Tag Archive | "Clutch"
Posted on 15 April 2013. Tags: Birds Cardinals, Boggs, Bullpen, Carlos Beltran, Clutch, Consecutive Series, Face Value, Flip Side, Foe, Gallardo, Game Road, Milwaukee Brewers, National League Central, Nl Central, Road Stretch, Seven Runs, Smooth Ride, Sole Possession, Torches, Yovani Gallardo
The Cardinals won their third consecutive series over the weekend, and second consecutive against a division foe, by taking down the Milwaukee Brewers. In a series that was consistently spectacular early, yet ended in a manner that’s becoming quickly familiar in a not so positive way, the Cardinals finished their first home stand with a 4-2 record, and in sole possession of first place in the NL Central. While it was (nearly) a completely smooth ride, here are three things to pull away from the series, as the club heads out to tough 10 game road stretch.

1 .Big Inning Birds: The Cardinals are living, and dying, by the big inning thus far. When it works in their favor, it’s been potent. On Saturday, the Cardinals exploded for seven runs in an inning to put down Brewers ace Yovani Gallardo. This marked the fourth time in a week that the team topped at least four runs in an inning to put itself ahead for good. This has been by and large the way that the offense has worked, as it has hit a MLB-best .400 with runners in scoring position. However, the lineup has struggled to produce otherwise, has the team’s average falls to .208 with no runners on, 13th best in the National League.
What does this say? Considering they are winners of their previous three series and atop the National League Central, at face value, not much. However, digging deeper it is clear that this trend cannot keep up. The team has to start producing more steadily. This can be achieved by getting Jon Jay going better at the top of the lineup (.245 average) and Allen Craig and Carlos Beltran (both at .222) getting more sporadic hits, over just clutch production.
On the flip side, the bullpen is becoming prone to the big inning as well. Mitchell Boggs blew his first save of the season on Sunday, while watching his ERA rise to 9.95. He split his save chances in the series, and didn’t make easy work of the one that went over. Torches are beginning to spread for his head amongst the town people. Overall on the season, the bullpen is sporting an NL-worst 6.09 ERA, along with three losses and supporting a .278 batting average against. While it is early, it’s never too soon to figure out how to stop a leak before it sinks the boat.
2. They went streaking: Until Ryan Braun’s two-run, eighth inning homer, the Cardinals held the Brewers scoreless for the first 25.1 innings of the series, and it was due to a remarkable three start effort from Shelby Miller, Adam Wainwright and Jaime Garcia. If Jake Westbrook’s shutout of the Reds on Wednesday is factored in, Cardinal starters are currently on a 32-inning shutout streak.
The back-to-back efforts of Miller and Wainwright were the two of the most masterful starts of the season, overall. Miller tossed seven shutout innings of one-hit baseball, retiring 17 consecutive at one point and running his record up to 2-0. Wainwright followed the next afternoon by throwing as dominant of a shutout as possible, striking out 12, surrendering only four hits and finishing what he started to seal the series win for the Cardinals. Garcia had a more laboring effort, surrendering seven hits over as many innings, but still kept the Brewers off the board as well.
3. The long and winding road: Friday brought an appreciation of the life (and musical acumen) of Stan Musial, but it also brought back Kyle Lohse, who opposed the club for the first time since his much discussed foray through free agency. In what was sure to be a mixed emotional start, Lohse took the mound against the Cardinals less than a month after finding a new home within the division he has spent the majority of his career.
On his first at-bat, he received roughly a 30 second standing ovation from Cardinal fans, appreciative of both his work for the club from 2008 to 2011 (55 wins, 3.90 ERA) and his difficult road to finding a new home. He fared well against his former teammates, throwing seven innings, surrending only six hits and two runs. He completed the cycle of closing out his moving on process, by visiting with his former teammates and manager before Saturday’s game in the Cardinals clubhouse.
Posted in Cardinals, Featured
Posted on 16 September 2012. Tags: Alex Gordon, Best Player, Billy Butler, Clutch, Clutch Player, Eye Test, Jermaine Dye, Kansas City Royals, Leads, Majors, Metrics, Obp, Offensive Player, Ops, Outfielders, Probability, Triple Crown, Walks, Wpa
Each year, not matter how dreadful it is, a player and pitcher of the year is named by the Kansas City Royals. While it’s far from a scientific process, I thought it would be fun to try to project who will win that award in 2012. Now I want to be clear, this is not who should win the award. As is the case with most things the Royals do, what should happen and what will happen are not necessarily the same. Nonetheless, here are the contestants.

PLAYER OF THE YEAR
Alex Gordon- If this were a scientific process, Gordon would be the winner as he leads the team in WAR at 4.8. In fact, in terms of value, no one on the team is within 29% of his 4.8 WAR. After a terribly slow start to the season, Gordon now leads the majors with 47 doubles and has put together yet another spectacular defensive season. He’s quietly (at least outside of Kansas City) turned into one of the best defensive corner outfielders in the American League. Gordon also leads the team in walks and runs while placing second in hits, OBP, and triples. The negative, if there is one for Gordon, is that advanced metrics agree with the eye test that Gordon is not very clutch. In terms of advanced metrics, he is the least clutch player on the team with a clutch rating of -1.5. Furthermore, is WPA (Win Probability Added) is actually -0.5 for the season.
Billy Butler- If this was simple the award for offensive player of the year, you’d have to give it to Butler. Butler leads the club in all three Triple Crown categories plus OBP and Slugging %. Butler’s 137 OPS+ is easily the best on the team and it really isn’t close. He’s most likely going to finish with .300/30/100 for the first time in Kansas City since Jermaine Dye in 2000. Unfortunately, this is a player of the year award and that includes defense, which would be the down side for Butler and why is WAR ranks Butler as the 4th best player on the team. The only real question with Butler is whether is offensive statistics are impressive enough to override his lack of contribution in the field. That may very well be determined by his production in the last 17 games of the season.
Alcides Escobar- If we’d gotten the type of defense we expected from Escobar this season he may just be a runaway winner. Unfortunately, he has 17 errors and seems to have regressed just a little bit in the field. Of course that may be because he’s been so focused on what has been an outstanding year at the plate. Escobar leads in the team with seven triples and 29 stolen bases, is second in batting average, and surprisingly third in OBP. WAR rates Escobar as the Royals second best player, partially because he does still add something with his glove, but mostly because there just aren’t very many shortstops that can hit like him. He has a very good chance to finish the season with a .300 average, 30 stolen bases and 40 extra base hits. No one has done that in Kansas City since Carlos Beltran in 2003.
And the winner is…
I think it ends up being Gordon if only because Dayton Moore loves to feel like he’s smart and it would make him feel like a genius to have gotten Gordon’s contract done. Butler could probably only win the award by breaking Balboni’s record which would take ten home runs over the next 17 games…not happening.

PITCHER OF THE YEAR
Kelvin Herrera- Should middle relievers really be considered? Well, WAR thinks Herrera is the best pitcher on the club, so I’d say so. In 69 appearances, Herrera has a 2.43 ERA. Depending on which site you read, he may be the (consistently) hardest thrower in all of baseball. I don’t believe the Royals have the ability to recognize a pitcher with only 4 wins and 1 save, but Herrera should win the award regardless.
Greg Holland- Holland was arguably the best closer in baseball in August, and though he’s struggled a bit down the stretch he still sports a 2.98 ERA with 13 saves in 60 appearances. Holland’s most impressive stat? He’s struck out 84 batters in just 60 innings. He probably needs a couple more saves, and no more blow ups, to win the award. One thing that may help are his six wins, at least in the Royals eyes.
Jeremy Guthrie- Do I say this tongue-in-cheek? Kind of. Guthrie has been outstanding since the Royals acquired him for Jonathan Sanchez. The club is one game over .500 since they traded for him on July 20 and they’re 7-3 in games Guthrie has started including three games in which they only scored 2 runs. Guthrie would probably need to win his last three starts and lower his ERA below 3 (currently at 3.23) to have a real shot, but it plays right into the Dayton Moore making himself look smart angle.
And the winner is…
I believe in Greg Holland so I’m going to assume he finishes the year strong and wins the award with 18+ saves and a sub-3 ERA. He may not be the most deserving pitcher but he’ll have the statistics to make the club feel better about selecting him.
Posted in Featured, Royals
Posted on 02 July 2012. Tags: Accident Injury, Albe, Batting Average, Breakout, Chris Carpenter, Clutch, David Freese, Freak Accident, Game 7, Heroics, Mvp Award, Offensive Numbers, Pitch Selection, Plate Appearances, Playing Time, Rbi, St Louis Cardinals, Tendon, Three Seasons, Two Games, World Series
This week, the St. Louis Cardinals found out exactly what a full Major League season of Allen Craig looks like. He has now played in 156 games and collected over 500 plate appearances in the big leagues. The numbers are in…and they look pretty good.

In his time with the Cardinals during the regular season, Craig sports a .297 batting average with 25 home runs, 95 RBI, and a better than .880 OPS. He does have 100 strikeouts against only 42 walks, so perhaps his pitch selection could be a bit better. But those numbers are great. Craig is just one of those players who goes out and rakes.
The problem, of course, is that it has taken Craig parts of three seasons to get one season’s worth of stats on his résumé. Injuries have definitely taken a toll on the slugger’s playing time early in his career. The good news is, the biggest injury he sustained was a result of hustling his ass off and crashing into the wall knee first and not some muscle or tendon pull as a result of poor conditioning or other weakness. The time he missed certainly still counts, but a freak accident injury is something entirely different from being injury prone. It will take more time to see if Craig is predisposed to weird injuries or not.
Craig’s true breakout may have come in the 2011 World Series. Though he only hit .263, Craig had three home runs and an otherworldly 1.154 OPS. Pretty much every other performance in that series got overshadowed by David Freese’s heroics, and he certainly deserved the MVP award. But Craig at least had a case to be in the conversation. Many of his offensive numbers were very close to Freese, and he added some flash with the catch over the wall and go-ahead home run in Game 7. In fact, most of his RBI were of either the go-ahead or game-winning variety. Craig was clutch in that World Series. Remember the hits off Alexei Ogando in the first two games? Overall, Craig had just as big a part in the Cards winning that series as Freese, Chris Carpenter, and Albert Pujols.
Not too shabby for a player who one week will play several positions and the next week seem to be a man without a position. Under Tony LaRussa, Craig played everywhere on the field except pitcher, catcher, and shortstop. New manager Mike Matheny has thus far kept Craig in the outfield or at first base, an important position for him to excel in with Lance Berkman’s return uncertain.
But that is a great question: What happens if/when Berkman does come back? Where do the Cardinals play Craig if everyone else is healthy? He was capable playing elsewhere in the infield, but he was not great. With an outfield of Matt Holliday, Jon Jan and Carlos Beltran and everyone’s healthy and producing, who sits? It would be a nice problem to have…unless your name is Allen Craig.
Craig has proven he belongs in the big leagues; now he needs to prove he can stay off the disabled list. He is forcing management on and off the field to take notice by putting up rock-solid numbers. If they continue and his time on the field stabilizes, Craig has a fine career in front of him.
Posted in Cardinals
Posted on 15 June 2012. Tags: Baseball, Bats, Brew Crew, Bump, Clutch, Entire Season, Face, Fashion, Game, Jonathan, Kansas City Royals, Luke Hochevar, Milwaukee Brewers, Ninth Inning, Opportunity, Remainder, Starting Pitchers, Turning Point, Two Games, Win Games
The Kansas City Royals have accomplished something two nights in a row that they have not done all season long. Winning in walk-off fashion.
Not only does this give the Royals two needed wins on their home field but also could be a turning point for the entire season. Something that the Royals had lacked in their previous two weeks of baseball was the fact that they could not come up with the clutch hits to put them over the top of teams that were trying to give the games away. Boy does it feel better to be a fan of a team that when given the opportunity to win they take advantage of it. Smals sample sizes are something that is brought up a lot in baseball but if the Royals continue to have success this season beyond what was expected of them fans can look back at the last two wins in the series against the Milwaukee Brewers at the time when the Royals turned it all around.

Baseball starts with starting pitching. If a team can’t pitch they can’t win. In the final two games of the series the starting pitchers, both of whom were struggling coming into these starts, gave the Royals exactly what they needed. They were not perfect and did give up runs and hits but they kept their team in the game. The fact that this team is able to be in games in which pitchers like Luke Hochevar and Jonathan Sanchez are on the bump could be a huge stride for a pitching staff that by all means needs some help. They will not have to be stellar every time out but keeping your team in the game will be the biggest feat that Royals pitchers will have to face for the remainder of the season. If they can continue to put the talent in the batting order in situations where winning is an option then this team will win more games than the lose.
In Pittsburgh, the Royals bats were dreadful to say it nicely. But that all turned around when they came home. In Wednesday’s game against the Brew Crew runs were that of a minimum for the Royals until the ninth inning. And in baseball the game is not over until one team gets the other team out 27 times. That was no more evident than when Alcides Escobar stepped up to the plate with the most clutch hit of his young career driving in two runs to tie the game with a triple. The Royals would later win the game on a literal walk-off when Mike Moustakas walked with the bases loaded in the 11th inning. The biggest thing to come away from this game was the hit by Escobar in the ninth inning. Manager Ned Yost caught flack all last season when he continued to choose to not pinch hit for Escobar in situations in which a clutch hit was needed and the thrilling short stop continued to not produce. But finally that has come to fruition and Yost can tell us all, “I told you so.”
Thursday’s game was a entire different story. Once again though, the Royals waited until late in the game to score but it does not matter when you score it is the fact that they do. Eric Hosmer broke through with a two run home run in the bottom of the sixth to put the Royals on the board and more importantly give the Royals the lead in the game. The fact that starter Luke Hochevar was able to get past the fifth inning was a huge part of the game not only for tonight but also for the weeks ahead giving many in the bullpen the night off and the three relievers who did pitch were able to not throw extended sessions on the field. Then once again in the bottom of the ninth the Royals used some magic when Brayan Pena came up in the clutch again with a bloop single that scored Mitch Maier to tie the game then the Brewers made a mistake seen before by fans of Royals past by throwing the ball to second base allowing Jarrod Dyson to score all of the way from first and take the Royals to victory. Only one thing that can be said about how the Royals won the game tonight, clutch hits and “That’s what speed do.”
If the Royals can continue in their ways they will find themselves having success that they did not believe that they could be in after the first couple months of the season. If pitchers can keep them in games, relievers keep teams down, and they get clutch hits here and their the Royals may be in a race for a division that just seems to not be playing very good baseball as of late.
Posted in Royals
Posted on 12 May 2012. Tags: Beasts Of The East, Boston Red Sox, Bullpen, Clutch, Egg, Jerseys, Jonathan, Kansas City Royals, Kauffman Stadium, Luke Hochevar, New York Yankees, Nuts, Patience Is A Virtue, Paulino, Pitchers, Pitches, Rollin, Strikes, T Shirt, Walks
After a horrific start to the 2012 season at Kauffman Stadium, the Kansas City Royals showed much improvement in their second home-stand against the beasts of the east.

Against the Boston Red Sox and the New York Yankees, the Royals had it all bad pitching with good pitching, timely hitting and then not so clutch hitting. But the most important thing is that they were victorious 4 times. After going 0-10 in their first home-stand the Royals stepped it up quite a bit with the above .500 home-stand ending it at 4-3. Now it is not exactly the best result of a home-stand but the fact that they were able to come home and prove to the fans that they were truly a team and able to win ballgames is the biggest accomplish. I believe that if they would have come home and laid another egg and only won 1 or 2 games the town would have gone nuts, some maybe even hanging the t-shirt jerseys in the closet for the summer. But, just like in all sports patience is a virtue.
The surprise of the home-stand, at least on the mound that is, was the start of the season for Felipe Paulino. Some at the beginning of the season did not want to see Paulino in the Royals’ rotation, and those that did got there wish with Paulino going on the 15-Day Disabled List to begin the season. But once he was given the opportunity to pitch again in Kauffman Stadium he was not going to give his spot back. Yes is was only one start but maybe it was exactly what the pitching staff needed not only for the quality starts that have been lacking so far this season but also the ability to rest the bullpen more with an innings eater like Paulino on the mound. In his first start, he went 6 innings, while only throwing 96 pitches, 59 of which were strikes. He had 6 strikeouts and only 2 walks. Oh yeah and he didn’t give up any runs. If Paulino can continue to be a good back of the rotation guy then his value on this team is unprecedented. When you have pitchers like, Luke Hochevar and Jonathan Sanchez, on your staff that cant seem to get out of the fourth inning but once in a blue moon, having a guy that can tell the bullpen take a little time off for tonight is a huge help.
One hitter stood out on the home-stand, even though his hot streak started on the road in Cleveland. After a terrible start Gordon has seemed to found his stride at the plate. He has raised his batting average exactly 100 points since April 24th. To say that he is hot would be about right. Having a four hit game always helps the average this early in the season. The fact that he is now driving in runs not by hitting the ball out of the ballpark but cutting his swing down and getting just base hits is what stands out the most with Gordon. He is just getting base hit after base hit, as the singles come the doubles follow and the big flies follow suit. If he continues playing both in the field and at the plate he will be finding himself playing an extra game at The K around early July.
Fans, our Royals are not fully back but boy does it feel good to have them playing baseball that we all enjoy to watch. Although they had only one more wins than losses in the last seven games, it felt like the baseball that was being played was not only smart and productive but enjoyable. Losing 12 games in a row is never fun but when it is happening without having any good baseball being played that changes is completely. This team needs about a five or six game winning streak and they will be right where they and we all want to be. Right back in the thick of things in a sluggish American League Central.
Posted in Royals
Posted on 04 March 2012. Tags: Albert Pujols, All Star, Anchors, Backstops, Baseball History, Clubhouse, Clutch, Clutch Hitter, Contract Extensions, Familiar Refrain, Free Agent Market, Montero, Offensive Numbers, Ripple Effect, Running Game, Russell Martin, St Louis Cardinals, Star Catcher, Tactic, Yadier Molina
The last few days have been game-changers for the St. Louis Cardinals and, really, all of baseball.

The Yadier Molina Effect
This week, the Cards signed their all-star catcher to a five year, $75 million extension. It is one of the biggest deals for a catcher in baseball history, and ranks among the top contracts ever given out by the Cardinals. The two sides completed the deal just days after Molina’s agent laid out a familiar refrain that the player would not negotiate once the regular season started. This would have all but guaranteed Molina would test the free agent market after the 2012 season.
The progression of events was becoming strikingly similar to what the Cards went through with Albert Pujols before the 2011 season, so they struck while they still could. Molina anchors the pitching staff and is the de facto on-field manager. He controls the running game like no other catcher in the league. He is a clutch hitter and a leader in the clubhouse. Losing him—especially while the departure of Pujols was still so recent—would have been devastating to the franchise.
But the deal also had a ripple effect across the league. Almost immediately, other pending free agent backstops like Russell Martin and Miguel Montero decided to stop talking with their respective teams about contract extensions. While Molina has virtually no peer defensively, a number of catchers put up better offensive numbers and will likely use the deal given by the Cards as a basis for their demands.
The Cardinals may have slightly overpaid on this deal, but that’s not uncommon when trying to keep a player in his prime off the free agent market. But it’s curious that Molina and his agent would employ the same tactic Pujols’ camp did by setting a deadline for the end of negotiations. Was Molina coached by more than his agent on this move? Was he just imitating his friend’s tactics from the year before? Or is this the new way to entice a club into pulling the trigger sooner on a deal they know they have to make anyway? Time will tell…
Another Wild Card
Also this week, Major League Baseball expanded the postseason by adding an additional Wild Card team to each league. Starting with the 2012 postseason, the two Wild Card teams in each league will play in a one-game elimination playoff with the winner moving on to play the team with the best record in the league. For this year only, the Division Series also has to be altered so the lower-ranked team plays the first two games at home and the higher-ranked team plays the next three at home because of scheduling and travel complications.
Obviously this gives all teams in the majors a better shot at postseason play. And MLB is most definitely also trying to capture more of the drama that is a one-game elimination playoff, which has at times proven to be some of the most exciting baseball of the year.
But is this a watering down of the MLB playoff system? In the last 20 years, the league has more than doubled the number of teams allowed into postseason play. Are they simply trying to manufacture drama at this point?
Once the details of the plans were released, the internet was buzzing with scenarios and “what-ifs” regarding both the past and present. For instance, the drama surrounding Game 162 in 2011 would not have existed if the new rules were in play. Both the Cardinals and Braves would have been in on the last day of the season and preparing for their one game playoff to determine who met the Phillies. The Red Sox and Rays would have been in a similar scenario over in the AL. And as we all know very well, anything can happen in one baseball game.
The flip side, of course, is that the expanded opportunity is a good thing for teams that always seem to be on the cusp but can’t quite break through. The Toronto Blue Jays come to mind. But imagine a playoff bracket with three teams from one division getting in. Seems strange, doesn’t it? Maybe it’s only strange for the teams that still can’t seem to find their way into October.
Because we all know if the Cardinals end up being the second Wild Card team in 2012, this will be the best thing MLB has ever done, right? I think I like their chances even more now…
Posted in Cardinals, Featured
Posted on 28 October 2011. Tags: Adrian Beltre, Baseb, Cardinals, Clutch, David Freese, Extra Innings, Jake Westbrook, Josh Hamilton, Knockout Punch, Kyle Lohse, Lance Berkman, Managerial Decisions, Mike Metzger, Miscues, Nelson Cruz, Pitchers, Pitches, Runners, Siblings, Tenth Inning, Texas Rangers, World Series, World Series Game
Improbable. Unbelievable. Impossible. Ridiculous.

For as ugly as it was, Game 6 of the 2011 World Series will be remembered as a classic. Five home runs. Three lead changes. Five ties. A two-strike, two-out, bases clearing triple to tie the game in the bottom of the ninth. A two-run home run in the tenth to give Texas the lead. An RBI ground out and broken bat single to tie it again. The first time a team has trailed in the ninth and extra innings in a World Series game and come back to tie. All the defensive miscues that marred the early stages of the game have been forgotten thanks to the late-game drama.
Why do I love baseball? Because Kyle Lohse, pinch hitting in the bottom of the tenth inning, down two, almost bunted for a base hit (he sacrificed the runners into scoring position). Because the Rangers have thrown knockout punch after knockout punch at the Cardinals, and the Cardinals keep getting up. Because Adrian Beltre, Nelson Cruz, Josh Hamilton, Mike Adams, David Freese, Lance Berkman, and Jake Westbrook have all been the hero at different points during the game. Because games can’t end because the clock runs out. You have to retire 27 men, and if the game is tied you have to retire 3 while holding the lead.
Bad managerial decisions get trumped by clutch hitting and pitchers making pitches. Tension rises and falls with every hit, every out, every pitch. Fans yell until they’re hoarse. Beer flows until it’s gone. Children wonder why their fathers, mothers, siblings, and relatives shout at the TV on each play.
And then, channeling a Game 6 seven years ago, replicating a feat pulled off by the man St Louis traded to San Diego to get him, David Freese launches a home run deep into the batter’s eye in dead center. 10-9 Cardinals.
Unbelievable. Improbable. Impossible. Ridiculous.
I have no more words. I’m thankful I got to see this one and can’t wait to watch tomorrow.
Mike Metzger is an I-70 Baseball contributing writer. He also writes about the San Diego Padres for Padres Trail. Follow him on Twitter @metzgermg.
Posted in Cardinals, Featured
Posted on 13 May 2011. Tags: Abomination, American Dollars, Angel Berroa, Angel Salazar, Baseball Reference, Clutch, Contexts, Darrell Porter, George Brett, George Wright, Goats, Gob, Hunter 4, Index Tool, Jermaine Dye, John Mayberry, Johnny Damon, Lanier, Mario Mendoza, Mike Felder, Mike Sweeney, Neifi Perez, Obp, Ops 1, Otis, Pitchers, Plate Appearance, Plate Appearances, Probability, Random Variation, Rbi, Ronny Cedeno, Seven Games, Shortstop, Wpa
I consider win probability added (WPA) to be the ultimate “story” stat—it tells you exactly who the heroes and goats were. Sabermetricians have pretty well disproved the myth of consistently clutch players; players are generally who they are regardless of the situation. Due to random variation, some players are going to have extremely clutch or un-clutch seeming games and seasons when they do or do not come through in crucial situations. I think of RBI in much the same why I think about WPA. RBI numbers do not tell us a great deal about a player’s individual talent, but they do tell the story of who knocked in the runs when guys were getting on base ahead of them. But WPA paints a more exact picture of how players performed in all of the contexts presented to them.
Here is a full explanation of WPA. Here is my short version: the sum of the change in a team’s chance of winning before and after each plate appearance. (It can be applied to pitchers as well, but for this post, I will only focus on hitters.) Keep in mind that for hitters it is a purely offensive number; defense does not enter into it.
I have parted ways with two American dollars for the pleasure of diving into the best and worst WPA performances in Royals history via the Baseball-Reference.com Play Index Tool. The most gob smacking find is Neifi Perez’s horrific 2002 WPA. Royals fans know the shortstop received in exchange for Jermaine Dye was an abomination, but they may not know his -6.8 WPA that year is the worst in at least the last 60 MLB seasons, and possibly of all time. (WPA is not available prior to 1950 on Baseball-Reference.) No other season in the last 60 even comes close. Perez’s plate appearances in 2002 decreased the Royals chances of winning by 682%, or close to seven games worth.
Worst MLB WPA single seasons, 1950-2010:
| Rk |
Player |
WPA |
PA |
Year |
Tm |
G |
AB |
H |
HR |
RBI |
BA |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
| 1 |
Neifi Perez |
-6.819 |
585 |
2002 |
KCR |
145 |
554 |
131 |
3 |
37 |
.236 |
.260 |
.303 |
.564 |
| 2 |
Sam Dente |
-5.181 |
654 |
1950 |
WSH |
155 |
603 |
144 |
2 |
59 |
.239 |
.286 |
.299 |
.585 |
| 3 |
George Wright |
-5.053 |
393 |
1985 |
TEX |
109 |
363 |
69 |
2 |
18 |
.190 |
.241 |
.242 |
.483 |
| 4 |
Gary Disarcina |
-5.051 |
583 |
1997 |
ANA |
154 |
549 |
135 |
4 |
47 |
.246 |
.271 |
.326 |
.597 |
| 5 |
Ronny Cedeno |
-4.570 |
572 |
2006 |
CHC |
151 |
534 |
131 |
6 |
41 |
.245 |
.271 |
.339 |
.610 |
Neifi actually had a pretty good opening day in 2002. He went 3-for-5, moved some runners over with a single, knocked in a run with a triple, and scored two runs himself. His .047 WPA was good for second best on the Royals lineup that day. However, a sign of things to come occurred on the last play of the game: Neifi was up in the bottom of the ninth, Royals down 6-8, two on and two out. The Royals clung to a 10% win expectancy, but Neifi popped out and the game was over. On April 24th, he was the Royals WPA hero with a 3-for-4, three RBI game. But the good days were a rare exception in this season from hell.

Neifi hurting the team again...assumedly
Our Neifi came to the plate 585 times that season. Crucial moments of games seemed to find him. Alas, he was rarely up to the task. After only five percent of his plate appearances did he leave his team in a better position to win. Five percent! I do not even understand how that is possible when he got on base 26% of the time, but there it is. He had a few especially disastrous games, but he achieved the historic low more by being consistently bad day in and day out. With runners in scoring position, his already dreadful offensive skills tumbled even lower to the tune of .221/.246/.270. The Worst Season A Royals Player Ever Had may have hit its nadir when Perez refused to enter a game:
Perez…created a major clubhouse incident by refusing to enter a Sept. 9 game against the Chicago White Sox as a defensive replacement for rookie Angel Berroa. Perez later said his refusal was a joke that was misinterpreted, but his action caused a rift with several teammates. Many privately called for his immediate dismissal from the club.–Bob Dutton, November 19, 2002 Kansas City Star
Neifi makes Angel Berroa look like a golden god. Here are the Royals worst WPA single seasons:
| Rk |
Player |
WPA |
PA |
Year |
Tm |
G |
H |
HR |
RBI |
BA |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
| 1 |
Neifi Perez |
-6.819 |
585 |
2002 |
KCR |
145 |
131 |
3 |
37 |
.236 |
.260 |
.303 |
.564 |
| 2 |
Angel Berroa |
-3.448 |
503 |
2006 |
KCR |
132 |
111 |
9 |
54 |
.234 |
.259 |
.333 |
.592 |
| 3 |
Angel Salazar |
-3.437 |
332 |
1987 |
KCR |
116 |
65 |
2 |
21 |
.205 |
.219 |
.246 |
.465 |
| 4 |
Greg Gagne |
-2.923 |
581 |
1993 |
KCR |
159 |
151 |
10 |
57 |
.280 |
.319 |
.406 |
.724 |
| 5 |
Tony Pena |
-2.902 |
536 |
2007 |
KCR |
152 |
136 |
2 |
47 |
.267 |
.284 |
.356 |
.640 |
| 6 |
Jason Kendall |
-2.832 |
490 |
2010 |
KCR |
118 |
111 |
0 |
37 |
.256 |
.318 |
.297 |
.615 |
| 7 |
Cookie Rojas |
-2.828 |
409 |
1970 |
KCR |
98 |
100 |
2 |
28 |
.260 |
.296 |
.326 |
.622 |
| 8 |
John Buck |
-2.818 |
430 |
2005 |
KCR |
118 |
97 |
12 |
47 |
.242 |
.287 |
.389 |
.676 |
| 9 |
David Howard |
-2.805 |
485 |
1996 |
KCR |
143 |
92 |
4 |
48 |
.219 |
.291 |
.305 |
.595 |
| 10 |
Jermaine Dye |
-2.756 |
283 |
1997 |
KCR |
75 |
62 |
7 |
22 |
.236 |
.284 |
.369 |
.653 |
Jason Kendall sighting! Kind of ironic that Jermaine Dye makes the list.
Here is a happier list, the Royals best WPA single seasons:
George increased the team’s WPA in 40% of his plate appearances in 1980. With runners in scoring position, he upped his line to .469/.542/.815. He of course dominates the Royals all-time list as well:
| Rk |
Player |
WPA |
PA |
From |
To |
G |
H |
HR |
RBI |
BA |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
| 1 |
George Brett |
52.107 |
11624 |
1973 |
1993 |
2707 |
3154 |
317 |
1596 |
.305 |
.369 |
.487 |
.857 |
| 2 |
Amos Otis |
27.275 |
7969 |
1970 |
1983 |
1891 |
1977 |
193 |
992 |
.280 |
.347 |
.433 |
.780 |
| 3 |
Mike Sweeney |
15.970 |
5278 |
1995 |
2007 |
1282 |
1398 |
197 |
837 |
.299 |
.369 |
.492 |
.861 |
| 4 |
Hal McRae |
15.666 |
7361 |
1973 |
1987 |
1837 |
1924 |
169 |
1012 |
.293 |
.356 |
.458 |
.814 |
| 5 |
John Mayberry |
13.528 |
3752 |
1972 |
1977 |
897 |
816 |
143 |
552 |
.261 |
.374 |
.448 |
.822 |
| 6 |
Danny Tartabull |
10.832 |
2684 |
1987 |
1991 |
657 |
674 |
124 |
425 |
.290 |
.376 |
.518 |
.894 |
| 7 |
Carlos Beltran |
9.043 |
3512 |
1998 |
2004 |
795 |
899 |
123 |
516 |
.287 |
.352 |
.483 |
.835 |
| 8 |
Darrell Porter |
8.194 |
2262 |
1977 |
1980 |
555 |
514 |
61 |
301 |
.271 |
.375 |
.435 |
.809 |
| 9 |
Paul Schaal |
5.541 |
2340 |
1969 |
1974 |
606 |
525 |
32 |
198 |
.263 |
.360 |
.368 |
.728 |
| 10 |
Kevin Seitzer |
5.110 |
3163 |
1986 |
1991 |
741 |
809 |
33 |
265 |
.294 |
.380 |
.394 |
.774 |
At the other end of the spectrum is another team hall-of-famer. Frank White reached a positive WPA in just two of his 18 seasons. Good thing he had that golden glove.
Royals worst career totals:
| Rk |
Player |
WPA |
PA |
From |
To |
G |
H |
HR |
RBI |
BA |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS |
| 1 |
Frank White |
-16.325 |
8467 |
1973 |
1990 |
2324 |
2006 |
160 |
886 |
.255 |
.293 |
.383 |
.675 |
| 2 |
David Howard |
-9.272 |
1586 |
1991 |
1997 |
547 |
320 |
8 |
130 |
.229 |
.289 |
.302 |
.591 |
| 3 |
Cookie Rojas |
-8.135 |
3354 |
1970 |
1977 |
880 |
824 |
25 |
332 |
.268 |
.314 |
.346 |
.660 |
| 4 |
Neifi Perez |
-8.045 |
805 |
2001 |
2002 |
194 |
179 |
4 |
49 |
.238 |
.265 |
.303 |
.568 |
| 5 |
Freddie Patek |
-7.601 |
4867 |
1971 |
1979 |
1245 |
1036 |
28 |
382 |
.241 |
.309 |
.321 |
.630 |
| 6 |
Angel Berroa |
-7.287 |
2496 |
2001 |
2007 |
627 |
606 |
45 |
235 |
.263 |
.305 |
.384 |
.689 |
| 7 |
Brent Mayne |
-7.187 |
2200 |
1990 |
2003 |
664 |
483 |
20 |
205 |
.244 |
.305 |
.322 |
.627 |
| 8 |
John Buck |
-7.104 |
2116 |
2004 |
2009 |
584 |
450 |
70 |
259 |
.235 |
.298 |
.407 |
.705 |
| 9 |
Greg Gagne |
-7.092 |
1472 |
1993 |
1995 |
386 |
358 |
23 |
157 |
.266 |
.317 |
.392 |
.708 |
| 10 |
Onix Concepcion |
-5.841 |
1130 |
1980 |
1985 |
389 |
248 |
3 |
80 |
.238 |
.277 |
.293 |
.570 |
Bringing things to the present, here is how 2011 Royals hitters are shaping up this season:
Escobar is bringing up the rear in all of the majors, and is on pace to enter some seriously unpleasant territory. At his current pace, if he equaled Perez’s 585 plate appearances, he would end up with -8.7 WPA. Ruh-roh.
Posted in Classic, Royals
Posted on 22 April 2011. Tags: Alexi, Ballpark At Arlington, Ballpark In Arlington, Bruce Chen, Champion Texas, Chris Perez, Clutch, Derek Holland, Duels, Fri, J Wilson, Kansas City Royals, Kyle Davies, League Champion, Melk Man, Plentiful Amounts, Series Preview, Sun Apr, Texas Rangers, Thursday Night
The excellent website, Royals Treatment, provides I-70 Baseball with series previews this season for the Kansas City Royals games. Kansas City travels to Texas to take on the defending American League Champion Texas Rangers in The Ballpark In Arlington.

The Melk-man delivered again with a clutch game-tying & go-ahead RBI single off astound Indians closer Chris Perez on Thursday night inching the Royals that much closer to the division lead. They now travel deep into Texas for a series with the reigning AL Champion Rangers! :
Fri. Apr. 22. 7:05 pm CT - Jeff Francis (0-1, 3.00) v. Derek Holland (2-1, 3.66)
Sat. Apr. 23. 7:05 pm CT – Kyle Davies (1-1, 7.20) v. Alexi Ogando (2-0, 2.33)
Sun. Apr. 24. 2:05 pm CT – Bruce Chen (3-0, 2.42) v. C.J. Wilson (2-0, 3.08)
This series features a pair of tremendous left-handed pitching duels, sandwiched around a date with an elite rookie Rangers flamethrower in Ogando. The ball flies out of The Ballpark at Arlington so regardless of who’s on the mound, plentiful amounts of runs should still be put on the board.
You can read the remainder of the series preview by clicking here.

Posted in Royals
Posted on 22 February 2011. Tags: 6 Years, Alex Rodriguez, Berkman, Brett Wallace, Cardinal Fans, Cardinals, Clutch, Clutch Hits, Colby Rasmus, Fan Base, Franchise History, Free Agent Market, Fuel To The Fire, Mash, Matt Holliday, Nlds, Pujols, Rbis, Tony La Russa, World Series
There’s no question that Tony La Russa is the single most divisive figure in the Cardinals franchise. Matt Holliday might be second.

Much of the fan base was upset with the trade that brought Holliday to St. Louis in the first place. Brett Wallace was a fast-rising prospect in the organization, and for everything he seemingly could not do in the field, he made up for with his bat. The kid could straight mash with the best of them.
The anti-Holliday movement regained momentum in the 2009 NLDS. He batted .167 in the series and dropped what would’ve been the final out of game 2, ultimately costing the Cardinals the game and their run at a 3rd trip to the World Series in 6 years.
Adding more fuel to the fire, Holliday tested the free agent market for a good 2 months after the season, making comments that would lead you to believe he wanted anything but to return to the Cardinals. He then eventually signed to the richest deal in Cardinals franchise history.
And then, he got off to a terribly slow start in 2010, and his inability to get clutch hits began to remind fans of Alex Rodriguez in the playoffs pre-2007.
But Holliday rebounded, eventually evening out to his normal self in the 2nd half of the 2010 season. It was evident that the pressure of the huge deal and all the expectations had gotten to him. He only hit .250 with the bases loaded, and just .271 with runners in scoring position. And despite all of that, he still managed to hit for .312, 28 HRs, and 103 RBIs for the season. Insane.
Just imagine what Cardinal fans could be in store for this season: Holliday with all the pressure off in year two of his contract could easily hit over 30 HRs and 120 RBIs with a decent start in the first couple months of the season. And with Pujols and Berkman playing for contracts batting 3rd and 5th in the lineup, the Cardinals could have one of the most lethal 3-5 combinations in baseball. Bookend those hitters with Colby Rasmus and David Freese, and you’ve got potentially the best Cardinals lineup since the 2004 squad. Only time will tell, and for the first time in a while, it feels like time is finally on our side: 6 days until the spring opener, 37 until opening day.
Posted in Cardinals