The St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs began the newest chapter in one of sport’s greatest rivalries on Tuesday. While the Cardinals entered the series with National League’s best record and riding a six-game win streak that ran completely over the Brewers, in series between these two clubs, anything can happen…and it actually did. The Cubs entered with an opposite record and place in the NL Central, yet when the series started everybody was on equal ground as usual between these two teams.

The series played out to show that equality as well, as the two clubs split the mid-week series, and played two intense games that took some timely baseball to work out and win. In the end, both games were won on the backs of each club’s closer-of-the moment, as well as some tight relief pitching, as well as by a grand total of one run in club’s favor. Yet the Cardinals survived their brush with their oldest rivals, and still sit with the best record in baseball. Here are three factors that made that possible:

1. Lynn’s Strange Start: Lance Lynn took the mound on Tuesday night riding more momentum than anybody else on the club. He was the winner of five straight contests, and was looking to win his NL-best sixth contest already. He also entered the start as a beneficiary of just over eight runs of support per game, a league-best level of assistance. After Allen Craig’s second inning home run, the Cardinals failed to score another run. The one run was the lowest amount of support he’d received since September 13^th last year, a 2-1 game that ended in his favor.

This time the game didn’t end on his side, as he dropped his first start since April 3^rd despite the fact he surrendered only two runs off four hits over seven innings. By not gaining the victory, he failed to match the longest winning streak by a Cardinals pitcher since Chris Carpenter in 2011.

2. Yadi giveth and taketh away: One of the oddest (or at least telling) turns of the Cardinal approach over the past few years is that Yadier Molina is among the most active base runners on the team. Despite his obvious lack of natural deftness, he has managed to steal at least eight bases in three of the last four seasons, including 12 a year ago. His trip to Chicago was a showing in both crapping and cashing out with gambles on the bases for him. In game one, in the midst of an eighth inning comeback, he followed a single up by stealing second with two outs. However, then after nearly being picked off on a long lead based on inducing a balk from the sometimes erratic Marmol, he took too far of a lead was cleanly picked off after the next pitch, ending the inning and the Cardinal hopes for the evening.

The next day, his footwork made the deciding difference. In a similar situation to the night before, Molina found himself back at second, but this time Jon Jay came through with a single into center field, where Molina turned the corner at third and scored the game’s final run. The gambling man continues to pay out…even if it’s just breaking even.

3. Who’s the Man(ess): Recently promoted righty Seth Maness has wasted no time in making an impact with the big club, and has done so under pressure each time out. He has produced game-saving, eighth inning double plays in both of his last two times on the mound, and has taken home the win in two of his first three appearances. He recorded the last five outs of Wednesday’s game, and has retired seven of the eight batters he’s faced. He has been a major factor in steadying the late game situations that sank the club repeatedly over the first month, and is doing a lot to make his first cup coffee up count.

The Cardinals brought an end to a brief slide over the weekend with a series win over the Cincinnati Reds. Despite still not getting the offense going on all cylinders, the strong starting pitching staff continued to hold the fort down in the mean time. After dropping the first game of the series 2-1, club surrendered only three runs over the next two contests to pull itself out of a three-game losing streak, and back atop the National League Central.

Yet, as the club moves back onto the road for a four-game series in Milwaukee beginning this evening, they are grinding out wins in an efficient style, but are still giving the vibe that there is more to come. They finished the home stand at an even 3-3, and take back to the road where they have a NL-high nine wins on the year. Yet before that gets underway, let’s look at three deciding factors in the series that just was against their toughest recent rival:

1. Lynn-sanity: Lance Lynn would be a sprinter’s favorite pitcher. For the second year in a row, he’s opened up a season 5-0. And while he doesn’t have last season’s insane 1.60 ERA that he carried through April, he’s on currently enjoying the best stretch of his career to date. Over his last three starts, he is sporting a 0.85 ERA, surrendering only two earned runs over his last three starts, which have each gone seven innings. Over this same stretch, he’s surrendered only eight hits and eight walks, and has not surrendered a home run since April 15.

However, what’s most telling for Lynn is how much better he’s controlled the ballgame via his work rate. In his first three starts, he crossed over at least 94 pitches in each start, despite not getting out of the fifth inning. Now he is staying at a slightly higher pitch count (averaging 107 per outing), but he’s going two innings longer, and working at a much more efficient rate. Efficiency is what escaped Lynn throughout the late stages of 2012, and half of the first month of the year. While the results of his last few outings aren’t sustainable throughout a full year, the more economical approach is, and that is the next step in Lynn’s evolution as a starting pitcher.

2. Freese Frame: 2012 has not been David Freese’s year so far. After starting the spring swinging a very good bat, he was sidelined by a back injury that kept him out of action through the beginning of the regular season. So far, it’s like he hasn’t shown up yet either. He is hitting only .163 on the year through 49 at-bats, with only two extra base hits. Freese has been held out of the lineup the last two games, and could continue to be out of the everyday lineup while he works out his slump. Whether it’s the fact he’s never quite mended from the injury, or is just plain having the worst breaks possible, him breaking out of his issues is key to the offense balancing out.

3. Stressing the Division: The Cardinals are faring well inside the NL Central thus far. They are tied with Pittsburgh for the most wins inside the division with eight, but they have had particular success with the Reds so far. They have outscored the Reds 26-19 on the season, while working to a 4-2 record early on. Yet looking inside of that breakout doesn’t tell the true story of the Cardinals dominance over the Reds so far. The Reds scored all but six of those runs in one game, and otherwise the Cardinals have dominated the series thus far. The Cardinals have only lost one series at home on the season, and have gone 32-3 vs. the Reds in their last 35 series in St. Louis.

ROYALS SIGN LEFT-HANDED RELIEVER Jose Mijares TO A ONE-YEAR CONTRACT

KANSAS CITY, MO (December 21, 2011) — The Kansas City Royals announced today that the club has signed left-handed relief pitcher Jose Mijaresto a one-year Major League contract for 2012. Consistent with club policy, terms of the deal were not disclosed. With the signing of the Mijares, the Royals’ 40-man roster stands at 40.

“We expect Jose to be a solid addition from the left side that further strengthens our bullpen,” Royals GM Dayton Moore said. “He has been especially good against left-handed hitters in his career and will give Ned more options to match up late in the game.”

The 27-year-old Mijares (me-HAH-ress) has posted a 3-6 record with a 3.16 ERA in 186 relief appearances for the Minnesota Twins since making his debut in 2008. Last season, the 6-foot, 230-pounder went 0-2 with a 4.59 ERA in 58 contests, all in relief. In his career, Mijares has held left-handed batters to a .212 average, allowing just five home runs in 287 plate appearances. Born and raised in Caracas, Venezuela, Mijares is currently 3-0 with a 1.29 ERA (0 BB, 7 SO) in eight relief outings for Tigres de Aragua in the Venezuelan Winter League.

19 games into the season, and the Royals have pulled off a surprising stretch of winning baseball. Fans have found themselves walking a tightrope between excitement and skepticism, with the memory of 2009′s 18-11 start and ensuing collapse still fresh. Personally, I will never complain about wins, and the 2011 Royals have been a blast so far, but my hopes for the remainder of the season remain tempered with a healthy dose of wait-and-see.

The Royals, now at 12-7, will have their first winning record after 20 games since 2003, and only the second since 1989. How much of a team’s true talent level is revealed after 20 games? Looking back at the Royals past, the answer could be “more than I expected.” In a surprising number of years, the team’s winning percentage after 20 games has been fairly similar to their final tally. Only once has a Royals team had a winning record after 20 contests but finished the season with a losing mark (1983). (If you are wondering where that 2009 team is, they just missed the cut by being .500 after 20 games.) And only five teams have dug themselves out of a losing 20 game start to finish above .500 (’84, ’87, ’91, ’93, ’94). That means 86% of Royals teams (36/42) have finished above or below .500 when having a similar winning or losing record after 20 games.

Getting a little more technical, the statistical correlation between the winning percentage after the first 20 games and at the end of the season for Royals teams is .42 (0 meaning no correlation, 1 meaning perfect correlation). So obviously there is still a lot of wiggle room after 20 games. But to a larger degree than I expected, teams that are winners after 20 games tend to be winners at the end of the season, and teams that are losers after 20 games tend to be losers after 162. Let’s hope that holds true this year.

Royals seasons 1969--2010

Best 20 Game Start: 16-4 in 2003; Final record: 83-79

The surprise to me in this exercise has been how few fluky starts the Royals have had, but of course there have been a few. Clearly, this was one, but fluky or not, it did lead to a fun summer of contention and the only winning Royals season in the last two million years.

Worst 20 Game Start: 3-17 in 1992; Final record: 72-90

A flukily bad start, but in the broader sense, correctly reflective of an actually bad team.

Limiting this exercise to Royals history may skew things a little. Because their history is generally drastically split between very good years and very bad years, perhaps it should not be surprising that Royals teams usually are showing their colors after 20 games. Looking at the more varied pool of all 2010 teams, seven squads flipped from above or below .500 after 20 games to the opposite at the end of the season, meaning 77% of teams finished on the same side of the .500 line. In 2009, eight teams flopped between winners/losers after 20 and 162 games (73% stayed the same).

We are moving out of the embryonic stage of the season, with win-loss records compiling to the point where teams will be trying to build on a good start or dig out of a bad one from here on out. Whatever the rest of the year may hold, it is nice for the Royals to be in a position of strength after 20 games for a change.

Our new friends over at Rant Sports have Connor Nielen covering the Royals for their network site, Royal Treatment. Connor provides series previews and I-70 has reached an agreement to bring his excellent work to our readers in exchange for introducing our readers to his excellent site. So give his site a read and check out his thoughts on the Detroit Series.

Falling just three outs short of a fifth straight victory, the Royals can hold their heads up high after splitting a back-and-forth series with the White Sox in which the teams combined to score 30 runs in just two games. Kansas City now begins their first road-trip of the season, heading to Detroit for a trio of contests with the division-rival Tigers:

Fri. Apr. 8. 2:05 pm CT – Kyle Davies (0-0, 6.75) v. Max Scherzer (1-0, 10.80)

Sat. Apr. 9. 3:10 pm CT – Bruce Chen (0-0, 9.00) v. Phil Coke (0-1, 7.71)

Sun. Apr. 10. 12:05 pm CT – Luke Hochevar (0-0, 6.17) v. Rick Porcello (0-0, 9.00)

You can read Connor’s in depth analysis of the series by clicking here.

It was a wild and crazy opening week at Kauffman Stadium full of extra innings, lead changes, walk-offs, meltdowns and best of all, a 4-2 record for the Royals. Here is a look at some of the biggest plays from each game based on win probability added (WPA) (numbers all from the indispensable Fangraphs):

March 31 • Angels 4 Royals 2

The opener did not feature any of the dramatic swings that the next five contests did. The key moment of the game came when the Royals threatened to come back in the bottom of the eighth after Melky Cabrera, Billy Butler and Kila Ka’aihue walked the bases drunk with just one out. They were down 2-4 but had raised their win expectancy (WE) to 38%. Jeff Francoeur stepped to the plate but struck out, which dropped the Royals WE down to 23%. Alcides Escobar was up next with a chance to play hero, but flew out instead, and the Royals chances fell all the way down to 8%.

(WPA is a descriptive or “story” stat, meaning it describes what happened without necessarily reflecting a player’s true talent. Still, it is worth noting that Escobar had the worst WPA in the majors last season and has jumped out to the worst WPA for the Royals so far. Hopefully some timely hits will start falling in for him. The good news is he has looked outstanding with the glove.)

April 1 • Royals 2 Angels 1

The start of the four-game winning streak, and first of three walk-off wins on the week. Not surprisingly, Kila’s 9th inning bomb was the play of the game, boosting KC’s WE from 64% to a cool 100%.

April 2 • Royals 5 Angels 4

The Royals came-back came in the eighth inning this time with a couple of unlikely names doing the damage with the bat. With two outs and two on, the Royals were down 3-4, and had just a 31% WE. Light-hitting Matt Treanor knocked Billy Butler in with a single to tie it, and also-light-hitting Chris Getz gave the good guys the lead for good with a single of his own. KC’s WE shot all the way up to 86%.

April 3 • Royals 5 Angels 4

More late-innings madness, this time in both the ninth and 13th innings. Down by two in the bottom of the ninth, things were not looking good until suddenly the bases were loaded; Wilson Betemit had the biggest hit for the Royals all week (judged by WPA) when he doubled in two runs. Tying the game resulted in a mammoth 51% swing in WE in the Royals favor. The teams locked horns for four more innings before Treanor continued an amazing first week as a Royal with a walk-off ding dong. Even though it won the game, it had a smaller impact on WE (39%) than Betemit’s game-tying double.

April 5 • Royals 7 White Sox 6

How about another extra-inning, walk-off win? Once again it was the hit to tie the game that had the biggest effect on WE, rather than the walk-off hit itself. The tying runs came on a mammoth home-run from Bam Bam Butler, boosting the Royals WE from 20% to 56%. Cabrera’s single in the 12th wasn’t bad either, moving the WE from 70% to game over.

April 6 • White Sox 10 Royals 7

insaness

The magic ran out in another crazy game. It looked like the Royals were going to win in non-dramatic fashion for a change after jumping out to a 5-0 lead and handing a 6-3 lead to Joakim Soria in the ninth. Soria got two quick ground-outs, and the game was basically over. The Royals WE was 99.6%. The White Sox had flat-lined and were moving towards the light. Three singles and a walk later, the White Sox were within one run, but the Royals WE was still 83%. Next came the biggest WPA play of the week when Carlos Quentin doubled in the tying and go-ahead runs, swinging the WE 66% in the White Sox’s favor. It appeared the Royals might come back from the collapse when Ka’aihue doubled in the tying run in the bottom of the ninth, moving the WE 42% back in KC’s favor. The Royals couldn’t score. Then in the 11th, the Royals got their WE all the way back up to 83%. In a repeat of opening day, Jeff Francoeur and Alcides Escobar squashed a rally with back-to-back outs. It was not to be this time, and the Sox finally finished the job in the 13th inning.

Top five plays by WPA during opening week:

-66%: April 6 • 9th • Carlos Quentin go-ahead 2B

+51%: April 3 • 9th • Wilson Betemit tying 2B

+42%: April 6 • 9th • Kila Ka’aihue tying 2B

+39%: April 3 • 13th • Matt Treanor walk-off HR

+36%: April 5 • 8th • Billy Butler tying HR