The Cardinals leave out of Pittsburgh with essentially a split series due to the rain out of Tuesday evening, and also with a series that’s a tale of two halves. After an offensive eruption in game one, which they won 10-6 on Monday, they could barely find their way into the hit column two days later, dropping the final game of the series 5-0 to AJ Burnett. Now, as they depart to see the other Pennsylvania based team in the second leg of their current 10 game road swing, they’ve got nowhere to look but up. Here’s what to take from the Pittsburgh series, which was a revelation of some challenges that are remediable, but are becoming problems quickly.

1.Runs Parched: Last season, when the Cardinals were on, they were on. But when they were off, it was an ugly thing to see. The offense would turn off completely, and there would be no chance of scoring it would seem, only to then erupt to be able to produce runs seemingly at will. The rollercoaster hasn’t been too wide thus far this season, with them averaging 5.6 runs per game, good for third in the National League. Yet, the team’s average is still struggling (.248, good for 20^th in the NL), and they are truly living in the moment to produce runs.

The shutout suffered on Wednesday was the club’s second on the season. Burnett took a no-hitter into the seventh inning before Carlos Beltran broke it up. Despite that, they still couldn’t manage to get any runs on the board, and not counting the rained out game on Tuesday, have officially not scored in the last 15 innings. With Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay awaiting, getting out of that funk in this series would have been timely.

2. Free Joe Kelly: Kelly made a rare appearance in Monday’s game, throwing two scoreless innings, while surrendering one hit. He had not pitched since April 7^th versus the Giants, and missed the entire home stand. Kelly made the team partially out of necessity due to the Jason Motte injury changing the bullpen’s capacity, but also due to the flexibility he displayed after moving to the pen late last year and throughout the playoffs. While it is good to have him available, this is still a 24-year-old that is a starter by trait. Finding more opportunities for him to work is essential, because if they are only going to present themselves once a week, he would potentially be better used in Memphis.

3. Warrior without a clue: Lance Lynn has been the definition of a workhorse this season…but one that leaves early every day. In his three starts on the season, he has pitched a total of 15 innings, and has thrown a whopping total of 294 pitches already. That is an awful lot of work for a starts that are reaching to hit the middle point of a ballgame. Although his record is 2-0, the numbers outside of it belie what is really at work for his season. His other read outs look are seven walks against 17 strikeouts, better than one hit per inning surrendered, good for a 1.60 WHIP, contributing to a 5.40 ERA.

The problem with Lynn’s efficiency is approach. While the stuff is good, he does not miss many bats or throw in places conducive to strikes (i.e. the off the plate). Also, due to heavy volume he throws in, he wears down very early in the game and virtually guarantees his starts to be heavy bullpen games. He has once again benefit from a heavy amount of run support (8 runs per game), which makes the bad inning not look as bad, because from a certain perspective, it’s not burying the team. But a pitcher should be able to win games, not just benefit from his environment, and the telling stat is what batters are doing to him the second time around. Batters are managing a whopping .433 average on his 31^st through 60^th pitches, which is usually his second and final time seeing a lineup. Roughly speaking, he’s average one time through, and horrible the next. In order to thrive (or potentially even survive) as a starter, Lynn has to become more deceptive and make location his friend, because the reliever-turned-starter approach he’s taking now is not going to cut it.

Adam Wainwright made his first “start” in what could be a year full of both starts and stops. Of course he’s still over a month away from his first meaningful appearance of the year, but these days, not much he says or does is without meaning.

With the high stakes nature of his ongoing contract negotiations hanging over his 6’7” frame, the comparison machine is going crazy in a wild attempt to get a grasp on what a long-term extension for the Cardinals’ ace would look like. Would it be a rather short-term, balanced money deal in the nature of the one Yadier Molina received last spring? Or would it be an extensive, full career (and then some) style deal, such as the one Albert Pujols ultimately received…elsewhere?

The expectation that the pact would be the largest team history isn’t a far fetched idea. In reality, it’s very much a fact. And the best comparison possible is one that is drawn from the terms that the current holder of that distinction agreed to: Matt Holliday.

Holliday turned 29 just days before signing his seven-year, $120 million deal back in 2009. This is was a mid prime deal for him that also would carry him likely through the remainder of his career. It also became the winter’s biggest deal, despite him likely passing on more lucrative offers from the New York Yankees or Boston Red Sox. It also came during a time when there was rapid contract growth around him, with Jason Bay, Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez all recently receiving long-term deals.

This is nearly the exact scenario that Wainwright is placed in right now. He is 31 years old right now, and would be 32 by the end of the year. Yet, the starting pitching position is the middle of a massive salary push, with large scale deals going out to Matt Cain, Cole Hamels, Zack Greinke and Felix Hernandez over the past year. If he was to hit the free agent market, he would instantly become among the most sought after free agents available. He stacks up very well in a class that features Matt Garza, Josh Johnson and Tim Lincecum, each of which will also be over 30 years old by the winter. Basically, Wainwright is running out of contractual obligation at a perfect time for his causes.

But what does the organization have to consider? There is much to be considered in how the team has approached its recent dealing, but also many parallels to pull away as well. The differences from the Pujols deal are numerous. In Pujols’ case, he had been playing a far lower rate than his performance would indicate for many years. And while he entered the market a similar age, his value took on historic connotation, not a superb prime for a top-tier performer, which is what Wainwright is, much like Holliday was. In the case of Molina, he took a shorter term extension, which will carry him into his late 30’s. Yet he still didn’t push for every dollar that he could have on the open market, and likely would have earned if he waited a few months.

The differences between the Pujols and Molina deals are clear, but there some similarities as well. All indications are leaning towards Wainwright wants a guarantee on the length of the deal, which was something they balked at with Pujols. The Cardinals have taken a pretty strong stance against signing over the low-to-late 30’s bridge. It was a balk in their offer to Pujols, and both Molina and Holliday’s deals would expire at ages 35 and 37, respectively. If Wainwright is seeking a deal that is comparable in length to either Cain or Hamels, the balance in length would be six years. This would carry him to his 38^th birthday, and most likely into a scenario where is paid past his prime and into his decline years. The ability to avoid doing this; and have been able to sign many players to their exact prime years and escaping the decline as it approaches. This is a primary factor for what has kept the small market Cardinals with the ability to field the financially flexible roster it has for so many years.

It doesn’t seem that Wainwright would push to hamstring the financial competitiveness of the team, but he has acknowledged that a lowered value deal isn’t likely. In comparison to his last deal he signed at age 26, his focus has changed, “I’m in a different place from last deal. My family is set up, and I’m looking at different things,” he stated last month regarding his desires for this contract. These are the words of a man that is looking towards the future, his own.

And as always, the organization will do what’s best for its future as well, financially and competitively. Both sides will be forced to concede a portion of their absolute interests to find a deal here. While the Cardinals have proven to be resistant to extreme concession (as the Pujols dealings showed), and prefer shorter term commitment (as they proved with Molina) they also have shown that when the situation requires it, as proved with Holliday, they will throw caution to the wind and compete over the long term.

The unofficial second half began Friday as the St. Louis Cardinals got back into action following the All Star Break. But trade season is also officially underway, and the Cards are looking to improve so they can make another run at the postseason.

Lance Berkman is due to come off the disabled list this weekend while the team is in Cincinnati, making the lineup and bench whole for the first time in months. Obviously, upgrading the pitching staff is now the most logical move for the Cardinals—especially in the wake of losing both Chris Carpenter and Kyle McClellan for the season, and having no idea when they’ll see Jaime Garcia again. The debate on who to go after could be endless: Top of the rotation guy? Innings-eater? Closer? LOOGY? Middle reliever? All of the above? Regardless, you have to give up something to get something as the old saying goes. And the Cards have some depth. They have guys they can deal.

This list is by no means easy to compile. And the number of players going each way is a huge factor. John Mozeliak may end up packaging one group of players to acquire another group of players like he did for the Colby Rasmus trade in 2011, or he could do a one-for-one swap. So I’m compiling a list, and it is by no means comprehensive. But since the Cards need to add to their pitching staff, I’m going to avoid designating pitchers on the active roster as “expendable”—even though a guy like Fernando Salas seems to be as far from “untouchable” as a reliever can get. And if they had a better relief option in the minors, that guy would be up…he wouldn’t be trade bait either. Are there better starters than Jake Westbrook out there? Of course. But anyone who thinks the Cards are going to be able to trade him for Cole Hamels is quite obviously hoarding all the good drugs.

So we’ll focus on position players, and pitchers not currently on the 25-man roster. I think you might know who I’m talking about. Again, there might be 50 players in the entire organization the Cards could do without, but players off the 40-man roster without name recognition—or players on it with no real upside—aren’t likely to bring much of a return. Anyway…my list:

Tyler Greene (2B, SS) – Shocking his name would pop up on this list, eh? Greene has been given every opportunity to stick with the big club. At first, we all thought it was nerves playing for Tony La Russa. Well, La Russa is gone. And the Cards are getting the same old, same old from Greene. One concession: he’s never gotten a legitimate chance as a shortstop, his natural position. Perhaps that’s the best reason of all to trade him. His value may not be much, but packaging him could help yield the Cards a player who can be consistently productive…something they probably will never see from Tyler Greene.

Shane Robinson (OF) – Sugar Shane has done everything asked of him: start, come off the bench, pinch hit, pinch run, you name it. He may never be a great player, but he is a good player and could have a role with any club as a fourth outfielder. Unfortunately, the Cardinals have like three other guys that can fill that role right now. Robinson is the classic odd man out, and he may benefit from more time in AAA. But he still retains some upside for any club, and would be a good addition to a package deal for an impact arm.

Matt Adams (1B) – He’s the Brett Wallace of 2012, except Adams can actually move. He’s blocked six ways from Sunday at 1st base, and that happens to be the only position he can play. If the Cards don’t have Carlos Beltran next year, I think Adams’ value is a little higher because Allen Craig would likely be needed in right field. He may anyway after Beltran leaves. But at this point, Adams’ trade value is pretty high, and may not get much higher.

Bryan Anderson (C) or Steven Hill (C) – The Cardinals are good behind the plate. Yadier Molina is obviously here to stay, and Tony Cruz is more than capable as a backup. And if he isn’t, backup catchers aren’t real tough to find. Anderson has never developed into what some thought he could be, and Hill is just a tic ahead of him offensively. Neither has a ton of value alone, but a team looking for catching depth may be interested in one of them as part of a package.

Brandon Dickson (RHP) – Dickson has some experience at the big league level and has some upside. Where he projects in a given rotation is anyone’s guess, but pitching is always at a premium and the Cardinals have enough organizational depth to dangle Dickson for a team looking for a young arm.

Shelby Miller (RHP) – This one is tough to swallow. Miller has been perceived as untouchable since he was drafted in 2009. And his struggles in 2012 are no reason to give up on him. But again—in order to get something, you have to give up something. The real, logical reasons Miller can be deemed expendable are: A) the emergence of Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly as viable rotation options, and B) the depth behind Miller in Carlos Martinez, Trevor Rosenthal, and John Gast (among others). Trading Miller is not a must—the Cardinals could do a lot worse than holding on to him—but in terms of upside and ceiling equating to trade value, Miller may be the best chip the Cardinals currently hold.

Again, this list is far from complete. If they go after a second baseman, for instance, maybe Daniel Descalso becomes expendable. But aside from the unlikely hypotheticals, the Cards have pieces to move and they have the motivation to once again win now. That should equal an intriguing trade season for the defending World Champs.

Chris Reed also writes for InsideSTL Mondays and Bird Brained whenever he feels like it. Follow him on Twitter @Birdbrained.

So far, 2012 is a disappointing season for the Kansas City Royals. Marred by injuries, a mediocre at best starting rotation and the sophomore slump of first baseman Eric Hosmer, the Royals are 37-47 and 9.5 games behind the Chicago White Sox. In an uphill struggle, the Royals are stuck in neutral and rolling back down the hill.

The Royals are getting outfielder Lorenzo Cain and infielder Chris Getz back from the disabled list. But Cain and Getz will not provide the dramatic turnaround the team needs to contend in a weak American League Central. What the Royals need is to get players via trades. But how the Royals play the next couple of weeks will determine if the Royals are buyers, sellers or window shoppers.

Buyers: If the Royals go 2-8 in the next ten games like they did in the previous ten games, they won’t be buyers until the off-season. And unless General Dayton Moore is willing to give up top prospects for starting pitching, the Royals won’t be buyers. Yes, it would be nice to think the Royals would have a chance with a Matt Garza, Cole Hamels or Zack Greinke. But at 9.5 games out and Moore’s aversion to trading prized prospects, this is a pipe dream. And would Moore trade for a front-line starter even if the Royals were in a tight A.L. Central race? I get the feeling he would say “trust the process,” and stand pat.

If the Royals go on a 8-2 run and play well the rest of the month, they might go for a Shaun Marcum, Jeremy Guthrie or Jason Vargas. But it’s likely the Royals will wait until the off-season to get a starting pitcher through free agency or a trade.

Sellers: This is the likely scenario for the Royals, a path the team has traveled too many times. The trade rumors for closer Jonathan Broxton are warming up and the trade rumors of outfielder Jeff Franceour will intensify as the trade deadline approaches.

In Broxton’s case, teams like the New York Mets need bullpen help and he might fit the bill. I wonder if the Mets would trade starter R.A. Dickey straight up Broxton? It’s doubtful, but it would be cool for the Royals to have a Dickey on the team. If the Mets aren’t interested, perhaps another team will show interest in Broxton.

Another player likely to be traded is Franceour, but don’t underestimate the love Moore has for Frenchy. Franceour’s defense is above average, but his offense has slipped from his numbers last year. And if you think we’re getting top tier prospects for Franceour, keep dreaming. But some low to mid-level prospects or a league replacement level player or two would be a fair trade.

Last month, I wrote an argument for keeping Franceour. But Wil Myers is close to Major League ready and if some other general manager gets the love jones Moore has for Franceour and gives up good players, the Royals have to trade him.

Then there’s outside trade candidates like infielder Yuni Betanourt and starter Bruce Chen. Yes, I said Yuni. Offensively, he had a great June and if Betancourt keeps it up, some team desperate for a utility infielder with some pop might be willing to trade. If that’s the case, Yuni needs to go.

As for Chen, he’s a dependable pitcher who can help out a contending team. The Royals shouldn’t give Chen away, but if the team can get some value, he needs to be traded. Chen’s exit would make way for Jake Odorizzi to join the Royals rotation and get a jump on 2013.

Window shoppers: This is an unlikely scenario, but it’s possible. The Royals wouldn’t get anyone in a trade and keep Broxton, Franceour, Chen and Betancourt. The team would shuttle starters like Nathan Adcock and Everett Teaford back and forth between Kansas City and Omaha. They might call up Myers and Odorizzi and whomever they replace will go to the bench, to AAA Omaha or be designated for assignment.

This scenario could happen if the Royals keep playing like they are or if the team doesn’t get the players they want via trades. They would play out the season and wait for 2013.

The reality is the second half of the 2012 season is shaping up like the second half of previous seasons. Middling to mediocre baseball, young players finding or losing their way in the Majors and a few bright spots in an otherwise dull campaign.

Will this ever change? I hope it does. I was heartened by the cheers fans gave Billy Butler during the All-Star Game. And when fans booed Yankees infielder Robinson Cano for not including Butler in the Home Run Derby, it showed fans still care for the Royals and they desperately want the team to win. Let’s hope the enthusiasm the fans had for Butler will carry over to the rest of the team. But the Royals have to play better baseball if they want to salvage the 2012 season.

Currently, the Kansas City Royals sit at 29-35 and 5 games out of 1st place in the American League Central. If they can continue streaking, could they actually become buyers at the trade deadline?

Royals fans are all too used to the same story at the trade deadline every year. Let’s see what assets we have that other contending teams might want and see if we can turn those into anything useful for the future. Is it possible, that with the way the Royals have played since ending their 12 game losing streak in April, that they could actually become buyers at the deadline this year? One can only hope. And barring any injuries to position players, the primary need will be Starting Pitching. So as we sit about 6 weeks away from the trade deadline, let’s examine what starting pitchers might be available for the Royals to pursue.

Cole Hamels (Phillies)-The Philadelphia Phillies are currently 9 games out of first place in the National League East. Hamels is a free agent after this season, and all signs point to the Phils not being able to re-sign him. Assuming they don’t agree to an extension before the deadline, and that the Phillies don’t right the ship, you can bet they will be listening to offers.

Zack Greinke (Brewers)-Same situation as above. Milwaukee is 8.5 games out of first place, Greinke is a free agent, and the chances of the Brewers re-signing him are very slim. If they don’t right their own ship, they will be looking to trade him for a similar package of prospects that they traded away to get him from the Royals.

Shaun Marcum (Brewers)-Again, if the Brewers aren’t in contention, they will be looking to move Marcum, who is also a free agent at the end of 2012 and a Kansas City native as well.

Brandon McCarthy (Athletics)-McCarthy is having another very solid season, and will be a free agent after this season. And the Oakland Athletics are going nowhere in 2012, so it would be shocking to see him finish the season in an A’s uniform.

Francisco Liriano (Twins)-While it is not likely the Minnesota Twins would be willing to trade Liriano to a division rival like the Royals, he is also the guy on this list that would command the least in return. There is no denying his ability, so he would be worth a gamble for the Royals or another team in need of starting pitching for the stretch run.

Wandy Rodriguez (Astros)-The Astros are trying to rebuild, and though Rodriguez is signed through 2013, they don’t figure to be contending until after that. So he will likely be made available at this year’s deadline. The left-hander would be a solid addition to the Royals staff not only this year, but next year as well if they could land him.

Ryan Dempster (Cubs)-Dempster has pitched very well this season, but the Chicago Cubs are the worst team in baseball and Dempster will be a free agent after the 2012 season. It is highly unlikely the rebuilding Cubs would be willing to invest in a multi-year deal with the 35 year-old Dempster, so he is bound to be made available.

Matt Garza (Cubs)-Garza will be arbitration-eligible after this season, and a free agent after the 2013 season. Like the Astros, the Cubs don’t figure to be competitive until long after 2013, so they might as well move him while he has value.

So as you can see, there should be no shortage of capable starting pitchers available at the deadline. And the Royals have no shortage of desirable prospects to deal away. It would sure be nice to have the shoe on the other foot for a change.

You can debate whether Justin Verlander should be win the “best player in the league” award. There was no debate on if he’d win the “best pitcher” version.

This season has been anything but smooth for the Cardinals and their fanbase. An up and down, rollercoaster of a ride has seen fans start thinking towards 2012 and the team exploring options to trade some potential free agents, only to realize the Braves were falling apart and the team might be able to salvage something in 2011.

The season's hopes are on the shoulders of EJax

The playoffs, or the three games that represent the playoffs to this point, seem to have taken that idea to the next level. The Cardinals had Roy Halladay on the ropes and the fans were excited to see that their team was, in fact, worthy of being in the playoffs. A few innings later, however, the team would show a weakness to pull through and see the victory all the way through and ended up being blown out in the first game. The blowout seemed to confirm to most fans that the team was overmatched and that the Phillies truly were the powerhouse. The road was not going to get any easier, either, as Cliff Lee still had to pitch before they could leave Philadelphia.

Game two rolled around and the Cardinals worked hard against Lee, taking his pitch count high early on and scraping out a few runs. The bullpen, used in a match up environment despite an early exit by the starter, would pin down a solid victory. Fans were back on the bandwagon seeing that the team could hang tough, compete hard, gain a victory against a top of the line starter, and band together for a win. The series was shifting to St. Louis and the fans were clamoring about a potential National League Championship Series appearance.

Game three had the potential to be one of two things: a great performance for the team or an extreme statement by Philadelphia. It turned out to be a bit of both but ultimately, simply a let down for the Cardinals. Behind a strong start by Jaime Garcia, the Cardinals kept Cole Hamels on the ropes throughout the entire game. The problem this time around was lack of follow through. Why Hamels labored and constantly found himself in a threatening position, he did what any ace pitcher would do and worked his way out of it. The Cardinals failed to drive the point home with the youngest of the “Four Aces” on the mound and found themselves in trouble when Garcia left a pitch up and surrendered a pinch-hit, three run home run. Much like the season, the Cardinals would not let this go down without a fight, and scraped together a few runs of their own. As happened often in 2011, the team found themselves coming up just short.

This has been one of the most heartbreaking and exciting versions of the Cardinals to watch. If there is one thing this team has earned from the fans, it would be the support knowing that they just will not give up. On Wednesday evening, the team will take to the Busch Stadium field facing yet another elimination game. They hand the ball to Edwin Jackson and ask him to keep hope alive. They face a familiar foe in Roy Oswalt and will look to use that to their advantage.

Win or lose, they will go down with a fight. Fans deserve a team that leaves it all on the field. This team deserves fans that will get behind them and fight with them. This is the highs and lows of baseball. The fans may be rewarded with one more game in Philadelphia. The fans may be let down and left feeling like it was not enough.

Who says you cannot be romantic about this game?

Now that the euphoria has subsided a little bit, it is time to take a look at the next team standing in St Louis’ way, the Philadelphia Phillies.

Philadelphia finished the regular season with the best record in baseball. Their vaunted starting rotation performed as advertised, more than making up for their average offense. They are the odds-on favorite not only to win the National League, but the World Series. Let us take a closer look.

St Louis will face Roy Halladay (19-6, 2.35 ERA, 2.71 xFIP, 220 K), Cole Hamels (14-9, 2.79 ERA, 3.02 xFIP, 194 K), and Cliff Lee (17-8, 2.40 ERA, 2.68 xFIP, 238K) in the LDS. The best part of this rotation is the Cardinals faced Halladay and Hamels, and beat both, barely 2 weeks ago in Philly. The other starter, Lee , has faced St Louis twice this season. The Cardinals beat him in May, with Lee returning the favor in June. So their top three, who were a combined 50-25 this season, have all suffered a loss at the hands of these Cardinals this season. They’re good, but the Cardinals know they can defeat these three.

St Louis will counter with Kyle Lohse, Edwin Jackson, Chris Carpenter, and Jamie Garcia for Game 4. Lohse (14-8, 3.39 ERA, 3.31 xFIP, 111K) beat Halladay on 19 September. That victory was his first over Philadelphia since 2008 and snapped a 3-game personal losing streak against the Phillies. Lohse has been the best Cardinal starter during their September surge. Jackson (5-2, 3.58 ERA, 4.03 xFIP, 51K) gets a much deserved playoff start. He has allowed 3 or fewer runs in all but two of his starts since joining the Cardinals. Chris Carpenter (11-9, 3.45 ERA, 3.31 xFIP, 191K) pitched St Louis to the playoffs with a dominating start against Houston, but the price is his unavailability until Game 3. In 19 starts since June 23 he is 10-2 with a 2.73 ERA.

The Cardinals are not grossly outclassed, but the statistically the Philly starters are better. Starting pitching advantage: Philadephia.

Statistically Philadelphia’s bullpen was better than St Louis’, but with a difference of less than 1 fWAR it is a minor difference. Philadelphia’s best 2 relievers are Ryan Madson (currently the closer) and Antonio Bastardo. Bastardo was pretty close to lights out for the first 2/3 of the season, but has faded noticeably down the stretch. Their bullpen will be bolstered with the presence of starters Roy Oswalt (although he could start Game 4) and Vance Worley. Michael Stutes has also seen significant work out of the Phillies bullpen.

St Louis remade their bullpen in the Colby Rasmus trade, and have turned a liability into a strength. Jason Motte comes in for high leverage situations late in games but is not the ‘closer’ per se. Kyle McClellan, Octavio Dotel, Mark ‘Scrabble’ Rzepczynski, and Arthur Rhodes will all see action out of the bullpen. This bullpen blew 2 of the last 7 games this season, but without them the Cardinals don’t close on a 23-8 tear.

Cardinal bullpen improvement since the trade deadline makes this a dead heat. Bullpen advantage: Even.

Offensively, Philadelphia boasts a formidable lineup of aging stars. Only trade deadline acquisition Hunter Pence is under 30. Still, one takes Philadelphia lightly at their own peril. They were the sixth best offense in the NL (12th overall) this season, again by fWAR. Shane Victorino had a career year hitting mostly out of the leadoff or #2 slot. St Louis’ ability to keep him in check will be a key to winning this series. Pence, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Jimmie Rollins, and Carlos Ruiz all posted wRC+ of 106 or better. They are capable of scoring a lot of runs, but they don’t need to with the starting pitching they have.

The Cardinals field the most potent offense in the National League, anchored by Albert Pujols and the resurgent Lance Berkman. However this offense will not be the one Philadelphia saw two weeks ago. Matt Holliday is hurting, his status uncertain; he was to receive a cortisone shot for his ailing right hand. Rafael Furcal, a catalyst who hit 7 home runs after coming to St Louis, is probably out for the year with a hamstring injury. That’s the bad news. The good news is Allen Craig has stepped into Holliday’s shoes and capably replaced him, hitting .303/.329/.606 since August 25. St Louis will probably platoon at short, with Nick Punto, Ryan Theriot, and Tyler Greene seeing some time. Furcal’s defense was shaky down the stretch, so there won’t be a large drop off there, but there will be a big offensive drop.

Even without Holliday this lineup has not lost a beat. Offensive Advantage: St Louis.

Defense is the Phillie Achilles heel. Using Bill James’ Team Runs Saved as the metric, Philadelphia had the third-worst defense in the NL this season, grading below average at pitcher, catcher, first, left, and right, and exactly average at short. St Louis’ defense was below league average, but graded out 3 spots higher than Philadelphia. Their weakest positions are (worst to best) short, catcher, third, and second. The Cardinals were exactly average at first.

So basically the Phillies have the better infield, and the Cardinals have a better outfield. Defensive Advantage: Even.

Summary and Prediction

Does good pitching stop good hitting or good hitting stop good pitching? This series will be a case study. Good hitting stopped good pitching back in mid-September, but that series did not have the pressure this one will. Sure, the pressure was there for the Cardinals, but not for Philadelphia; they came in with a magic number of 1 and clinched with their lone win. Philadelphia will play at a higher level starting Saturday then they did back then.

That’s not to say the Cardinals should not bother to show up. There is no more confident team in the NL than St Louis as this post-season starts. They were all but eliminated from the post-season 5 weeks ago, yet here they are. The team is playing with house money and they know it. All the pressure in this series resides in the dugout and clubhouse of the team anointed as World Champions before spring training started. If any team can upset the Phillies, it is the Cardinals.

So long as Halladay does not no-hit them tomorrow. Cardinals in 4.

Mike Metzger is a life-long Cardinals fan currently based in San Diego. He blogs about the San Diego Padres, and you can follow him @metzgermg

Philadelphia has four outstanding pitchers forming the core of their 2011 rotation – can the Cardinals quartet compete?

Most prognosticators have already ceded the Philadelphia Phillies the NL East, NL Pennant, and World Series Championship in 2011. This is based on the team being able to send a formidable foursome of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt, and Cole Hamels to the hill on a recurring basis. No other team, as the logic goes, can match that rotation for quality and depth.

Well, perhaps Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Madison Baumgarner, and Jonathan Sanchez. But let’s not sell Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Jake Westbrook, and Jamie Garcia short – they can pitch too. How close are these Cardinal hurlers to the new National League gold standard?

Looking at Wins Above Replacement for each pitcher over the past three years, one is amazed at how durable the Phillie starters are. Consider:

• Roy Halladay WAR (2010-2008): 6.8, 6.6, 7.3
• Cliff Lee WAR : 6.7, 7.1, 6.6
• Roy Oswalt WAR: 4.2, 4.7, 3.0
• Cole Hamels WAR: 4.2, 3.8, 3.6

Now compare that to the Cardinal starters over the same period.

• Chris Carpenter WAR (2010-2008): 3.7, 5.6, 0.4
• Adam Wainwright: 6.7, 6.1, 5.7
• Jake Westbrook: 2.3, missed all of 2009, 0.4
• Jamie Garcia, 3.2 (rookie season).

Wainwright is as good as any pitcher in the league, and was every bit as good as both Halladay and Lee in 2010. After him there is a significant drop-off. Carpenter was hurt in 2008, Westbrook missed most of 2008 and all of 2009 to injury, and Garcia just completed his first full season in the bigs (after missing 2009 to arm surgery). And let’s not get into Kyle Lohse’s injury history since his bit 2008 season.

Carpenter is certainly still capable of putting up another season close to his 2009 effort, but will probably be in the 3.7-4.2 WAR region for 2011. He is a warrior, but he will also turn 36 next season and has a lot of miles on his right arm (not to mention injuries). Garcia will improve in his second season and will probably be close to Carpenter, perhaps 3.5-4.0 WAR. Westbrook is 33; his best years were 2004-2006, and his best WAR was 4.5 (2006). If he is able to stay healthy all season, he’s probably a Carpenter-level guy (3.7-4.2 WAR). Wainwright will remain one of the best pitchers in the league (6.4-7.2 WAR).

Figure Halladay and Lee to post between 6.3-7.0 WAR, and Oswalt/Hamels to post similar numbers (somewhere in the 4.0-4.7 range).

What does it all mean? It means pitching-wise, this team is still good enough to win the NL Central and make a run in the post-season. It means Cardinal pitchers are pretty good too – perhaps not quite as vaunted a rotation as the Phillies have, but certainly good enough to win 90+ games.

Granted, should they make it to the NLCS, having to face Halladay, Lee, and Oswalt twice each in a 7-game series is a tough task. If the 2006 post-season taught us anything, however, it’s that the playoffs are a crapshoot. In 2010, that lesson was reinforced – who seriously thought the Giants would beat Cliff Lee twice in the World Series?

So let’s not mail Ruben Amaro Jr the National League pennant for 2011 just yet. There’s a pretty good staff working alongside the banks of the Mississippi too.

It certainly doesn’t appear as if they’re building for the future. The two men who’ve been the co-faces of the franchise for more than a decade, Albert Pujols and Tony La Russa, both have contracts that expire at the end of the season, and it looks to be no better than a 50-50 chance that either will be back with the club in 2012. The organization’s three newest pieces, Lance Berkman, Ryan Theriot, and Gerald Laird, have all been signed to one-year contracts. The team has given up on one of the best defensive shortstops in the game, trading a relatively young Brendan Ryan (28 years old) to Seattle. They also regularly float rumors about trading up-and-coming outfielder Colby Rasmus, who’s been in Tony La Russa’s doghouse for the better part of his time in St. Louis. Chris Carpenter is getting up there in age (35), Yadier Molina will be due a pay-raise soon, and with recent revolving doors at second and third base, the only members of the Cardinals who look to be locked in for the long-run are Adam Wainwright and Matt Holliday. All signs point towards a “win now” mentality, and the potential for a complete roster and coaching overhaul could be forthcoming in 2012 and beyond.

Of course, there’s a little problem with “winning now”: The Philadelphia Phillies.

With the recent addition of Cliff Lee, the Phillies now have an absurdly talented starting rotation. Lee, the 2008 Cy Young Award winner, joins forces with two-time and reigning Cy Young Award Winner Roy Halladay, former Astro’s ace Roy Oswalt, and the Phillies’ other ace (who’s now probably the team’s fourth best option), Cole Hamels. Words cannot adequately describe the team’s potential, which is still anchored by a solid lineup of Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, and Shane Victorino, but I can tell you this much:

1) The Phillies are getting 5 to 1 odds to win the World Series (tops in the National League), and 2) I would not want to be in a fantasy baseball league with Phillies General Manager, Ruben Amaro.

Of course, anything can happen in baseball. It’s not as if the Cardinals can’t compete with the Phillies. You might recall the Cardinals have four pretty good starters as well: Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Jake Westbrook, and Jaime Garcia. Pujols, Holliday, and Berkman make for a daunting 3-4-5 in the heart of the lineup.

But is it enough?

The Phillies were this close to returning to the World Series for a 3^rd straight year in 2010 and decided to go out and pay Cliff Lee $124 million. The organization also locked in Ryan Howard for 5 years, $125 million over the summer. The Cardinals, on the other hand, haven’t even extended Albert Pujols’ contract.

So that brings us back to the original question: “What is the 2011 Cardinals team playing for?” The Cardinals have several key contracts up at the end of the year. With that in mind, wouldn’t the team want to do everything it can to fill the holes at short, second, possibly at third, and on the bench? Is the team really going to let Skip Schumaker and Ryan Theriot set the table for Pujols, Holliday, and Berkman all year?

One thing’s for sure, they are not building for the future. But do they really have a chance to win now?