Tag Archive | "Cy Young Award"

Adam Wainwright back in domination mode

This is the Adam Wainwright the St. Louis Cardinals think is worth $97.5 million for the next five years.

a-Wainwright

In his second season after Tommy John surgery to repair a torn elbow ligament, Wainwright has returned to the Cy Young award-caliber pitcher he was before the injury.

He simply dominated the Washington Nationals on Tuesday and now has a 4-1 record and a 1.93 earned-run average with 37 strikeouts against one walk in five starts. He’s established himself once again as the Cardinals’ ace, and that’s a huge relief for everybody involved.

Wainwright had put together a 64-34 record with a 2.99 earned-run average in four seasons as a starter before he suffered the elbow injury at the beginning of spring training in 2011. He also possessed a fastball that reached 96 mph and one of the most devastating curveballs in Major League Baseball.

But that was gone for much of 2012. Wainwright had a winning record, 14-13, but he also had the highest ERA of his career, 3.94, and rarely had the dominating games he did before the injury. His fastball wasn’t as fast, his curveball didn’t break as sharply and too many of his pitches were up in the strike zone, which allowed hitters to often drive balls they hit for extra base hits.

He did have a few standout games, including a four-hit, complete-game shutout May 22 against the San Diego Padres, but he also had several poor stretches such as back-to-back games against the Nationals and New York Mets in late August and early September when he gave up a combined 11 runs in just 7.2 innings.

Wainwright said he was sure his good stuff would come back, but he hadn’t proved it until that complete game against the Padres.

“It’s a huge sense of relief; it’s a huge sense of feeling blessed,” he said after the shutout against San Diego. “Mentally, tonight, I was so much better than I had been. I’ve worked very hard to get back to where I am.”

However, not every game went so well, and the Cardinals had an important decision to make as the 2013 season approached. Wainwright was about to enter the final year of his contract, and the Cardinals had to figure out if they were going to keep him beyond this season.

Overall, his career track showed he could be as good a pitcher as there is the game, but his performances after the injury caused plenty of concern.

Yes, most pitchers come back from Tommy John surgery and pitch as well as they did beforehand, but successful surgery is never a guarantee, and Wainwright’s 2012 season offered no certainties that he would ever be the type of pitcher he was beforehand.

But the Cardinals signed him to the long-term deal March 28, just days before the season started. Now, it is a fairly big risk to give a five-year contract to a 31-year-old pitcher who had major elbow surgery, but so far Wainwright has made the Cardinals’ management look pretty smart.

And the best could be yet to come. Wainwright sliced through the Nationals on Tuesday for 8.1 shutout innings with nine strikeouts and his first walk of the season after 34.2 innings, which was fewer than six innings from the franchise record.

He threw a fastball at 94 mph, his curveball buckled Nationals hitters’ knees throughout the night and his control was as precise as ever.

Wainwright is back to the form Cardinals officials hoped they would see when they signed him to the contract extension, and now they can sit back and watch their investment dominate opposing hitters as if its 2010 again.

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Wainwright Comments Sound Similar To Pujols

St. Louis Cardinals ace starting pitcher Adam Wainwright announced Tuesday that contract talks between himself and the Cardinals have stalled for the time being. It’s not time to panic that Wainwright won’t come back, but the result wasn’t pretty the last time contract talks between the Cardinals and a superstar fell apart in spring training.

AlbertPujolsAdamWainwright

That last time was in 2011 when Albert Pujols arrived at spring training in Jupiter, Fla., with one year left on his contract with the Cardinals.

“I have made it very clear that I do not want any of this to be a distraction during the season, and it was for that reason, that we came up with a deadline,” Pujols said Feb. 16, 2011, the day contract talks officially ended until after the season.

Wainwright has not set that type of deadline, but time is becoming precious for him and the Cardinals to hammer out a new contract before the season starts.

Wainwright’s biggest concern is the same reason Pujols wanted to set a deadline in his negotiations: He doesn’t want the contract situation to become a distraction.

“There does need to be some urgency on both sides just to try to get this done if it’s going to happen before the season starts, just for peace of mind for everyone,” Wainwright said earlier in the week.

Unfortunately, the numbers aren’t adding up no matter how much both sides want to get a deal done. Sound familiar?

Pujols and the Cardinals both suggested they wanted to get a deal done quickly so Pujols would remain with the Cardinals for the remainder of his career, but it didn’t happen. Pujols is now set to enter the second year of his 10-year, $240-million deal with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.

As was the case with Pujols two years ago, Wainwright’s value is something of a mystery right now. He’s a Cy Young Award-caliber pitcher who is unquestionably going to be the ace of the Cardinals’ pitching staff this season. But, he’s also a 31-year-old pitcher who has already missed an entire season with an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery.

Pujols was considered the greatest player in the game heading into the 2011 season. He had just come off of a season when he hit .312 with 42 homeruns and 118 RBIs, but people still asked the same questions about Pujols as they are currently asking about Wainwright.

Pujols was 31 years old, and a long-term deal could create many problems for a team if he gets hurt or simply doesn’t produce nearly as much as he ages. That’s the great unknown that factors into all contract negotiations with star players.

Still, the Cardinals would do well to sign Wainwright before the season starts. They signed catcher Yadier Molina to a five-year, $75-million contract before the 2012 season, nobody said a word about contract negotiations for the rest of the season and Molina had the best season of his career.

Pujols and the Cardinals didn’t get a deal done a year earlier, and Pujols had the worst season of his career. That was the first time he hadn’t hit at least .300 or had at least 100 RBIs.

Wainwright’s value will also likely increase, possibly dramatically, if he has a stellar 2013 season. The price of pitching rises exponentially each offseason, and there is little doubt the asking price for good pitchers during next year’s free-agent period will again produce eye-popping contract numbers.

These are anxious times as the Cardinals and another star player battle through contract negotiations in February. And with each passing day, the situation only gets scarier with the possibility Wainwright might not be a Cardinal beyond 2013.

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Cooperstown Choices: David Wells

With the Hall Of Fame election announcement coming on January 9, 2013, it is time to review the ballot, go over the names, and decide who belongs in the Hall Of Fame.

There are twenty four men on the ballot for the first time this year and we will take a look at each one individually prior to official announcements. You can find all of the profiles in the I-70 Baseball Exclusives: Cooperstown Choices 2013 menu at the top of the page.

In this article, we take a look at David Wells

 

David Wells
The man known as “Boomer” would spend a remarkable 21 years with nine different major league teams.  During his long career, he would be selected to three All Star rosters and finish third in the Cy Young Award voting on two seperate occassions.

Year Tm W L ERA G GS CG SHO IP H R ER BB SO ERA+ SO/9
1987 TOR 4 3 3.99 18 2 0 0 29.1 37 14 13 12 32 115 9.8
1988 TOR 3 5 4.62 41 0 0 0 64.1 65 36 33 31 56 85 7.8
1989 TOR 7 4 2.40 54 0 0 0 86.1 66 25 23 28 78 153 8.1
1990 TOR 11 6 3.14 43 25 0 0 189.0 165 72 66 45 115 131 5.5
1991 TOR 15 10 3.72 40 28 2 0 198.1 188 88 82 49 106 114 4.8
1992 TOR 7 9 5.40 41 14 0 0 120.0 138 84 72 36 62 76 4.7
1993 DET 11 9 4.19 32 30 0 0 187.0 183 93 87 42 139 103 6.7
1994 DET 5 7 3.96 16 16 5 1 111.1 113 54 49 24 71 123 5.7
1995 TOT 16 8 3.24 29 29 6 0 203.0 194 88 73 53 133 141 5.9
1995 DET 10 3 3.04 18 18 3 0 130.1 120 54 44 37 83 159 5.7
1995 CIN 6 5 3.59 11 11 3 0 72.2 74 34 29 16 50 115 6.2
1996 BAL 11 14 5.14 34 34 3 0 224.1 247 132 128 51 130 97 5.2
1997 NYY 16 10 4.21 32 32 5 2 218.0 239 109 102 45 156 107 6.4
1998 NYY 18 4 3.49 30 30 8 5 214.1 195 86 83 29 163 127 6.8
1999 TOR 17 10 4.82 34 34 7 1 231.2 246 132 124 62 169 101 6.6
2000 TOR 20 8 4.11 35 35 9 1 229.2 266 115 105 31 166 123 6.5
2001 CHW 5 7 4.47 16 16 1 0 100.2 120 55 50 21 59 104 5.3
2002 NYY 19 7 3.75 31 31 2 1 206.1 210 100 86 45 137 118 6.0
2003 NYY 15 7 4.14 31 30 4 1 213.0 242 101 98 20 101 106 4.3
2004 SDP 12 8 3.73 31 31 0 0 195.2 203 85 81 20 101 104 4.6
2005 BOS 15 7 4.45 30 30 2 0 184.0 220 95 91 21 107 102 5.2
2006 TOT 3 5 4.42 13 13 0 0 75.1 97 41 37 12 38 102 4.5
2006 BOS 2 3 4.98 8 8 0 0 47.0 64 30 26 8 24 96 4.6
2006 SDP 1 2 3.49 5 5 0 0 28.1 33 11 11 4 14 117 4.4
2007 TOT 9 9 5.43 29 29 0 0 157.1 201 97 95 42 82 76 4.7
2007 SDP 5 8 5.54 22 22 0 0 118.2 156 74 73 33 63 72 4.8
2007 LAD 4 1 5.12 7 7 0 0 38.2 45 23 22 9 19 87 4.4
21 Yrs 239 157 4.13 660 489 54 12 3439.0 3635 1702 1578 719 2201 108 5.8
162 Game Avg. 14 9 4.13 39 29 3 1 204 215 101 93 43 130 108 5.8
W L ERA G GS CG SHO IP H R ER BB SO ERA+ SO/9
TOR (8 yrs) 84 55 4.06 306 138 18 2 1148.2 1171 566 518 294 784 110 6.1
NYY (4 yrs) 68 28 3.90 124 123 19 9 851.2 886 396 369 139 557 114 5.9
SDP (3 yrs) 18 18 4.33 58 58 0 0 342.2 392 170 165 57 178 91 4.7
DET (3 yrs) 26 19 3.78 66 64 8 1 428.2 416 201 180 103 293 122 6.2
BOS (2 yrs) 17 10 4.56 38 38 2 0 231.0 284 125 117 29 131 101 5.1
LAD (1 yr) 4 1 5.12 7 7 0 0 38.2 45 23 22 9 19 87 4.4
CIN (1 yr) 6 5 3.59 11 11 3 0 72.2 74 34 29 16 50 115 6.2
BAL (1 yr) 11 14 5.14 34 34 3 0 224.1 247 132 128 51 130 97 5.2
CHW (1 yr) 5 7 4.47 16 16 1 0 100.2 120 55 50 21 59 104 5.3
AL (19 yrs) 211 133 4.11 584 413 51 12 2985.0 3124 1475 1362 637 1954 110 5.9
NL (4 yrs) 28 24 4.28 76 76 3 0 454.0 511 227 216 82 247 94 4.9
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/12/2012.

Why He Should Get In
Boomer’s career numbers fall just short of the typical yardsticks we use for Cooperstown enshrinement, but that’s not to say he wasn’t a solid player.  While he only got to the coveted 20-win plateua once, he did find himself real close to it on multiple occassions.  He spent a good portion of his career pitching for losing ball clubs, which took an impact on his numbers.

Why He Should Not Get In
Losing clubs or not, Wells is not a Hall Of Famer.  His win total (239), strikeout total (2,201), strikeouts per nine innings (5.8) and earned run average (4.13) do not put him on par with his peers in Cooperstown.  Wells was a good, not great, pitcher.

Bill Ivie is the editor here at I-70 Baseball
Follow him on Twitter here.

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Cooperstown Choices: Curt Schilling

With the Hall Of Fame election announcement coming on January 9, 2013, it is time to review the ballot, go over the names, and decide who belongs in the Hall Of Fame.

There are twenty four men on the ballot for the first time this year and we will take a look at each one individually prior to official announcements. You can find all of the profiles in the I-70 Baseball Exclusives: Cooperstown Choices 2013 menu at the top of the page.

In this article, we take a look at Curt Schilling

 

Curt Schilling
The epitome of the term “big game pitcher”, Curt Schilling was the pitcher that helped the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Boston Red Sox to World Championships.  His 20 year career was highlighted with six all star appearances and finished second in the Cy Young Award voting three times.  He also finished in the top 15 of the Most Valuable Player voting four times in his career.

Year Tm W L ERA G GS CG SHO IP H R ER BB SO ERA+ SO/9
1988 BAL 0 3 9.82 4 4 0 0 14.2 22 19 16 10 4 41 2.5
1989 BAL 0 1 6.23 5 1 0 0 8.2 10 6 6 3 6 63 6.2
1990 BAL 1 2 2.54 35 0 0 0 46.0 38 13 13 19 32 151 6.3
1991 HOU 3 5 3.81 56 0 0 0 75.2 79 35 32 39 71 92 8.4
1992 PHI 14 11 2.35 42 26 10 4 226.1 165 67 59 59 147 150 5.8
1993 PHI 16 7 4.02 34 34 7 2 235.1 234 114 105 57 186 99 7.1
1994 PHI 2 8 4.48 13 13 1 0 82.1 87 42 41 28 58 96 6.3
1995 PHI 7 5 3.57 17 17 1 0 116.0 96 52 46 26 114 118 8.8
1996 PHI 9 10 3.19 26 26 8 2 183.1 149 69 65 50 182 134 8.9
1997 PHI 17 11 2.97 35 35 7 2 254.1 208 96 84 58 319 143 11.3
1998 PHI 15 14 3.25 35 35 15 2 268.2 236 101 97 61 300 134 10.0
1999 PHI 15 6 3.54 24 24 8 1 180.1 159 74 71 44 152 136 7.6
2000 TOT 11 12 3.81 29 29 8 2 210.1 204 90 89 45 168 124 7.2
2000 PHI 6 6 3.91 16 16 4 1 112.2 110 49 49 32 96 120 7.7
2000 ARI 5 6 3.69 13 13 4 1 97.2 94 41 40 13 72 130 6.6
2001 ARI 22 6 2.98 35 35 6 1 256.2 237 86 85 39 293 157 10.3
2002 ARI 23 7 3.23 36 35 5 1 259.1 218 95 93 33 316 140 11.0
2003 ARI 8 9 2.95 24 24 3 2 168.0 144 58 55 32 194 159 10.4
2004 BOS 21 6 3.26 32 32 3 0 226.2 206 84 82 35 203 148 8.1
2005 BOS 8 8 5.69 32 11 0 0 93.1 121 59 59 22 87 80 8.4
2006 BOS 15 7 3.97 31 31 0 0 204.0 220 90 90 28 183 120 8.1
2007 BOS 9 8 3.87 24 24 1 1 151.0 165 68 65 23 101 123 6.0
20 Yrs 216 146 3.46 569 436 83 20 3261.0 2998 1318 1253 711 3116 127 8.6
162 Game Avg. 15 10 3.46 38 30 6 1 221 203 89 85 48 211 127 8.6
W L ERA G GS CG SHO IP H R ER BB SO ERA+ SO/9
PHI (9 yrs) 101 78 3.35 242 226 61 14 1659.1 1444 664 617 415 1554 126 8.4
ARI (4 yrs) 58 28 3.14 108 107 18 5 781.2 693 280 273 117 875 148 10.1
BOS (4 yrs) 53 29 3.95 119 98 4 1 675.0 712 301 296 108 574 120 7.7
BAL (3 yrs) 1 6 4.54 44 5 0 0 69.1 70 38 35 32 42 85 5.5
HOU (1 yr) 3 5 3.81 56 0 0 0 75.2 79 35 32 39 71 92 8.4
NL (13 yrs) 162 111 3.30 406 333 79 19 2516.2 2216 979 922 571 2500 131 8.9
AL (7 yrs) 54 35 4.00 163 103 4 1 744.1 782 339 331 140 616 117 7.4
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/12/2012.

Why He Should Get In
Schilling’s case is one that is defined by his performance in big games and the postseason.  While most of his regular season stats put him as a borderline hall of famer, his postseason numbers are seldom rivaled.  With a 11-2 record, a 2.23 earned run average, an average of over 7 innings per start, a WHIP below one and a strikeout per nine innings over eight, his postseason prowess will have many clamoring for his induction based on the postseason alone.

Why He Should Not Get In
Yes, he was a huge pitcher in the postseason and had monumental success on the biggest stage.  That being said, he does not have the hardware to back up his claim to Cooperstown.  Finishing second multiple times for the Cy Young Award simply makes him the second best pitcher during those seasons.  According to Baseball-Reference, he ranks as a slighly above the average hall of fame pitcher (according to the Jaffe WAR Score System).  However, advanced statistics have yet to play a large influence on hall of fame voters.

Bill Ivie is the editor here at I-70 Baseball
Follow him on Twitter here.

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Cooperstown Choices: Jose Mesa

With the Hall Of Fame election announcement coming on January 9, 2013, it is time to review the ballot, go over the names, and decide who belongs in the Hall Of Fame.

There are twenty four men on the ballot for the first time this year and we will take a look at each one individually prior to official announcements. You can find all of the profiles in the I-70 Baseball Exclusives: Cooperstown Choices 2013 menu at the top of the page.

In this article, we take a look at Jose Mesa

 

Jose Mesa
Mesa’s 19 year major league career spanned eight teams, most notably the Cleveland Indians.  While in Cleveland he would be selected to two All Star rosters, finish second in the 1995 Cy Young Award voting and fourth in the 1995 Most Valuable Player voting.

Year Tm W L ERA G GS GF SV IP H R ER BB SO ERA+ SO/9
1987 BAL 1 3 6.03 6 5 0 0 31.1 38 23 21 15 17 73 4.9
1990 BAL 3 2 3.86 7 7 0 0 46.2 37 20 20 27 24 99 4.6
1991 BAL 6 11 5.97 23 23 0 0 123.2 151 86 82 62 64 67 4.7
1992 TOT 7 12 4.59 28 27 1 0 160.2 169 86 82 70 62 86 3.5
1992 BAL 3 8 5.19 13 12 1 0 67.2 77 41 39 27 22 77 2.9
1992 CLE 4 4 4.16 15 15 0 0 93.0 92 45 43 43 40 94 3.9
1993 CLE 10 12 4.92 34 33 0 0 208.2 232 122 114 62 118 88 5.1
1994 CLE 7 5 3.82 51 0 22 2 73.0 71 33 31 26 63 123 7.8
1995 CLE 3 0 1.13 62 0 57 46 64.0 49 9 8 17 58 418 8.2
1996 CLE 2 7 3.73 69 0 60 39 72.1 69 32 30 28 64 130 8.0
1997 CLE 4 4 2.40 66 0 38 16 82.1 83 28 22 28 69 195 7.5
1998 TOT 8 7 4.57 76 0 36 1 84.2 91 50 43 38 63 99 6.7
1998 CLE 3 4 5.17 44 0 18 1 54.0 61 36 31 20 35 92 5.8
1998 SFG 5 3 3.52 32 0 18 0 30.2 30 14 12 18 28 116 8.2
1999 SEA 3 6 4.98 68 0 60 33 68.2 84 42 38 40 42 100 5.5
2000 SEA 4 6 5.36 66 0 29 1 80.2 89 48 48 41 84 86 9.4
2001 PHI 3 3 2.34 71 0 59 42 69.1 65 26 18 20 59 182 7.7
2002 PHI 4 6 2.97 74 0 64 45 75.2 65 26 25 39 64 131 7.6
2003 PHI 5 7 6.52 61 0 47 24 58.0 71 44 42 31 45 62 7.0
2004 PIT 5 2 3.25 70 0 65 43 69.1 78 26 25 20 37 132 4.8
2005 PIT 2 8 4.76 55 0 48 27 56.2 61 30 30 26 37 88 5.9
2006 COL 1 5 3.86 79 0 26 1 72.1 73 32 31 36 39 128 4.9
2007 TOT 2 3 7.11 56 0 21 1 50.2 53 48 40 25 29 65 5.2
2007 DET 1 1 12.34 16 0 8 0 11.2 19 16 16 6 9 38 6.9
2007 PHI 1 2 5.54 40 0 13 1 39.0 34 32 24 19 20 83 4.6
19 Yrs 80 109 4.36 1022 95 633 321 1548.2 1629 811 750 651 1038 100 6.0
162 Game Avg. 5 7 4.36 62 6 39 20 94 99 49 46 40 63 100 6.0
W L ERA G GS GF SV IP H R ER BB SO ERA+ SO/9
CLE (7 yrs) 33 36 3.88 341 48 195 104 647.1 657 305 279 224 447 116 6.2
PHI (4 yrs) 13 18 4.05 246 0 183 112 242.0 235 128 109 109 188 102 7.0
BAL (4 yrs) 13 24 5.41 49 47 1 0 269.1 303 170 162 131 127 74 4.2
PIT (2 yrs) 7 10 3.93 125 0 113 70 126.0 139 56 55 46 74 108 5.3
SEA (2 yrs) 7 12 5.18 134 0 89 34 149.1 173 90 86 81 126 92 7.6
COL (1 yr) 1 5 3.86 79 0 26 1 72.1 73 32 31 36 39 128 4.9
SFG (1 yr) 5 3 3.52 32 0 18 0 30.2 30 14 12 18 28 116 8.2
DET (1 yr) 1 1 12.34 16 0 8 0 11.2 19 16 16 6 9 38 6.9
AL (13 yrs) 54 73 4.53 540 95 293 138 1077.2 1152 581 543 442 709 97 5.9
NL (8 yrs) 26 36 3.96 482 0 340 183 471.0 477 230 207 209 329 108 6.3
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/12/2012.

Why He Should Get In
His 321 saves ranks him 14th in major league baseball over his career.  For a good portion of his career, he was considered one of the best closers in baseball.

Why He Should Not Get In
Closers are still not getting into the Hall Of Fame easily and Mesa would have a hill to climb to get there.  With players ahead of him with more than 400 saves, he will be hard pressed to force his way in to Cooperstown.

Bill Ivie is the editor here at I-70 Baseball
Follow him on Twitter here.

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St. Louis Cardinals might be smart to re-sign Kyle Lohse

The St. Louis Cardinals have a solid starting rotation that includes two ace-caliber pitchers, a couple of decent No. 3 and No. 4 starters, and a bevy of young flamethrowers. However, they might be in better shape if they re-sign their best starter from last year – Kyle Lohse.

Photo By Erika Lynn

Photo By Erika Lynn

Lohse posted a 16-3 record with a team-leading 2.84 earned-run average and was a strong candidate for the Cy Young Award in 2012. His contract expired at the end of the season, but no team has shown any strong interest in signing the 34-year-old righthander.

Part of the problem for Lohse could be a new system put in place by Major League Baseball in 2011 that gives teams compensation picks if they make qualifying offers to their free agents and those players are signed by another team. Teams have recently been more reluctant to sign a high-priced free agent because they’ll have to give up a draft pick and a portion of their draft money.

Perhaps his asking price is simply too high. Scott Boras represents Lohse, and Boras is known to try any imaginable tactic to drive up the price for teams to sign his clients. This strategy cost Lohse the last time he was a free agent.

Lohse put together a 9-12 record in 2007 with the Cincinnati Reds and Philadelphia Phillies, but he hit the open market that offseason looking for a big, multi-year contract. As Spring Training camps opened in 2008, Lohse was still hunting for a job when the Cardinals signed him to a one-year, $4.25-million deal that was designed to be an opportunity for Lohse to try to maximize his value for the following offseason.

It worked. Lohse went 15-6 with a 3.78 ERA in 2008, and the Cardinals re-signed him to a four-year, $41-million extension later that season.

The Cardinals might be reluctant to sign Lohse because they want the compensation draft pick, which would be cheaper to sign than a free agent pitcher. But, the franchise could find short- and long-term benefits if they re-sign Lohse.

Lohse could return to the Cardinals with a fairly reasonable deal since no other teams have stepped forward with an offer, and the move could help them beyond next year if Adam Wainwright decides to leave as a free agent. Wainwright is going to command at least a near-record contract if he has a good season, and he is almost certainly going to be more expensive than Lohse.

Theoretically, the Cardinals could sign Lohse to a contract in the neighborhood of four years and as much as $70-80 million. That would still likely be less than half of what Wainwright will make in his next contract. Plus, the Cardinals have several young pitchers who could fill rotation spots if Wainwright decides to leave.

If all that were to happen, the Cardinals could open the 2014 and 2015 seasons with a rotation led by Lohse, followed by Jaime Garcia, Joe Kelly, Lance Lynn and Shelby Miller. That also doesn’t include pitchers such as Trevor Rosenthal or Carlos Martinez.

Granted, that would be a very young rotation, and Garcia’s shoulder problems remain a question at this point. But, there is undoubtedly enough talent in that rotation for the team to be successful, and it would be a heck of a lot cheaper than keeping Wainwright.

Some people might say re-signing Lohse this year is unreasonable, but it could pay off in the long term. The Cardinals would have much more money to spend on a solid middle infielder and veteran players who often play key roles that help win games late in the regular season and playoffs.

Although Lohse’s contract this year could create some sticker shock, it would be minimal compared to the gasping-for-air feeling Cardinals fans could experience if the team tries to sign Wainwright to a long-term contract next year.

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St. Louis Cardinals will likely be forced to give Adam Wainwright record contract

As another offseason of eye-poppingly large free-agent contracts begins to wind down, the St. Louis Cardinals find themselves in an unfortunate, yet familiar situation as one of their biggest stars heads into the final year of his contract.

AdamWainwright

It was Albert Pujols in 2011; it will be Adam Wainwright in 2013.

The Cardinals co-ace is headed into the final year of his six-year, $59.4-million contract. That number is almost laughably low for a  Cy Young Award quality pitcher with a career 80-48 record, 3.15 ERA. In the past year, pitchers with less impressive numbers have signed contracts nearly triple the size of Wainwright’s current deal.

The San Francisco Giants signed Matt Cain in April to a six-year, $127.5-million extension. That was, of course, before he had a career season that included starting the All-Star Game and pitching a perfect game June 13 against the Houston Astros. The Los Angeles Dodgers also recently signed former Cy Young winner Zack Grienke to a six-year, $147-million contract. And those are just the big-name pitchers.

Even mediocre pitchers got paid big bucks this offseason. The Detroit Tigers signed Anibal Sanchez, who has a career 48-51 record and 3.75 ERA, to a five year contract worth $80 million. The Chicago Cubs were in the hunt for Sanchez, but they quickly turned around and gave Edwin Jackson, a 70-71 career pitcher with a 4.40 ERA, a four-year, $52-million deal.

If those types of pitchers are getting around $15 million per year, a pitcher with Wainwright’s record could honestly be looking at the possibility of a contract that pays him closer to $30 million than $20 million per year. That’s one heck of an investment.

The Pujols situation blew up in Spring Training of 2011 when Pujols cut off contract negotiations, and that issue lingered throughout the entire season. Pujols, of course, ended up signing with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim for 10 years and $254 millions the following offseason.

The Cardinals avoided a similar situation with catcher Yadier Molina when they gave him a five-year, $75-million contract extension in Spring Training before the 2012 season even began.

If the Cardinals and Wainwright don’t reach a deal before the 2013 season starts, the unrest in St. Louis concerning the team’s best pitcher will build and build whether Wainwright pitches great or pitches poorly.

The Cardinals have plenty of incentives to get a deal done quickly, but Wainwright could play the system and cash in at the end of next season. The Cardinals would likely be able to sign Wainwright at a cheaper price now because no other teams are currently able to offer him contracts, and if Wainwright pitches great in 2013, that will also drive up his price.

The team’s other co-ace, Chris Carpenter, currently holds the record as the highest-paid pitcher in Cardinals history. He signed a five-year, $63-million contract in 2006.

Like it or not, the Cardinals need to be prepared to shatter that record with Wainwright because the price for good starting pitchers continues to skyrocket. It’s not impossible to think Wainwright could sign the largest pitcher’s contract in the history of the game, exceeding the seven-year, $161-million contract the New York Yankees gave CC Sabathia before the 2009 season began.

Otherwise, St. Louis baseball fans might spend next Christmas bemoaning the fact that one of the best pitchers in franchise history moved on to take a huge sum of money somewhere else.

After Pujols’ departure in December 2011, that’s probably a Christmas story few Cardinals fans would want to relive.

Correction: a previous version of this article claimed Adam Wainwright was a former Cy Young Award winner.  That has since been corrected.

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The Winter Meetings were pretty quiet for the Royals

Each year, officials from the 30 Major League teams come together for the Winter Meetings to make deals via trades or free agent signings. Of course trades and free agent signings happen all year, but some important deals happen during the Winter Meetings. Some teams make a big splash, some teams just show up.

The Royals didn’t made a splash as of Wednesday night. They have two needs; starting pitching and a utility infielder. Starting pitching is more important to the Royals and there’s plenty of rumors about the starting pitchers the team has interest in via a trade or free agency.

The way it looks now, the Royals prefer to sign a starting pitcher via free agency. Zack Greinke is out of the question, but the Royals top target is Anibal Sanchez, who could be looking for a six-year deal at almost $100MM dollars. That’s way out of the Royals price range, but it’s more likely Sanchez will get a four-year deal and if the money is right, Sanchez might be a Royal. Sanchez isn’t an ace like Greinke, but he would bolster the Royals rotation.

Wednesday, the Royals made a two-year, $26MM offer to starter Ryan Dempster, but he’s looking for a three-year, $39MM deal and there are rumblings the Cubs, Brewers and Red Sox have interest in Dempster.

In other rumors, free agent starters the Royals are looking at are Shaun Marcum and Brandon McCarthy. Both starters had some health issues in the past, but could be intriguing choices if the price and years are right.

As for the trade route, there’s a few starters the Royals have interest in. The Wil Myers/John Lester trade rumors are cooling off, but the Royals still have interest in Rays starters James Shields and Jeremy Hellickson. For a while, there was talk of a Myers/R.A. Dickey trade, but the Royals quickly dismissed it. Yes, Dickey won the Cy Young Award this year and he’s a 20 game winner, but he’s 38 and Myers is 22. If Dickey was younger, it might be a better trade. Astros starter Bud Norris is another pitcher the Royals are looking at, who will be free agent in 2016. And the Royals have interest in Rangers starter Derek Holland, who’s a free agent in 2017.

Whatever the Royals decide, they’re not in a hurry to find the “right” starting pitcher. It could be after the Winter Meetings before the Royals make a deal.

The Baltimore Orioles and Seattle Mariners have some interest in designated hitter Billy Butler, but there’s nothing concrete. Besides Felix Hernandez, the Mariners don’t have a Major League ready pitcher the Royals are looking for. Baltimore has some good pitching prospects and young Major League starters, but the Royals want a more established starter to lead the rotation in 2013.

There’s even talk the Royals are willing to trade Chris Getz and the St. Louis Cardinals might be interested in Getz as a utility infielder. Hey, aren’t the Royals looking for a utility infielder? Oh, wait, the Royals consider Getz a starting infielder.

With the flux of the Winter Meetings, this article might be invalid by the time it’s posted. As I write this, Twitter is buzzing about a potential Myers/Shields trade. Some Royals fans say yes, some say no, and some say heck no. Whatever happens, the Royals are getting a starting pitcher. Who that will be and when it happens is hard to say.

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St. Louis Cardinals refuse to take easy path to World Series

The St. Louis Cardinals entered Game 5 of the National League Championship Series on Friday up three games to one on the San Francisco Giants, just one win from securing a spot in the World Series. All they had to do was beat Giants starter Barry Zito, who hasn’t had an earned-run average under 4.03 in six years.

That sounds doable enough. The Cardinals scored eight runs the night before against 2008 and 2009 Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum. Instead, Zito, who did win a Cy Young award with the Oakland A’s in 2002, shut the Cardinals down for eight innings, and the Giants won 5-0.

That means instead of a free weekend to rest and prepare for Game 1 of the World Series on Wednesday at home against the Detroit Tigers, the Cardinals had to trek back out to San Francisco. Additionally, they will face Ryan Vogelsong and Matt Cain in games 6 and 7, against whom the Cardinals have scored a combined four runs in their first starts of the series.

The Cardinals could have wrapped up the NL pennant Friday, but no, that wouldn’t have let them win in their typical pull-your-hair-out, blood-vessel-bursting excitement and drama. This is the 2012 Cardinals, who are an extension of the 2011 Cardinals. They do things the hard way.

The Cardinals could’ve wrapped up the second wild card spot by beating the Cincinnati Reds in the second-to-last game of the season, but they didn’t. They lost 3-1 and had to rely on the Giants to beat the Los Angeles Dodgers later that night to clinch the NL Central.

They also could’ve knocked out the Washington Nationals in Game 4 of the Division Series but lost 2-1 on a walk-off homerun by Jayson Werth. That led into a 6-0 deficit in Game 5 that required a miracle comeback just to make the National League Championship Series.

The Cardinals could have saved lots of stress and heartburn for their fans had they won Game 5 Friday night, but that’s not how the Cardinals operate. They seek out the most tense moments possible and still prevail. Sometimes it feels like the Cardinals are in on a big prank where they know they will win, but they want to make that victory as dramatic as possible.

That now might have to be how they win the NLCS. Vogelsong and Cain are very good pitchers, and the Giants will have both games at home. Of course, the Cardinals will counter with Chris Carpenter and Kyle Lohse on the mound, but gosh it would’ve been nice to wrap up the series at home with a little bit of a cushion.

The one benefit of all of the close, back-against-the-wall victories is that they are certainly fun to celebrate. Thankfully, the Cardinals have won every one of those games in the last two years, but that possibility of a loss looms over those games larger than a Directv blimp.

But with Friday’s loss, they once again opened the door on the possibility that Game 5 might have been the last game in Busch Stadium this year.

The Cardinals knew going into the series the Giants wouldn’t be easy to eliminate. San Francisco has a very good team that pitches well and can generate runs without having to hit the ball out of the park. That’s going to make the remainder of the NLCS fun to watch for baseball fans, especially fun for the winning team’s fans and heartbreaking for the losing team.

The Cardinals have once again let a postseason series head toward the brink of an elimination, win-or-go-home game that will be seared into the memories of Cardinals fans forever.

It’s more fun that way, right?

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2013: The Royals time to go after starting pitching

With the 2012 season winding down, The Kansas City Royals are in familiar territory, finishing below .500 and looking forward to 2013. The Royals lineup is solid, the bullpen is good, but the starting pitching is hideous.

Despite what some fans might think, the Royals know they need to improve their starting rotation. A September 24 article in the Kansas City Star says Royals owner David Glass plans to increase payroll to improve the starting rotation.

How much Glass will spend and the pitchers the Royals pursue is uncertain, but for 2013, there’s 45 free agent starting pitchers on the market. Some are aces, some are journeymen and some are hanging on to their baseball careers. I’ll keep my focus on five unrestricted free agent pitchers who might wear Royal blue next season.

Zack Greinke: He’s the top free agent pitcher this offseason with and up and down tenure with the Royals from 2004-2010. After being traded to the Milwaukee Brewers in 2010, the Brewers traded Greinke to the Los Angels Angels of Anaheim this July. Between 33 starts with the Brewers and Angels, Greinke had a 3.42 ERA, 1.200 WHIP, 8.6 SO/9, 2.3 BB/9 and a 3.79 SO/BB ratio. Despite his early struggles with Anaheim, Greinke is pitching better and has similar 2012 numbers with the Brewers and Angels.

Greinke has a well documented history with Kansas City, going through anxiety issues in 2006 and winning the Cy Young Award in 2009. He’s a front of the rotation starter and Greinke would likely entertain an offer by the Royals if he believes the team could be a contender. But are the Royals willing to pay? Some believe Greinke will command a six year, $125MM contract and unless the Royals are willing to spend almost $21MM a year on one player, Greinke will stay with the Angels or go elsewhere.

Jeremy Guthrie: When the Royals traded Jonathan Sanchez to the Colorado Rockies for Guthrie, the hope was he would be decent. Guthrie wasn’t. He was much better.

In Colorado, Guthrie had a 6.35 ERA, 1.668 WHIP, 4.5 SO/9, 3.1 BB/9 and a 1.45 SO/BB ratio. That’s almost Sanchez like numbers. But with Kansas City, Guthrie has a 3.00 ERA, 1.103 WHIP, 5.8 SO/9, 1.6 BB/9 and a 3.57 SO/BB ratio. Being a flyball pitcher, Guthrie fits well in pitcher-friendly Kauffman Stadium and pitching coach Dave Eiland worked on Guthrie’s delivery.

Guthrie is good number three starter. There’s a chance he could regress, but not as bad as his Colorado performance. If the Royals sign Guthrie for around $16MM and two years, he’ll be an asset to the rotation. But the Royals still need to get another starter in addition to Guthrie.

Shaun Marcum: With his ties to the Kansas City area, Marcum is a name bandied about as a potential free agent target for the Royals. With the Brewers this season, Marcum has a 3.86 ERA, 1.250 WHIP, 8.0 SO/9, 2.7 BB/9 and a 2.94 SO/BB ratio. He’s struggled with injuries for most of the season, pitching only 112 innings. When he’s healthy, he’s good. Marcum made $7.7M this year and if the Royals make a offer in the $16MM for two years range, he might be a welcome addition. If he stays healthy.

Edwin Jackson: For 2012, the Washington Nationals signed Jackson to a one-year $11MM contract. With the Nationals, Jackson has a 3.77 ERA, 1.178 WHIP, 8.0 SO/9, 2.6 and a 3.06 SO/BB ratio. He’s been pretty durable with 29 starts and 181.3 innings pitched. He’s an important part of the Nationals rotation and helped them reach the playoffs.

Depending how Jackson and the Nationals do in the playoffs, Jackson might command a high salary, a multi-year contract and the interest of several teams. Or he might be affordable enough for the Royals to sign him.

Anibal Sanchez: The Detroit Tigers got Sanchez from the Miami Marlins late July and With Miami, Sanchez had a 3.94 ERA, 1.256 WHIP, 8.2 SO/9, 1.8 BB/9 and a 3.33 SO/BB ratio. With Detroit, Sanchez has a 3.95 ERA, 1.288 WHIP, 7.0 SO/9, 1.8 BB/9 and a 3.79 SO/BB ratio. However, his 2012 9-13 win-loss record isn’t impressive.

Despite the losing record, Sanchez has a decent ERA, pitched 189.1 innings this season, has a fair amount of strikeouts and doesn’t walk many batters. If the price and years are right, Sanchez could be a solid number three starter.

The Royals need to get two number three starters like Guthrie, Marcum or Jackson. Getting at least two of these pitchers will improve the starting rotation and make the Royals more competitive in the A.L. Central.

But if the Royals are serious, Glass has to take a risk in money and years and make an effort to sign Greinke. It would send shock waves through baseball and show the fans and other teams in the American League Glass is serious about winning. Adding Greinke is not a guarantee the Royals will contend in the A.L. Central, but it does improve the starting rotation. And if the team could get Guthrie or Sanchez for a reasonable price, perhaps 2013 could be the Royals time.

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