Tag Archive | "Different Story"

Suds & Duds: Here’s To The High Life, Buds

Game. Five. (see what I did there?)

Last week, I wrote about how saying, reading or hearing the words, “Game five” doesn’t quite carry the same weight at “Game seven”. Last Friday, “Game 5” meant the final and elimination game in the series between the Cardinals and Phillies: Carpenter vs. Halladay, season on the line, loser goes fishing…etc, etc. This week, it’s a different story-more about the momentum than anything.

Tonight, Zack Greinke and Jamie Garcia square off at Busch Stadium to determine which team will take a 3-2 series lead into Miller Park on Sunday. In game 1, Greinke continued his streak of not losing a game at home, despite giving up 6 earned runs, and posting an ERA of 9.00 on Saturday. A 16-6 record during the regular season, all six of Greinke’s losses came on the road in 2011, the most recent one being on September 7th in, where else but in St. Louis. That night, Zack Greinke and Chris Carpenter went head-to-head for the third time of the season, and Carp finally got the win. Hard telling who, if anyone, could’ve beaten him that night, as the Cardinals’ right-handed workhorse went 9 innings, threw 97 pitches, scattering a meager 4 hits.

But that’s ancient history now.

Metaphoric future photography at work: Jason Motte at Miller Park this coming Sunday

Garcia must bring his “A game” tonight, and must keep his mind about him. I cannot overstate this. Jamie generally pitches well in home games, and the Cardinals are going to need that tonight. The Brewers own the best home record in all of baseball, and the redbirds will have their work cut out for them as they head north following tonight’s game, even if the trip is a “happy flight”. (The redbirds are on a ridiculous streak of winning on getaway day. The last time they lost on getaway day? August 3rd.) I’d say even taking a 3-2 series lead into Miller Park for the Cards is akin to a firefighter walking into a burning house. Sure, there’s some protection and certain safety measures in place. But in a burning house, anything can happen–the safest bet is to get in, do your job, and get out as quickly as possible.
That said, the Cardinals are more than capable of winning in Milwaukee, and I’m no more or less scared of elimination by playing a game or two in Miller Park than I’ve been scared of elimination at any point over the last two months. The good news is that it seems the Cardinals have become quite comfortable playing with their collective backs against the wall.
So, headed into tonight’s action, here are a few things I think could be big:
  • Garcia HAS to give the Cardinals some innings tonight

St. Louis starters have not gone deep into games this series, and even with an extra arm out in the bullpen, I’d rather not see every guy every night, if at all possible. Six innings is the absolute bare minimum for Garcia tonight, between seven and eight is ideal, pitch counts be damned. The World Series starts on Wednesday, so Garcia won’t pitch for at least another week. I say let him throw ‘til his arm (or head) simply can’t take anymore.

  • Keep men off base in front of Braun & Fielder

The Cards’ staff has done a decent job of this so far in the series, and I think that’s a big key to continued success, and sustained life in this series.

  • A lineup shuffle may be in order

Tony LaRussa is well-known among Cardinals fans and others in baseball for several things, not the least of which is an unpredictable lineup card every night. A friend and I were texting Thursday night, and the topic of Molina’s spot in the lineup came up. He’s obviously a great candidate for double-plays, given his lack of speed. One could make the argument that everyone in the Cardinals lineup is a good candidate, though, citing 169 reasons as to why. I could understand the mentality of not wanting to bat him 8th, as “having the pitcher bunt Molina over” doesn’t even sound right, let alone make sense in a lot of situations. But, I think if we’ve seen nothing else during this series, an average of nearly eleven runs scored per game thus far in the NLCS tells us that these games will probably not come down to the need to play for one run. These two teams each have a very capable offense, and having Molina clogging up the bases could turn out to possibly stifle a rally in those middle innings, and end up being the difference in the game. How much bigger could the first inning of game 3 been, had Yadi not hit into that 4-6-3? Fortunately the 4 runs held up, and were enough.

Either way, tonight’s contest will be big for momentum, no matter which team comes out on top. As a side note: it feels kind of good that we’ve made it through this much of Friday without being bombarded with all the “this could be the last time we see Pujols at Busch wearing the birds on the bat” stuff that we’ll surely hear on the broadcasts tonight. One thing is for sure about the eventual National League Champions: we will all be able to point to 2011 the next time someone refers to our division as the “Comedy Central”.

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Projecting Colby Rasmus As A Padre

Colby Rasmus’ name keeps surfacing as potential trade bait dangled by the Cardinals. Heath Bell is one of several interesting players on a team going nowhere. Would the Cardinals and Padres swing a deal?

Bernie Miklasz dropped this paragraph into his 14 July article.

Let’s face it: Rasmus is Mozeliak’s most attractive trade chip. But it would be asinine to give Rasmus away in a fit of impatience. It would be stupid to hand Rasmus away for a summer rental – a pending free agent like Heath Bell.

Bell is the highest paid San Diego Padre, and is indeed in the last year of his contract. He has also expressed an interest in returning to the Padres after this season regardless of whether or not he is traded, and speculation abounds he might take a below-market deal specifically so he could do that. Bernie Miklasz is 100% correct – trading Rasmus to San Diego for Bell would be foolhardy. The Cardinals would only have Bell in the fold for two months, and despite the best efforts of Cardinal Nation, Bell really connects in San Diego, a military town (Bell’s dad is a former Marine).

There are two other bullpen arms in San Diego widely rumored to be available, namely Chad Qualls and Mike Adams. Should GM John Mozeliak consider either of these players instead of Bell? Qualls, long familiar to Cardinal fans after his years in Houston, has been a solid member of the Padres bullpen in 2011. He is also a free agent at season’s end; if the team is unwilling to give Rasmus to San Diego for (statistically) the best closer in the National League they certainly won’t do it for Qualls, just another middle reliever at this point in his career.

Mike Adams is a slightly different story, largely because he has one more year of arbitration before he becomes a free agent. Adams has closer stuff, and has been the best and most reliable arm out of the Padre bullpen. Adams’ ERA+ of 272 easily outdistances Bell’s 148. We all know how badly the Cardinals could use a reliable arm at the back of their bullpen. Eduardo Sanchez and Fernando Salas have done well in the late innings, but both are rookies. Additionally Sanchez experienced arm fatigue bad enough to send him to the DL, while Salas has looked a little shaky in his last few appearances before the All-Star Break. All of that makes Adams attractive.

It would seem unlikely Mozeliak will make that move. First, like Qualls, Adams is 32 (Bell is 33). Second, he’s never closed at the major league level. Third, there is a history of arm trouble in his past. Fourth, and probably most important, the one position San Diego has significant depth at is outfield. Not counting Ryan Ludwick – another trade possibility who likely won’t be in San Diego come August first – the Padres boast a budding All-Star in Cameron Maybin, as well as Will Venable and Chris Denorfia on the major league roster. In the high minors they have several OF who could step in, including Aaron Cunningham, Kyle Blanks, Eric Patterson and Cedric Hunter. San Diego has several positions with a dearth of depth in their minor league system, most notably second base and shortstop. Outfield is not one of them. Why would Padres GM Jed Hoyer acquire another player for an already overcrowded position?

Of course, these facts that did not stop SI’s Jon Heyman from speculating Thursday on local San Diego sportsradio about rumors he’s heard regarding an Adams for Rasmus deal.

While the Cardinals will likely bolster their bullpen at the deadline, and while San Diego has the second-best bullpen in the NL at the break, St Louis would be silly to trade Colby Rasmus to San Diego to get one of those arms. Colby Rasmus will not be a San Diego Padre.

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Taking a Look…

A Royal Review

Opening up at home after a good spring training is just the thing this young ball club needed after showing off to mainly Arizona natives and a handful or reporters. A chance to show off their energy that made this writer intrigued for the first time in awhile.

I was extremely skeptical of what this team would look like after seeing the off-season transactions that took place. Two all-star caliber players off to new teams, a veteran taking one for the team (good job Gil) and lots of young, inexperienced but very energetic and enthused players.

Opening Day, the bats were as cool as the weather. The Royals went scoreless until late in the game and came up short in the end. However, the defense committed three errors, which was a problem reminiscent of last season. Any time you commit an error, it gives you an extra out and the Royals gave a whole extra inning to the Angels on Thursday.

Friday night was a different story however. The game was tight from start to finish despite the both defenses making what could have been costly errors but did not come back to haunt either team. However, in the bottom of the ninth Kila Ka’aihue blasted a ball over the right field wall for the game winning home run.

Coming Up

The Royals will finish their four game series with the Angels with a game on Saturday and Sunday. It may also be noted that there will be a special double header following Saturday’s game featuring the Storm Chasers and the Naturals, the Royals AAA and AA affiliates, respectively.

The Royals then have Monday off as they prepare to host the Chicago White Sox for a quick two game series. After that series, the Royals will have another day off before having a weekend series against another central division foe, the Detroit Tigers.

The Royals struggled against both of these teams last year. Accumulating a below par 16-20 combined record against these teams last year, the Royals look to improve upon those numbers. If they are going to compete this year, they are going to have to be able to consistently play well against division opponents.

Having these two days off this coming week will keep the Royals well rested before hitting a string of thirteen straight playing days beginning on April 12. The good news is that eight of those thirteen games are at home and against teams that finished off last season in just as bad shape as the Royals did (Cleveland and Seattle). However, before the Royals can get to these two teams, the Royals have to go to Detroit and then to Minnesota.

Solid pitching, timely hitting and executing on defense are the ways to win ball games. If the Royals can do that, they can compete with anyone.

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Cardinals Farm Report

Lance Lynn
Starting Pitcher
AAA-Memphis
23-years-old
Bats: Right
Throws: Right
Height: 6’5″
Weight: 250 lbs
Drafted by the Cardinals in the 1st round (39th pick) of the 2008 MLB June Amateur Draft
Just like every Saturday here on i70baseball, the Cardinal Farm Report spotlights one of the prized Cardinal minor leaguers. This week, it is Lance Lynn, the struggling (yet promising) Cardinal prospect.

YEAR AGE TEAM W L ERA GS IP SO WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
2008 21 2 1 1 1.35 6 26.2 29 0.975 6.8 0.7 2.0 9.8 4.83
2008 21 BAT 1 0 0.96 4 18.2 22 0.857 5.8 0.0 1.9 10.6 5.50
2008 21 QC 0 1 2.25 2 8.0 7 1.250 9.0 2.2 2.2 7.9 3.50
2009 22 3 11 4 2.85 25 148.2 124 1.312 8.4 0.3 3.5 7.5 2.18
2009 22 PB 0 0 2.30 2 15.2 17 1.213 9.2 0.0 1.7 9.8 5.67
2009 22 SPR 11 4 2.92 22 126.1 98 1.330 8.3 0.4 3.6 7.0 1.92
2009 22 MEM 0 0 2.70 1 6.2 9 1.200 6.8 0.0 4.0 12.2 3.00
2010 23 MEM 10 8 5.17 24 134.0 110 1.418 9.4 1.1 3.4 7.4 2.20

As you can see, Lynn had great seasons in 2008 and 2009. Combining both years, he went 12-5 with a 2.61 ERA and 153 strikeouts in 175 1/3 innings. If you want to put that into perspective, Jaime Garcia is on pace to pitch 181 innings with St. Louis this season. So you can make of that what you wish.

2010 has obviously been a different story for Mr. Lynn. Inconsistent is the best word to use. Disappointing would be the next.

Why is he struggling? Nobody really knows. His coaches are saying his “stuff” is as good as ever, there are no real flaws in his mechanics, and his command has not gotten any worse.

Was he brought up too quickly? This is only his second full Minor League season, and he’s already in Triple-A. But then again, he’s 23 and he did pitch in college for three seasons. You can’t hardly blame the organization for not being afraid to promote him. After all, he did dominate every league he played in until this year.

When the Cardinals drafted him in the first round two years ago, everybody said the main thing he needed to improve on was his control. However, his BB/9 rates in 2010 aren’t horrible, and he’s actually walking less this year compared to last. The stat that really pops out to me is the HR/9 rate. In over 148 innings last season, he gave up only five home runs in 25 starts. So far this year, through 24 starts, Lynn has already given up 17 big flies. Something is obviously wrong there.

I suppose it could go back to control. Some pitchers focus so intently on throwing strikes, they forget to think about where exactly the ball is going to end up in the strike zone. This could very well be what’s happening in Lynn’s case.

The biggest problem though, is that every once in a while he goes out on the mound and gives up seven or eight runs. I was talking to a guy on twitter who watched Lynn throw seven innings of no-hit baseball against Oklahoma City. I on the other hand, was at the New Orleans game when he gave up eight runs in three innings. Again, inconsistency.

Four games in particular (he allowed eight runs once, seven runs twice, and six runs once) are killing his numbers. Taking those four games out, his ERA is hovering right around 3.40. That’s great and all, but never knowing which pitcher is going to show up is never good. Maybe he is suffering from Kyle Lohse - syndrome, who knows?

Nevertheless, we are dealing with a 23-year-old, 6’5″, first-round starting pitcher that is in Triple-A already. That has “top-prospect” written all over it.

Lynn’s still very young, and extremely raw. If he can figure out whatever is holding him back this year, expect him to be in the big leagues after a successful 2011 season in Memphis.

MiLB WEEKLY ROUNDUP
AAA-Memphis Redbirds
Record to date: 69-57, second place in the PCL American North, 3 games behind Iowa.This past week: 4-2, including two series wins (Colorado Springs and Salt Lake)Transactions: Matt Scherer was assigned to Palm Beach from Memphis (3-1, 4.58 ERA, 29 SO, 37.1 IP in AAA), Tyler Greene was optioned to Memphis from Palm Beach (.297, 55 R, 10 SB, 64 AB in AAA), Steven Hill was optioned to Memphis from St. Louis (.280, 22 HR, 86 RBI, 361 AB in AA), Bryan Anderson was optioned to St. Louis from Memphis (.270, 12 HR, 42 RBI, 270 AB in AAA), Fernando Salas was optioned to Memphis from St. Louis (18 SV, 3.89 ERA, 44 SO, 34.2 IP in AAA)Coming up: The Redbirds will start a four-game set in Omaha before heading home for a long five-game series with Round Rock.
AA-Springfield Cardinals
Record to date: 30-23 in the second half (68-55 overall), third place in the TEX North, 5 games behind NW Arkansas.This past week: 5-1, won the San Antonio series 2-1, and swept Corpus Christi (four-game win streak)Transactions: Jermaine Curtis was assigned to Springfield from Palm Beach (.267, 34 R, 24 RBI, 191 AB in A), Thomas Pham was placed on the 7-day disabled list.Coming up: The Cardinals will head down to San Antonio before coming home to host NW Arkansas.
A-Palm Beach
Record to date: 31-23 in the second half (70-54 overall), first place in the FSL South.This past week: 4-4, including a crucial 1-3 series loss to BradentonTransactions: C.J. Beatty was assigned to Palm Beach from Quad Cities (.259, 40 R, 37 RBI, 251 AB in A-), Jermaine Curtis was assigned to Springfield from Palm Beach (.267, 34 R, 24 RBI, 191 AB in A), Matt Scherer was assigned to Palm Beach from Memphis (3-1, 4.58 ERA, 29 SO, 37.1 IP in AAA),Coming up: The Baby Birds will take on Charlotte and Fort Myers in a three-game sets.
POSITION PLAYER OF THE WEEK
Amaury Cazana, OF, Memphis
.480 AVG (12-for-25), .567 OBP, 8 runs, 3 home runs, 8 RBI, 5 walks
Amaury Cazana… the most interesting man in the world. He has been raking ever since being brought to the United States. On the season, Amaury is hitting .330/.370/.537 with 25 runs, 10 home runs, and 47 RBI in 207 at bats.
PITCHER OF THE WEEK
Kevin Thomas, SP, Palm Beach
W, 7 innings pitched, 3 hits, 1 run, 1 walks, 7 strikeouts
Thomas has had an amazing season and could have gotten this award several times, but this week he finally gets it. In 26 games this season, Thomas is 10-1 with a 2.27 ERA and 80 SO in 91 innings.

Justin Hulsey covers the Cardinals for i70baseball.com and his blog, Cardinals Front Office, that is also dedicated to Cardinal baseball.You may follow him on Twitter @JayHulsey by clicking here.

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