I had the opportunity to take in my first 2012 St. Louis Cardinal game at Busch Stadium this past Sunday, as they defeated the punch-less Cubs behind a very solid pitching performance from Jake Westbrook and tremendous days at the plate from Yadier Molina and Matt Carpenter. That win pushed the Cardinals to 7-3 on the young season.

One of the worst mistakes any blogger/journalist can make is take a small sample size (like 10 games) and make a lot of assumptions or unreasonable projections, but soaking in the beautiful day at Busch Stadium during a blowout of the Cubbies….I just could not help myself.

I began to ask a lot of “what if” questions.

-What if this team under new leadership, starts another great era of Cardinal baseball without a reloading period following the key off-season losses?

Mike Matheny has been preaching respect. He has preached playing the Cardinal Way. He has reminded the team what it means to wear the Birds on the Bat. They are playing hard and playing with confidence. The Cardinals could not have asked for a better start to the season. If you had told me that the first two weeks would be played without Allen Craig, Skip Schumaker, and Chris Carpenter, see Lance Berkman, David Freese, Jon Jay, and Carlos Beltran miss time with aches and pains, AND yet to have the “real” Adam Wainwright make an appearance; I would have predicted 3-8 not 8-3. Many experts in the industry warned of a mediocre season for St. Louis following the loss of Pujols, Duncan, and LaRussa. There are 25 solid players in the clubhouse and a coaching staff that does not believe a “reload” is necessary. They play hard for each other and want to win now.

Could this mix of veterans and deep farm system usher in a new era of being perennial playoff contenders, just like 2000-06, when the Cardinals made the playoffs six out of seven consecutive seasons? What if…..

-What if Matheny does not listen to the doubters who say he can not manage a winning ballclub without any experience…and the team keeps on winning ?

-What if Kyle Lohse and Jake Westbrook continue pitching this well in their contract years?

-What if Pujols did not afford the other batters in the lineup as much protection as we thought he did? These guys can hit the baseball. It is a solid, deep, and balanced lineup.

-What if the bullpen is actually better this year than it was last year? Matheny lets relievers who are pitching well stay in the game, as opposed to playing the matchups constantly like LaRussa did. He looks more at the quality of the pitches that night, and less at the spreadsheet of past performance. This just might create an added level of confidence in the bullpen that the better they perform, the more they get to pitch.

-What if the team makes great selections with five of the first 59 draft picks?…and keeps stocking its deep farm system with future impact players. The model of surrounding four or five key veterans with young talent seems to be the Cardinals best chance for sustained excellence. They have a tremendous opportunity during this year’s draft to get a bunch of great young talent that they can keep for at least  six years at a very reasonable price.

-What if Carpenter returns to form by summer and Wainwright returns to his former dominant self? The rotation would be just plain scary.

-What if this team is tired of the talk they can’t repeat without Pujols and LaRussa? Touched on this one above, but this is a highly talented group of professionals with a very competitive edge. This was most evidence by several players showing up to camp after a short off-season in the best shape of their lives. They are motivated to win this year.

Look, I know everything seems like rainbows and lollipops after such a fast start. The trials will come. Matheny will cost them a game with a bad decision at some point. But as I sat in the bleachers Sunday afternoon, I had a realization of just how many things are going right in Cardinal Nation right now.

For years, the talk was how losing Pujols would derail the organization into mediocrity. I am simply proposing that may not be the case. In fact, this organization may be the brink of a new standard of sustained excellence. That is a very big leap to make after 11 games, I know. This could be the start of another spell of playoff runs like the team had at the start of the century.

With a solid rotation, deep lineup, a manager they love to play for, and motivation to silence the doubters, they have as good a chance as any to make quite a run for seasons to come.

It has been 43 years since the St. Louis Cardinals appeared in consecutive World Series.  One has to go back before the advent of divisional play to find the last instance:  1967-68.  The Cardinals have won the National League in back-to-back years twice before, 1930-31, and 1942-44.  The Cardinals have never won the Fall Classic in consecutive years; the 1942 and 1944 titles are the closest they’ve ever come to accomplishing that.

Winning two straight titles is hard for teams not named the New York Yankees, and especially hard for National League franchises.  The first team to do so – the 1907-1908 Chicago Cubs – has not won a World Series since.  A historical oddity, sure, but let’s not miss a chance to tweak Cub fans. The list of NL franchises who have successfully defended their title is short and sweet.

• Chicago Cubs (successful defense in 1908)
• New York Giants (successful defense in 1922)
• Cincinnati Reds (successful defense in 1976)

That’s it.  A National League franchise has successfully defended its title once since the end of the Dead Ball Era.  St Louis will have to defy 9o years of history to join the Cincinnati Reds as the only NL team to accomplish the feat since Babe Ruth played.

That’s not the only challenge, of course – the Cardinals have to win the NL first to play for the World Title.  For the purposes of this discussion, we will assume St Louis qualifies for the playoffs either as a wild card or the NL Central champs.  As you might expect, it is considerably more difficult to win the National League today under the current post-season format.  During the 65 seasons when the league’s best record played in the World Series, a team won back-to-back NL titles 17 times.  Said another way, a defending champ had a 1 in 4 chance of a successful league title defense.  Since the playoff system was instituted, only 11% of World Series included an NL participant who was there the previous year (5 of 42).  The AL percentages are higher across the board, thanks to some team called the Yankees, but even in the AL there has been a drop in repeats since 1968.

Does this mean St Louis will not repeat?  No; each season is unique, just like each team is unique.  The loss of Albert Pujols weakened the middle of the order, but the acquisition of Carlos Beltran should replace most of that lost offense.  The return of Adam Wainwright makes the 2012 rotation far stronger than the 2011 version.  St Louis has as good a chance of repeating as World Champs as any recent team.  The hardest part won’t just be winning the Series; it will be getting there in the first place to defend their title.

Mike Metzger is a baseball writer based in San Diego. He also blogs about the Padres. Follow him on Twitter.

In sports, music, and entertainment, legends come along every so often that need only a first name. The Babe, Pele, Madonna (or Lady Gaga’s mom as many of my friends commented during the Super Bowl), Usher, Prince, P Diddy/Daddy/Dandy or whatever the latest name is. If we are talking about basketball and I say “MJ”, you immediately know who I am referring to. If we are talking music, and I say “MJ” you know immediately who I mean.

In sports, those one-name figures cast a shadow so large that it takes a long time before it feels right to watch anyone else play “their” position on “their” team. I was flipping through the channels just the other day, and stopped on the Chicago Bulls game for just a few minutes. Derrick Rose is one of the NBA’s best players, no question about it. For me, it still just does not feel right watching a Bulls superstar not named Michael, even though he has not worn a Bulls jersey since 1996.

In Cardinal Nation, there is a larger-than-life player that also walked away from the game in 1996. He also needs only one name to be remembered; of course I am talking about Ozzie. Ozzie (Smith) was Rookie of the Year in 1978, won an astounding 13-straight Gold Gloves from 1980-1992, played in 15 All-Star Games, was runner-up MVP in 1987 despite not hitting one home run, and was eventually voted into the Baseball Hall of Fame. In what I consider the most telling stat, Ozzie led the team in WAR (wins above replacement) each season from 1983-1995 (check out Derek Goold’s piece for a great read on this). No other Cardinal has led the team in WAR that many consecutive seasons.

*Quick sidenote: Just as a means of showing the effect of inflation and free-agency on the game, Ozzie made $31.5M during his 15 seasons with the Cardinals.

More than incredible stats, he was the face of the Whiteyball era, and provided 15 years of excellent shortstop play that has not been matched since. He was the back-flip to start the game. He was the guy that kept you glued to the TV not knowing just what he might do next. It still does not feel quite right to me watching anyone else play shortstop for the Cardinals. It takes time to fill the shoes of the legend…actually that is not correct…it takes time to be OK with them not being filled. Ozzie’s shadow still looms large.

This article will look briefly at Ozzie’s career, the shortstops since Ozzie, and what we can reasonably expect from the shortstop position this season with Rafael Furcal as the starter.

During Ozzie’s 15 years with the Cardinals, he had 1944 hits, 644 RBIs, 433 SBs, and a .272 BA. He was the perfect offensive spark during the Whiteyball era of manufacuring runs. Let’s take 1995 and 1996 (age 40 and 41 seasons) out of the equation for a minute and look at average production between 1982-1994.

During those years Ozzie averaged the following line per season:

Ozzie Smith 1982-1994

AB        R       2B    3B   HR    RBI    SB   BB   Avg

521      72     25    4      2        49      32    64   .273

While these are good offensive numbers, he would not be a Hall-of-Famer simply based on this offensive production alone.

Average WAR 1982-94: 4.42      Total WAR 1982-94: 57.5

WAR by Season

1982: 4.0   1983: 3.0   1984: 4.4   1985: 5.7   1986: 5.3   1987: 7.1   1988: 5.5   1989: 6.3   1990: 2.8   1991: 4.7   1992: 4.3

1993: 2.5   1994: 1.9

WAR factors in defensive play (runs saved above replacement level), and Ozzie’s D was a huge factor in his outstanding WAR levels during his Cardinal years. Only once since he retired has a Cardinal shortstop (Edgar Renteria 2003) had a season WAR higher than Ozzie’s average WAR as a Cardinal. No Cardinal shortstop has topped his season total of 7.1 in 1987. That is impressive.

Here are the season averages for shortstops post-Ozzie. If they were the primary starter all year, only their stats will be measured. If multiple players started a significant number of games, their numbers will be combined for the year(s) being measured. All stat lines are an average per season of the year(s) measured.

Royce Clayton 1997

AB        R       2B    3B   HR    RBI    SB   BB   Avg

576     75      39    5      9         61     30   33   .266

WAR: 2.6

Royce Clayton, Luis Ordaz, David Howard 1998

AB        R       2B    3B   HR    RBI    SB   BB   Avg

546      83      25    2      6        49     21    64   .214

WAR: -1.5

Edgar Renteria 1999-2004

AB        R       2B    3B   HR    RBI    SB   BB   Avg

560      83      35    2     12      75      25   51   .290

Average WAR 1999-2004: 3.0      Total WAR 1999-2004: 18

WAR by Season

1999: 1.4   2000: 2.2   2001: 1.2   2002: 4.2   2003: 6.5   2004: 2.5

David Eckstein 2005-2006

AB        R       2B    3B   HR    RBI    SB   BB   Avg

565      79      22    4     5         42     9      43    .293

Average WAR 2005-2006: 3.2      Total WAR 2005-2006: 6.4

WAR by Season

2005: 4.2   2006: 2.2

David Eckstein, Brendan Ryan 2007

AB        R       2B    3B   HR    RBI    SB   BB   Avg

614      88      32     0     7        43      17   39   .302

WAR: 3.2

Cesar Izturis, Brendan Ryan 2008

AB        R       2B    3B   HR    RBI    SB   BB   Avg

611       80     19     3      1        34      31   45    .264

WAR: 1.8

Brendan Ryan, Julio Lugo, Tyler Greene 2009

AB        R       2B    3B   HR    RBI    SB   BB   Avg

646       88     33     11    7       57     23   45    .277

WAR: 3.9

Brendan Ryan, Tyler Greene 2010

AB        R       2B    3B   HR    RBI    SB   BB   Avg

543     64     24     3      3         46     22   46    .223

WAR: 1.4

Ryan Theriot, Nick Punto, Daniel Descalso, Rafael Furcal 2011

2011 saw each of these four guys start at shortstop at some point. Everyone but Descalso saw significant playing time at another infield position so short of going through 162 box scores, there is no easy way to split out production from shortstop position for 162 games. For the sake of this article, we will look at the WAR totals for each of the four players that manned the position at some point

Theriot 2011 WAR: 0.00    NIck Punto 2011 WAR: 1.5   Descalso 2011 WAR: 1.2   Furcal 2011 WAR: 1.4

The numbers above show the Cardinals have not received anywhere near the production at shortstop they had during the Ozzie years. Save a couple of Renteria’s seasons and one of Eckstein’s, the Cardinals shortstops have produced at average to below-average levels.

Cardinal fans hope that changes in 2012. Reversing that trend falls on the shoulders of Rafael Furcal. He will have the opportunity to be the everyday shortstop this season, and gives the Cardinals a prototypical leader hitter they have not had in a number of years.

While Furcal will certainly not be Ozzie this year (age 34 season), he does provide hope for good, consistent play that is long overdue at shortstop. If he can stay healthy and approach career norms, he could give the Cardinals better production at the position than they have since 2003. Going back to Furcal’s rookie season of 2000, he has posted the following WAR totals in seasons where he has been healthy:

2000: 3.6   2002: 2.1   2003: 4.9   2004: 2.6   2005: 5.9   2006: 3.0   2007:  1.3   2009: 2.4   2010:  3.8  

A return to 2010 production would exceed the average of the Renteria, Eckstein, and Clayton years. A return to 2005 production, while very unlikely at age 34, would be the best season for a Cardinal shortstop since 2003 and 1989 before that.

Ozzie’s shadow still looms large over the Cardinal shortstop position. He was a once-in-a-generation shortstop. We may never see another like him wear the birds on the bat. But there is hope at shortstop for the 2012 season. There is also a kid by the name of Ryan Jackson that will be at Memphis this year. He is pretty darn good, and will have his chance to be the shortstop of the future. Ozzie’s shoes can never be filled. Furcal and Jackson, however, could be a significant upgrade over what the Cardinals have seen for the last 15 seasons.

While most of the attention from Cardinals fans the next six weeks will rightfully be focused on the team’s attempt to catch and pass the Brewers for the NL Central title, another more personal battle will be going on at the same time.

Albert Pujols and Lance Berkman, who have adjoining lockers in the Cardinals’ clubhouse, will be going head-to-head in a competition for the NL’s home run title. Pujols pulled into the lead on Sunday night with his 29^th homer of the year, one more than Berkman and the Dodgers’ Matt Kemp, who hit his 28^th homer on Sunday.

This is the first time in franchise history that the Cardinals have had the top two home run hitters in the league this late into the season. The last time a National League team finished the year with the first and second place home run hitters was 1965, when Willie Mays and Willie McCovey of the Giants accomplished the feat.

Pujols has led the league in home runs the last two seasons, and is trying to become the first Cardinal in history to lead the league in homers for three consecutive seasons. The only two St. Louis players who have won two home run titles in back-to-back seasons were Johnny Mize in 1939 and 1940 and Mark McGwire in 1998 and 1999.

The last hitter to win three consecutive home run crowns in the NL was Mike Schmidt of the Phillies from 1974 to 1976. Schmidt is the only player to complete the hat trick since Ralph Kiner of the Pirates won or tied for seven consecutive home run titles between 1946 and 1952.

With 29 homers on the season and just 41 games to play, Pujols is on a pace for 39 homers. Berkman, who has never led the league in homers in his career, is on pace to finish with 37 homers, meaning this could be the first year since 1992 that the home run title was won with less than 40 homers. Fred McGriff of the Padres led the league that year with 35 home runs. Dante Bichette of Colorado won the 1995 crown with 40 home runs.

This also could well be the sixth consecutive season the league-leading home run total fell from the previous year, starting with Ryan Howard’s total of 58 in 2006, down to 50 for Prince Fielder in 2007, 48 by Howard in 2008 and 47 and 42 from Pujols the last two years.

Berkman also has his sights set on breaking the Cardinals’ franchise record for most home runs by a switch-hitter, 35, set by Ripper Collins in 1934. He also is attempting to become the first outfielder, and non-first baseman, to lead the league since Andruw Jones did it for the Braves in 2005.

The closest the Cardinals have come to having the top two home run hitters in the league was in 1928, when Jim Bottomley and Hack Wilson of the Cubs tied for the title with 31 homers and Chick Hafey finished third with 27.

This year’s race will not just be between Pujols and Berkman, however. After Sunday’s games, six other players were within three homers of the two Cardinals and Kemp, who hit his 28^th homer on Sunday. The group includes Fielder and Dan Uggla of the Braves with 27 homers; Howard of the Phillies, Mike Stanton of the Marlins and Jay Bruce of the Reds, all with 26 homers, and Justin Upton of the Diamondbacks with 25.

Only seven players in Cardinals history have led the league in homers. In addition to Pujols, McGwire, Mize and Bottomley, Joe Medwick tied for the title in 1937, Collins tied for the league lead in 1934 and Rogers Hornsby was the first Cardinal to do it, in 1922 and then again in 1925.

Both Pujols and Berkman also are climbing the ranks in career home run totals. Pujols is now at 437 for his career, one behind Andre Dawson fox 38^th place on the all-time list. He is within 10 of passing Vladimir Guerrero and Chipper Jones, which would place him third among active players behind Alex Rodriguez and Jim Thome. Since the start of the 2001 season, Pujols has hit the same number of homers as Rodriguez for the most in the majors since that time, and Pujols’ total of 118 the last three years leads the major leagues.

Berkman now has 355 home runs and ranks fourth all-time for the most home runs hit by a switch-hitter. He is second among active players in that category, trailing Chipper Jones.

Rooting for both Pujols and Berkman to continue hitting home runs also could figure into the Cardinals’ attempt to chase down the Brewers. Sunday night’s win over Colorado improved the Cardinals’ record when they hit at least one home run to 49-29. They are 16-27 when they fail to hit a homer. Even better, the team’s record is 25-8 when they hit two or more home runs in a game.

Head over to RobRains.com and see Rob’s notes on Major and Minor League Baseball by clicking here.