Unless you have been hiding under a rock for the last few weeks, you are aware the St. Louis Cardinals are in the middle of a very bad stretch of baseball. Before Monday’s win at New York, the club had dropped 5 straight and if you take out the sweep against the AAA padres on a 4-17 stretch of baseball.

Bad.

For whatever reason, I do not believe the sky is falling and all is lost for either this season or the future of the organization. Perhaps it is because I like Mike Matheny, and want to believe he will get it turned around. Perhaps it is that Mozeliak has earned some trust that he makes moves for the long-term good of the club, and not just knee-jerk reactions to fix immediate needs. Perhaps it is because I believe in the talent and leadership of this team, and understand what they have been up against with all the injuries. Or perhaps, I have allowed a paradigm shift to take place this season to take the long view and not get so caught up in the “window is now” mentality that has pervaded the Cardinals organization for the last several years.

It solidified in my mind last Friday night as I was on Conversations with C70 podcast. As I was talking with host Daniel Shoptaw, he reminded me the importance of getting out of that “all-in” mentality that it’s this year or nothing. Should fans have the expectation to put a winning product on the field? Of course. Is expecting to win a World Series or deep playoff run every year realistic? No. And again, do not take this as I am throwing in the towel on the Cardinal’s chances for this season. Just trying to provide some perspective.

The messaging from the media and front office the last few seasons has created a sense of urgency to “win now”. The conversation always centered around the need to win before Albert Pujol’s free agency, or before Tony LaRussa retired, or while Jim Edmonds and Scott Rolen were still producing at a high level.

We are in a different era now.

Yes it would be nice to get Berkman, Carpenter, and Beltran another ring; but this team has positioned itself to be a contender for a long, long time. There is good talent at the major league level, and the deepest farm system in years. That farm system is being bolstered by another solid draft

*Quick aside: I was overall happy with the Cards draft, and think they can sign a bunch of players based on where they slotted…but my gosh wouldn’t it have been nice to see one completely risky pick on a raw high schooler with a ton of talent? Isn’t that the point of having 5 of the first 59 picks, you get to risk one of them? Dan Kantrovitz played it safe in his first draft. Time will tell if he plays it this safe in every draft. I sure hope not…he was sitting on an incredible opportunity this year to take a very high upside but risky player, and didn’t do it. *

Heading into the Mets series, the Cardinals boasted the 3rd best run differential in MLB, and best in NL. Pitching has obviously been more problematic than offense during the May/June slide. But here is the main problem as I see it. Lack of veteran presence within the bullpen.

Some would say Mozeliak went all-in with a bunch of second year arms in the bullpen and that was foolish….that the club made a huge mistake letting Dotel walk. Be careful before quickly jumping to that conclusion. Yes, Dotel is a great pitcher, but Mozeliak had an experienced left-handed reliever in Marc Rzepcynksi coming off a great 2011. He also added two veteran relievers in the off-season that should have provided the needed veteran presence: Scott Linebrink and JC Romero.

Unfortunately, Romero severely underperformed and was released. Rzepcynski has struggled, and Linebrink got hurt. What is Mozeliak supposed to do? The Memphis roster has already been depleted due to the huge number of injuries this season. Should Mo trade off top prospects for bullpen arms this early in the season? It seems the approach is to ride out the tough stretch for the time being and allow players to get healthy, and deal from a position of strength and not urgency.

My plea to Cardinal fans is to take the long view. Realize the window to win is big, and a knee-jerk move to shore up a short-term problem may not be in the best interest of the organization for this year, and certainly over the long-term. The Cardinals will figure it out. A veteran presence is needed in the bullpen, perhaps Linebrink is one piece and we trade for another in July. But all is not lost.

The window to win is bigger now than ever.

The United Cardinal Bloggers come together a few times a year for a great project known as “The UCB Roundtables”. The fall edition starts today, and it starts right here on i70baseball.

I asked UCB Founder and the man we call The Godfather, Daniel Shoptaw, for a few words about the project. Here is your history lesson for the day:

Back in the spring of 2008, I was invited to do a roundtable with another Cardinal blogger on a general baseball site. While I don’t believe it was exactly how we see the roundtables today (hey, I found an archived link!), I enjoyed it enough that I thought I could adapt it to the nascent UCB. We took our first crack at it in June of 2008 and it’s been a regular part of the UCB rotation ever since. Now we do one before the season starts as our February project and one after the season ends as an October project. This year we have roughly 30 bloggers scheduled to participate.

So, I get to throw out the first pitch. I figured, honestly, that we would not be able to avoid talking about Albert Pujols for long, so I jumped in head first with the question on everyone’s mind, prior to Tony LaRussa announcing his retirement and making my question obsolete prior to publishing. I asked the UCB the following:

Albert Pujols is no longer a Cardinal and has moved on to greener (see what I did there?) pastures. Put your General Manager hat on for me and tell me what moves you feel need to be made if the team desires to be competitive in 2012. Is there a key free agent or specific position that Mo should attempt to upgrade? Should he stand pat? Anything other than reacquiring Pujols is on the table.

The answers, which have been edited a bit, both for space and to keep them on point, are as follows:

Aaron Hooks, Cards Diaspora
Sign Edwin Jackson.

I know, not nearly as sexy as signing Prince Fielder, but having a quality 4th starter to go with Wainwright, Carpenter and Garcia…
then Jake Westbrook as the Cardinals 5 is a very, very sturdy rotation in 2011.

The Cardinals will have to get increased production on a more regular basis from Allen Craig and Jon Jay and something from SS. But they can win, albeit, not as spectacularly as with #5, but they can win.

Also, I’ll never mention Prince Fielder and ‘sexy’ in the same answer ever again. Promise.

Ray DeRousse, STL Cardinals Baseball
Personally, I’m all for not re-signing Pujols. While he has a competitive attitude, I think he is too self-absorbed, arrogant, and fragile to have that kind of money or that many years.

I’d love to install Allen Craig at first base. He would give you 25-30 home runs and somewhere around a .300 average. Many have suggested Berkman at first and Craig in RF, but Berkman seems adamant on remaining the outfield (and we want him as happy as possible).

I would NOT re-sign Furcal, Theriot, Rhodes, or Patterson. I’d install Tyler Greene at short, or bring up Ryan Jackson (though he’s probably still a year away). I’d hang on to Punto if he’s around a million. I’d possibly keep Laird, although my inclination is to give Tony Cruz a shot.

What I really want is a true leadoff hitter on this team. How about we trade Matt Holliday and get a young lefthanded reliever and a stud second baseman (or shortstop) who can lead off? I was salivating over the idea of having an Ian Kinsler on our team, or nabbing someone like Jose Reyes. This lineup needs more oomph from the top.

Otherwise, I wouldn’t change much. The starters are set (unfortunately, and there’s nothing that can be done about it) and most of the bullpen is set. It’s time to transition into the youth movement we know is coming in 2013/2014, and this would be a way to
start.

Kevin Reynolds, Cards N Stuff
One thing 2011 taught us is that SS is not an “offense first/routine play” position. On UCB day at Busch, I asked Mozeliak about our depth at SS in the system if Theriot doesn’t work out. That remains my concern. This team now has offense. It has chemistry. What it needs is a SS with solid defensive ability and good plate discipline.

Perhaps the most intriguing question beyond that – assuming no trade/signing is made to upgrade the rotation (heard the Roy Oswalt rumor) – revolves around Skip Schumaker. Jon Jay is a decent CFer…but he’s shown himself vulnerable to prolonged droughts. The team needs to carry at least one other option at CF. Skip Schumaker could be that option…but he’s also left-handed. Perhaps the best way to shake Jay out of slumps is to platoon him in LH/RH matchups until his bat adjusts again. That is much more difficult to do with two LH CFers. It would be nice to have a RH option.

Of course, the second base question looms large for Schu as well. As it stands, this team has 3 regular options at 2B – Theriot, Punto, and Schumaker. That’s 1 too many. Again, Tony likes the RH/LH options. Punto has proven valuable at multiple positions…and he’s a switch-hitter, satisfying Tony’s “flexibility” pre-requisite. Schumaker is a valuable super-utility man…able to play all three outfield spots, 2B against RH pitchers, hit leadoff on occasion, and even pitch in a pinch ;). As much as I hate to say it, Theriot is the odd man out here. He performed well offensively in an everyday role early in the season, but his defensive issues – which are not related to playing SS – limit his availability in 2012. How much does that degrade his offensive contributions?

I think the team needs to focus on signing a SS first…defensive stability and plate discipline…and then attempt to sign a bench, RH option in CF…and that may mean dealing Theriot somehow. Oh…and FYI…Allen Craig in CF scares the bejeezus outta me! So let’s not entertain thoughts of him as a CFer. Plus, Craig is a stud…so far…let’s not put him in the “replace Albert with 25 – 30 HRs” category until he logs a few everyday at-bats. He killed in several at-bats in the postseason…he’s looked entirely vulnerable in many other at-bats – and I say this having watched Craig play in Springfield quite a bit.

Aaron, El Maquino
Use the cash you’re not paying Pujols and get a free agent rightfielder (DeJesus, Ludwick, Nady) and closer (Bell, Rodriguez, Soriano).

Daniel Shoptaw, Cardinal 70
I’m thinking along the same lines as many others here. I’d probably use the payroll surplus, such as it is, to absorb Jake Westbrook’s contract (though I wouldn’t argue with Kyle Lohse, I think Westbrook’s contract was even more ill-advised) and see if I couldn’t get Roy Oswalt to come play for the team he’s always wanted to join at a price that worked for both of us. Use Tyler Greene at short, either Berkman or Craig at first, find someone to play second, and I think this team contends yet again.

Miranda Remaklus, Aaron Miles Fastball
First off, with Albert gone, you’ll need an all-star bat to take the pressure off Holliday and the young guys. I don’t think you can depend on Matt Holliday to handle being “THE” star. He did well behind Albert and ahead or behind Berkman. I don’t think he can be the one. And this will be David Freese’s third season. He’s not ready to be shoved into that role, even though he made a GREAT case for himself this post season. And Allen Craig is kind of a younger Skip Schumaker. He’ll always have place in the lineup. I don’t think he likes having a set spot. He seems to thrive being where he is needed.

You don’t sign Prince Fielder though. I initially didn’t believe he would mesh with Tony, but now I’ll just say, he doesn’t mesh with the fan base!

Sign EJax or another quality 4th starter. Keep Jake. I just like him. Gutsy and classy during the playoffs. Move Lohse to the pen for longish relief or try to trade him. Zepper can work on becoming a long reliever or another rotation arm if needed. My baby bird farm favorite John Gast might even make an appearance this season!

Sign Rafael Furcal. He was such an upgrade at SS. I don’t know if you’ll find a better player and teammate for the cost. Tyler Greene is not our SS next season. He’s super inconsistent. I saw him play at Memphis this summer, where he was supposed to be getting consistent playing time. He wasn’t consistent even then. I’d really like for him to succeed in St. Louis. I loved that he was the one that got the steal that started the rally comeback against the Cubs at the end of the season. It was beautiful. Although, with Tony gone THIS might change now.
Tara Wellman, Aaron Miles Fastball
Like Miranda, I like Rafael Furcal. I like his energy, his intensity (though it hurts him at the plate sometimes) and his qualities as a teammate. The intangibles make him more than his .195 batting average. That said, character alone doesn’t win championships. There’s always the Daniel Descalso option, though not as popular with some. If he gets the work at SS, I’m one of those who believe he could do it … and do it well.

A post-Albert team will likely have to rely on strong pitching if the offensive gap can not be filled (and who, exactly, could fill number five’s shoes?). I like the prospect of a Wainwright, Carpenter, Garcia, Jackson starting four, so I resign Edwin. Westbrook is another one of those guys that may not always have the goods, but he has the heart. I can see him doing just what he did in the World Series — coming in to relief situations that may be longer, but more concentrated than a full start. Lohse has the stuff to be a good 5th man, but I’m not opposed to seeing what we could get for him.

I’m one of those who likes the idea of Berkman at 1st base with Allen Craig — or even Craig/Schumaker — in right field. Lance held his own out there, but I’d rather have his experience at 1st, at least for now. As others have said, Matt Adams might make good progress over the off season, and that presents a more … “youthful” option for the future.

Speaking of Skippy, I want him on this ball club. Not only can he go in at several positions, but he’s a competitor and will do whatever is needed to help the team win. Yes, if you want him in center field, it doesn’t align with the RH/LH matchups. But without Tony, that may not be as necessary as before. I know somebody is going to have to walk, but if I’m setting up a winning team, I don’t want it to be him.

Oh, and above all, I echo those who have said it — don’t sign Prince Fielder! Yes, he might be good. But he’s not a Cardinal.
Erika Lynn, Diamond Diaries
Should Albert leave, I like what we already have and see no reason to run to the market. The Cardinal talent is deep – it just won us a CHAMPIONSHIP after all.

However, in that scenario, I would predict Berkman moves to 1st and Allen Craig gets his deserving place as a regular in the lineup, playing right field.

I love these guys. I love this team. With Adam Wainwright in 2012, the sky’s the limit (again). In my perfect world, we keep everyone…. even the turtles and squirrels. ;)

Dustin McClure, Welcome To Baseball Heaven

Rob Darnell, Rob Says Really

I love it when the Cardinals are in first place. Absolutely, positively love it. Mostly because it means exactly what it is: The Cardinals are in first place. But, I also love it because it of what it infers: The cubs are NOT in first place, and trail the Cardinals in some capacity. I admit to being a homer, I even said to a friend earlier today that I “am not drunk on Cardinals Kool-Aid, but I do drink the stuff.”. Having said that, I want to look back at the general feeling in Cardinal nation at a couple of intervals, then look forward.

Feb 23rd: Cardinals fans (in general) figured they’d have a fight on their hands, but if things went just right for the redbirds, and just wrong for the Reds & Brewers (and cubs, depending on who you spoke with), the Cards could win the National League Central division. Then came the Wainwright news on the 24th. Hearts in Cardinal nation sank, hearts (and players) in Cincinnati sang, and lines in Vegas shifted. Suddenly, the Cards “had no shot”.

Chris Carpenter talks to Jake Westbrook while Kyle Lohse & Kyle McClellan look on

March 30th: Fast forward five weeks Opening Day. By & large, the general consensus for the pitching staff was: Carpenter (#1) would need to be the Cy Young contender that he’s been in recent years, and with Waino on hielo, the Cardinals could ill-afford to waste a single Carpenter start all year. Westbrook (#2) made sense to move to the second slot, more on that in a moment. He had a solid 2010 second half with the Cards, and with a little run support (4 runs) he very well could’ve been a perfect 8-0 in a Cardinals uniform-he pitched that well. The assumption was that his performance wouldn’t be that different, and having just signed him to a 2-year deal in the offseason, his importance is now huge, with Wainwright out. Garcia (#3) certainly had success as a rookie, but he probably takes more losses in the 2 hole, and to make him third is significantly better in terms of match-ups during the year, not to mention the starting rotation’s only southpaw fits comfortably sandwiched between two righties ahead of & behind him. Then there were two big questions at the back of the rotation. Where on the spectrum of 2003/2008 Kyle Lohse to the Lohse we’ve seen over the past few years, would the 2011 Kyle Lohse (#4) be pitching from? The answer would likely play a big role in the Cards success level this season. Finally, Kyle McClellan (#5) would emerge from spring training as a starter, for the first time in his major league career. Although he “stretches out and acts like a starter every spring training”, we’d yet to see how he would perform in the starting role. Being the 5th man takes a lot of pressure off, and quite frankly, it’s the only realistic slot for him. Speaking of “Frankly”, I think we all knew Ryan Franklin was going to be the closer, and most fans probably thought little of that, until thinking about late August. Other minor chatter surfaced here & there about the ‘pen, but nothing major.

May 11th: Six weeks into the season, and here’s my take on how much things have changed since Opening Day. Carp just notched his first win of the year, and it took him 8 starts to get it. Granted, that’s not entirely his fault (only one of those 8 was in Arizona, after all), and sure we’re looking at Ws & Ls…a somewhat faulty benchmark anyway (SABR Alert!). So much for making every Carp start count. Fortunately, we’re in May, so a lot of the “He’s on pace to…” talk is over, and we don’t have to listen to how he’s on pace for 4 wins this year. (Oops!) Westbrook? Other than the ERA near 7, triple the number of earned runs as Jamie Garcia, less than 40 IP in 8 starts, and a K/BB ratio of 1, he’s been mediocre. Garcia, 4-0 with a 4 K/BB, and sub-2 ERA, has been nothing short of outstanding thus far. Can’t say enough about the job this kid has done to this point-could be a legit #2 guy on a lot of clubs with what we’ve seen so far. #4 guy, Kyle Lohse is healthy, and looks very good! He’s rocking a 2.9 K/BB and 0.860 WHIP to go along with his 4-2 record. One of those losses was a 107-pitch outing where he went 8 strong, scattering 6 hits, giving up only one run. Unfortunately, this was during a 14-inning streak where the Cards were no-hit, and Lohse got no run support in that last outing. K-Mac has also seen the right mixture of lucky & good so far. At 5-0, his control has been less-than-ideal at times, but he’s gotten the job done, and has proven to be as reliable a 5th starter as the Cardinals could have hoped for.

Dave Duncan talks with Molina (left) and Jamie Garcia

Opening day is just over the hill. 2011 is a very strange year for both Royals and Cardinals. This actually could very well be the strangest year in decades for both franchises.

The case of the Royals sheds a feeling of anxiety. The other side of the coin in Saint Louis presents a feeling of uncertainty. I think most readers can agree with me on these two statements.

In my eyes, Cardinals aficionados usually know where they stand. They usually have a good idea of what might happen in the season ahead. For the most part, I’d give a leaning vote to positive thinking and say the Cardinals instill a sense that they will not shell out a losing season. With their heads still above water, under Mozeliak’s wing they sink a little deeper every year as the grip loosens a little more. It’s not dramatically frightening because we all know the Cardinals have just enough stability to not completely fall apart and just enough talent to stay in the middle of the division. The loss of Adam Wainwright is the largest low blow to any team this season and I think the Cardinals are still attempting to get that awful pill down.

Jaime Garcia put up extremely promising numbers last year, posing a continuing threat to an already solid pitching staff. This year’s spring training numbers tell a different tale though as he has dished out a 1-3 record in five appearances and a heavy 7.95 ERA to boot. Should the front office be concerned? Is this an early sign of the eventual mediocrity to come? This we know is true: Carpenter will get his fill and find a way to be productive. There is no need to worry about that. BUT, with the loss of Wainwright to Tommy John surgery and the nail biting fact that Garcia is underachieving in the spring, Saint Louis could be in trouble before the season even begins.

The Royals know the future is bright, although the present is lack luster. They are receiving more publicity than ever since the first half of 2003, when they went on a tear. The farm system is the best Major League Baseball has seen in twenty years and the Royals know that. There are plenty of arguments to be made for how the Royals handle their organization though. What they do with their money and how they move their players is questionable to say the least. However, Dayton Moore and company grabbed the attention of Royals fans regarding the promising future of the ball club.

Fans in the Royals nation want to see results now. There is an anxiety to grab the money and run away in the fields of MLB success. Many people speculate that patience is the key for the team’s rise. They know that the team should accept the fact they are very weak this year, will most likely lose 100 games, and continue the trend of bottom feeding. That good fortune will arrive with time and that fans should shovel their trust in the hands of the front office. That this seven-year plan is almost to its conclusion and victory upon victory is now within the reach.

The Kansas City Royals have provided us with an interesting blueprint, one that most can depict as a blueprint for resuscitation. Bringing back to life something that was once dead. It takes time. It takes trust. It takes money in the right places. It takes draft ability. It takes the perfect amount of team analysis and management, all churned into one interesting mix on the rocks that will eventually go down smooth.

Having these suspicions headed into the 2011 season creates for a very odd assumption. The Royals, so horrible in their own right, have found the key to a hidden door. The door still difficult to open yet reaps of promise. The Cardinals, meanwhile, are always secure and engaged with expectation, yet unfamiliar with the current lack of depth and stability.

We are left with two odd feelings from two completely different faces in the game. Only time can tell the direction each team is headed.

Personality Goes a Long Way

Much was made about perceived chemistry and personality issues within the 2010 Cardinals’ clubhouse. Players and coaches alike insisted that was not the case, but clearly players like Lance Berkman and Ryan Theriot were brought in to reinstate a professional atmosphere and provide veteran leadership in addition to what they can contribute on the field.

Friend of the site Cadence with Chris Carpenter

That said, Kyle Lohse doesn’t allow the “chemistry” excuse to fly regarding last year’s team. “If we’re winning, chemistry is not an issue with that same group,” he said. “It’s only when the team is struggling as a whole and people are looking for reasons. I don’t think we had big cliques and everybody got along but when times are going tough of course it’s going to be quiet. I don’t think it was any one person or a few people’s problems.” He went on to say the players never really talked about any chemistry issues in the clubhouse; they were too worried about playing the game. “It’s not something that was in the forefront of our minds; we were worried about what we were doing that night and how to get out of those funks we were in.”

Although he acknowledged it is always a benefit to the team when quality veterans are brought in, Carpenter also refused to blame the 2010 squad’s shortcomings on team chemistry. “We had a good clubhouse last year and guys enjoyed being around each other…we just didn’t do the things we needed to do to win,” he said. “We had the talent, I think, we just didn’t play well. It was the same going into Spring Training last year, talking about the series against the Dodgers (in the 2009 NLDS). We had the talent to win then; we just didn’t play well. And we didn’t play well last year.”

When pressed about why the team didn’t play well in 2010, Carpenter offered a sentiment that is no doubt shared by the rest of the team, the entire coaching staff, the front office, and all of Cardinal Nation. “Last year was last year. I’m excited about spring and I’m excited about our players.”

Indeed it is exciting, because it is a new year…and pitchers and catchers report in less than a month.

Chris Reed is a freelance writer from Belleville, IL who also writes about the Cardinals for InsideSTL on Mondays and Bird Brained whenever he wants. Follow him on Twitter @birdbrained.

Badly leaking oil, the Cardinal playoff bus limps into Houston for a three-game set.

It is almost infamous now. Sweep the Reds, take a one game lead. Drop five of 8 at home. Take to the road, against two of the worst teams in the NL, drop 4 of 6. Turn that one game lead into a 4 game deficit in the division, and a two game deficit in the Wild Card race, with 34 games to go. If the Cardinals have any hope of making the post-season they must turn it around now.

Current Snapshot

St Louis - 69-58, 2nd place NL Central, 4 games behind Cincinnati. The one thing St Louis has going for it right now is it’s only 3 games back of Cincinnati on the loss side. Well, that and Albert Pujols.

Houston – 58-70, 4th place NL Central, 15 games behind Cincinnati. Houston also sits 13 back of the Philadelphia Phillies for the wild card, meaning they are playing out the string. Houston is 22-17 since the All-Star Break; St Louis is only a half-game better.

Probable Pitching Match-ups

30 August – Jake Westbrook (1-2, 2.57 xFIP) vs JA Happ (3-2, 4.90 xFIP). All statistics for these two are since they were traded to their current teams. Happ has never personally beaten the Cardinals, but his teams are 1-2 when he starts against them. JA has faced St Louis since becoming an Astro, back on 4 August; he did not get out of the second inning, allowing 7 runs. The Cardinals as a team have a .991 OPS when facing Happ, albeit it in only 41 plate appearances. Some of the more gaudy numbers belong to Albert Pujols (1.768; 4-7, 2B, HR), Matt Holliday (1.500; 3-4), and Skip Schumaker (1.167; 1-3, 2B).

Jake Westbrook has really pitched well since moving to St Louis – .640 OPS against, .295 BABIP, 31 K in 31 innings. Whatever reasons one may believe on why the Cardinals have slumped so badly in August, Westbrook should not be one of them. He went six innings on August 2 against the Astros, allowed only 2 runs, and did not figure in the decision. Westbrook has held the current crop of Astros in check (.738 OPS in 64 PA). Carlos Lee has far and away the most success off him (1.035 OPS; 13-32, 3 2B, HR).

31 August – Chris Carpenter (14-4, 3.81 xFIP) vs Wandy Rodriguez (10-12, 3.76 xFIP). Ace #1A for St Louis against the undisputed ace of the Astros. Rodriguez may be more famous in Cardinal circles for his ability to hold Pujols in check, but he is a legitimate ace, and since the All-Star Break he’s pitched like one. He has been nasty since 19 July (1.82 ERA, .602 OPS, .286 BABIP, 56 K in 54 IP). Take away the 5 ER he allowed in that 19 July start and he’s been Gibson-like in the second half. Yet the Astros have lost half of his starts since the Break. The Cardinals have faced Rodriguez three times in 2010, beating him on 12 Apr and 11 July, losing to him on 12 May.

Current Cardinals have put up a .631 OPS against him in 230 PA. Leading the way is Matt Holliday (1.126; 8-26, 2B, 3B, 3 HR). Randy Winn is the only other Cardinal with an OPS over .800, and that’s because he is 2 for 4 against Wandy.

Carpenter is 7-4 career against Houston. He’s 1-1 this season, beating the Astros on 13 May and losing to them on 4 August. Houston has logged a .539 OPS when he pitches (126 PA). He and Wandy Rodriguez have faced each other only once, back in 2009 at Busch. Carpenter got the win, Rodriguez a no decision.

1 September – Jeff Suppan (1-4, 5.14 xFIP) vs Nelson Figueroa (1-1, 3.89 xFIP). Again, these statistics are since each pitcher joined his current team. Figueroa was claimed via waivers from Philadelphia on 21 July. He’s pitched pretty OK since joining the Astros, joining their rotation on 17 August after Houston sent Wesley Wright back to AAA. Figueroa features a fastball, slider, and curveball. His fastball is his best pitch, with his curve and slider being slightly below average.

Figueroa has not started a game against St Louis since 2004, when he was a Pirate. He has pitched twice out of the Astro bullpen against St Louis, getting credited with the win on 2 August. Pedro Feliz is 5 for 9 with a double off him, and represents the most success by a Cardinal against Figueroa.

Jeff Suppan makes his triumphant return to the rotation, starting his first game since 31 July, after dealing with an extended DL stint. He has not had much career success against Houston (3-8 overall), and lost his lone Cardinal start against them on 10 July. Multiple Astros have teed off on him (.952 OPS in 167 PA), led by Geoff Blum (1.474 OPS: 15-28, 4 2B, 2 HR) and Hunter Pence (1.274 OPS; 5-15, 2B, 2 HR). This might be a long afternoon.

Prognosis

After I submitted my last 3 Cardinal previews the Cardinal rotation has changed. Let us hope this series will not make me 4 for 4. On paper, and based on recent performance, the Cardinals have the advantage on Friday, Saturday is a wash and slightly favors the Astros, and Sunday should definitely favor Houston. If the past 2 weeks have shown us anything, however, what ought to happen is not necessarily what does happen.

The Cardinals badly need this series. I would expect LaRussa to pull out all the stops as he attempts to win it.

St Louis is limping through a 1-4 homestand, and now faces a team as desperate as they are in the San Francisco Giants. This series between two playoff hopefuls portends as a taut affair.

Current Snapshot:

St Louis- 65-53, 2nd place NL Central, 3.0 behind Cincinnati. The euphoria over sweeping Cincinnati quickly evaporated while losing 4 of their next 5 to the lowly Cubs and Brewers. Cardinal frustration continues to mount, whether it be from late-game rallies falling just short, a lack of offense from anyone on the infield not named Albert Pujols, or jello-style shaky starting pitching from the back of the rotation. At least the aforementioned Pujols is on a tear at the moment (since 29 July: .400/.447/.800, 8 HR).

San Francisco- 67-54, 2nd place NL West, 6.o behind San Diego. Jonathan Sanchez predicted a series sweep against the Padres last weekend. The Giants instead lost 2 of 3, and have been clubbed by the Phillies in back-to-back games. Their starting pitching, always thought to be their biggest strength, has fallen apart a bit recently (0-9, 5.73 ERA over their past 14 starts). Offensively they have improved mightily since the start of the season, with ROY candidate Buster Posey (.338/.386/.512) and mid-season acquisition Pat Burrell (.283/.373/.549, 12 HR) leading the charge.

Probable Pitching Match-ups:

Friday: Madison Bumgarner (4-4, 4.28 xFIP) vs Jake Westbrook (1-0, 2.06 xFIP). Bumgarner is the Giants 2007 first round draft choice and was ranked the fourteenth best prospect overall in that draft. He had a cup of coffee at the major league level last season and was promoted into the Giant rotation starting on June 26. There had been concerns in the Giant organization regarding a drop in velocity on his fastball, but if his performance at the Major League level is any indication it has not affected his ability to get people out. Bumgarner features a fastball that averages 91 MPH, a slider, and a curveball. He also throws the occasional changeup. His off-speed pitches are all above average, according to fangraphs, although it must be noted that’s with less than 1000 pitches thrown.

He’s never faced the Cardinals. As you might expect, he handcuffs lefties (.553 OPS career) but not really righties (.802 OPS).

Westbrook has pitched pretty well since joining the club (.592 OPS allowed, 19K in 19 innings) despite the 1-2 team record when he starts. Another data point you can’t judge a pitcher by his won/loss record. Jake’s xFIP is obviously unsustainably low and a correction will happen at some point, but for now let us enjoy the ride. He has never faced the Giants in his career. That said, a couple of Giant hitters have a history with him. The guy with the highest success rate? Aubrey Huff (.368/.417/.474 in 24 PA). Juan Uribe has homered twice off Westbrook in his career.

Saturday: Tim Lincecum (11-7, 3.38 xFIP) vs Chris Carpenter (13-4, 3.75 xFIP). Two of the top three finishers in last year’s NL Cy Young voting square off Saturday. (WARNING – Fox Game of the Week bash follows) This is the only game Saturday featuring two playoff hopefuls, so naturally most of the country will be treated to Atlanta vs the Cubs. Lovely (END BASH).

There is a lot of concern in the Bay Area regarding Tim Lincecum and his stuff. He has lost an average of 3 MPH off his fastball over the last two seasons, yet he’s still 5th in the league in xFIP and second in the league in strikeouts. His last two starts have been brutal, however; he hasn’t survived the fifth in either and allowed 11 ER total. He has recorded 10 of his 23 outs by strikeout, for what that’s worth.

As you might expect for a guy with back-to-back Cy Young’s, Lincecum has owned the Cardinals. St Louis has never beaten him (5-0 in 5 starts). In St Louis he’s 3-0, and working on a 16 consecutive inning scoreless streak at Neo-Busch. He beat Jamie Garcia in San Francisco on 23 Apr 4-1, going 7 innings, striking out 8. The Cardinals do not enjoy hitting against him (.254/.313/.333 in 125 PA), except maybe Skip Schumaker (.375/.412/.625!), with the lone HR off Lincecum on this roster.

Carp lost a tough one to Chicago last weekend snapping a personal 4-game winning streak, but he continues to pitch very well this summer. The Giants handled Chris pretty well the last time he faced them in St Louis. That game remains his only charged loss to San Francisco in his career. St Louis has won 2/3 of the games he starts against San Francisco. Again, Carp’s on a major roll right now, so I wouldn’t worry about last year’s game.

Pat Burrell, who as we mentioned above is pretty locked in right now, has owned Chris Carpenter in his career (.287/.381/1.000, 4 HR in 21 PA). The rest of the roster is a little more pedestrian (.246/.265/.451 in 102 PA).

Sunday: Barry Zito (8-7, 4.60 xFIP) vs Kyle Lohse (1-5, 5.21 xFIP). By most traditional and sabermetric measures, Barry Zito is having his finest season as a Giant. A possible reason could be his fastball is not killing him like in recent seasons. Or it could be the return of his changeup as a weapon. Zito’s fastball averages about 85MPH, and he also throws a slider, changeup, and that ridiculous 12-to-6 curveball. Zito’s second best start in 2010came at St Louis’ expense; he went 8 full and struck out 10 on that day in April. Interestingly that counts as the only time Zito beat St Louis. Random chance? Perhaps, perhaps not.

What can we say about Kyle Lohse? As predicted, he got shelled by the Small Bears, so this start can’t help but be better, right? Lohse has not faced the Giants since 2008 (a win the second week of April, against Zito of all people), and has never faced them in St Louis. As a group the current Giants are hitting .248/.295/.416 against him, which is far better than the .6oo+ OPS Chicago had put up off him. The Cardinals badly need Lohse to reprise his form of two seasons ago, and there is no time like the present to start down that road.

Prognosis. Both teams are struggling and both badly need to win this series. Based on how each pitcher has fared recently, St Louis should have the advantage on Friday and Saturday, with the Giants getting the edge on Sunday. As schizophrenic as the Cardinals have been lately, however, it is hard to predict who will win. Pencil me in as predicting the Cardinals drop 2 of three this weekend, with the clear caveat that I hope I’m wrong.

That seems to be the question lately on everyone’s mind. What do the Cardinals need to make a run at this season?

The one common theme I see out there seems to be confusion. No one is real sure what this team needs or what it will take to put things over the top. Fans say that the team needs to shake up the roster, but then complain when Ryan Ludwick gets traded. This team needs a table setter who can cause havoc at the top of the order, but fans are not ready to embrace Jon Jay. The team needs the veterans to step up and be leaders and, well, that leads us to our discussion today…

In Monday’s game against the Reds, the Cardinals took the field and prepared to play one of the biggest games put before this team this season. I will not say this game or series falls in a “must win” category, but winning the series and walking away with a tighter division race would definitely not hurt any fan’s feelings for sure. As Carpenter finished his warm up pitches and prepared to start the game, Brendan Ryan was not in position on the field. When he arrived, he then called timeout and exchanged his glove with one from the dugout, thus delaying the start of the inning further and disturbing the star pitcher’s rhythm.

After the bottom of the inning concluded and the Cardinals came into their dugout, ESPN cameras caught Carpenter leading Brendan Ryan down the corridor towards the clubhouse. While Carpenter was obscured from view, it was obvious that he was talking very sternly to the often distracted and playful Brendan Ryan. Ryan listened very intently, nodding occasionally, and the two emerged and went back to the game at hand.

Many fans saw this as over the top, flamboyant, “diva like” behavior from one of the team’s top stars. Talking with fans during the game through Twitter, I heard many voice their opinion about how it was wrong of Carpenter to do this and how it was a case of a star player putting his needs before that of the team. I am sorry, but I have to disagree.

First of all, I do not think we have anything to talk about if this is not a nationally televised game. With ESPN on hand, there are more cameras and more angles to capture the game. Due to this, the cameras caught the conversation that, in my opinion, was being conducted in an area that the players involved felt was private. This was not a manager and player coming to blows in the dugout for all to see. This was not the superstar player physically attacking the lackadaisical play of a mediocre teammate. This was a conversation had between a veteran and a young player in an area out of the public eye.

It is also important to note that Brendan Ryan, during all of his struggles, has consistently been on the filed during games that Chris Carpenter pitches. Becoming known around the Cardinal fan base as Carpenter’s “personal shortstop,” Ryan’s glove is highly valuable to the veteran groundball pitcher and has been said to have the complete support of Carpenter for a spot on the field during those games.

As fans we like to second guess our favorite players and managers. As writers, we like to dig for something more to talk about that gives us some controversy to discuss. Sometimes, however, we have to step back and realize we cannot have it both ways. If you think a roster shake up is what this team needs, then do not second guess the trading of a star outfielder. If you feel the team needs to run more, generate runs, and be more aggressive, expect the young, talented outfielder to get his chance. If you want to see someone on this teams step up and be the leader that it needs, do not be surprised when someone gets pulled aside and told to straighten up during important games.

Move along, folks, there is nothing to see here but a team that is starting to act like they want to win.