The St. Louis Cardinals have had a very good start to the 2012 season with 16 wins and a 2.5 game lead in the NL Central heading into play Saturday. But the schedule in May is not quite as easy as the one the Cardinals cruised through in April.

The Cardinals finish up a stretch of 27 consecutive games against NL Central opponents Sunday. They will play only two games against a divisional opponent, the Chicago Cubs May 14-15, for the next 27 games on the schedule.

Although the Cardinals played an odd early season schedule with so many divisional games, it worked out in their favor because the division doesn’t appear to be that strong this year. The Cincinnati Reds were the only other NL Central team to have a winning record heading into play Saturday.

The Cardinals will start to face tougher competition soon, however, and it will come in a hurry. They will play 16 of those upcoming 27 games against teams with a record of .500 or better.

So, while the Cardinals’ starting pitching has been magnificent so far this season, the rotation will truly be put to the test in the coming weeks. This would be a good time for Adam Wainwright to return to Cy Young award-winning form.

Although the upcoming schedule is more difficult, it could also be a bit of a blessing for the Cardinals. Playing divisional opponents all of the time has started to get stale, and different competition might help the team remain sharp.

The Cardinals have shown a few vulnerabilities of late. They had the Pittsburgh Pirates blown out early Tuesday but allowed the Pirates to get back in the game late. The Cardinals still won 10-7 and pounded the Bucs again the next night 12-3.

However, the Cardinals also continued a disturbing trend Thursday when the Pirates beat them 6-3. That was the fourth series the Cardinals had a chance to sweep, and they have yet to put the broom to the floor this season.

That trend can’t continue once the Cardinals venture out against better teams. They likely won’t have as many opportunities to complete a sweep, which is also why it has been painful to see them allow teams to steal the final game of a series so often.

A team that averages two wins out of every three games will have a fantastic season and win more than 105 games, but that is unrealistic. To maintain a first-place worthy record, good teams have to play well against other good teams, but they also have to dominate the bad teams.

The Cardinals have played some bad teams already this season, and they have dominated them in several games. But, they haven’t put the final stamp on a series and prove the point that some teams simply can’t compete with the Cardinals on a day-to-day basis.

Granted, I know we’re splitting hairs here. The Cardinals have gotten off to a wonderful start to the season. They have managed to avoid the devastating Mariano Rivera-type injury despite an old roster.

However, as I said before the season began, pitching will be the key to the Cardinals success. If the pitching staff performs well throughout May, the Cardinals will likely have proved they are a worthy contender for the National League pennant.

The last three weeks we took a look around the outfield. Beginning this week we start working our way around the infield. Starting with perhaps the most important position within. Where defense, especially where the National League is concerned, carries as much weight as offense. Shortstop.

For the Cardinals the infield figures to look drastically different than opening day in 2011.  Lance Berkman takes over at first base, Rafael Furcal returns to shortstop, and it appears Tyler Greene, yes that Tyler Greene will get a shot as the starting second baseman. This could be the year that David Freese establishes himself as one of the best third basemen in the sport after his breakout October.

I digress. Rafael Furcal gives the Cardinals their best opening day starter at short since Edgar Renteria. Now before all the David Eckstein supporters get all hot and bothered understand, as scrappy and terrific as he was, Furcal offers a better defensive presence and hits leadoff. The hope for St. Louis is they get more of the Furcal they saw in St. Louis after the trade than the one in LA or masquerading as the Cardinal shortstop during the playoffs.

In a division with a legitimate All-Star, Starlin Castro, holding court up on the north side of Chicago and plenty of rookies and new comers 2012 should prove an interesting year in the NL Central. Here is the breakdown.

Cubs shortstop Starlin Castro logged an impressive 2011. With 21 steals and a .307 average, the 21-year-old has developed a terrific profile for a leadoff hitter and if he can expand on his power next season he could join the top tier of shortstop options. Castro had five hitting streaks of at least 10 games, and he finished the season with a streak of reaching base safely in 40 consecutive games. He finished with 57 multi-hit games, tied for the NL lead with three others, and led the league in at-bats. What Castro does need to improve upon is his defense — he led all Major League shortstops with 29 errors.

Rookie shortstop Zack Cozart had Tommy John reconstructive surgery only 11 games into the 2011 season.  Since the surgery was on his non-throwing elbow, Cozart has already resumed baseball activities and is thought of as a top candidate to ultimately capture the shortstop position full time. During those 11 games for Cincinnati — including nine starts — following a July 7 promotion from Triple-A Louisville, Cozart batted .307 with two home runs and three RBIs. His career in the Majors began with a seven-game hitting streak.  Shortstop has been one of the most unstable positions for the Reds over the past several years, and that’s something they very much want to correct.

New to the NL Central is Jed Lowrie.  Lowrie, a switch-hitter who has been injured often in his four-year Major League career, will become the Astros’ starter at shortstop. In his time with Boston The 27-year-old was never able to accumulate more than 300 at-bats in a season.  Lowrie doesn’t possess great range at shortstop, but his strength is his ability to hit left-handed pitching. He’s a career .326 hitter with a .385 on-base percentage against left-handers, but against right-handers is just a .214 hitter with a .293 on-base percentage. One thing Lowrie will bring is playoff experience, having helped the Red Sox reach the postseason in 2008 and ’09.

The Brewers signed Alex Gonzalez, filling the most glaring hole on their roster before at the Winter Meetings. Gonzalez has played at least 110 games in eight of the past nine seasons — he sat out 2008 because of a family issue — and is considered a plus defensive player. He was with the Braves in ’11, hitting .241 with 15 home runs and 56 RBIs. Offensively, he is similar to his predecessor, Yuniesky Betancourt. Gonzalez (.270 on-base percentage) and Betancourt (.271) had the lowest on-base percentage of qualifying National League hitters.

The Pirates have filled their hole at shortstop, replacing Ronny Cedeno with Clint Barmes. Barmes played a Gold Glove-caliber shortstop last season for the Astros who elected not to bring him back in 2012. Barmes led all regular NL shortstops in 2011 with a 7.9 ultimate zone rating, a sabermetric statistic that calculates how many more runs a player saves on defense than an average replacement.  Barmes missed the first couple of weeks of the season after breaking his hand in Spring Training and wound up hitting .244 with 12 homers and 39 RBIs.

The 34-year-old Rafael Furcal came to the Cards from the Dodgers in a Trade Deadline deal and hit .255 with a .316 on-base percentage in 50 regular-season games with St. Louis. Furcal had a rough time at the plate in the playoffs, hitting below .200 in both the NLCS and World Series. What keeps him in the game is his defense. Even at 34 his range and arm are among the best in baseball.  Furcal turned a National League shortstop-high 36 double plays and was ranked second in both total chances (238) and assists (155).

Looking back on 2011 and based on past performance, career trends  and my mood today here is how I see them stacking up in 2012.

1. Starlin Castro
2. Alex Gonzalez
3. Rafael Furcal
4. Zack Cozart
5. Jed Lowrie
6. Clint Barmes

In a division with a legitimate All-Star, Starlin Castro , holding court up on the north side of Chicago and plenty of rookies and new comers 2012 should prove an interesting year in the NL Central.

Follow Derek on twitter at @SportsbyWeeze

SURPRISE, AZ – The Salt River Rafters topped the Surprise Saguaros last Saturday to claim the Arizona Fall League crown. But that doesn’t discount the strides the Royals’ prospects, particularly the offensive players, made during their eight weeks in Arizona.

Surprise finished with the best record in the 20-year history of the circuit, posting a 26-10 record during the Fall League season. The Saguaros lost consecutive games only once, and the Royals’ three offensive players on the squad, Wil Myers, Christian Colon, and Anthony Seratelli, all fared pretty well. But Myers in particular impressed, as he was named to the Arizona Fall League’s All-Prospect Team.

Myers’ accomplishments for the Fall League season came after a injury-riddled disappointing campaign during the regular season with the Naturals, and may have set the Royals’ top hitting prospect on the fast track to Kansas City. During early October, Royals’ brass was quoted in the Kansas City Star indicating the Myers would begin the 2012 season back in the Naturals’ lineup, but might have turned that timetable over after batting .360 with Surprise. Myers tied for the league lead in walks (20), and triples (5), ranked second in on-base percentage (.481), third in slugging percentage (.674), sixth in both average and runs (24). Even more impressive, he reached base safely via hit or walk in 22 of 23 games he played with Surprise, and scored a run in 18 of 23 contests. He also went 3-for-5 with a double, two RBI’s, a run, and a stolen base during the Rising Stars Game.

Myers describes his production as a product of better poise in the batter’s box, which has allowed him to lay off of pitches outside of the strike zone and drive the ball when opposing hurlers are forced to throw strikes.

“Basically, I’m having more confidence at the plate,” Myers said. “Just going up there knowing I can get hits is important. This year (in Northwest Arkansas) I swung at a lot of pitcher’s pitches…now I’m recognizing what they’re throwing and going deep into counts.”

Myers’ plate discipline has also caught the eye of J.J. Picollo, Kansas City’s Assistant General Manager of Scouting and Player Development.

“He’s seeing the ball very well right now,” Picollo explained. “He’s really maturing as a hitter, being more patient and not being so anxious. People in Double-A knew how good he was, so he got a lot of pitches off the plate. Now when they pitch him that way he’s getting into 2-1, 2-0 and 3-1 types of counts.”

Picollo pointed out that Myers’ improvement is even more exciting because the talent level in the Arizona Fall League is so high.

“Pitching in the fall league is a little better than Double-A,” he said. “Arm after arm coming out of the bullpen are good arms. To do what Wil is doing against a high-caliber type of pitching is great to see.”

In addition to his improved plate presence, Picollo thinks Myers’ power will catch up shortly.

“We all know he has a tremendous amount of power,” Picollo said. “That he hasn’t put up huge home run totals is just reflective of a young player in an advanced league. Remember, he’s one of just three players from his high school draft class to reach Double-A. The power will come out at some point in time. Right now he just needs to worry about hitting doubles, finding gaps, hitting to all fields. That’s part of the natural progression hitters make.”

Through three full seasons in the minor leagues, Myers has connected on 27 long balls, including eight homers in 99 games this year in the Texas League. He hit five in 22 games in 2009 and belted 14 in 126 games in 2010, while also ripping 37 doubles that season for Advanced Class-A Wilmington.

Those numbers were enough to rank him No. 10 on Baseball America’s Top-100 Prospects list entering the 2011 season, just behind fellow Royals’ cornerstones Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas. While it’s too early to tell if Myers will make the same type of year-four jumps those two made, his confidence is bolstered because of Kansas City’s willingness to call guys up when they are deserving.

“The Royals have a plan for me,” Myers said. “It’s cool to see those guys (Hosmer and Moustakas) move up, knowing that they like to promote from within.”

Picollo said Myers’ work ethic will serve him well as he tries to make his case for a promotion to Kansas City in the future.

“Wil’s competitive nature will help him. He wants to get to the big leagues, but at this point he just needs to worry about things he can control. He needs to work hard every day and play hard every day.”

Both Seratelli and Colon also finished with solid numbers. Colon, playing mostly second base, heated up late and lifted his average from the low-.200s to nearly .300, while Seratelli faded a bit with more playing time late but still finished with a .317 average and .436 on-base percentage against more advanced pitching. Seratelli hopes that the solid showing in the fall league can help his chance to make Triple-A Omaha next spring.

On the pitching end, Jeffress and Lafferty both fanned over a batter per inning but had a couple of rough outings that tainted their numbers. Jeffress was also victimized for four runs in a relief outing during the Championship Game that put the game squarely out of reach for Surprise.

Here is a look at the final statistics for all of the Royals prospects in Surprise.

Naturals/Texas League Notes

Springfield names new manager: Mike Shildt was named Monday as the new skipper of the Springfield Cardinals. He replaces Ron “Pop” Warner, who advances up a level to manage their Triple-A affiliate in Memphis. The remainder of the Springfield field staff remains intact from 2011. Shildt comes to Springfield after three seasons managing their rookie-level Appalachian League club in Johnson City. With Springfield’s announcement, four teams in the Texas League have announced their staffs for next season, with two of them bringing in new managers.

Winter League Report

Several other current and former Naturals are honing their craft this off-season playing in various winter leagues that span the globe.

Puerto Rico: Rey Navarro (Crillos de Caguas) appeared in just one game this past week but his hitless streak continues as his average slumped to .053… Irving Falu (Indios de Mayaguez) has a three-game hitting streak, with three-hit efforts in two of those games including three RBI’s on Sunday… Angel Sanchez, teammates with Falu in Mayaguez, is batting .237 in ten games thus far. He may be in line for more duty next year with the Astros as their starting shortstop from 2011, Clint Barmes, signed with Pittsburgh.

Venezuela: Mario Lisson (Navegantes de Magallanes) had a 2-for-3 effort Sunday to raise his average to .258… Former Natural Jose Duarte (Leones de Caracas), who is currently a minor league free agent, hasn’t had a hit since November 8^th, but during that time his playing time has dried up and he’s received only three at-bats, being used primarily as a defensive sub… Ernesto Mejia (Aguilas del Zulia) has hit in five of six games, a couple being multi-hit efforts, as his average lifts to .297. As typical, Mejia is feasting on winter league pitchers, as he has four homers and has 23 runs driven in so far…Manny Pina (Bravos de Margarita) has struggled in 14 games thus far, batting .129.

Dominican Republic: Manauris Baez (Estrellas de Oriente) fanned seven in six scoreless innings in his most recent start, and now has a 1.64 ERA in six outings, including five starts… Mario Santiago (Tigres del Licey) allowed a pair of runs in five innings in his start on Sunday. Santiago has 27 strikeouts and eight walks in 35 1/3 innings…Willy Lebron, Santiago’s rotation-mate in Licey and fellow Royals’ farmhand, hasn’t pitched since leaving a game with an arm injury on November 6^th … Kelvin Herrera (Leones del Escogido) continues to mount a resume for 2012, as he’s gone scoreless in all nine of his outings. He’s teammates with Everett Teaford, who pitched 5 2/3 scoreless in his last outing on November 16^th to lower his ERA to 3.57 in four starts.

Mexico: Federico Castaneda (Tomateros de Culiacan) continues to be one of the busier relievers in winter ball, as his outing Friday was already his 15^th of the winter league season. After a couple rough early outings, Castaneda has settled in, keeping the opposition scoreless in his last five games to lower the ERA to 6.97.

These teams and respective leagues will play the round-robin Caribbean Series which takes place in February just before early reports for Major League Spring Training.

Transaction log: Ryan Verdugo, the southpaw the Royals acquired from the Giants in the trade that also brought southpaw Jonathan Sanchez to Kansas City was added to the 40-Man roster on Friday, protecting him from the Rule 5 Draft which will occur December 8^th at the Baseball Winter Meetings in Dallas.

Check nwanaturals.com every two weeks beginning Friday, December 2^nd for our Hot Stove Report, where we’ll continue to follow Royals’ minor leaguers in winter ball as well as cover other off-season baseball information that pertains to the Naturals and the Texas League.

The Northwest Arkansas Naturals are the Double-A Texas League affiliate of the Kansas City Royals and play at state-of-the-art Arvest Ballpark, located in Springdale. Visit our website, nwanaturals.com, for information on season tickets and ticket plans.

St Louis rode timely hitting and a hot bullpen to a 2-1 series lead. However, including Kyle Lohse’s start on Thursday, a possible chink has appeared in the Cardinal armor. Their starting pitchers are not getting deep into games anymore. This is the exact opposite of the Philadelphia series, where four of the five games saw Cardinal starters throw pitches in the sixth inning or later (the lone exception was Chris Carpenter’s short rest, 3 inning Game 2 start).

Does it matter? Not really. Here’s why.

Tony LaRussa changed his post-season roster to add an eighth pitcher. So armed, he has deployed his bullpen early and often, and matched up his pitchers against Milwaukee’s hitters. He’s also done a good job not overusing his bullpen, as evidenced in the below list. Relievers are ordered based on when they first appeared in the series; ‘bf’ is short for ‘batters faced’; ‘g’ is short for ‘game’.

• Octavio Dotel: 6 bf (g1), 4 bf (g4)
• Lance Lynn: 4 bf (g1), 1 bf (g2), 4 bf (g3)
• Kyle McClellan: 3 bf (g1)
• Marc Rzepczynski: 2 bf g1), 4 bf (g2), 1 bf (g3)
• Mitchell Boggs 4 bf (g1), 4 bf (g2), 5 bf (g4)
• Arthur Rhodes 1 bf (g2), 3 bf (g4)
• Fernando Salas 3 bf (g2), 3 bf (g3), 7 bf (g4)
• Jason Motte 3 bf (g2), 4 bf (g3)

LaRussa has spread the workload around. Only Lynn and Salas have appeared in three consecutive games. Even those streaks were broken by the off-day between Games 2 and 3. His middle relievers have seen a lot of action – Boggs and Salas have faced 13 hitters each in this series – but the back of the bullpen has been judiciously used, especially the two lefties and Motte.

Randy Wolf shut down the Cardinals Thursday night, as he has all season, and ensured the NLCS will return to Milwaukee. If St Louis is able to again hit like they did in the first 19 innings of this series it won’t matter how deep their starters get. If, however, the remaining game action settles into a pitching duel the Cardinals starting rotation’s inability to get into the sixth inning may come back to haunt them. The Cardinal starters are better than their middle relievers, and to win this series they will need their best pitchers on the mound pitching well.

Mike Metzger is a life-long Cardinals fan watching the NLCS with bated breath. He is the author of Padres Trail, a San Diego Padres blog. Follow him on twitter @metzgermg.

Vince Coleman will celebrate his 50^th birthday in September, and he is still confident that he could lead this year’s Cardinals in stolen bases.

“There’s no doubt in my mind I could do it,” Coleman said by phone this week from his home in San Diego. “Have them call me. I’d be glad to go out there and steal a base or two.”

It would not take many more than that for Coleman to become the team’s leader in stolen bases, which has dramatically become a lost art to anyone wearing a St. Louis uniform.

They came within three games of setting a franchise record for the most consecutive games without a stolen base earlier this year, going 33 games in a row without a steal, and since June 4, have stolen a combined five bases as a team in 55 games – with 13 caught stealing. Their season total of 39 steals in 115 games is only one more than the Cubs, but add in the fact that they have had 28 runners thrown out trying to steal, and their success rate of 58 percent is the lowest in the National League.

The last stolen bases they have had out of the leadoff spot in the order came on May 6. The team has a combined seven steals out of that spot, the lowest total in the league, and has had six runners caught stealing.

The individual leader on the team, Tyler Greene with nine steals, has spent almost as much time in Triple A as he has on the major league roster. Of the players on the current roster, Albert Pujols leads the team with six steals. There are 57 players in the NL with a higher total.

What in the name of Coleman and Lou Brock is going on here? A franchise which once stole 314 bases in a season, and had those two players top 100 by themselves, can’t steal more bases than this?

Coleman thinks part of the reason is that the art of stealing bases is not taught in the minor leagues, as it was in his day in the 1980s, and that baserunners in the major leagues do not study the pitchers as and his teammates did in the 1980s.

“If Don Blasingame had not been an instructor in the minor leagues I wouldn’t have learned how to read pitchers as well as I did,” said Coleman, who stole 549 bases in his six years as a Cardinal between 1985-1990. “I knew what to look for and passed that knowledge on to my teammates. Whitey (Herzog) gave us the freedom and the green light to run at will. 

“Every pitcher has a flaw, and I don’t think today they study that and see what the flaw is.”

Coleman disputes the notion that the development of a “quick-step” move by pitchers slowed down the running game in the majors. He said pitchers who try that generally fall behind in the count, and then have to change to try to throw strikes in order to not walk the next batter.

“It just meant I would steal on the third or fourth pitch instead of the first or second,” Coleman said.

The Cardinals have had successful teams which did not steal many bases in the past. The World Champion 2006 squad stole only 59 bases for the season, and the next year’s total fell to 56 – the fewest by any team managed by Tony La Russa in the last 33 years. This year’s team already is ahead of the franchise record for fewest steals in a season – a meager 17 by the 1949 Cardinals.

Despite their lack of steals, which also includes the inability of going from first to third base on a single to the outfield, the Cardinals still lead the NL in runs and hits. Just think how much better off they would be even if they were at least average in the baserunning department? Think they might have grounded into a fewer double plays if they had players who could steal second?

To their credit, the scouting and player development personnel identified speed as an area they would like to improve in this year’s draft. Three of their first 10 picks in the June draft were described as speedy, athletic outfielders with a chance to develop as basestealers.

In addition to the lack of speed on the major-league club, there are only seven players (eight if you add Tyler Greene’s major league and minor-league totals together) out of the close to 200 in the minor league system with more than 10 stolen bases this season. Tied for the organization lead through Saturday’s games were Memphis outfielder Adron Chambers and Johnson City outfielder Steven Ramos, each with 17 steals.

Coleman, who worked briefly as a base running instructor in the minor leagues for the Cubs after his playing career, believes if a player doesn’t learn how to steal bases in the minors he is not going to be able to do it successfully in the majors. 

The lack of players who have the ability to steal bases also makes it hard for Coleman to watch games these days.

“There is no one out there who excites me,” Coleman said. “When fans came to watch the Cardinals in the 1980s the one thing they knew they were going to see was stolen bases, if they didn’t see anything else.

“I patterned myself after Tim Raines and Rickey Henderson and Lou Brock. Those guys excited me when I watched them play and steal bases. I learned from watching guys like Joe Morgan when I was growing up. I don’t see that many complete ballplayers in baseball today. When we got on base it was exciting.”

As the Cardinals attempt to add more speed to their lineup, the question is where it will come from – with the two corner outfield spots, the two corner infield spots and the catcher position all unlikely sources – there are really only three choices, shortstop, second base and centerfield.

Newly acquired shortstop and leadoff hitter Rafael Furcal was supposed to add that dimension to the team, but he has not even attempted a stolen base in his first eight games as Cardinal. Jon Jay, now the regular centerfielder, has five steals but also has been thrown out four times. Now splitting time at second base, Skip Schumaker has no steals and two caught stealing, and Ryan Theriot has four steals and has been thrown out attempting to steal five times.

Head over to Rob Rains website to check out Rob’s thoughts on the National League Central race coming down to two teams and his notes on Major League and Minor League baseball.

On Wednesday the Cardinals completed a 3-game series against Arizona in the desert. St Louis won 2 of the three games. That in and of itself is not remarkable; as mentioned last week, the Cardinals have had reasonable success in Tucson. What is unusual is how many runs the team scored in those three games.

To recap – St Louis won the opener 8-2 behind the resurgent Kyle Lohse, lost 8-13 behind surprisingly shaky Chris Carpenter, then bludgeoned their way to a 15-5 win in support of a grateful Jake Westbrook. Thirty-one runs in the series, with at least 8 runs in every game. Talk about runs in bunches. More perspective: they had scored only 27 runs total in their first nine games.

That many runs in a series has to be a rarity, right? How often have the Cardinals done that? Well, more often than I initially thought, but less often than one might expect.

Looking back over the past 50 seasons, the Cardinals have scored 8 or more runs in three consecutive games against the same opponent 17 times.

In 1961, two of the three games were played as part of a double-header (on 17 July 1961). The third game of that set was the first game of a double-header played the next day – yes, on July 17 and 18 the Cardinals and Cubs played back-to-back double headers.

Note that over half of these 3-game sets have happened in the last 10 years. If one needed more proof offensive production has taken off in the recent history of the game, here it is. Additionally the Cardinals have turned this trick before in Arizona, ten years ago to the week.

What is unique about the recently completed series is the Cardinals did not win all three games during this offensive explosion. While not a rarity if the series is scheduled for longer than 3 games, it is a rarity for a three game set. The data presented here only goes back to 1961, however, I searched on Baseball Reference to see if St Louis had ever played a 3-game series in which they scored 8 or more runs in all three games and failed to win all three games. Baseball Reference carries game results back to 1919, and I looked at 2300+ games.

Never before had the Cardinals scored 8 or more runs in a 3-game series and not swept until the recently completed Arizona series.

I counted 36 series where they had scored 8 or more runs in 3 consecutive games on consecutive days against the same opponent through the 1926 season, when I stopped writing them down. In each instance where they lost on of the 3 games the series was at least 4 games long (and in 2 instances, 5 games).

A footnote to history, to be sure. However as a wise man once said, the great thing about baseball is you might see something today you’ve never seen before. We did not know it at the time, but during this mid-week series we all saw the Cardinals do something they had never done before.

Mike Metzger blogs about the Cardinals at Stan Musial’s Stance.

Six games?

That’s all Mike Aviles gets as a starter at third base? Six measly games?

Aviles, the fan favorite who has put together a couple of really nice seasons for the Royals at different positions on the infield, struggled at the plate and in the field through the opening homestand in 2011. In game 7, when the Royals traveled to Detroit for their first road trip of the year, Aviles was benched in favor of career journeyman Wilson Betemit.

Now, Aviles will probably be back as a starter, maybe even as soon as today. But to bench a guy for two consecutive games after only six is a little surprising. Let’s give this guy a chance to break out of the slump on his own.

The thing I love about Aviles is he doesn’t hold sacred any set routine when it comes to his approach at the plate. If he doesn’t like his stance, he’ll reposition his feet and take a few swings that way. If his bat doesn’t feel right, he’ll borrow one from somebody else. The other day he ditched his batting gloves and took a few at-bats George Brett style.

What this means is Aviles can tweak himself out of this slump. And I’m sure, given time, he will, and he’ll be the .299 hitter we all know and love.

As far as his defensive struggles go, those will work themselves out, too. He’s clearly not comfortable at third base. Which is fine – the position won’t be his for long anyway, since hotshot prospect Mike Moustakas is bound to be promoted to the majors by mid-season.

When that happens, Aviles will be in head-to-head competition with Chris Getz for the starting second base position. And with the way Getz is playing right now (which is to say terrifically), there’s no competition.

But who wants to bet that Getz will have better offensive stats than Aviles by the All Star Break?

I didn’t think so.

However, if Aviles stays on the bench and Getz continues to play passably…

Well, folks, we could be watching the end of Mike Aviles in a Royals uniform.

Maybe the humane thing to do would be to let him play every day until Moustakas arrives. By then, perhaps his stats will be good enough (and opposing general managers’ memories will be long enough) that the Royals can flip Aviles to a contender looking for middle infield help and a little offensive pop down the stretch.

Matt Kelsey is a Royals writer and associate editor for I-70 Baseball. He can be reached at mattkelsey14@yahoo.com.

The 2010 St. Louis Cardinals top three starters, Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, and Jaime Garcia, are comparable to the newly crowned champions of San Francisco. For that matter, they can also be considered as the best three in the league.

The leader of the pack and runner-up to Doc Halladay in this year’s Cy Young award is Adam Wainwright. Wainwright, who also finished third in last year’s vote, clearly looked like a pitcher on a mission to be the best starting pitcher in baseball this year. He reached the 20-win plateau and carries with him the reputation of having one of the best curveballs in the league. His best performance came on June 4^th against Milwaukee in a two-hit, eight strikeout shutout of the Brewers. Adam set a Major League record for consecutive games pitched at home going six innings or more while allowing three runs or less. His quality start streak ended at 28 games when he left after throwing five innings in a loss to the Reds in early September. Waino’s final numbers, his 20-11 record, 2.42 ERA, 213 K’s and 1.05 WHIP were all career best.

How would you like to have a pitching staff with two aces? Saying Chris Carpenter, the 2005 Cy Young award winner and last year’s runner-up is a number two pitcher is crazy. So, let’s call him 1A. Carpenter enjoyed a full season of health and started in 35 games in 2010. In some ways, the season felt like the same old Carp. His 16-9 record could have been better. He either received a loss or a no decision in eight quality starts and the team went 22-13 in his starts. His worst month was September as he lost four consecutive starts down the stretch. Carpenter finished with a 3.22 and walked more batters per nine innings (2.4) than ever has as a Cardinal. At times, Carpenter seemed like he struggled giving up the long ball but the 21 surrendered (0.8 HR/9) were in line with his career norm (0.9 HR/9). People were spoiled by his 2009 performance when he gave up only 7 dingers, which was an anomaly for Carp. Heading in to 2011 Wainwright and Carpenter form a one-two punch that any manager in the league would love to have.

The Redbirds third starter pitched like an ace as well in 2010. Jaime Garcia, 23, pitched his first full season in the majors and finished third in the Rookie of the Year voting, the highest of any Cardinal since Albert Pujols won the award in 2001. Coming off elbow surgery, Garcia logged 163 innings in 28 starts and finished fourth in the league in ERA at 2.70. Going into the end of June, Garcia was dominating and his ERA was even under 2.00. His best performance came on August 22 as he threw a three-hit shutout against the Giants. However, he seemed to be tiring a bit at the season’s close and was shut down with the Cardinals out of the race after three September starts. Although many would have liked to see Garcia pitch one or two more times and try to win the ROY award, LaRussa and his staff had his best interest at heart. Jaime has a bright future ahead and has definitely impressed in his debut season.

Early in the season the Cardinals seemed unstoppable. With Brad Penny throwing darts, the pitching staff’s one through four starters were on fire. Then, the middle of May came. Penny was shelled by the Reds, hurt his oblique while swinging a bat and was done for the year. In his nine starts Penny was chewing up innings and the Cardinals looked like they had all the pieces in place. Penny ended with a 3-4 record with a 3.23 ERA.

Continuing the disappointment, Kyle Lohse laid a big egg in 2010. He started out rough and landed on the DL with a never before heard of exertional compartment syndrome in his forearm. Lohse did return but was clearly still working out kinks and trying to get comfortable again. He finished the season with a gaudy 6.55 ERA and a 4-8 record in just 18 starts and 92 innings.

Due to the Cardinals injuries, Blake Hawksworth stepped out of the bullpen and into the rotation for eight turns. At first it seemed like Blake could be serviceable, turning in four decent starts from the end of June to the middle of July and picking up 3 wins. Yet, even through that stretch he became prone to the long ball and struggled with his control. He returned to the bullpen in August and finished out the year keeping his ERA around 4.00. As a starter, Hawksworth went 3-4 with a 5.83 ERA.

Another byproduct of Cardinal injuries was the return of the 2006 NLCS MVP Jeff Suppan. To some degree, Suppan regained his form under the tutelage of Dave Duncan in 15 starts with the Cardinals he went 3-6 with a 3.75 ERA.

The biggest surprise at the trade deadline came when the Cards dealt outfielder Ryan Ludwick to the Padres in a three-way deal that returned them starter Jake Westbrook. Westbrook did quite well for the Birds. In his twelve starts with the Cardinals, nine of them were quality starts. As a team, the Cardinals went 5-7 when Westbrook toed the rubber. Jake garnered four wins and four losses. His best start for the Cardinals came in his last as he went seven and two-thirds of an inning, and struck out nine Rockies while only surrendering four hits. Westbrook looked comfortable wearing the “Birds on the Bat” and the Cardinals are currently looking into resigning him.

The other six scrap starts for the year came from P.J. Walters and Adam Ottavino. P.J. did look good in his last start against a lowly Pirates squad only allowing four hits in seven innings but is not offering much hope that he will be able to pitch at the Major League level. In much the same way, Ottavino continues to disappoint fledgling through his three starts as well. He landed on the DL with a torn labrum in July and never returned during the year. He elected to rehab without surgery and should be ready for action next spring.

After the All Star Break, the Cardinals offense went on a tear, grabbing an eight-game winning streak, a feat the Cardinals had not accomplished since 2004, in the process. The club then followed up that party by being shut out in consecutive games for the first time since 1995.

THE SERIOUS QUESTION:

With all these ups and downs, slumps and streaks, just which Cardinal batters are consistently doing their part and pulling their weight?

TO MAKE IT MORE FUN:

Does size really matter?

This season was promoted to be a slugfest with Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday hitting back-to-back in the lineup. Both Pujols and Holliday are the stereotypical heavy hitter – big guys with massive arms (and big paychecks to boot.)

Then there are the not-so-much-power-hitter type batters. Aaron Miles is small, but has compiled an unexpectedly high batting average since joining the Cardinals two months ago. Brendan Ryan, the Cardinals shortstop who batted .292 last year, has been plagued by unforeseen slumps during the first half of the 2010 season. Brendan has seen his batting average plummet below the Mendoza line (.200) this season, and he was briefly batting below his weight (195 lbs) until Sunday’s game.

Batting your weight is a crucial minimum. Hitting below the Mendoza line is a hazard zone, labeling a player’s offensive production plain awful in Major League standards.

By figuring each player’s batting average based on their bodyweight, we get a look at “Points Per Pound”, or P3. The formula is simple: batting average (without the decimal) divided by weight in pounds.

So which Cardinals give the biggest bang for the hunk?

SETTING THE BAR:

Starting with the golden boys: Matt Holliday and Albert Pujols are surprisingly both hitting at exactly the same P3: 1.30. So the team comparisons began with that number.

Right from the start I was amazed to see a trend develop in this silly numerical adventure. Seven Cardinals batters are all hitting close to Holliday and Pujol’s P3 number of 1.30.

Ryan Ludwick at 1.25

Felipe Lopez gets a 1.31.

Colby Rasmus up a bit at 1.33.

Skip Schumaker hitting at 1.34.

David Freese (before being injured back in June) hit 1.35 P3.

NOT PULLING THEIR WEIGHT:

From there, the numbers began to creep a bit. Yadier Molina, carrying a little more body weight and not hitting quite so well lately, had a P3 number of 1.03 which is very close to lighter weight and Mendoza-flirt Brendan Ryan’s 1.01 P3 number. Nick Stavinoha, currently working his way back on a rehab stint in Memphis, was hitting a 1.06 before his injury. Poor Nick was doomed in this mathematical endeavor by being the heaviest Cardinal on the team. And Jason LaRue was our bottom dweller at 0.94 P3 number because, honestly, he is just not hitting – plus he outweighs Brendan by a dime.

THE OVERACHIEVERS:

Barely beating the P3 gold standard were skinny boys Randy Winn and Tyler Greene at 1.41 and 1.44 respectively. Aaron Miles at 5’8” got a mathematical boost from his smaller build, but his current .321 batting average also upped his overall 1.78 P3 number. However Jon Jay is the shining star, by a landslide. Jay’s P3 number is 1.94, a 50% improvement over Holliday and Pujols’ gold standard.

For those of you who, like me, love to see the big picture:

Of course, the players’ weights listed on the team website may not be as current as the batting averages from July 26th on BaseballReference.com, but I doubt the scientific validity of my “Bang per Hunk” theory will ever be considered legitimate. Nevertheless, in a sport such as baseball that gives us statistics for just about every concept imaginable, sometimes the numbers are just fun to explore.

Could a player such as Albert Pujols with a steady career batting average increase it further by packing on the pounds? I guess the steroid era may have already proven that theory. But it does makes me wonder: Perhaps Brendan Ryan should eat more ice cream in his struggle to break past that pesky Mendoza line?

One more startling revelation: I would only have to bat .150 to get the same P3 number as Holliday and Pujols. Maybe I need an agent? Someone call Scott Boras- I will be working on my swing!

Erika Lynn writes about the Cardinals for i70baseball.com, BaseballDigest.com and at the Cardinal Diamond Diaries blog. You may follow her on Twitter at username @Erika4stlcards or follow Cardinal Diamond Diaries on Twitter here.