The St. Louis Cardinals have gone through a 15-game stretch when they’ve scored more than three runs just five times, yet they’ve won eight of those games. So despite near panic that the lineup has forgotten how to hit, the team is still winning ballgames mostly because the starting pitchers have been terrific to start the season.

The starting rotation likely won’t continue to pitch with a historically low 2.15 earned-run average, which was the fourth-lowest starters ERA for April in franchise history, but there are several reasons to believe the offense will start scoring many more runs on a consistent basis.

Third baseman David Freese is currently in a horrible slump, hitting just .163 with no homeruns and three RBIs, and centerfielder Jon Jay is hitting .213 with two homeruns and eight RBIs. Those sound like great numbers compared to Freese, but the Cardinals need at least average production from both of those spots to contend in the National League Central Division.

The other aspect of this situation is the Cardinals’ opponents. The Cardinals have faced arguably four of the six toughest non-divisional opponents in April, the Arizona Diamondbacks, San Francisco Giants, Philadelphia Phillies and Washington Nationals, and every NL Central team they’ve played has a winning record.

This isn’t going to be an easy season no matter how well the Cardinals play. Sure, the Cardinals could have four or five more wins already if the bullpen hadn’t been horrible to start the season, but chances are slim the Cardinals are going to go on any long winning streaks this season. The competition is just too good.

The Pittsburgh Pirates took two of three games from the Cardinals last weekend as A.J. Burnett threw another quality start Saturday, and rookie Jeff Locke shut them down Sunday (which isn’t surprising given the Cardinals typical struggles against left-handed pitchers, especially ones they haven’t faced before).

Then the Cincinnati Reds visited Busch Stadium for a very well-pitched series in which Reds starter Homer Bailey was the only starting pitcher to give up more than two runs in the three-game series when the Cardinals scored four against him Wednesday.

Those types of games are unquestionably difficult to watch when the Cardinals lose, but they are well-played games nonetheless. The offense does need to produce more runs, but good pitching has always beaten good hitting, and thankfully the Cardinals have good pitching.

Also, several Cardinals hitters are unlikely to stay stuck in their slumps.

Freese and Jay have proven throughout their careers they are good hitters who can make significant contributions to a lineup. Freese has a career .290 batting average, including his poor start to the 2013 season, and Jay is a career .294 hitter who has shown recent signs of life at the plate with three hits in a recent series against the Pirates.

Plus, the Cardinals schedule lightens up a bit in May. They will face the Chicago Cubs, New York Mets and San Diego Padres, which are already a combined 17 games under .500, for nine games in the next month. By comparison, the Cardinals’ April opponents are a combined 10 games over .500 as they head into May.

So although it’s easy to look at the winnable games the Cardinals lost in May, they should win more of those types of games this month because the schedule will be a little easier and, based on career averages, the offense should begin to produce more runs, especially against teams with weaker pitching staffs.

That all sets up what could be a fun month of baseball so long as the Cardinals avoid injuries, which isn’t a guarantee. This is the point in the season when they lost Allen Craig, Lance Berkman and Matt Carpenter to injuries for extended time in 2012.

The NL Central is too good this season for the Cardinals to jump out to a large lead, but St. Louis fans should be confident their team will still be at or near the top of the division by the time the calendar turns to June.

The St. Louis Cardinals project to have an Opening Day lineup full of players who will regularly get on base and it also features plenty of power to drive them in. The one thing the team will lack, however, is speed.

The Cardinals stole 91 bases in 2012, which tied them with the Texas Rangers for 24^th of 30 teams in Major League Baseball, but players who stole more than a quarter of the Cardinals bases last season are either hurt or no longer with the team.

Shortstop Rafael Furcal stole 12 bases last season but is out for the season with an elbow injury, and fellow shortstop Tyler Greene, who had nine stolen bases, is now with the Houston Astros.

That leaves the Cardinals with about four regular stolen base threats. Slow-footed but incredibly intelligent catcher Yadier Molina stole 12 bases last year and could very well steal another dozen or so this season. Rightfielder Carlos Beltran had 13 stolen bases last year, but he is 35 years old and has slowed down considerably in recent years after various knee injuries.

The other proven stolen-base threat from last year’s team is centerfielder Jon Jay, who had 19 last season. He will likely lead the team again this season unless outfield prospect Oscar Taveras makes the team, but even he hasn’t stolen more than 10 bases in a season during his four seasons in the minor leagues.

Shortstop Pete Kozma stole just two bases during his brief 26-game stint with the Cardinals at the end of 2012, but he once stole 24 bases in 2008 and had 13 in 2010, all in the minor leagues.

Other than those options, the Cardinals will likely enter the season with a pretty slow team, but that’s not necessarily a terrible fault.

The Cardinals won the World Series in 2011 after stealing just 57 bases, which ranked last in the National League, and only the Detroit Tigers had fewer steals with 49 that season. The Cardinals also made it to within one game of the World Series in 2012 while ranking 24^th.

And they aren’t the only team that has found it can win without stealing bases. In fact, just three teams that made the 2012 playoffs ranked in the top half of baseball in stolen bases. The Oakland A’s were ninth, the San Francisco Giants were 10^th and the Washington Nationals were 15^th.

Otherwise, all of the best teams didn’t steal many bases. The World Series-champion Detroit Tigers actually ranked dead last for the second year in a row, but they had great power and great pitching.

Those two factors are also why the Cardinals shouldn’t be too concerned about the number of bases they steal in 2013.

They have a lineup that should easily rank in the top 10 in all three of the Triple Crown categories, batting average, homeruns and runs batted in, and they have a pitching staff that should be more than solid if not for too many injuries.

Sure, Chris Carpenter is no longer an option at the top of the rotation, but the Cardinals have arguably the most young talent on their pitching staff since the days Tony La Russa decided to come to St. Louis because Matt Morris and Alan Benes were on their way to the big leagues.

The Whitey Herzog disciples will forever yearn for the days when Cardinals players of the 1980s slapped the ball into play and ran like the wind around the bases, but those days have long since passed. And they aren’t coming back anytime soon, at least not as long as the Cardinals furnish a lineup with five batters who can hit 20 or more homeruns.

So while the Cardinals style of play might not be terribly exciting on the basepaths, nearly every other aspect of their play is good enough that they will likely once again be playoff contenders come September.

As the Los Angeles Dodgers and Angels spent unprecedented amounts of money during the offseason to try to establish dominance, a battle between rivals in the Midwest could be the most intense race of the 2013 season.

The St. Louis Cardinals and Cincinnati Reds have won the National League Central Division in three of the past four seasons, and each team has made moves this offseason to bolster their chances to do so again next year.

The Cardinals haven’t added much, but they also didn’t have many holes to fill. They signed left-handed relief pitcher Randy Choate to a three-year, $7.5 million contract to fill the team’s biggest need in the bullpen. They also signed bench player Ty Wigginton to a two-year, $5 million deal, but unless Wigginton comes up with a late-inning homer against the Reds, that signing is negligable.

The Reds, who beat the Cardinals by nine games last year to win the division, made more substantial moves. They resigned reliever Jonathan Broxton to a three-year, $21 million contract to be the team’s closer for the foreseeable future and resigned leftfielder Ryan Ludwick for $15 million across two years. The Reds also traded for outfielder Shin-Soo Choo from the Indians to be their centerfielder and leadoff hitter next year.

The Broxton signing should allow flamethrower Aroldis Chapman to be in the starting rotation next year, and the trade for Choo fills a massive hole at the top of the lineup.

Drew Stubbs, who went to the Indians in the trade, held that spot last season, but he hit just .213 with a .277 on-base percentage and 166 strikeouts. By contrast, Choo hit .283 with a .373 on-base percentage and struck out 150 times. That’s still a lot of strikeouts for a leadoff hitter, but Choo provides more power and is certainly an upgrade in a spot the Reds tried to improve at last season’s trading deadline.

Although neither team has made nearly as many moves as several other teams so far in the offseason, the Cardinals and Reds have fortified their rosters to stage quite a battle throughout the 2013 season. They’ll do so without handing out contracts worth more than $100 million, as the Dodgers did by signing pitcher Zack Greinke and Angels did by signing outfielder Josh Hamilton.

The Cardinals and Reds have a recent history full of intense games that have at times led to shouting matches and even a full-out brawl in 2010. With both teams loaded and ready for battle heading into the season, one might think this could be a season series full of more temper tantrums and games that will leave blood boiling for both teams and both fanbases.

But this year’s rivalry might take a more professional turn. Both the Cardinals and Reds know each organization has a good team, and they will likely be the two strongest contenders for the NL Central Division title.

In past years, the Reds were an up-and-coming team that felt it had to rough up the more established Cardinals to gain entrance to the top of the division. Those days are gone. General manager Walt Jocketty has built a roster with a good starting rotation, solid bullpen and increasingly potent lineup filled with stars such as Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips and Jay Bruce.

This year’s Cardinals-Reds rivalry could be similar to recent battles in the AL West between the Texas Rangers and Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. Both teams had some of the most talented rosters in the league, and they stuck strictly to playing solid, intense yet not over-the-top baseball games.

Although it might be fun for fans to watch for extracurricular activities on the field and in the dugouts similar to a playoff hockey game, it might be even more impressive to watch a season series that has good, high-quality baseball.

So while big-market teams on the West Coast battle each other with dollar bills in the offseason, actual games between the Cardinals and Reds next season could create the most interesting division races in all of baseball.

KANSAS CITY, MO (November 9, 2012) — The Kansas City Royals announced today that the club has signed three players to minor league contracts for the 2013 season.  The club plans to announce Major League Spring Training invitations at a later date.

Catcher Manuel Pina was re-signed by the Royals after appearing in 49 minor league contests for Surprise (R) and Northwest Arkansas (AA) in 2012, as well as one game with the big league club in September.  The 25-year-old from Venezuela missed the first three months of the season after undergoing surgery to repair a meniscus tear in his right knee during Spring Training.

Ian Gac, 27, spent 2012 with Double-A Mississippi in the Atlanta system, batting .247 with seven home runs and 35 RBI in 75 games.  The 6-foot-3, 240-pound first baseman/designated hitter was the Carolina League MVP in 2011 after hitting .279 with 33 home runs and 96 RBI in 140 games with Winston-Salem (AA).  The slugger has connected for 167 home runs in his professional career since being selected out of Edmonds-Woodway (Wash.) High by the Texas Rangers in 2003.

26-year-old outfielder Luis Durango hit .289 and stole an International League-leading 46 bases in 62 attempts for Triple-A Gwinnett in 2012, serving as the club’s primary centerfielder.  The 5-foot-9 switch-hitter from Panama has played 39 games in the Major Leagues for the San Diego Padres in 2009 and 2010, hitting .292 with seven stolen bases in eight attempts.  Durango is currently competing for Caribes in the Venezuelan Winter League, batting .324 with five steals and playing all three outfield positions.

Welcome back to the annual Progressive Game Blog.  For the last four years, the United Cardinal Bloggers have come together to tell the story of an entire game from multiple voices on multiple sites.

This year, not only will you find the voices of many members of the UCB, you will also find some of our friendly Mets bloggers describing the game from their own standpoint.  You can read all of the entries by following along through the main “index” post over at the official UCB Site.

I-70 Baseball will bring you the third inning of today’s game as will Mets Fans For Life.

The Cardinals come to the plate in the top of the third down by three runs as the Mets plated three in the bottom of the second (read about the second inning over at Cards N Stuff.  Young centerfielder Shane Robinson will look to get the Redbirds started in front of pitcher Lance Lynn and the top of the order.

A Texas League single to right put the lead off man on board but an all to familiar story unfolded with Lance Lynn at the plate.  On three consecutive pitches, Lynn was unable to push a bunt into fair territory, and the opportunity to move the runner up 90 feet passed the Cardinals by.  Unable to move the runner into scoring position or out of a force play situation proves once again to be fatal as lead off hitter Rafael Furcal grounds into an inning-ending double play.  Give Shane Robinson credit for a solid attempt to break up the double play as Daniel Murphy attempted to make the turn.

A quick aside as we wait for the bottom of the third inning to play out: I don’t think I have seen any other team in baseball represented as well on the road as the St. Louis Cardinals.  No matter what city they visit, there is almost always a strong representation of Cardinal red in the crowd.  Not to be out done in New York, there is a young lady sitting directly behind the plate sporting the familiar bright red cap adorned with the white STL logo.

What Lynn lacks in ability to drop a bunt, he more than makes up for on the mound.  After a rough second inning, he took the mound to face the middle of the Mets’ order, starting with cleanup hitter Lucas Duda.  After falling behind Duda, Lynn battled back to get him to fly out to left fielder Matt Holliday.  Daniel Murphy would follow with a fly ball towards the right-center field gap, but the defensive positioning was in place to make it a routine out for Carlos Beltran.  Young Mets first baseman Ike Davis would fall behind in the count early and yet work a walk out of Lynn.  After falling behind shortstop Omar Quintanilla, Lynn battles back for his second strikeout of the game and keeps the Mets from causing any more damage.

Working deep into counts is hurting Lynn early on in this game and his pitch count is climbing to out of control proportions as he closes the third with 71 pitches, 41 of which are strikes.  At this rate, the game will soon be in the hands of the Cardinals’ bullpen.  It feels strange to say that any game in the hands of this bullpen is a major concern at this point.  If the Cardinals hope to pull this one out, they will need to get some offense going and some efficient innings for their starter.

Head over to Rally Birds to check out the top of the fourth inning.  Thanks for stopping by our corner of the Cardinals web-o-sphere to check out or commentary.  Here’s hoping this game turns around quickly.

This team is hopeless. Dayton Moore has run it into the ground. The Glass family hasn’t been willing to spend to keep pace with the big-market clubs.

Ned Yost is a terrible in-game strategist. He mismanages his bullpen. “The Process” is just a myth. Our so-called “best farm system in baseball” means nothing at the big league level.

Something about our development of young pitchers is causing them to break down. Luke Hochevar is the new Kyle Davies. We should never have given Salvador Perez such a big contract at 21 years of age. Johnny Giavotella should have made the big league roster instead of Chris Getz.

I heard every one of these opinions expressed ad nauseum during the month of April. Particularly on talk radio, but also in the traditional newspapers and of course in the Internet blogosphere, Everyone piled on like a rugby scrum.

Now the team is the hottest in baseball, as of May 16, having knocked off the mighty Texas Rangers in back-to-back road contests.

I know this Royals team isn’t among the league’s best. But they are winning at that pace at the moment, and they’re steadily climbing back toward .500.

The negativity rubbed me wrong in April, and I couldn’t be happier that the Royals are vindicating themselves now.

Sure, the 12-game losing bender made me sick. But the rats fleeing the ship made me even sicker.

Think about it. Which team could have survived losing their ace reliever, centerfielder, catcher and a key starting pitcher (Felipe Paulino) at the start of a season?

Could the Rangers? They haven’t made a roster move yet. Take four key pieces from that team and see how good they would be.

Could the Yankees? They’ve limped along after the loss of Mariano Rivera.

I’m not trying to make excuses for the 12-game bender. But just as we’re probably not as good as our record in May would indicate, we probably weren’t as bad as we played in April.

I’m trying to not get too high over winning 12 of our last 18. But I don’t appreciate everyone who jumped off the bandwagon when we were 3-14. Maybe they didn’t belong on the bandwagon after all. Just stay off and leave room for the real fans.

The St. Louis Cardinals lost a huge part of their offense when Albert Pujols signed a 10-year, $240-million deal with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, but that also forced the team to build a more balanced lineup. Now every spot in the order consistently pushes across enough runs to put the Cardinals atop the NL Central as April comes to a close.

But, the margin for error is much slimmer without Pujols. There were times during the last decade when Pujols basically won an entire game with his bat. If it was a close game late, Cardinals fans always felt like the team had a chance to win as long as Pujols got another at-bat.

That’s no longer the case. The 2012 Cardinals have to string together multiple hits to score runs in bunches, but they have done surprisingly well to start the season. From shortstop Rafeal Furcal to centerfielder Jon Jay, each part of the lineup is contributing to give the Cardinals a .278 team batting average, which is the best in the National League.

Hopefully, the increased responsibility on each spot in the order will make this team more slump-proof than previous Cardinals teams. Pujols could mask a bunch of deficiencies in a lineup, but there were times when he would be the only hitter consistently producing runs. So far this season, Cardinals hitters have done an excellent job of picking each other up and getting base hits to keep the line moving.

For example, the Cardinals smashed the Milwaukee Brewers on Friday night with 13 runs, but they didn’t particularly smash the ball. Instead, the Cardinals laced together 15 hits, and only four went for extra bases with no homeruns.

I’m not saying the Cardinals can’t hit homers. They sit second in the National League with 24 homeruns, but they also have the consistency to manufacture runs without the long ball. That, combined with the excellent starting pitching the team is getting from its starting rotation, could make the Cardinals quite a force during the course of the season in the National League.

All of those offensive topics are even sweeter considering Pujols is still searching for his first homerun as an Angel, going 21 games to start the season without a homer.

In fact, the Cardinals likely have the most complete team in the division despite preseason concerns that the Cincinnati Reds might have more firepower. The Reds’ pitching staff has some significant holes.

Johnny Cueto has been fantastic to lead the staff with a 3-0 record and 1.39 ERA, but he is the only starter in the Reds rotation to have more than one win. Mat Latos, Mike Leake, Bronson Arroyo and Homer Bailey have a combined 3-7 record with a 4.65 ERA.

The Cardinals rotation, by contrast, has an ERA of 2.81, and that’s while carrying Adam Wainwright’s 7.32 ERA.

Cardinals fans could not have realistically expected a better first month to the season, and fortunately there is plenty to be excited about over the course of the next five months.

With the desert in the rear view mirror and the Cactus League preseason in the books, it’s about time to get things going for real.

The soaring hopes of Royals fans were tempered considerably in Surpise by injuries to Joakim Soria, Salvador Perez, Blake Wood and Felipe Paulino. The team scrambled to plug the gaps, but spring training quickly went from idyllic to daunting.

The injury to Perez was particularly detrimental to the team’s lineup, because KC lacked a big-league-caliber Plan B.

One thing is for certain, with a few exceptions, the hitters far outpaced the pitchers in Surprise. That probably comes as no surprise, actually. The combination of dry air, altitude and an off-season’s accumulation of rust would tend to hamper the pitchers. But two things are apparent – the Royals have a talented collection of hitters, and they are unsettled in the starting rotation.

But as for the hitters, no one is really shocked that Eric Hosmer led all of baseball in RBIs this spring, least of all Ned Yost.

“I feel like every time he comes us with a runner on, he’s going to drive him in,” Yost told reporters in Surprise. “I think he’s going to be a special player for us in the years to come.”

Hosmer drove in 29 runs in just 26 games, and led the Royals with a .416 average (among those with more than 10 at bats).

Possibly the most positive event of the spring was the dominance of centerfielder Lorenzo Cain. There was no question going in – he was handed the job. But rather than merely accept it, he claimed it like he was at an audition.

Cain quieted any doubters by bashing five homers in just 66 at bats, tied with Hosmer for the team lead. He batted .394, stole four bases and drove in eleven runs. Best of all, he led all regulars with a 1.255 OPS. Cain was so impressive, Yost is considering repositioning his centerfielder in the second spot in the batting order.

Right behind Cain in nearly every category was Alex Gordon, whose signing to a long-term deal was probably the highlight of the spring. Gordon added four homers, 14 RBIs, a .385 average and 1.086 OPS.

Other positives are that Alcides Escobar hit .350 and struck out just four times, and Billy Butler hit the ball with authority – four homers and seven doubles for a .672 slugging percentage.

One positive turn of events in Surprise was Yuniesky Betancourt’s showing at second base. The jury is still out on Yuni as a utility infielder, but he showed a surprising deftness around second base and may have won the starting job.

The addition of utility outfielder/infielder Jason Bourgeois may be another unexpected positive from the spring. The newcomer brought such speed and athleticism that Jarrod Dyson became expendable. In 16 plate appearances, Bourgeois produced a .375 average to go with three walks and seven stolen bases. He should prove a capable fill-in in all outfield spots and even at second base and possibly at third.

There are, of course, negatives, starting with Mike Moustakas’ 19 strikeouts to just 3 walks in 69 at bats. Had Moose not warmed up in the final week, his numbers would have been abominable. Even with the hot finish, he wound up with just 2 homers and seven RBIs, a .261 average, and a .301 OBP.

Another negative, as far as the youth movement is concerned, is the Chris Getz/Johnny Giavotella battle for the second base job. Most everyone looked forward to Giavotella becoming yet another of the prospects to claim a starting position. But Giavotella’s work at the plate during the spring didn’t make up for his less-than-stellar defense. Giavotella will start the year at Omaha, where he can play every day.

Getz was praised by Yost for remaking himself into a different player, but his .222 average and .244 SLG looks like the same old Getz.

Jeff Francoeur did not have a good spring offensively. No one seems concerned that Francoeur’s “bounce-back” year will be a one year bounce. Frenchy managed just one homer in Surprise and all his other numbers were among the worst on the team.

One player who no one cared about his offensive numbers was newly-acquired catcher Humberto Quintero. Quintero will bring stability to the catching situation in KC, but it doesn’t look like he’ll bring much pop to the offense. In eight games, he produced just four hits (none for extra bases) and one RBI.

Spring Training statistics go into the trash as soon as the teams head north. But KC fans see some positive growth from the young hitters that make this an exciting time, in spite of the injuries. Now the youngsters have 162 games to prove what they can do for real. As the Royals tell us, this is “Our Time.”

In part 4 of this multi-part series, we take a look at the trades of the Dayton Moore administration that were made in 2009 for the Kansas City Royals.

Click the years to see the previous articles:

2006
2007
2008 

As we move on to 2009 and beyond, it is important to note that the data begins to become a little less reliable.  The reason being that there are fewer years on which to judge a player.  If the Royals traded an established major leaguer for a good prospect that has yet to break into the major leagues, based on the formula we use, the Royals may not get any credit for the trade.  But overall, it should even out both ways, especially when we combine the WAR scores for all of the years at the end.

As was illustrated in last week’s column, 2008 was a bad year for Dayton in terms of trades.  Injuries were to blame for part of this, as was plain bad luck.  Even so, by 21st century Royals standards, 2008 was not that bad of a season.  For one, they didn’t finish in last place.  Finishing 75-87, it was the Royals best season since the fluky “smoke and mirrors” 2003 season.  With Zack Greinke ready to take the leap into superstardom and an elite closer in Soria, there was some positive momentum going into 2009.  On top of this, right after the 2008 season, the Royals dealt for speedy centerfielder, Coco Crisp, and slugging 1B Mike Jacobs.  There was definitely an attitude amongst Royals people that they would have an opportunity to compete for the division in 2009.  So let’s see how Dayton fared in his trades in that year…

April 1, 2009: The Kansas City Royals traded Ross Gload and cash to the Florida Marlins for a player to be named later. The Florida Marlins sent Eric Basurto (minors) (May 13, 2009) to the Kansas City Royals to complete the trade.

A journeyman bench player, Gload spent 2 pretty meaningless years with the Royals, so seeing him get dealt was neither a blow nor a surprise.  One might have thought the Royals could have gotten more than a 40th round pick in Eric Basurto, but apparently not.  Basurto, to his credit, is still playing baseball in the Royals organization and spent last season in Double A Northwest Arkansas.  He likely has little to no upside, so this trade was pretty meaningless.

Gload: 1.3 WAR with Marlins (2009)

Basurto: 0.0 WAR (has yet to appear for Royals)

Marlins win trade by 1.3 WAR

July 10, 2009: The Kansas City Royals traded Derrick Saito (minors) and Dan Cortes to the Seattle Mariners for Yuniesky Betancourt.

The critics came out of the woodwork for this one.  At the time, the Royals needed a shortstop in a bad way.  After Mike Aviles was injured early in the season, they were left with a combination of Willie Bloomquist and Tony Pena Jr.   Many would make the argument that by making this trade the Royals worsened their shortstop situation.  And the numbers would support that.  Not only was Betancourt carrying a relatively hefty contract, but he absolutely positively sucked.  In 2009, he was far worse than replacement level. Rumor has it Seattle fans were laughing when the Royals traded for Betancourt.  In his defense though, he was much better in 2010 than in 2009, even leading the team in home runs that year.

Saito: 0.0 WAR (never appeared for Mariners and appears to be out of baseball)

Cortes: -0.1 WAR with Mariners (2010-2011)

Betancourt: 0.0 WAR with Royals (1/2 of 2009 and 2010)

Royals win trade by 0.1 WAR

September 3, 2009: The Texas Rangers traded Tim Smith (minors) and Manny Pina to the Kansas City Royals for Danny Gutierrez (minors).

This is one of those trades that cannot be fairly judged using the WAR statistic.  The Rangers have absolutely nothing to show for this trade, while the Royals have likely their backup catcher of the future in Pina, along with Smith who is still in the organization.  But the advantage is only 0.1 WAR so the impact is minimal for the purpose of this study.  Despite what the #’s below say, this trade was a big win for Dayton and company.

Gutierrez: 0.0 WAR (never appeared for Rangers and appears to be out of baseball)

Smith: 0.0 WAR (has yet to appear for Royals-played last season in Double A Northwest Arkansas)

Pina: -0.1 WAR with Royals (2011)

Rangers win trade by 0.1 WAR

November 6, 2009: The Chicago White Sox traded Josh Fields and Chris Getz to the Kansas City Royals for Mark Teahen.

This one is interesting.  When it was first made, it looked kind of good.  Teahen’s production had begun to tail off signifcantly in Kansas City.  Many believed that it was because he had gotten himself so mentally screwed up by the constant changing of positions.  This may have been true.  So the White Sox acquired him and signed him to a multi-year deal to make him their everyday 3rd baseman.  The Royals were picking up their new everyday 2nd baseman in the speedy Chris Getz, and Josh Fields, a 3b/OF who had hit 23 HR as a rookie in 100 games in 2007.  Fields quickly did nothing in KC, and Getz proved himself to be nothing more than a steady defensive 2B with some speed and no power.  And when I say no power, I mean NO power.  In 2 years with the Royals, Getz has a total of 18 extra base hits.  His 3 home runs in 2009 with the White Sox is starting to look VERY suspicious.  Teahen  picked up right where he left off with the Royals, and eventually continued to regress.  He was eventually sent off to Toronto in the middle of last year, and is currently without a team.  So this trade, which at the time was a very important one for the Royals, turned out to be pretty meaningless for both teams involved.

Teahen: -1.2 WAR with White Sox (2010 and 1/2 of 2011)

Fields: -0.1 WAR with Royals (2010)

Getz: 0.6 WAR with Royals (2010-2011)

Royals win trade by 0.7 WAR

Based on the study, the Royals lost by 0.6 WAR on 2009 trades.  The good news though, is they gave up very little.  Perhaps Dayton was scared off by what happened in 2008, or perhaps he learned from it.  One might argue that they missed an opportunity to get more for Teahen, but at least they weren’t burned by it.  They added Pina, who while maybe not a huge part of the future, is a part of the future nonetheless.  Getz is still with the ballclub, though his role for this coming season is in question.  Next week, we take a look at Dayton’s 2010 trades.

As Royals fans we all know about Dayton’s plan. We hear Dayton wants young athletic players to fill his Major League roster. We hear how spacious Kauffman Stadium’s outfield is. Then in 2011 we sign Melky Cabrera coming off the worst season of his career. Offensively, we knew Melky had tools, but defensively we knew he could be atrocious. He was coming off a season where his UZR/150 rating was -25.2 in Atlanta as a CF. Not the worst of his career, but you see my point. After this signing, came the inevitable trade of Zack Greinke to the Milwaukee Brewers. This is where our Lorenzo Cain story starts.

Lorenzo was the young up and coming CF of the Milwaukee Brewers. Lorenzo had experienced his first taste of the big leagues in 2010, playing in 43 games. We heard about his athleticism and the defensive tools he was bringing. We clamored for Lorenzo to get the opportunity to start in 2011 as our centerfielder. Lorenzo performed well in spring training, but Melky was promised CF. Staying true to his word to Melky, Lorenzo was off to Omaha. In Omaha, Lorenzo proved he was ready for his chance. In 128 games Lorenzo hit .312 with a .380 OBP. Throughout his minor league progression, he has shown an ability to hit for average and get on base. In 7 minor league seasons, Lorenzo has posted a .295 average and a .368 OBP. This year, Lorenzo had a power surge hitting 16 home runs to go along with his 28 doubles and 7 triples. Will this translate into major league production? This will be the big question going into the 2012 season. Bill James seems to think so. His projections for Lorenzo Cain’s 2012 season show splits of .284/10/58. With his past numbers and the development he has continued to show, it seems we can expect solid offensive production from Lorenzo. By no means should we expect him to produce like Melky did in 2011, but who would have ever thought Melky would have produced the way he did.

That brings us to an aspect Lorenzo brings that no “legitimate” Kansas City CF has had. SPEED! Cain currently may not be a prolific base stealer, but has shown flashes that he knows how to use his speed. More importantly, Lorenzo will be able to use his speed and instincts to patrol the spacious outfield at Kauffman Stadium. During times that Lorenzo struggles offensively, which is something we can expect from a young player with a long swing, his defense can save runs. When you compare the UZR/150 ratings it can put a player’s defensive value into runs saved. The most fascinating aspect of this statistic is how much defense can off-set a player’s offensive value. Let’s compare recent Kansas City CF’s defensive statistics.

2011 Melky Cabrera

2009 – 10 Mitch Maier

2010 Lorenzo Cain

As you can see from the sample sizes above Lorenzo Cain profiles to be a much better defensive centerfielder than the players who have patrolled centerfield in Kansas City most recently. Lorenzo’s defensive ability will continue to improve as he grows comfortable with his surroundings at Kauffman Stadium. One of my favorite quotes from Lorenzo regarding his defensive ability was taken from an interview with Rob White of the Omaha World Herald. “I like to run around out there and use my legs a little bit,” he said. “I try to get the best reads I can and make plays for our pitchers. It’s always fun to save some runs when you can.” For our young and developing pitching staff this is vital. We witnessed the difference an outstanding defensive SS can make. Adding the additional defensive element up the middle will strengthen our defense significantly.

That brings us back to our initial question. Should We Go Loco For Lorenzo? Since 2004 when David Dejesus made his full time Major League debut we have not had a center fielder to be excited about. If Lorenzo Cain can provide us with David Dejesus like offensive production, which is close to what his current statistics project to be. With the defensive production Lorenzo Cain provides we may have someone special on our hands. Is it time to go Loco? I say why not! Lorenzo still has a lot to prove, but the talent and desire is there. Lorenzo profiles to be one more piece to the championship puzzle we all crave. Let’s Go Loco For Lorenzo!