador Perez
8. CF Lorenzo Cain
9. SS Alcides Escobar

Bench: C Brayan Pena, IF Chris Getz, IF Yuniesky Betancourt, OF Mitch Maier, OF Jarrod Dyson or IF Kevin Kouzmanoff

This is all pre-spring training and there is plenty of time for things to develop and change. I would imagine Yost will go with 14 position players and 11 pitchers but he certainly could use the extra pitcher with the current Royals rotation. It will be interesting to watch how the bench battles develop – one or two reserve outfielders and two or three reserve infielders.

Now, let’s compare the Royals rotation and closer situation to the rest of the AL Central:

It should be clear that Detroit and Cleveland are a definite 1 and 2 in terms of pitching with Kansas City, Minnesota and Chicago battling for third and beyond. The Royals bullpen was a surprising strong point last season and should be solid once again. Kansas City can certainly claim to have the top bullpen or #2 in the AL Central right now just based on last year’s numbers and player histories.

In order for Kansas City to have any shot at a division title run a few things need to happen: the bats need to continue to improve on last season with another year of experience under their belt, the bullpen to dominate with everyone returning along with new flame-thrower Broxton joining the crew, the rotation will need to prove the doubters wrong with quality starts keeping the bats in the game to get to the strong pen to close it out, and, of course, a little luck. Easier said than done, right? Hurry up spring.

Follow me on twitter at @mstreeter06

Offense Comes Alive in Game 2 Victory
Chasers collect 18 hits in 15-4 romp; need one win for first PCL title

Mike Feigen / Omaha Storm Chasers

OMAHA, Neb. — The Omaha Storm Chasers had a memorable inaugural season at Werner Park, ushering in a new era of Kansas City Royals prospects, winning the franchise’s first division crown since 1999 and hitting a series-ending walk-off home run to advance past the conference championship round. The home slate ended on a high note Wednesday night, as the Chasers crushed the River Cats 15-4 in Game 2 of the Pacific Coast League Championship Series, moving to within one win of a league title.

Just as they did during the division-clinching game against Round Rock on August 31, the Storm Chasers fell behind early before cruising to victory. Sacramento jumped out to 3-0, first-inning lead off eventual winning pitcher Vin Mazzaro, capping the inning with a two-run home run to right off the bat of Adrian Cardenas. Mazzaro (2-0) would escape further damage, working five total innings while allowing three runs on six hits. He walked four and struck out two, throwing 91 pitches.

Omaha got back in the game with a run in the first and another in the second before crossing the plate five times with two out in the third. River Cats starter Tyson Ross (0-2) took the brunt of the offensive assault, finishing his evening after 2.2 innings, allowing seven runs – four earned – on nine hits, walking one while striking out three.

With runners on first and second and two down in the third, Irving Falu hit a slow bouncer toward short that looked like it would end the inning. However, the ball took a funny hop and skipped off the glove of shortstop Tyler Ladendorf, loading the bases. Manny Pina then dropped a two run single into shallow left-field, giving the Chasers a 4-3 lead in the game. A fielding error and two singles followed, and by the time the inning was over the Storm Chasers held a 7-3 advantage.

After Sacramento inched closer with a run in the top of the sixth, Omaha put its collective foot on the gas and didn’t let up. The Chasers scored twice in the sixth, three times in the seventh and three more times in the eighth, piling up 18 hits in the contest. Jarrod Dyson finished 4-for-6 with a homer, four RBI, three runs, a double and a stolen base in the winning effort, tripling his total playoff output of two hits entering the night.

David Lough and Clint Robinson also had three-hit games, each tallying a double and two runs batted in. The Chasers had five doubles on the night from five different players and had six players with multi-hit games.

Kevin Pucetas, Brandon Sisk, Zach Miner and Federico Castaneda combined for four innings of relief, allowing a run on three hits and two walks, striking out three batters. With a travel day coming up Thursday, manager Mike Jirschele should have a fully-rested bullpen for any remaining series games.

The Chasers are now 5-1 in the playoffs, needing just one win on the road in Sacramento to claim the first Pacific Coast League Championship in franchise history and first league title since 1990. In the potentially-clinching Game 3, 22-year-old California native and left-hander Mike Montgomery (5-11, 5.32 ERA regular season) will take the mound in his home state for the first time in his career. On the mound for the River Cats will be right-hander Travis Banwart (3-3, 7.38), a pitcher the Storm Chasers have not seen this season.

Friday’s first pitch is scheduled for 9:05 p.m. central from Raley Field in Sacramento. The game can be heard on 1620 The Zone and the Chasers will also host a watch party at Brewsky’s on 156^th & Q. Should Omaha win the PCL Championship, the Chasers would battle the International League champion in a one-game playoff on Tuesday in Albuquerque, N.M. First pitch of that contest would be 7:05 p.m., with the game broadcast nationally on VERSUS.

Omaha Chases Down Division Crown
Chasers blow out Round Rock, wait out Memphis loss

Mike Feigen / Omaha Storm Chasers

Photo Courtesy of Erika Lynn

OMAHA, Neb. — Mike Jirschele stood on a folding chair in the clubhouse, surrounded by the smiling faces of his Storm Chasers players. He gave his remarks, made a toast and was ceremoniously doused in a shower of champagne and beer. Division champs, at long last.

The Storm Chasers blasted the Round Rock Express 12-2 Wednesday night at Werner Park, then waited out a nail-biting 3-2 victory by Albuquerque over Memphis that ultimately gave the Omaha franchise its first postseason berth since 1999. The jubilant clubhouse reaction ranged from Sean O’Sullivan’s Michael Jackson dance exhibition to the playful antics of fan-favorite Irving Falu to the knowing smile of Jeff Suppan, a veteran of clubhouse celebrations on the grandest stage.

Nearly four hours earlier, the short-handed Chasers found themselves in a 2-0 hole to the Express just three batters into the game. Without Clint Robinson or Kila Ka’aihue in the lineup and with PCL Pitcher of the Year Luis Mendoza on the ropes, the chances of a clinch on this night looked bleak.

But one by one, role players from top to bottom collected base hit after base hit. When it was all said and done, the Chasers had amassed 18 hits, more than they had collected in any previous game at Werner Park this season. Lineups featuring Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas and Johnny Giavotella could not match the output of a lineup starring Joaquin Arias, Kurt Mertins and Yamaico Navarro.

Rightfielder Lorenzo Cain went 5-for-5 on the night for the Chasers, contributing five of the team’s 14 singles. Mertins went 3-for-5 with a run-scoring triple, Falu singled, tripled and drove in three and Jarrod Dyson went 2-for-5 with a homer and three RBI of his own.

Mendoza (12-5) settled down after allowing doubles to the first three batters of the game, surrendering just one more hit over six innings of work. He finished the game with an ERA of 2.19, still more than a run better than his nearest competitor in the PCL. Eric Hurley (8-3) took the loss for the Express, allowing 10 runs in five innings pitched.

The Chasers and Express will finish up their four-game series on Thursday at Werner Park on Fan Appreciation Night. First pitch from Werner Park is set for 7:05.

Meanwhile, tickets for the Omaha vs. Round Rock American Conference Championship Series went on sale immediately. The first game of the post-season at Werner Park is scheduled for Friday, September 9 at 7:05 p.m., with “if necessary” games set for Saturday, Sept. 10 at 1:05 p.m. and Sunday, Sept. 11 at 2:05 p.m. Tickets can be purchased at the Werner Park ticket office, by phone at (402) 738-5100 or online at www.omahastormchasers.com. Ticket office hours are 10 a.m. to 6 p.m.

ROUND ROCK, Texas – The Pacific Coast League today announced the 2011 All-PCL Team, led by a league-most three players from the Omaha Storm Chasers.

The Storm Chasers, currently the American Northern Division leader, are represented by second baseman Johnny Giavotella, designated hitter Clint Robinson, and right-handed pitcher Luis Mendoza. Giavotella, who was promoted to Kansas City on August 5th, leads all PCL second baseman with a .338 batting average while Robinson has hit 23 homers and driven in 97 runs in 130 games. Omaha’s ace, Mendoza, has won 11 decisions to accompany his league-best 2.15 earned run average.

The Sacramento River Cats and Reno Aces are the only other teams represented by more than one player. Catcher Anthony Recker (.287, 16 HR) and outfielder Jai Miller (30 HR, 77 RBI) helped power the River Cats to their fifth consecutive Pacific Southern Division crown. Reno’s Cody Ransom, who established new single-season franchise-records for Reno in home runs and RBI, and Collin Cowgill, the only PCL player to have more than 10 home runs and 30 stolen bases this season, were named to the squad as shortstop and outfielder, respectively.

The PCL’s home run leader, Bryan LaHair, was voted to the team as the first baseman. LaHair, 28, is enjoying a career-year with the Iowa Cubs, as he has posted new career-highs in home runs (36) and runs scored (89) while his batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage are the highest for a single-season in his career with eight games remaining this season. He currently leads the PCL in home runs, runs batted in, total bases and extra-base hits.

Along with Cowgill, Giavotella and Robinson, third baseman Taylor Green of the Nashville Sounds and outfielder Joey Butler of the Round Rock Express bring the total number of the first-year Triple-A players on the All-PCL Team to five. In his sixth professional season, Green leads the Sounds in batting average, OBP and doubles over his 120 games played. Drafted by the Texas Rangers in the 15th round of the 2008 June Draft, Butler is batting .326 with 27 doubles and 12 home runs for the American Southern Division champs.

Completing the All-PCL pitching staff, Dana Eveland of the Albuquerque Isotopes was selected as the left-handed pitcher, and Victor Marte of the Memphis Redbirds was named to the team as the top reliever. Eveland, who is one of seven players to be named to the PCL’s Mid-Season and Post-Season All-Star teams this year, has won 12 decisions, the second-most in the league, to go along with 107 strikeouts. Marte has made 51 appearances for Memphis, posting a 1.53 ERA and tallying a PCL-best 28 saves.

Storm Chasers Well-Represented on All-PCL Team
Giavotella, Mendoza, Robinson make up 25 percent of exclusive roster

OMAHA, Neb. — The Omaha Storm Chasers’ storybook inaugural season added another chapter Monday, as the Pacific Coast League named Johnny Giavotella, Luis Mendoza and Clint Robinson to its prestigious 12-member All-PCL Team.

Giavotella, the All-PCL second baseman, batted .338 with nine home runs, 72 RBI, 34 doubles and 67 runs scored in 110 games with the Storm Chasers this season. He was honored as the league’s All-Star representative at second base and was also named the PCL Player of the Month for June, during which he batted .398 (49-for-123). He was promoted to the Kansas City Royals on August 5.

Right-hander Luis Mendoza was one of three pitchers named to the squad. The 27-year-old has an 11-5 record with a league-leading 2.15 ERA for the Chasers, more than a full run better than his nearest competitor. He has dominated the league since May 26, compiling a 10-2 record with a 1.24 ERA over 108.2 innings pitched, including 9-0 with a 1.19 ERA in 10 road appearances. He threw a complete-game, one-hit shutout at Memphis on July 18.

Clint Robinson, honored as the designated hitter for the All-PCL Team, has been one of the hottest hitters in the league over the past two-and-a-half weeks, pushing his season numbers into awe-inspiring territory. The 6-foot-5, left-handed slugger is batting .478 with four home runs, 24 RBI and 11 doubles in his past 18 games, giving him a season average of .329 with 23 homers, 97 RBI and 35 doubles. His 35 doubles rank second on the all-time single-season franchise list, one ahead of Giavotella and two off of the record of 37.

Joining the Omaha trio are catcher Anthony Recker of Sacramento, first baseman Bryan LaHair of Iowa, third baseman Taylor Green of Nashville, shortstop Cody Ransom of Reno and outfielders Joey Butler (Round Rock), Collin Cowgill (Reno) and Jai Miller (Sacramento). Albuquerque left-handed starting pitcher Dana Eveland and Memphis closer Victor Marte round out the 12-member squad. Including Miller and Marte, five of the 12 players have played for Omaha during the past two seasons.

Each of the Storm Chasers’ three representatives were also named to the Pacific Coast League All-Star squad in Salt Lake, though that roster had 30 players and representation from each club.

The All-PCL team, which features players from just eight of the 16 PCL clubs, was voted on by the league’s field managers, general managers and media.

The St. Louis Cardinals and the National League Central division crown seemed to be synomonous with each other. Year in and year out it was the Cardinals who sat at the top of the standing, but in recent years the tide has changed.

No longer are the Cardinals the lock they once were, especially after last season witnessed them tumble toward the finish line — losing 13 of 15 games during one horrific stretch. The upstart Cincinnati Reds were the Cards kryptonite, winning a few key series down the stretch to show them who the real big boys were.

This season the Cardinals were not even the odds-on favorite to win the division crown, but instead that honor was bestowed upon the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brewers, possessing a potent offense and a great pitching staff were an easy pick over the mostly no-name Cardinals.

However, it was the Cardinals and their under-the-radar acquisitions that made the most noise throughout the seasons early going. It was the Cardinals who sat atop the division, reminiscent of old times while the preseason favorites struggled to play with consistency.

Unfortunately the good vibes the Cards had earlier this season have not continued due to a variety of reasons: The most obvious one is injuries playing a major toll. Perennial N.L. MVP candidate Albert Pujols suffered an injury and faced a DL stint, causing the team to struggle.

In the opening game of a pivotal showdown against the Brewers, rookie righty Lance Lynn suffered an injury to his oblique, most likely sending him to the DL. Lynn has made all of 18 appearances, but already has a place in the Cards’ faithful hearts.

Lynn hasn’t been lights out like other rookie phenoms, but he has been effective out of the bullpen, giving them the spark they need. Since he joined the ranks of the bullpen, the staff has compiled an ERA over a run better than their season average.

With the Cardinals now trailing the Brewers by four games and the date August 10, time is not in their favor, but they have a roster in place that is built to withstand injuries and compete for the division crown.

For years pitchers would never pitch to Pujols because they did not fear the hitter who came after him in the lineup, but those days are long over. The Cardinals, never one to spend big on free-agents, paid an exorbitant amount to keep Matt Holliday after a mid-season trade.

Holliday has supplied St. Louis with another power bat to help take some of the pressure off of Pujols while adding some toward the opposition. However, arguably it has been an under the radar pickup who has supplied even more pop

While Holliday has blasted 18 home runs, obviously still struggling without the benefit of playing in Coors Field, Lance Berkman has found the fountain of youth.

After a year so disastrous that many thought he was done, the Cards took a chance and found lightning in a bottle. Berkman has blasted 28 home runs, which leads the team, while playing adequate defense in the outfield.

With three power hitters in their lineup, the Cards should be fine in the offensive side of the ball. For them to overtake the Brewers, the Cards need to pitch better than them, and win their head to head match-ups.

Following their three game set against the Brew Crew, the Cardinals will still have six games left against the division leaders. Those six games will almost certainly determine the division winner.

If the Cardinals play up to the level they had earlier this year, the lights will be on in Busch for October. If not, then a long winter awaits for the Cards and their fans.

Ryan Lazo is a contributing writer to I70 Baseball. He is also a Senior Writer for BaseballDigest.com. He can be reached at RMLazo13@gmail.com, followed on Twitter @RMLazo13 and read his blog Artificially Enhanced.

Fasten your seatbelts, Cardinals’ fans. The Red Birds are 60 games from the finish line and are sure to be bumping fenders with anywhere from one to three division rivals as they race down the home stretch. The Cardinals find them self in a virtual three-way tie for first in the NL Central with the Reds not lagging far behind the leaders. It reminds me of the 3-horse race in the division back in 2008… only that year it was the Cardinals, Brewers, and Cubs vying for not only the division crown, but the wildcard as well. Unfortunately, this edition of the race reminds me of 2008 in another way – the Cardinals were historically bad holding leads late in games.

A quick history lesson for you: with 60 games to go in the 2008 season, the Cardinals were 2 games out first place in the central, and a game behind the Brewers for the top spot in the wild card race. Does anyone remember how the team finished?
- 11.5 games behind the Cubs for the division title
- 4 games behind the Brewers for the wild card spot… and for good measure…
- ½ game behind the Astros for 3rd place, a team who was 10 games behind the Cardinals with 60 games to go in the season.

In other words, yikes.

So what happened? The team carried a lead into the 8th inning that year 105 times… tops in all of baseball. But the Cardinals failed to seal the deal in 19 of those games, settling for a record of 86-76 when they could’ve been 105-57 (or perhaps more realistically, 95-67, which would’ve still be good enough to clinch a postseason berth).

And that brings us to today. As of now, the Cardinals have already lost 11 games in which they held the lead entering the 8th inning. What stings even more is that 4 times they held the lead with 2 outs in the 9th and failed to get the victory. Making just those four game wins instead of losses would have the Cardinals sitting in the drivers’ seat of the division at 58-44 and a 4 game lead on the Pirates (and just a game behind Atlanta for the wildcard as extra insurance).

Instead, the Cardinals are 54-48, tied with the Pirates, a ½ game ahead of the Brewers, and the Reds are still within shouting distance. But unlike 2008, the blame can’t solely be directed on the bullpen. This season, the defense has let the team down just as often.
The defense has already cost St. Louis three wins since the All-Star Break. Yes, really.

- July 15th in Cincinnati, a throwing error in the 7th by David Freese sets up a 2 run inning, the Cardinals lose by a run on a walk-off home run by Brandon Phillips.
- July 20th in New York, an 8th inning throwing error by Daniel Descalso sets up the tying run in an extra inning loss.
- July 24th in Pittsburgh, a 10th inning throwing set up the winning run.
More Examples:
- April 8th in San Francisco, Albert Pujols’ 12th inning error (the team’s 3rd of the game) sets up the winning run.
- April 9th in San Francisco, Colby Rasmus drops a fly ball that would’ve been the final out of the game, allowing the tying and winning runs to score.
- April 26th in Houston, a 9th inning passed ball and throwing error set up the tying and winning runs.
- May 1st in Atlanta, a dropped 9th inning pop-up (yes, I said pop-up) allows the eventual winning run to reach base and score.

As much as those losses hurt, they’re in the past. The errors and blown saves will continue to stack up just like they did in 2008. That’s unless GM John Mozeliak makes some improvements before the trade deadline. Three years ago, the Cardinals scooped up Mark DeRosa from the Indians in exchange for budding reliever, Chris Perez (ouch).

Can the Cardinals continue to hang around in the playoff race without making a big splash? I actually believe they can and will. But I also think the Brewers are the favorites to come away with the division crown if St. Louis doesn’t do something.

Maybe it’s a big trade for a reliever. Perhaps it’s a move that shores up the defense.

Or maybe, they figure out ways to finish games.

The Royals surprising start thus far has been built on middle of the order production, defense and shutdown performances from a very young bullpen. As expected, the weak link has been the starting pitching. Royals starters are sporting a collective 5.17 ERA, worst in the American League. That the team with the worst starting ERA has jumped out to a 17-14 record is a minor miracle. It is also the major factor preventing many fans from fully buying into this team as a contender just yet.

photo by Minda Haas

I have delved deep into the numbers to see how the Royals rotation stacks up within the AL Central. The results probably will not be encouraging to the Royals faithful, though there is some reason to hope for minor improvement.

My ranking of the rotations (through May 4):

The White Sox, Indians, and Tigers clearly have the superior rotations to this point, with the Twins and Royals lagging far behind. But here is one reason for (slight) optimism I found:

While the starters have so far allowed runs at a terrible rate, their xFIP suggests some of that is bad luck and the staff ERA has the potential to decrease significantly. The bad news is that their 4.30 xFIP is still only good for fourth in the division.

Here is how that ERA/xFIP discrepancy is distributed among the Royals starters:

Those ugly ERAs from Davies, Francis, and Hochevar are three of the worst five among ALC starters, but there is significant room for improvement if their xFIPs are any indication. Those three have the most “unlucky” ERA to xFIP ratio among ALC starters. The biggest reason I see for this is the high rate of fly balls that are leaving the park: 13% of fly balls have gone for home runs against KC starters, highest in the majors, and a number that should dip closer to the norm of 9.5-10%.

But even with room to expect improvement, the starting staff as now made up will continue to be the achilles’ heel of the 2011 Royals and temper dreams of contending for the division crown. If the team continues overcoming the starting rotation and can hang around .500 or better, the Royals front office will face critical decisions about promoting one or more of the arms from the farm. People who know about these things suggest Mike Montgomery and Danny Duffy are close and could have an impact. The early promotion of Eric Hosmer suggests one or more of those pitchers could follow him to KC soon. If the offense, defense and bullpen can carry on at current levels, a shot in the arm to the rotation could really start to make this team interesting.

For more nerd kicks, a look at the AL Central pitchers by their average game score (through May 4):

You may follow Aaron Stilley on the Tweeties if you are into that kind of thing.

Skip Schumaker is a true Cardinal. St. Louis made Schumaker its 5^th round selection in the 2001 draft, and 4 years later he made his big league debut. Schumaker played shortstop at U.C. Santa Barbara before being converted to an outfield as a pro. He spent the next eight years shagging fly balls before he returned to his infield “roots” in 2009…becoming the Cardinals’ everyday second baseman. The reason for the move was twofold: 1) the Cardinals had a surplus of outfielders, and 2) the Cardinals needed more offensive production from second base.

After a successful 2009 season, and really two others before that, Schumaker significantly struggled at the plate in 2010. He was coming off a season in which he set career highs in walks (52), on base percentage (.364), and doubles (34); good numbers for any leadoff hitter. But in 2010, the career .291 hitter, who had hit above .300 for three straight season, saw his average drop to a career low of .265. Skip’s on base percentage naturally followed, dropping from .364 to .328. As a result, he scored 19 less runs in 2010 than he did in 2009, and those 19 runs could’ve arguably helped the Cardinals win the additional 5 games they needed to catch the Cincinnati Reds last year. His doubles were nearly cut in half (down from 34 in 2009 to 18 in 2010), and even his fielding took a hit — nearly doubling from 9 errors at 2^nd base in 2009 to 16 last year.

The Cardinals are faced with a lot of question marks going into the 2011 season, and Schumaker is one of them. Will he return to his reliable self… a .300 average with a good OBP to set the table for the likes of Pujols, Holliday, and Berkman? Or will he continue to struggle at the plate as he did last year? For now, Skip is penciled in as the leadoff hitter. For the Cardinals’ team…and specifically its offense…to have a successful year and take a run at the division crown, Schumaker is going to have to set the table for the big bats behind him. Having Albert Pujols hit with no one on base doesn’t do any good.

Two big bats landed in the NL central this December. One, Lance Berkman, returns to the division and will don a once rival St. Louis Cardinal’s jersey. The other, Carlos Pena, makes his first appearance in the National League and joins a different Cardinal rival, the Chicago Cubs.

Each of the players received more money by accepting one-year deals with their respective clubs. Pena signed for 1 year at $10M and Berkman signed on for 1 year at $8M. With the Cards-Cubs rivalry and the similarity in the contracts let’s take a look at each addition and see the value they may bring to their teams as they battle for the same division crown.

Carlos Pena, 32, once a top ten draft pick, struggled to find his way early in his career. With stops in Texas, Detroit, Boston, and other places, Pena finally made his mark in Tampa with the Rays. In 2007, at age 29, Pena had his career year belting 46 home runs and driving in 121, all while batting .282. From 2007-2009 Pena was one of the more valuable first basemen in the league. Last year, Pena plummeted in production squeaking out a mere .196 AVG. His power was still evident in his 28 home runs, but even with that his ISO (SLG-AVG) dipped from .310 down to .211. Pena did suffer from a little more bad luck on balls hit into play (.222 BABIP) and from hitting more ground balls in general (1.11 GB/FB). Some of that should rebound this next season as he moves to a more hitter-friendly field- according to StatCorner, Tropicana Field depresses HR production by 11 percent compared to a neutral park, while Wrigley increases it by 19 percent. Offensively, Pena should be able to rebound. While his peak performance days are most likely behind him, he could near his career line .241/.351/.490.

Lance Berkman, enjoyed a consistent career as a Houston Astro. Since 1999, Houston’s mainstay, produced at a clip of .296/.409/.545. From 2000 to 2009, he hit 20+ home runs while playing both the outfield and first base. As a Cardinal, Berkman will be patrolling the outfield, either left or right, but also has some experience in center. However, he has not played outfield since 2007. The good news is that Cardinal’s outfielders face fewer fly balls than most teams as they are fueled by a ground ball pitching staff. In any regard, the front office still sees enough left in the 34 year-old’s tank to march him out to the outfield for 2011.

Like Pena, Berkman is coming off a down season. His .248/14/58 line was his career worst since becoming a regular. Some of that production decline came because of Berkman missing the first two weeks of the season after knee surgery; some of it also comes from the switch hitter’s inability to hit verses lefty pitching. From 2008 to 2010, his average while batting right against lefty pitching has slid from .277, to .230, to. 171. As a switch hitter, Berkman will probably face lefties less as LaRussa will find ways to move his bat down in the order against a left-handed starter or pinch hit for him against a left handed pitcher late. Along, with the natural production decline that comes with age and eliminating some left-handed pitching match-ups, Berkman should be able to rest some where just shy of his 2009 line of .274, .399, .509.

When one compares the two, Pena fills a big hole for the Cubs at first base and carries more offensive weight on his shoulders, as Chicago will be counting on his production to supplant Derrek Lee. Pena still has good plate discipline and is excellent at taking the walk. His defense at first is not as good as the three-time gold-glove winner Lee but Pena did garner a gold glove of his own in 2008. At $2M more per year, with the greater need the Cubs had, the difference in salary might be a bit more justifiable for the Cubs.

At $2M less a year and a track record that has screamed nothing but consistent production, the Cardinals have to be happy with what they have received in Berkman. As the third big bat in the line-up (depending on what Rasmus can produce) he should be able to “earn” what the Cardinals will pay him.

With the Cubs needs, and what they were willing to pay, one wonders why they did not make a run at Berkman. Paul Konerko, Adam Dunn, or even an attempt to bring back D. Lee would have also made some sense. However, when you run down the list of sizeable long term contracts in Chicago (Soriano, Zambrano, Ramirez), the long-term deal may have been exactly what the team was looking to stay away from, especially in a declining player. Perhaps the organization will slide Ramirez over to first as the break in prospect Josh Vitters at the hot corner in 2012.

Obviously, the proverbial proof will be in the pudding. If both aging sluggers remain healthy and produce they will no doubt have an impact on the division race and in perhaps a big at-bat or two in the timeless Cards/Cubs rivalry.