I said a couple of weeks ago that I thought the most important upcoming series on the Cardinals schedule was the 4-game set at Busch against the Giants. Check out that show here. Seeing as how that series is the one currently being played, now is hardly the time to reflect on it. The good is news is that while the Cards & Giants duke it out, the Reds & Brewers have been beating up on each other roughly 350 miles to the east. So, the standings in the National League Central remain largely unchanged over the past couple of days, and I think that even if the Cards end up losing the series to San Fransisco, all is not lost.

I cited San Fransisco’s starting rotation (to say nothing of the bearded one) & the fact that it’s 4 games, not 3, as the main reasons why this would be an important series to watch. With four games, there’s no break from facing exceptional pitching when the Giants come to town. I recall being at a game last year when we faced the (then future) World Champs, and the redbirds chased Lincecum after 5 ⅓ that night.

Photo courtesy: The City Graphics

When your team struggles to score runs off Ryan Vogelsong (1 ER Tuesday night), that makes it hard to win games. Not to take anything away from Vogelsong, he pitched well, but he’s yet to prove himself worthy of the same conversation as two-time (back-to-back) Cy Young award winner Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, and others like Sanchez and even Bumgarner. Of course, if you don’t score “early & often” it’s easy to find yourself “late & close”, as the Cardinals often have this season. Enter a three-run 8th inning rally (that included a slide into first base by Skip Schumaker), and you get an exciting comeback for a Cardinals victory.

I figure as long as the Cardinals don’t hit a long losing streak, and can keep their pace until they’re back to full health…or at least get Holliday’s bat back into the lineup, and McClellan back on the mound, they’ll be in good shape. Try to imagine the Reds in first place, losing Jay Bruce to the 15-day DL, and staying in first place during his entire stint on the DL…and what that would do to your confidence as a team in the NLC vying for that top spot in the division. Knowing they were able to defend their position without the aid of such a slugging threat in the lineup everyday would give me pause…especially once he came back. So, imagine how some might be feeling if the redbirds were able to do that during Holliday’s absence.

A closer look at the next couple of weeks for the three teams at the top of the division looks to me like opportunity served at the Cardinals’ feet, on a silver platter, with a cherry on top. I’m not saying the Cards will sweep the next 5 series’, but I am saying that each of the next 5 are definitely “sweepable”.

The upcoming schedule for the Cards, Brewers & Reds stacks up like this:

STL:
vs. CHC for 3; @ HOU for 3; @ MIL for 3; @ WAS for 3; vs. KC for 3 – very winnable series’ there, in which the Cards need to capitalize while Holliday & McClellan are out. As long as the Cardinals play their kind of baseball, and not the “playing down to the level” of bad teams, as was a huge problem last year (I still have nightmares of the 2-8 road trip to PIT, WAS, & HOU late in the season), this could be the couple of weeks that allow the team to really put some distance between themselves and the rest of the NLC. No reason the Cards can’t end this particular stretch with a dozen wins, anything short of ten and they’ve left wins on the table.

MIL:
@ FLA for 4; vs. NYM for 3; vs. STL for 3; @ CHC for 4; @ BOS for 3; vs. TB for 3 – The Brew crew is slated to face Nolasco, Volstad, Sanchez, & TBD…VERY tough pitching! Notice the 4 games in Chicago–they dodge a bullet here, as they play 3 night games, then a day game on getaway day. Usually a trip to CHC is good for jacking up your schedule, as they play so many day games, so they got lucky there. That’s good, because following that series, they head straight to Boston, which is sure to be a hard series!

CIN:
vs. LAD for 3; vs. CHC for 3; @ SF for 4; @ LAD for 3; then 3 vs. TOR & 3 vs. NYY – those are some tough games coming up for them. The 4 in San Fransisco will show the Reds very good pitching (as earlier stated, the Cards are currently seeing), and with Jose “The-Beast-Ah” bringing his Bluejays to the Great American Small Park for three before the Bronx Bombers come to Cincinnati, the Reds will have their work cut out for them.

All in all, I think the next two weeks will be a window in the season that we may all very well look back on as critical, once the calendar turns to August or September. The schedule is very favorable for the situation the redbirds are in right now, especially given MIL & CIN’s position in the standings. I realize June is a little early for “make or break” and “must win” talk, but the Cardinals really need to make the most of this opportunity. Every game won over the next couple of weeks is one that doesn’t become a “must win” come September!

The regular season will come to a close on September 28th this year, but that does not mean the month will be easy for a club that should find themselves in contention.

The Cardinals will face off against some tough division foes and some tough teams in general in September. The team will travel to Philadelphia for a four game series that may be a Divisional Series Preview. A home stand will see six games between the Cards and the Reds and Brewers in a battle for the division title. Relief may be in site the last week of the season, but teams like the Mets, Cubs and Astros always prove to be a strong foe, despite what the records show.

September Breakdown:

Total Games: 26

Home: 15

Road: 11

Vs teams with winning records in 2010: 10

Vs teams with losing records in 2010: 16

Vs teams in the NL Central: 16

Key Series:

September 2-4 vs Cincinnati – the Reds roll into town as the defending Central Division champs and both teams will try to ensure the other is buried in the standings by the end of this one. A heated rivalry that is sure to spark interest in the months leading to Fall, the two divisional favorites will converge for their final three game set to see if one of them can claim supremacy.

September 5-7 vs Milwaukee – are the Reds not enough of a threat to you? Right as they leave town, Milwaukee will square off with the Redbirds for the final time in 2011. The most improved team in the division this off-season will look to leave their mark, and hope to have their pitching staff in tact, in this early September battle for the NL Central crown.

Key To a Hot September:

Again, the Cardinals have to win the games against the weaker opponents and prove that they are a superior team. In addition, with teams like the Reds, Brewers, and Phillies on the schedule, they also need to show their dominance of those franchises and prove that they belong in the post-season discussion.

At the end of September:

If the Cardinals have 16+ wins… they are probably doing just enough to prove that they deserve the division crown and to show they belong in the playoffs. They may need to perform just a little better than this to be considered playoff contenders, though.

If the Cardinals are above .500… they are not doing enough. This team, this late in the season, needs to put the final nail in the coffin of multiple opponents to get the job done.

If the Cardinals are below .500… the only hope is that it’s 2006 all over again and they can back their way into the playoffs. I don’t see it this season, however. The team, the competition, the division is not stacked up that way.

Bill Ivie is the editor here at I-70 Baseball as well as the Assignment Editor for BaseballDigest.com.
He is the host of I-70 Radio, hosted every week on BlogTalkRadio.com.
Follow him on Twitter here.

August heats up for the Cardinals and everyone currently predicts they will still be in the hunt of things when it does.

If in fact the Cardinals do find themselves deep in the division competition, one of the predicted top of the division foes will be the Milwaukee Brewers. The two teams will surely find some separation this month as they face of eight times in the Midwest heat.

The Cardinals will also find themselves on the road for most of August and facing other division foes like the Cubs and Pirates who, despite their records, seem to do a good job of playing spoiler.

August Breakdown:

Total Games: 28

Home: 13

Road: 15

Vs teams with winning records in 2010: 10

Vs teams with losing records in 2010: 18

Vs teams in the NL Central: 18

Key Series:

August 1-3 at Milwaukee, 9-11 vs Milwaukee, 30-31 at Milwaukee – the Brewers will look to untuck the Cardinals playoff hopes before September arrives while the boys in red will attempt to prove that all the pitching help Milwaukee employed during the off-season will not help them win a pennant.

While the Brewers were the most improved team in the NL Central this off-season, many pundits question whether they did enough. Over the course of these three series in August, we should find out just what the team is made of.

August 22-24 vs Los Angeles – The boys of Dodger Blue come calling near the end of the month and may have a chip on their shoulder to prove as well. A team stuck in the middle of a youth movement and a contender, the Dodgers may or may not find themselves in the thick of things by late summer depending on who you ask. Either way, these two storied franchises will challenge the thermometer to keep up with the play on the field as they light it up for a Summer classic in St. Louis.

Key To a Hot August:

The August schedule is an interesting one. There are teams the Cardinals should, and honestly have to, beat as well as contenders and division foes. It will be a challenge for the Cardinals as the season really heats up. This is the month that lineups and rotations have to prove they are healthy and can compete as their bodies are giving out.

At the end of August:

If the Cardinals have 14+ wins… they are not playing well enough to win this division. With 18 games against teams within the division, the Cardinals have to over-achieve a bit in August.

If the Cardinals are above .500… they have a start towards a playoff run. Honestly, this team does not need to finish above .500 in August, it needs to finish well above .500 in August. Anything less than 18 wins and September will be real interesting.

If the Cardinals are below .500… the season is looking down a barrel of the nastiest kind. If this team is under-achieving to this level and expects the Pujols contract not to be a distraction, everyone is fooled. If the Cardinals want to keep Pujols on the back burner and the season in focus, they cannot lose the month of August.

Bill Ivie is the editor here at I-70 Baseball as well as the Assignment Editor for BaseballDigest.com.
He is the host of I-70 Radio, hosted every week on BlogTalkRadio.com.
Follow him on Twitter here.

July is an important month in baseball. It represents the beginning of the season’s second half. The Independence Day holiday usually features great series, especially when the Fourth falls on or near a weekend. July features the close of interleague play, the All Star Game and all its festivities, and the trade deadline. Only October can boast being a more important month on the Major League Baseball calendar.

The Cards figure to have as busy a July as ever. With the uncertainty surrounding the team after the Adam Wainwright injury and the absence of a contract extension for Albert Pujols, Cardinal Nation will be holding its collective breath as the All Star honors are bestowed and the trade deadline looms. But aside from all the pomp and circumstance—and possibly drama—don’t forget there are still games to be played…important games, actually.

July Breakdown

Total Games: 26, plus the All Star Game in Phoenix, Arizona

Home Games: 14

Away Games: 12

Vs. NL Central Teams: 16

Vs. Teams with a 2010 Winning Record: 9

Vs. Teams with a 2010 Losing Record: 17

Key Series

15th – 17th @ CIN: This is the first series after the All Star Break. The teams will be rested, the rotations will be reset, and the unofficial second half will kick off at Great American Ballpark. By this point, we should have a pretty good idea of where each team in the division belongs. If things are tight between the Cardinals and Reds (or the Cards and anyone else, or the Reds and anyone else) this series will be a tone-setter.

29th-31st vs. CHC: Come on…it’s July, it’s hot, it’s the weekend, and it’s the Cubs. Not much more to say. Grab your favorite beverage but try not to get in a fight.

Key to a Hot July

Seems redundant, eh? Seriously, the key for the Cards to have a good July is two-fold: utilize the rest afforded them by the All Star Break in the middle of the month, and take care of business against their NL Central counterparts. The Brewers are the only division foe the Cards won’t face in July, but they face the Reds in two different series. The Cards played well against all the Central teams but the Astros in 2010. But this is a different Central division, so who knows what will happen. The non-division July opponents (TB, AZ, NYM) are not good. Beat those guys, beat the Pirates, try to win series against the Reds, Astros, and Cubs, and July can be a resounding success. Make John Mozeliak need to be a buyer on the 31st.

At the end of July

If the Cardinals have 14+ wins…they may be putting themselves in position to make some noise in the divisional race during the second half. If they approach 20 July wins, we definitely have a race on our hands.
If the Cardinals are .500…they may be flirting with danger. The July schedule isn’t exactly a cakewalk, but having a ho-hum month could quickly evolve into a ho-hum or worse year. Phrases like “it’s early” and “small sample-size” no longer apply.
If the Cardinals are below .500…hold on to your hats, folks. If the Cards are out of the race by the end of July, don’t think for a second this team will be immune to personnel changes. And I’m talking BIG names. Not Pujols big…but maybe Franklin, Schumaker, and/or Carpenter big.

Chris Reed is a freelance writer who also writes for InsideSTL Mondays and at Bird Brained whenever he feels like it. Follow him on Twitter @birdbrained.

Two months into the season, the team should have established what they will be in 2011. Judging where that may or may not be is a bit premature currently but breaking down what they will face in June is worth analyzing.

An interesting month where the Cardinals will not play a single Monday game and find themselves with very few games against division foes, June will not be a month that makes or breaks this season. At the same time, games against teams that the Cardinals need to show superiority over will take place and the team will look to kill the curse of last year where they found themselves playing poorly against teams with losing records.

June Breakdown:

Total Games: 26

Home: 14

Road: 12

Vs teams with winning records in 2010: 8

Vs teams with losing records in 2010: 18

Vs teams in the NL Central: 9

Key Series:

June 3-5 vs Chicago – the loveable losers of the Chicago Northside will visit the not so friendly confines of Busch Stadium for the first time in 2011. The Cubs may not be competitors by the time they arrive in St. Louis, but that has never stopped this series from being interesting before. These two teams seem to put up classic battles on the field and in the stands every season, despite either team’s current performance. Cubs fans will surely invade Busch Stadium and Cardinal fans will surely attempt to protect their turf.

June 24-26 vs Toronto – The Blue Jays will come to town at the end of the month and be on a mission to prove that they improved enough to be contenders in 2011. The birds from North of the border will be in full swing to push forward into a hopeful playoff run and many experts think they will hang around in the American League East well into September. The Cardinals could find one of their biggest challenges of the month in this interleague matchup.

Key To a Hot June:

The Cardinals will need to improve their ability to beat the teams they should beat if they are going to be contenders this season. The month of June may be one of their biggest tests despite looking like one of their easiest months. The middle of the season can find players “going through the motions” and they will need to push through their competitive streaks to come out of the month as the front runners of the National League Central.

At the end of June:

If the Cardinals have 14+ wins… they have tread water well enough to continue to be considered a winning ball club. Most of the series this month should be a two-out-of-three win segment for the team.

If the Cardinals are .500… then they are failing to put away the teams that they simply have to beat. This team cannot be playing .500 baseball in the month of June.

If the Cardinals are below .500… then trade rumors and season ending discussions will run rampant. The team has to win in months where the schedule are laid out like it is in June. If they are not winning, there is a greater possibility of injuries or other factors off the field at play. This team is far too good to lose the month of June.

May will test the Cardinals in more than one way. The long, grueling month will only feature two off days for the club, challenging the pitching staff early on to keep things under control both in the bullpen and starting rotation. They will face off against some division foes as well as some highly favored teams from the West Coast. The team will also find themselves on the road more than they are home for the second straight month. Some key games will come in May and the Cardinals will find themselves challenged early this season.

May Breakdown:

Total Games: 29

Home: 13

Road: 16

Vs teams with winning records in 2010: 14

Vs teams with losing records in 2010: 15

Vs teams in the NL Central: 11

Key Series:

May 6-8 vs Milwaukee – The team in the Central division that everyone is talking about comes to town the first weekend in May and will pose a threat to the Cardinals. An improved rotation that should be healthy by the time this series happens will challenge the offense of the Cardinals and their ability to perform. The Brewers have drawn attention as potential contenders for 2011 and the Cardinals will get first hand knowledge as to why in this critical series for the team.

May 20-22 @ Kansas City – Of course this series is important, it is this site’s namesake. The I-70 series will be revisited as the Cardinals travel across the state to take on the Royals. Last season, the Cardinals struggled against teams with poor records and the Royals were no stranger to taking advantage of that. The “boys in blue” always give the Cardinals some headaches and the interstate rivalry promises to be heating up over the next few years as the Royals become contenders again. The Cardinals need to win games like these if they are to be competitive in 2011.

Key To a Hot Month:

The Cardinals need to stay the course through the month of May. Games against the Rockies and World Champion Giants will challenge them. Games against the Cubs, Astros and Royals have to become wins for this team to succeed. A two game set in the middle of the month against the Phillies and their monstrous pitching staff will have people saying “playoff preview” if the Cardinals are playing good baseball.

At the end of May:

If the Cardinals have 17+ wins… then they, in all honesty, have not performed as well as they need to. Seventeen wins would suggest series wins over the Marlins, Cubs, Astros, and Royals and a win in each series against the Brewers, Reds, Phillies, Padres, Rockies and Giants. The Cardinals simply must win the aforementioned series and take at least three of the later series. Anything less and everyone will simply state that the Cardinals cannot play against the other contenders of the league.

If the Cardinals are .500… fans will begin to worry. There are enough games in this month against bad ball clubs that this team simply has to post a winning record.

If the Cardinals are below .500… fans may revolt in droves and being to demand the trade of Albert Pujols. This team is built to win and in a month where they will play against teams that are expected to contend but not win and teams that are not expected to do either, they have to be able to walk away with their heads held high and in a winning situation.

Bill Ivie is the editor here at I-70 Baseball as well as the Assignment Editor for BaseballDigest.com.
He is the host of I-70 Radio, hosted every week on BlogTalkRadio.com.
Follow him on Twitter here.

Before we look ahead to April 2011, it’s important to note what happened back in April of 2010: The team was good. Good might not even do it justice, the Cardinals were great. The team won each of its first 5 series and finished the month with a record of 15-8, best in the National League. They ended up playing Cincinnati, San Francisco, and Atlanta in the opening month: 3 of the National League’s 4 eventual playoff teams. St. Louis posted a 7-4 record against those contenders, and in 2011, they’ll meet those same 3 playoff teams in the opening month again. Those eight games will be critical indicators for the direction the team is heading in this season.

April Breakdown:

Total Games: 26

Home: 11

Road: 15

Vs teams with winning records in 2010: 11

Vs teams with losing records in 2010: 15

Vs teams in the NL Central: 9

Key Series:

April 8-10 @ San Francisco – Anytime you play the defending champions is a good measuring stick for your ball club, especially when you play in their home park. The Cardinals went 3-3 against the Giants last season, with each team winning 2 out of 3 at their own park. Stealing 2 of 3 in San Francisco early in the season would be a huge lift for this team.

April 22-24 vs Cincinnati – You remember the Reds, don’t you? Brandon Phillips’ and his trash talking, and Johnny Cueto ending Jason Larue’s career in that nasty brawl in Cincinnati. Yeah, those Reds. The team that employs former Cardinals Scott Rolen and Walt Jocketty, and is managed by former Cubs manager, Dusty Baker. Its the team that took the 2010 Central Division Title away from the Cardinals. And come late April, it will be time for some long overdue payback.

Key To a Hot Start:

The Cardinals finished last season 86-76, good for 2^nd in the NL Central and 5 games behind the Cincinnati Reds. A big reason St. Louis came up short in the standings last year was its lackluster play against teams with losing records, especially late last season. Dating back to late August, the team has a record of 7-18 against teams with losing records. So while it would be nice to steal 2 out of 3 from the Giants, Padres, Reds, and Braves, the teams needs to make sure and beat up on the Pirates, Diamondbacks, Nationals, and Astros.

At the end of April:

If the Cardinals have 15+ wins… they’re preforming beyond expectations. Even with a potentially “soft” early schedule, the team has 15 of its 26 games on the road. Without Adam Wainwright, 15 or more wins would have people talking up Tony La Russa as an early “Manager of the Year” candidate.

If the Cardinals are .500… I think most fans would hope for more, but all in all be satisfied.

If the Cardinals are below .500… most fans would either be in full-blown panic mode or will consider giving up on the season. We all know in the back of our minds that this is an uphill climb. Last year, the Cardinals had a terrific rotation anchored by 2 perennial Cy Young candidates and a lineup featuring Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday…but they still missed the playoffs. With the Reds stronger and the Cardinals weaker, a bad start to the year could be an early sign that it’s going to be a long summer in St. Louis.