The St. Louis Cardinals have used three weeks of spring training to find their likely middle infielders for the upcoming season, but one big decision remains as to who will take the fifth spot in the starting rotation. Fortunately, the Cardinals should be in good shape regardless of who they choose.

Three contestants began the battle for the final starting spot at the beginning of spring training, and the Cardinals have already eliminated one contender. They told Trevor Rosenthal last week he would not make the rotation, but he would likely have a prominent spot in the bullpen.

So that leaves Joe Kelly and Shelby Miller to fight for that last spot. Not coincidentally, the Cardinals plan to have both pitch Thursday against the Atlanta Braves in a game that will most likely be the Cardinals final evaluation before they make their decision.

Kelly has made two starts so far this year. He went two innings in each outing and gave up just one run combined. However, his control has been erratic, and he has walked five batters in those four innings.

Miller has also pitched twice this spring, but just one was a start. He’s given up three runs combined, but he’s also walked just one hitter.

Cardinals management said earlier in the week that a decision is near because the winner would need the next three starts to build stamina for the regular season, according to the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.

The odds favor Kelly for several reasons. He is two years older and has more experience in the starting rotation. Kelly made 16 starts last year, while Miller just came up in September to make a token two starts.

Miller is also a higher-rated prospect who the Cardinals hope becomes a cornerstone of the rotation long into the future. And although Miller has looked impressive in everything he’s done at the big-league level, the Cardinals have been burned plenty of times by bringing up a young pitcher who could’ve used a little more time in the minors.

And that’s where Miller figures to go if he doesn’t win the job. Kelly pitched eight times last year as a long reliever, and he could easily slide back and fortify the bullpen again. However, the Cardinals already have Rosenthal, Fernando Salas, Edward Mujica, Mitchell Boggs and Jason Motte as solid righthanded relievers they can bring in to shut down a game. Kelly would likely be wasted in mop-up duty if he went to the bullpen.

The bullpen also wouldn’t be the best spot for Miller because he is going to need to establish the stamina necessary to pitch as a starter for an entire season. He is much more likely to rack up innings with the Triple-A Memphis Redbirds than in long relief out of the Cardinals bullpen.

Either way, Thursday will probably be one of the most interesting days of the Cardinals 2013 spring training.

This is what spring training is all about. Two players came into camp knowing they had to perform well to win a job, and one of them will likely walk off the mound Thursday at Roger Dean Stadium in Jupiter, Fla., as part of one of the most exclusive clubs in St. Louis: the Cardinals starting rotation.

With the 2012 season winding down, The Kansas City Royals are in familiar territory, finishing below .500 and looking forward to 2013. The Royals lineup is solid, the bullpen is good, but the starting pitching is hideous.

Despite what some fans might think, the Royals know they need to improve their starting rotation. A September 24 article in the Kansas City Star says Royals owner David Glass plans to increase payroll to improve the starting rotation.

How much Glass will spend and the pitchers the Royals pursue is uncertain, but for 2013, there’s 45 free agent starting pitchers on the market. Some are aces, some are journeymen and some are hanging on to their baseball careers. I’ll keep my focus on five unrestricted free agent pitchers who might wear Royal blue next season.

Zack Greinke: He’s the top free agent pitcher this offseason with and up and down tenure with the Royals from 2004-2010. After being traded to the Milwaukee Brewers in 2010, the Brewers traded Greinke to the Los Angels Angels of Anaheim this July. Between 33 starts with the Brewers and Angels, Greinke had a 3.42 ERA, 1.200 WHIP, 8.6 SO/9, 2.3 BB/9 and a 3.79 SO/BB ratio. Despite his early struggles with Anaheim, Greinke is pitching better and has similar 2012 numbers with the Brewers and Angels.

Greinke has a well documented history with Kansas City, going through anxiety issues in 2006 and winning the Cy Young Award in 2009. He’s a front of the rotation starter and Greinke would likely entertain an offer by the Royals if he believes the team could be a contender. But are the Royals willing to pay? Some believe Greinke will command a six year, $125MM contract and unless the Royals are willing to spend almost $21MM a year on one player, Greinke will stay with the Angels or go elsewhere.

Jeremy Guthrie: When the Royals traded Jonathan Sanchez to the Colorado Rockies for Guthrie, the hope was he would be decent. Guthrie wasn’t. He was much better.

In Colorado, Guthrie had a 6.35 ERA, 1.668 WHIP, 4.5 SO/9, 3.1 BB/9 and a 1.45 SO/BB ratio. That’s almost Sanchez like numbers. But with Kansas City, Guthrie has a 3.00 ERA, 1.103 WHIP, 5.8 SO/9, 1.6 BB/9 and a 3.57 SO/BB ratio. Being a flyball pitcher, Guthrie fits well in pitcher-friendly Kauffman Stadium and pitching coach Dave Eiland worked on Guthrie’s delivery.

Guthrie is good number three starter. There’s a chance he could regress, but not as bad as his Colorado performance. If the Royals sign Guthrie for around $16MM and two years, he’ll be an asset to the rotation. But the Royals still need to get another starter in addition to Guthrie.

Shaun Marcum: With his ties to the Kansas City area, Marcum is a name bandied about as a potential free agent target for the Royals. With the Brewers this season, Marcum has a 3.86 ERA, 1.250 WHIP, 8.0 SO/9, 2.7 BB/9 and a 2.94 SO/BB ratio. He’s struggled with injuries for most of the season, pitching only 112 innings. When he’s healthy, he’s good. Marcum made $7.7M this year and if the Royals make a offer in the $16MM for two years range, he might be a welcome addition. If he stays healthy.

Edwin Jackson: For 2012, the Washington Nationals signed Jackson to a one-year $11MM contract. With the Nationals, Jackson has a 3.77 ERA, 1.178 WHIP, 8.0 SO/9, 2.6 and a 3.06 SO/BB ratio. He’s been pretty durable with 29 starts and 181.3 innings pitched. He’s an important part of the Nationals rotation and helped them reach the playoffs.

Depending how Jackson and the Nationals do in the playoffs, Jackson might command a high salary, a multi-year contract and the interest of several teams. Or he might be affordable enough for the Royals to sign him.

Anibal Sanchez: The Detroit Tigers got Sanchez from the Miami Marlins late July and With Miami, Sanchez had a 3.94 ERA, 1.256 WHIP, 8.2 SO/9, 1.8 BB/9 and a 3.33 SO/BB ratio. With Detroit, Sanchez has a 3.95 ERA, 1.288 WHIP, 7.0 SO/9, 1.8 BB/9 and a 3.79 SO/BB ratio. However, his 2012 9-13 win-loss record isn’t impressive.

Despite the losing record, Sanchez has a decent ERA, pitched 189.1 innings this season, has a fair amount of strikeouts and doesn’t walk many batters. If the price and years are right, Sanchez could be a solid number three starter.

The Royals need to get two number three starters like Guthrie, Marcum or Jackson. Getting at least two of these pitchers will improve the starting rotation and make the Royals more competitive in the A.L. Central.

But if the Royals are serious, Glass has to take a risk in money and years and make an effort to sign Greinke. It would send shock waves through baseball and show the fans and other teams in the American League Glass is serious about winning. Adding Greinke is not a guarantee the Royals will contend in the A.L. Central, but it does improve the starting rotation. And if the team could get Guthrie or Sanchez for a reasonable price, perhaps 2013 could be the Royals time.

After the Omaha Storm Chasers lost three of four games to the Reno Aces in the PCL Championship series, the Kansas City Royals called up starting pitcher Jake Odorizzi, relievers Tommy Hottovy and Nate Adcock, catcher Adam Moore and infielder Irving Falu this week. Besides Odorizzi, the other players were on the 40-man roster. The Royals added Odorizzi to the roster to protect him from this winter’s Rule 5 draft.

Of the five, Odorizzi is the only one without Major League experience. Odorizzi, 22, the Royals top pitching prospect, is a leading contender for the Royals 2013 starting rotation. Between AA Northwest Arkansas and AAA Omaha, he pitched a combined 26 games, 25 of them starts. Odorizzi compiled a 15-5 record with a 3.03 ERA, 145.1 innings pitched with 8.4 SO/9 and 3.1 BB/9.

The Royals plan to have Odorizzi start this Sunday’s game against the Cleveland Indians. He could make a bullpen appearance, since he has over five day’s rest. The Royals want to give Odorizzi a taste of the Majors before his chance to join the rotation in 2013.

Hottovy, 31, spent the 2012 season in the bullpen between Omaha and Kansas City. In 41 games with Omaha, Hottovy compiled a 2-2 record with a 2.52 ERA, 50 innings pitched with a 11 SO/9 and 2.9 BB/9. In a couple of brief stints with the Royals, Hottovy had a 4.05 ERA, 6.2 innings pitched with 8.1 SO/9 and 4.1 BB/9 in six games. He provides lefty bullpen depth.

Adcock, 24, shuttled between Omaha and Kansas City as a starter and reliever. In Omaha, Adcock appeared in 26 games, 25 as a starter. His record was 8-6 with a 5.53 ERA, 99.1 innings pitched and 5.4 SO/9 and 2.7 BB/9. In Kansas City, Adcock pitched eight games out of the bullpen and made two starts with a 0-3 record with a 2.67 ERA, 30.1 innings pitched with a 4.7 SO/9 and 3.6 BB/9. Adcock had pedestrian 2012 numbers and his call-up provides bullpen depth and a chance to make the club as a starter or reliever in 2013.

Moore, 28, makes his 2012 debut with the Royals after being acquired off waivers from the Seattle Mariners July 12. Moore’s last time in the Majors was from 2009-2011, where he played in 68 games with the Mariners. Moore split his 2012 Minor League season between AAA Tacoma and Omaha, appearing in 59 games with a .259/.326/.413 average, 33 RBI and 38 strikeouts and 19 walks. As a backup catcher providing the Royals with depth, Moore could make a start or two by the end of the season.

Longtime Royals farmhand Falu, 29, spent most of the 2012 season with Omaha and is back with Royals for the rest of the season. Falu appeared in 88 games with Omaha with a .329/.375/.463 average, 50 RBI and 41 strikeouts and 28 walks. In his previous time with the Royals, Falu played 15 games with a .321/.333/.434 average, five RBI with nine strikeouts and a walk. If Yost remembers Falu is on the team, he could play a few games this season.

With 14 games remaining and the Royals heading towards another losing season, Yost will give these players limited playing time in games against the Chicago White Sox and Detroit Tigers, A.L. Central contenders. Yost wants his “best” players in those games. The five are likely to see playing time against the Cleveland Indians, fourth place in the A.L. Central.

Of the five, Odorizzi shows the most promise for 2013. The other four players will get opportunities as role players with the Royals, provide Minor League depth or continue their career with another team.

(Editor’s note: All stats used in this piece are as of Monday, 8/27)

This past offseason, Major League Baseball commissioner Bud Selig expanded the playoff system. Two wild card berths were added, one to each league. A single elimination game would be played to determine the Wild Card winner. The current standings are like this:

Atlanta 73-55 (home field advantage for playoff)

San Francisco 71-57* (lead NL West by 1 game over LA Dodgers)

St. Louis 70-57

LA Dodgers 69-59* (1.5 back of STL, 1 game back of San Francisco in NL West)

Pittsburgh 68-59 (2 back of STL)

Arizona 64-64 (6.5 back of STL)

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It’s safe to say that Arizona is likely out of playoff contention, barring anything dramatic and unusual. The Wild Card will be a five-team race, and an exciting one at that. We’ll begin the preview with our own St. Louis Cardinals.

St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals took 2 of 3 from Cincinnati this past weekend, and gained a game in the NL Central. Still, the Reds hold a 6 game lead in the Central and should be able to maintain that lead through the rest of the regular season. If St. Louis can maintain their offensive production, they should have an advantage at maintaining a spot for Game 163. It will be interesting to see how the Cardinals’ rotation will play out, with Joe Kelly pitching in Lance Lynn‘s rotation spot for the time being. September’s expanded rosters may help the Cardinals in their quest.

The Cards have the toughest remaining schedule of any Wild Card contender. They have five series against teams with records above the .500 mark, three of which are against division leading teams (two against Washington, one against Cincinnati).

Cardinals fans will likely remain nervous from now until playoff time, and have good reason to be that way. Everything will have to be clicking for the Redbirds. They cannot afford to give many games away. It can be done, but they have a tough hill to climb to get there.

Remaining games vs WC teams: at PIT (Aug 28 & 29) at LA (Sept 13-16)

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Los Angeles Dodgers, in pursuit of the playoffs, may have just become the biggest threat to the Redbirds” Wild Card hopes.

A nine-player trade took place between the Dodgers and Boston Red Sox on Saturday. Boston sent Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford, Adrian Gonzalez and Nick Punto to LA, while the Sox received James Loney and four prospects. For the Red Sox, the trade was a salary dump and concession for the 2012 season. For LA, the trade showed that the Dodgers are serious about the playoffs, and the near future, under their new ownership. The trade could turn out to be much like the Cardinals trading Colby Rasmus to Toronto last season, and we all know how that turned out for St. Louis.

The Cardinals, Nationals and Reds are the only non-division opponents that the Dodgers face in the rest of the regular season. Washington and Cincinnati have the upper hand in their respective divisions (4 1/2 and 6 games respectively). Of the Wild Card contenders, Los Angeles may be the toughest opposition St. Louis has for the next month and a half. The Dodgers’ dangerous pitching and newly-revamped offense, combined with the easy schedule, should strike fear in their opponents and give LA an edge in the race.

Remaining games vs WC teams: at SF (Sept 7-9), vs STL (Sept 13-16), vs SF (Oct 1-3)

San Francisco Giants

Tim Lincecum has been a huge disappointment in the otherwise stellar season so far for San Fran. The PED-suspension of Melky Cabrera will certainly hurt the Giants’ chances at an NL West title. Despite these events, the Giants have been able to hold a slight division lead on the Dodgers. The only non-division opponents remaining on the schedule for the Giants are the Astros and Cubs. The NL West is pretty much a two-team race between the Dodgers and Giants. The advantage, at least on paper, goes to LA because of the trade boost. The battle for the West (and subsequent Wild Card spot) should go down to the final days of the regular season, but don’t be surprised if LA runs away to a division title before then.

Remaining games vs WC teams: vs LAD (Sept 7-9), at LAD (Oct 1-3)

Pittsburgh Pirates

Other than St. Louis, the Pirates have just three series left with teams that have winning records (two with Cincinnati, one with Atlanta – one Reds series and the Braves series at home). The Pirates are much better at home than on the road (38-25/30-34). Pittsburgh’s contention will depend on their pitching, which has been a major plus for them in 2012. Led by James McDonald and AJ Burnett, the Bucs’ rotation has been one of the biggest surprises of the season. Barring a late season collapse or injuries, Pittsburgh should remain in the three-team race for Wild Card spot number two.

Remaining games vs WC teams: vs STL (Aug 28 & 29), vs ATL (Oct 1-3)

Atlanta Braves (current leader of first Wild Card spot, 2.5 games ahead of Cardinals for position)

The Braves have a big strength of schedule in the remainder of the regular season.  Thanks to a weak NL East, Atlanta faces only two opponents with winning records, Washington and Pittsburgh. It would take a Braves slump and Cardinals surge for St. Louis to take the number one spot and home field for Game 163. It happened in 2011, but given the schedule and sure-thing Braves pitching staff, don’t expect history to repeat itself. Atlanta should be hosting Game 163 in October. The only question they should have is who they will be facing on that day.

Remaining games vs WC teams: at PIT (Oct 1-3)

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The 2012 Wild Card race will be exciting to watch. It won’t quite have the excitement of the 2011 Wild Card, but the first year with the new system won’t disappoint. Expect some good baseball in the season’s last month and a half!

2 Days: Until Pitchers & Catcher report for Spring Training

15 Days: Until the Cactus League Opener

48 Days: Until Opening Night

We have reached the day when I usually consider the baseball off-season over. College Baseball got underway last night. In fact, MLB Network is televising two college games this afternoon. Spring Training will start on Monday. From here until the last out of the World Series there will be some genuine baseball news to consume. Not just speculation and sabermetric rankings. Those things can be fun, but let’s be honest, real baseball is more fun that those things. So, you will find no more off-season whining from me. Seems like I did a lot of that, of which I’m making no apologies.

As a Royals fan this Spring Training is going to be different in that there are less questions than what normally accompanies a Royals Spring Training. I think the team knows, and the fans know who their position players will be on Opening Night in Anaheim. The prospects that were discussed last spring are finally in the majors, or projected to be in the majors this season. It’s one thing to be a prospect; it’s another to produce at the major league level. We are at that point with this Royals team. Other Royals bloggers and the #royalstwitterfamily endearingly refer to this as Dayton Moore’s “Process”. The “process” of turning the Royals from the laughing stock of the major leagues to a contender through it’s minor league system.

In the weeks leading up to Opening Day I’m going to profile players that are key parts of “The Process”. These players must turn from prospects to productive or star caliber major leaguers in the next two seasons. I was tempted to start with the young pitchers that display more question marks than answers, and will have a greater impact on “The Process”. However, I’m going to start with a player I forgot the Royals even had. He was buried at Omaha behind a resurgent Melky Cabrera. Of course, you know that I am referring to Lorenzo Cain.

drawing by James Tyree

I consider Cain a key part of “The Process” because of what the Royals had to give up to acquire him; Zack Greinke. Cain needs to produce in part so the Zack Greinke Trade does not go down in the same train-robbery-category that has plagued the Royals franchise the past ten years. Specifically the trades of Jermaine Dye and Carlos Beltran, those trades yielded the Royals next to nothing. Maybe John Buck for a few seasons? Really? Granted there are other parts to the Greinke Trade, but none of those players have established the trade as a push or a win.

Lorrenzo Cain will be 26 on April 13th. He has played a grand total of 49 games at the major league level. While this is a small sample size, during that time his BA/OBP/SLG line is .302/.343/.402 with 1 HR and 14 RBI’s. Only one of those RBI’s came during his 6 games with the Royals last September. The majority of that production was during the 2010 season with Milwaukee. Last year with the Storm Chasers he hit .312/.380/.497 with 16 HR and 81 RBI’s. A solid season for sure. Cain will be tasked with replacing Melky Cabrera’s 18 HRs, 44 doubles, and 87 RBI’s.

I’m not sure Cain will be able to match that production in his first full year in the majors. I don’t think he needs to, at least not this year. He will most likely bat in the 7th or 8th spot in the batting order. His defense will not make up for the lost run production, but center field defense should improve with Cain on patrol. I think if Cain develops into a “Raul Ibanez when he was with the Royals” type player, that Royals fans would love him. Hopefully the Royals as a team would be successful at the same time. If this scenario played out the Zack Greinke trade could not be called a complete disaster.

If Cain establishes himself he will be the youngest out of the other two starting outfielders; Alex Gordon and Jeff Francoeur. The Royals will have control over all three players for at least two seasons establishing more line-up consistency. If things go well for Cain and the Royals he’ll be worthy of a long term contract extension in 2014. “The Process” will have made a legitimate contribution to the major league roster and we can quit making fun of it. However, the success of the “The Process” is more than producing one player that can produce at the major league level.

It’s a lot more fashionable to be optimistic about the Royals than it has been in past years, so I don’t want anyone to think I’m just jumping on that bandwagon. The Kool Aid Drinker has been spewing optimistic proclamations since the days of Darrel May and Lima Time and won’t be stopping any time soon. I also do not want you to think all of my posts will be half-baked attempts to gloss over whatever the Royals may be facing. I have signed on for four posts a month here at I-70 Baseball and I have decided to give one of them each month to the Kool Aid Drinker. The rest of the time I’ll try to offer something more insightful, if not as entertaining. But for now, let’s see what the Kool Aid Drinker sees in his crystal ball for the first half of 2012:

January 31, 2012
GM Dayton Moore shocks the baseball world right in the middle of Super Bowl Week by signing Roy Oswalt to a 1 year, $18 million deal. While some argue that $18 million is too much for a pitcher that has topped 200 innings only once over the last 3 years, Moore brashly counters: “We felt like we were one top-of-the-rotation starting pitcher away from being a legitimate contender, and Roy fits that mold. We expect to compete for a World Championship in 2012.”

February 21, 2012
George Brett arrives in Surprise, but the bigger surprise is who hops out of his passenger door, Frank White. White’s on-again, off-again love affair with the Royals is back on-again as he has been hired as a special adviser whose only responsibility is to teach Johnny Giovatella how to play second base…in a positive manner.

February 29, 2012
Manager Ned Yost finds it fitting on Leap Year’s “extra day” to announce that he is considering using an “extra” starter in the form of the 6 man rotation the Royals employed at times last season. Yost tells reporters that early in camp the battle for the 5^th (and 6^th?) spot in the rotation is going to be a tight one between Felipe Paulino, Danny Duffy, Mike Montgomery, Aaron Crow and Jake Odorizzi.

March 6, 2012
In split squad games against the Indians and Padres, Odorizzi and Montgomery set the early tone in the competition by each throwing a scoreless inning and striking out the side. Yost states afterwards that he may consider a 7 man rotation.

March 31, 2012
Conventional wisdom wins out with the Royals settling on a 5 man rotation and sending Duffy, Monty and Odorizzi to AAA to compile 3/5 of quite possibly the greatest AAA rotation ever. Eric Hosmer hits his Cactus League leading 11^th home run of spring training against the Diamondbacks.

April 6, 2012
Oswalt pitches a gem on opening day, throwing 7 scoreless innings, picking up a win the hard way in a 1-0 battle. Alcides Escobar is featured on Web Gems for his diving snag of an Albert Pujols line drive to end the game.

April 23, 2012
The Royals conclude their first home stand with a 10-5 victory. The 10 run outburst is keyed by a 3 run shot from Yuniesky Betancourt, filling at second in for Gio after his rough 4/39 start. The Royals average 32,000 fans over the 9 game home stand prompting David Glass to proclaim that he may be willing to splurge for a true utility infielder if this keeps up.

May 5, 2012
Joakim Soria celebrates Cinco De Mayo with a 5-out save for the Royals third straight win against the Yankees. CC Sabathia is scratched from his Sunday start after getting stuck in an Oklahoma Joe’s bathroom stall.

May 31, 2012
X-Rays show Bruce Chen has a broken right hand suffered in a post game celebration after the Royals walk off win against the Indians the night before. Chen is sent to the DL and the Royals call up Mike Montgomery and his 1.73 ERA. The Royals finish the month of May at 28-23, 2 games back of the first place Tigers.

June 13, 2012
After being hit by a 94 mph fastball, Billy Butler (pinch hitting for Escobar in the 7^th) finally gets to let Zack Greinke know how really feels about him. The brawl lasts 11 minutes and is highlighted by Salvador Perez lifting Brewers OF Nyjer Morgan completely off the ground in a Beast Mode pose.

June 17, 2012
Carlos Beltran strikes out looking on a 63 mph curve from Soria as the red hot closer notches his league leading 26^th save of the season. The three game sweep of the Cardinals in St. Louis vaults the Royals into a tie with Tigers for first at 38-28

June 24, 2012
After splitting the first two games of their home series with the Cardinals, the Royals win the rubber match in convincing fashion, 11-0. The win caps a near perfect weekend at The K with sellout crowds all three days that, for the first time in many years, are more blue than red.

June 30, 2012
The Royals finish the month of June at 44-33, a game ahead of the red-hot Tigers. Hosmer leads the team with 19 home runs and 62 RBI, while hitting a cool .305.

Now, the Kool Aid Drinker does not want to completely let the cat out of the bag on 2012, so we will save the second half of the season for some time in June. Until then, I would love to hear what you see in store for the Royals through your rose-colored glasses.

“Same old Royals.” “Another pointless September.” “Time to trade off our stars.” Those are the statements that you’ll hear from casual Royals fans every fall. Pessimism is normally at an all-time high, everyone is more focused on football, and nobody cares about making it out to Kauffman for a “meaningless” baseball game.

Things have been different this time around.

The hope and optimism surrounding “The K” during the current homestand hasn’t been higher since 2003 (the Royals last winning season). Fans are finally believing that the Royals are close to being a legitimate contender.

Right now, the Royals are 20 games under .500, 22.5 games back in the division, and way past being eliminated from playoff contention. It’s hard to see any fanbase in professional sports rallying behind a team with those numbers, but Royals fans did it during the past week. Kauffman Stadium attendance from last week (September 13^th-18^th) averaged out to 24,621 people per game. Last season during the same time period, attendance was at 16,952 people per game. The 2010 Royals had about the same record as the 2011 Royals (2010: 61-91, 2011:67-87) and both teams were eliminated from the playoffs right around the start of September.

The difference this year is that the players are still having a ton of fun on the diamond, which makes going to games much more exciting. The players on the Royals’ current roster genuinely love playing the game. Not only do they love playing the game, but they love winning, and they love winning together. They are a group of kids who really like each other and want to bring a winning team to Kansas City.

Does anyone think that Jose Guillen really liked playing for the Royals? How about Mike Jacobs? Ross Gload?

Doubtful.

And has any Royals team since 2003 been this excited about winning games in September?

Doubtful.

Has any Royals team had as much camaraderie and chemistry as this team besides in the ‘70’s or ‘80’s?

Highly doubtful.

Everyone on the roster is excited to be playing for this team in Kansas City. There’s no doubt that they are disappointed about how this season went, but you can sense that they are all anxious for 2012 to be here. The excitement on the field has brought excitement to the seats inside Kauffman Stadium. Expect the excitement to multiply in 2012.

Kansas City may no longer be the Siberia of the major leagues.

In years past, it seemed every veteran in KC was ready to pack his bags and head for greener pastures. Dating back to the 1990s, it seemed no one really wanted to stay with the Royals if there were bigger paydays and playoff games waiting elsewhere.

The most bitter of those days was when the Royals had to sell off an all-star outfield of Johnny Damon, Jermaine Dye and Carlos Beltran because they didn’t want to be Royals.

The trend continued right up to the past off-season, when the Royals had to part ways with Zack Greinke because the kid just could not wait around for the team to develop its young talent.

But in the last few weeks, at least one veteran has voiced his desire to help KC build a contender, then backed up those words by putting his name on a contract extension.

After putting together a solid first half, teams were actually inquiring about trades for the much-maligned Jeff Francoeur. But Francoeur went public, proclaiming his faith in the direction of the franchise and expressing his desire to be part of the movement.

Now, you might be tempted to question the motives of a player basically lobbying for a job. Considering it was just a few months ago that no one saw Francoeur as more than a platoon player, it might seem he was just trying to parlay a few good months into a secure gig.

But Francoeur could have kept silent long enough to let the game play out. A trade to a contending team at a time when he was playing well could have helped to resurrect his image.

Instead Francoeur chose to speak out about his satisfaction with the city, the team and the leadership of the franchise. And last week he signed on for two more seasons, making himself a part of the rebuilding project during those crucial seasons when he will be 28 and 29 years old.

What’s the big deal? Well, though Francoeur may not be Willie Mays, he is a legit major leaguer with experience in big markets and playoff races. And he wants to play the prime years of his career in KC.

That example should carry some weight with other players nearing the end of their contracts – Alex Gordon, Melky Cabrera, Joakim Soria. The Royals must put a lock on the revolving door that has permitted the exit of every talented player (minus Mike Sweeney) seemingly since the 1990s.

In order to build a winner, not only do you have to grow up young talent, you have to be able to retain the good players you want to keep. Signing Francoeur looks like a step in the right direction.

I love it when the Cardinals are in first place. Absolutely, positively love it. Mostly because it means exactly what it is: The Cardinals are in first place. But, I also love it because it of what it infers: The cubs are NOT in first place, and trail the Cardinals in some capacity. I admit to being a homer, I even said to a friend earlier today that I “am not drunk on Cardinals Kool-Aid, but I do drink the stuff.”. Having said that, I want to look back at the general feeling in Cardinal nation at a couple of intervals, then look forward.

Feb 23rd: Cardinals fans (in general) figured they’d have a fight on their hands, but if things went just right for the redbirds, and just wrong for the Reds & Brewers (and cubs, depending on who you spoke with), the Cards could win the National League Central division. Then came the Wainwright news on the 24th. Hearts in Cardinal nation sank, hearts (and players) in Cincinnati sang, and lines in Vegas shifted. Suddenly, the Cards “had no shot”.

Chris Carpenter talks to Jake Westbrook while Kyle Lohse & Kyle McClellan look on

March 30th: Fast forward five weeks Opening Day. By & large, the general consensus for the pitching staff was: Carpenter (#1) would need to be the Cy Young contender that he’s been in recent years, and with Waino on hielo, the Cardinals could ill-afford to waste a single Carpenter start all year. Westbrook (#2) made sense to move to the second slot, more on that in a moment. He had a solid 2010 second half with the Cards, and with a little run support (4 runs) he very well could’ve been a perfect 8-0 in a Cardinals uniform-he pitched that well. The assumption was that his performance wouldn’t be that different, and having just signed him to a 2-year deal in the offseason, his importance is now huge, with Wainwright out. Garcia (#3) certainly had success as a rookie, but he probably takes more losses in the 2 hole, and to make him third is significantly better in terms of match-ups during the year, not to mention the starting rotation’s only southpaw fits comfortably sandwiched between two righties ahead of & behind him. Then there were two big questions at the back of the rotation. Where on the spectrum of 2003/2008 Kyle Lohse to the Lohse we’ve seen over the past few years, would the 2011 Kyle Lohse (#4) be pitching from? The answer would likely play a big role in the Cards success level this season. Finally, Kyle McClellan (#5) would emerge from spring training as a starter, for the first time in his major league career. Although he “stretches out and acts like a starter every spring training”, we’d yet to see how he would perform in the starting role. Being the 5th man takes a lot of pressure off, and quite frankly, it’s the only realistic slot for him. Speaking of “Frankly”, I think we all knew Ryan Franklin was going to be the closer, and most fans probably thought little of that, until thinking about late August. Other minor chatter surfaced here & there about the ‘pen, but nothing major.

May 11th: Six weeks into the season, and here’s my take on how much things have changed since Opening Day. Carp just notched his first win of the year, and it took him 8 starts to get it. Granted, that’s not entirely his fault (only one of those 8 was in Arizona, after all), and sure we’re looking at Ws & Ls…a somewhat faulty benchmark anyway (SABR Alert!). So much for making every Carp start count. Fortunately, we’re in May, so a lot of the “He’s on pace to…” talk is over, and we don’t have to listen to how he’s on pace for 4 wins this year. (Oops!) Westbrook? Other than the ERA near 7, triple the number of earned runs as Jamie Garcia, less than 40 IP in 8 starts, and a K/BB ratio of 1, he’s been mediocre. Garcia, 4-0 with a 4 K/BB, and sub-2 ERA, has been nothing short of outstanding thus far. Can’t say enough about the job this kid has done to this point-could be a legit #2 guy on a lot of clubs with what we’ve seen so far. #4 guy, Kyle Lohse is healthy, and looks very good! He’s rocking a 2.9 K/BB and 0.860 WHIP to go along with his 4-2 record. One of those losses was a 107-pitch outing where he went 8 strong, scattering 6 hits, giving up only one run. Unfortunately, this was during a 14-inning streak where the Cards were no-hit, and Lohse got no run support in that last outing. K-Mac has also seen the right mixture of lucky & good so far. At 5-0, his control has been less-than-ideal at times, but he’s gotten the job done, and has proven to be as reliable a 5th starter as the Cardinals could have hoped for.

Dave Duncan talks with Molina (left) and Jamie Garcia

The Royals surprising start thus far has been built on middle of the order production, defense and shutdown performances from a very young bullpen. As expected, the weak link has been the starting pitching. Royals starters are sporting a collective 5.17 ERA, worst in the American League. That the team with the worst starting ERA has jumped out to a 17-14 record is a minor miracle. It is also the major factor preventing many fans from fully buying into this team as a contender just yet.

photo by Minda Haas

I have delved deep into the numbers to see how the Royals rotation stacks up within the AL Central. The results probably will not be encouraging to the Royals faithful, though there is some reason to hope for minor improvement.

My ranking of the rotations (through May 4):

The White Sox, Indians, and Tigers clearly have the superior rotations to this point, with the Twins and Royals lagging far behind. But here is one reason for (slight) optimism I found:

While the starters have so far allowed runs at a terrible rate, their xFIP suggests some of that is bad luck and the staff ERA has the potential to decrease significantly. The bad news is that their 4.30 xFIP is still only good for fourth in the division.

Here is how that ERA/xFIP discrepancy is distributed among the Royals starters:

Those ugly ERAs from Davies, Francis, and Hochevar are three of the worst five among ALC starters, but there is significant room for improvement if their xFIPs are any indication. Those three have the most “unlucky” ERA to xFIP ratio among ALC starters. The biggest reason I see for this is the high rate of fly balls that are leaving the park: 13% of fly balls have gone for home runs against KC starters, highest in the majors, and a number that should dip closer to the norm of 9.5-10%.

But even with room to expect improvement, the starting staff as now made up will continue to be the achilles’ heel of the 2011 Royals and temper dreams of contending for the division crown. If the team continues overcoming the starting rotation and can hang around .500 or better, the Royals front office will face critical decisions about promoting one or more of the arms from the farm. People who know about these things suggest Mike Montgomery and Danny Duffy are close and could have an impact. The early promotion of Eric Hosmer suggests one or more of those pitchers could follow him to KC soon. If the offense, defense and bullpen can carry on at current levels, a shot in the arm to the rotation could really start to make this team interesting.

For more nerd kicks, a look at the AL Central pitchers by their average game score (through May 4):

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