St. Louis Cardinal fans are seemingly obsessed over former players.  Brendan Ryan, Rick Ankiel and Lance Berkman have all been on fans’ minds throughout the season.

Tyler Greene?  Not so much.

The middle infielder, who many believe cracked under the pressure that Tony LaRussa placed on him while they were both in uniform for the Cardinals, found himself on the outside looking in after a weak spring training with the Houston Astros.  He was released from his contract prior to opening day and he drifted off into oblivion.  Or Chicago.  Same thing in most people’s minds.

Tyler Greene is a Chicago White Sox infielder.  That news was a surprise to me as I read a recent article over at the St. Louis Sports Page about former Cardinals and how they are performing.  I had not heard anyone talking about him.  No fans rumbling about his arrival in the big leagues when Gordon Beckham went down hurt.  No sudden jubilation when he signed a contract with the pale hose on April 1st.

Surprisingly, not even a blurb on the internet when Greene went yard on April 26.

Greene is playing well in Chicago in very limited duty.  He has produced a .276/.323/.483 slashline in 29 at bats, producing a single home run and two runs batted in while scoring four times.  He has entered the game as a pinch runner or pinch hitter almost as many times (5) as he has on the field as a second baseman (6).  He has yet to attempt to steal a base and has committed one error in 29 chances.

Tyler Greene is a bench player in major league baseball, continuing to patrol the middle infield and run the base paths.  Leaving St. Louis has not injected his career with a sudden level of success.  The absence of Tony LaRussa has not allowed Greene to improve to the level that everyone thought.

Even so, it appears that no one cares.

Bill Ivie is the editor here at i70baseball.
You can follow him on Twitter by clicking here.

The St. Louis Cardinals entered this off season with a glaring need: Adam Wainwright‘s contract will expire after this season.

The Cardinals have been down this road before and, while the results were a little less then ideal, they have shown that they can continue to be successful after losing a superstar type player.  The situations are obviously not identical, but they are similar enough that many fans have kept a skeptical eye on the situation this spring.

Both the Cardinals and Wainwright have expressed no desire to put a deadline on these talks.  At the same time, Wainwright has been very candid that his increased health and productivity is not likely to drive his price down anytime soon.  The team has expressed a desire to see him in action and there seems to be a sticking point surrounding the length of the contract according to many people close to the negotiations.  Both sides have expressed recently that having a deal complete before Opening Day is ideal, though not a hard and fast deadline.

A brief silver lining has found it’s way through, however.  Recently, Wainwright’s agent, Steve Hammond, was out of the country and unavailable to the negotiations.  He recently returned from his vacation and it appears that the two sides have reopened the discussion.

Cardinals General Manager John Mozeliak was on MLB Network Radio on SirusXM recently and had the following to say to Jim Duquette and Mike Ferrin:

“Right now, I feel pretty optimistic that we’re going to find a way to get things done, but there are still challenges. But from my end of things, the fact that Steve Hammond and I are speaking is a good thing.”
Thanks to MLBTR for the quote, originally seen here.

It appears that the conversations are fluid and growing closer to a resolution.  As long as the sides continue to have conversations, it is fair to say that they are making progress towards a new contract.

For Cardinal fans, that would seem to be a real good thing.

Bill Ivie is the editor here at i70baseball.
You can follow him on Twitter by clicking here.

St. Louis Cardinal fans and beat writers jumped quickly to the conclusion that Shelby Miller was “out of the competition” for a spot in the opening rotation due to reported shoulder stiffness on Wednesday.

News broke across the internet out of Jupiter, Florida on Wednesday that 22 year old Cardinal prospect Shelby Miller had sat out throwing drills on Wednesday with “shoulder tightness” according to the team.  Fans held their breath and pundits declared that the three way competition between Miller, Trevor Rosenthal and Joe Kelly for the final rotation spot was now down to two.

It did not seem to matter that manager Mike Matheny downplayed the problem saying that the team was not concerned about it.  No matter that the tightness appeared overnight and the righty did not feel any pain when he was throwing on Tuesday.  Never mind that the pitcher himself said that he would be back by the end of the week.  A fanbase that is still reeling from the loss of Chris Carpenter was ready to hit the panic button.

Thursday morning came and the team announced that Miller had been cleared to throw.  While they would continue with a conservative path and not push the hurler into games this weekend, there are no restrictions on the young man at this point and they expect him to be in game action early next week.

The fifth spot in the rotation is still up for grabs and is still locked into a three-way battle between some very exciting, young arms.

Don’t count Shelby Miller out just yet.

The Seattle Mariners extended Felix Hernandez‘s contract on Thursday and many St. Louis Cardinal fans reacted quickly, feeling Adam Wainwright‘s price tag just went up.  The problem with that thought is simple, Hernandez is no Wainwright, he’s much, much better.

Hernandez agreed to a deal that will keep him in Seattle for a reported financial windfall to the tune of seven years and $175 million.

That is not to say that Adam Wainwright is not a very good pitcher, we all know that he is.  It is not to say that Adam Wainwright will not be a very wealthy man when his contract is resolved, he most likely will.  But to say that Wainwright’s price will be based off of Hernandez’s price is a bit absurd.

Both of them debuted in the same year for the team they still play for, the Mariners and Cardinals respectively, and both were due to hit free agency at the same time, after the 2013 season.  That is where the comparisons end, however.

We can start with the obvious point of age.  Hernandez (26) is five years a junior to Wainwright (31).  If you are giving a seven year deal to a pitcher, you would do so to a pitcher Hernandez’s age, not Wanwright’s.  Beyond that, Hernandez has not spent any significant time on the disabled list, has substantially better career numbers, and has earned many more accolades than his St. Louis counterpart.

That graph shows two very good pitchers.  It also shows one with an injury history, that is older, and is not quite on the same level.

Hernandez translated his career into a $25 million a year payout.  Wainwright will probably look to translate his into $20 million a year for a much shorter period of time.

Calm down, Cardinal Fans, the price of King Felix had little to no impact on the cost of Adam Wainwright.  That price was set before and I highly doubt it moved at all with this news.

Bill Ivie is the editor here at I-70 Baseball
Follow him on Twitter here.

The six-hour, 19-inning marathon that took place on Sunday was just another kink in the chain that is the 2012 St. Louis Cardinals’ season. The Cardinals’ heart of the order, the one so dominant when they are all hitting well, was a combined 2 for 22.Matt Holliday was 0 for 7, Carlos Beltran 2 for 7 and David Freese 0 for 8.   A game that saw Jaime Garcia dominate in his return from an arm injury, looking like the Garcia of 2010, was marred by poor offense and some strange decision-making.

St. Louis had chance after chance to end the game with a W. The biggest opportunity came in the 17th. Skip Schumaker‘s single to center, the one that Andrew McCutchen bobbled, turned out to be the deciding moment of the game. Had Schumaker seen McCutchen fumble the ball and advanced to 2nd as Cutch threw to 3rd, Jon Jay”s base hit likely would’ve been the game-winning hit.

But, instead of a wild and entertaining 17-inning win, Cardinal fans find themselves talking about a heartbreaking 19-inning loss. Instead of being tied for the second Wild Card spot, St. Louis remains two games back of Pittsburgh.

Manager Mike Matheny is right when he said earlier this week that the team is struggling to get the one timely hit that can get the Cardinals a victory. The Cardinals’ offense may be the best in the league statistically, but it also one of the streakiest in baseball. Take the 8-2 win over San Francisco on August 6th, for example. Two days later, the Cardinals were embarrassed by the Giants in a 15-0 loss.

The Cards have had a string of rough losses as of late. The blown save by closer Jason Motte on Thursday and struggling offense on Friday led to two very frustrating one-run losses. St. Louis is 13-21 in one-run games in 2012. By comparison, Cincinnati is 20-17, while Pittsburgh is 25-20. With Sunday’s extra inning loss, the Cardinals’ record in such games fell to 3-9. The Pirates are now 4-0 in extras, while the Reds are 4-5.

Starting with tonight’s game against the Astros, the Redbirds will play 16 straight games before their next off day. Ten of them will be on the road – against the division-leading Reds, Pirates, and NL East-leading Nationals respectively. This stretch – particularly the games on the road – will likely determine whether the team will have what it takes to make the playoffs, or roll over and be watching from home once the regular season ends.

In order for the Cards to prove themselves, they must get everything clicking at once. That means that the heart of the order must get out of their respective slumps, the bullpen must right the ship, the offense must be consistent, and Motte needs to return to his old self. In addition, the team must win more one-run ballgames and win more in extras. It might be too much to ask at this point in the season. The Cards were able to find their way late last year, however, and have to do that if they want to play baseball in October.

Last year, St. Louis pulled off an improbable feat. The circumstances in 2012 are not near what they were a season ago, but some of that magic needs to rub off on this team. It’s not necessarily time to panic just yet, but time is running out. The good news is, the Cards have all the tools. All we can do now is just watch and wait.

Cardinal fans team up to beat human trafficking
Every time the Cardinals win a game, fans now have a new way to make a difference in the world. A new donation platform called Snoball is uniting baseball fans to fight human trafficking.

The idea is simple. Every time the Cardinals win a game, a fan donates $0.25. The money benefits Not For Sale, an organization that exists to end present day slavery.

There are more victims of human trafficking today than any other point in history–nearly 30 million. These victims are raped, abused, and even murdered by their abductors.  Of the victims, 70 percent are women and 50 percent are children.

It’s easy to give. Just visit http://tinyurl.com/gostlcards, click the donate now button, and sign in with your Facebook account.

After donating, fans are encouraged to share the “Let’s Re-Abolish Slavery” snoball on Facebook and Twitter using the hashtag #cardsunite.  Cardinals fans can prove, once and for all, they are the greatest baseball fans on the planet.

Imagine the difference we can make just by cheering on our favorite baseball team. Every quarter donated makes a dent in the world’s third largest illegal industry–human trafficking. If 1000 fans donate $0.25, just one Cardinals win would represent enough money raised to free 3 people from slavery.

Baseball fans can also help Not For Sale by joining Matt Holliday and Jaime Garcia of the Cardinals. They are part of a special Facebook application called Free2Play.  It allows users to create donations based on statistics of their favorite players. All money raised helps Not For Sale prevent the human trafficking of children.

For additional questions or comments, contact jason@snoball.com (Twitter: @jasonpoemusic)

About Snoball:
Snoball is a micro-donation platform that makes charitable giving easy, social, and fun.  Users can instantly donate to over 1.7 million nonprofits through customizable “snoballs.” Snoballs are automated donations based on a user’s interests.  An example snoball could be defined as:  “When Matt Holliday hits a home run, I will donate $1 to the American Red Cross.”

For more information about Snoball, visit https://snoball.com

About Not For Sale:
Not for Sale creates tools that engage business, government, and grassroots in order to incubate and grow social enterprises to benefit enslaved and vulnerable communities.

For more information about Not For Sale, visit http://notforsalecampaign.org

There is a famous line in the film A League of Their Own where Tom Hank’s character says, “Crying… Are you crying? There’s no crying in baseball.” I have always remembered that line. For some reason, a slight variation of that popped into my head when I read yesterday’s Post-Dispatch article about Mike Matheny. “Sleeping…Are you sleeping? There’s no sleeping in baseball”.

Matheny was too excited to sleep before his first Grapefruit League game as a manager. He decided to pop out of bed at 3 am and was at the park a little after 4 that morning. It reminded me the St. Louis Cardinals went from the game’s most experienced manager to its least within a few weeks of winning the 2011 World Series. While it is too early for any kind of “spring training report card”, I do want to make some early observations regarding the Matheny era, and pose some questions as to what Cardinal fans should keep on their radar early in the season. After all, a two-year contract does not leave a lot of time for learning on the job.

I have generally had good feelings about the Matheny hire. Mozeliak had been grooming him for the position, and Mozeliak certainly has earned the benefit of the doubt on big decisions like this. Matheny seems to be doing all the right things early on in the job; consulting the right people, reaching out to the players, reaching out to former (and estranged) Cardinal legends. He has provided a smiling face to the media, which is certainly a welcome change.

He faces a lot of challenges as well. As previously alluded to, he does not have a lot of time to earn his stripes – losing will not be tolerated with the Cardinals 2012 roster. If the team is hovering around .500 at the All-Star break, you can bet there will be some fans calling for his job. Despite losing Albert Pujols, Dave Duncan, and Tony LaRussa, the general consensus in Cardinal Nation is that the 2012 team is better on paper than the championship 2011 team due to the addition of Carlos Beltran and the return of Adam Wainwright. There is a lot of pressure on Matheny.

Something I have encouraged people to keep a close eye on is the Cardinals first twenty-seven games of the 2012 season. After Opening Day with the Marlins, the Cardinals play twenty-six consecutive games against the NL Central (ranked the worst division in baseball). The schedule is kind to Matheny this season, as interleague play pits the Cardinals against the second weakest division in baseball, the AL Central. While that seems to be an advantage, I put a lot of importance on the early games for so many reasons, not the least of which is Matheny setting the tone for his managerial reign.

Here are a few early observations.

1. Matheny runs a tight ship. The practice schedule runs on airport time. Matheny does not round to the nearest five minutes. If you are a pitcher you better be ready for you session to start at 9:38 am, because that is when the skip has it scheduled.

2. Matheny puts emphasis on player development in spring training. Look at the number of at-bats and innings pitched already for the younger prospects in the first two games of the spring. More than that, I was intrigued at how Matheny worked the prospects into the hitting and pitching groups during the first two weeks of spring training. LaRussa seemed to have a more “show me what you can do” approach in spring training, where he got his key guys a lot of reps and let everyone else try to earn a shot. Matheny is putting a bigger emphasis on the organization’s responsibility to develop the next wave of players that can contribute at the major-league level. Could you imagine LaRussa putting Tyrell Jenkins in Chris Carpenter‘s throwing group on the first day of camp?

3. Matheny is a “hands-on” manager. LaRussa would typically watch Grapefruit League games from just outside the dugout. Matheny is inside the dugout, working and instructing the team. Matheny is out on the field throwing batting practice.

Some intriguing questions to be answered.

1. Game management

How will he use his bullpen when the games really count? What kind of pitch count will the starters be on? Will he bunt and steal? I hear mixed reports. On the one hand, I see where he is working with the team on better base running and stealing, and that he wants to better utilize the bunt and hit-and-run. On the other hand, I hear how he is going to use advanced metrics much more than LaRussa did. In Sabermetricville, bunting is a crime unlike any other….never, never, never give up outs. How will Matheny manage moving runners over in traditional sacrifice situations.

2. Handling veteran players

This, in my opinion, is his greatest challenge as a manager. He is not only managing a lot of guys close to his own age, he is managing some former teammates as well. Will he command the respect of the clubhouse or be a “player’s manager”? Is it possible for him to be both in his first year? Will the veterans show him the same level of respect they showed LaRussa. It is hard to move from a friend and a peer to a boss.

Yadier Molina‘s quote yesterday about Matheny getting to the park so early, was very interesting to me. He said, “It’s OK if he gets a little nervous. I get nervous, too, every time”. I certainly could be reading too much into that, but that is not a comment I would make about or to my boss. Again, I know it is a stretch to read anything into that one comment, but it got me thinking about the relationship between Matheny and the veteran players. If they ever get the sense that Matheny is just Mozeliak’s puppet, he could have a very hard time keeping control of the clubhouse.

With all of that being said, I do expect Matheny to be successful. I want him to be successful. He is a great baseball mind, a hard worker, a man of great integrity, and someone that cares deeply about carrying on the Cardinal Way. He seems to have enough fortitude to handle criticism and the constant questions regarding his experience.

Watching the first two games of spring did cause me to think a lot about the new manager and his role. It really sunk in that someone new is calling the shots from the dugout, and we do not quite have a blueprint for their game management style. While there is uncertainty still in so many areas, one thing is for sure…Matheny is not sleeping on the job.

A man who wears a mask the majority of the time we see him may have just become the new face of the St. Louis Cardinals franchise.

Yadier Molina, who broke into the big leagues with the Cardinals back in 2004, will keep the bird on the bat logo across his chest through the 2017 season, with an option for 2018, at which time Molina would be 36 years old. The five-year extension is expected to pay the game’s best defensive catcher $75 million dollars, with a $15 million option for a 6^th year.

And with that, Cardinals fans, you can drop your guards. You will not have to spend the next 10 months fretting over whether or not another one of St. Louis’ baseball icons will leave the team at the altar.

In the wake of Albert Pujols’ abrupt move to the Los Angeles Angels, Cardinals general manager, John Mozeliak, insists he didn’t feel any added pressure to get a deal done for Molina. If he really didn’t, he probably should have. Molina is the single most admired, appreciated, and beloved member of the Cardinals organization right now. Cardinals fans in minor league cities from Palm Beach to Memphis watched him grow up. Fans in St. Louis watched him persevere at the plate, where he started his first season as the Cardinals’ starter in an 0 for 25 slump before eventually breaking through. His confidence at the plate continued to rise, and eventually Molina turned himself from an offensive liability into one of the best hitting catchers in the game today. In 2011, he hit .305 with a career high 14 HRs and 65 RBI.

Along the way, Molina provided Cardinal fans with exhilarating moments, from game-changing pickoff throws to his game-winning home run in the 9^th inning of Game 7 in the 2006 NLCS. Molina has been a key part of two World Series Championship teams, and is a four-time Gold Glove.

With Tony La Russa and Albert Pujols out of the picture, this is now Molina’s team. He and Chris Carpenter share the title as longest tenured Cardinal, both joining the team in 2004. But Carpenter is in the twilight of his career, and his current 2-year deal may very well be his last.

So yes, he wears a mask, but Yadi is the new face of the franchise.

The St. Louis Cardinals are all in training camp and preparing for the 2012 season! Those are sweet, sweet words for Cardinal fans all over the world. This is the time of year where every team has hope for the upcoming season, and the joy of baseball fandom is at its highest. As has been much discussed on this site, there are a lot of questions the Cardinals face as they approach a new season: new manager, new pitching coach, no Albert Pujols at first base, ace pitcher (Adam Wainwright) returning after a missed year following Tommy John surgery, Yadier Molina entering final year of his contract, Lance Berkman moving to first base, David Freese trying to stay healthy for a full season, Tyler Greene trying to win the second base job, Allen Craig trying to get back on the field, Shelby Miller and Matt Adams trying to crack the big league roster, Carlos Beltran first season with the Birds, Holliday moving into the 3 spot in the batting order…have I left anything out?

News broke out of Jupiter earlier this week that the Cardinals and Yadier Molina are very close on a 5-year extension for a reported $70-75 million. As of the writing of this article, the deal has yet to be completed or finalized. Molina’s contract situation begs the question of just who would replace Molina should he leave after the 2012 season? Would it come from within the organization or outside the organization? This article will look at the three catchers in the Cardinal system that would be next in-line should Molina leave, or perhaps more importantly (based on news of a deal being close for Molina), which guy could provide serviceable backup starts when Molina needs a rest.

Bryan Anderson is a 25-year old catcher that was drafted by the Cardinals in the 4th round of the 2005 amateur draft. Anderson made his big-league debut in 2010 and has seen only 32 at-bats. He has played time at the AAA level all the way back to 2008. His batting average in the minors is .281 and he has hit between 3-12 home runs each season. While not a home run hitter, he does swing a pretty good bat with gap power that can produce a lot of doubles. Scouts say Anderson is athletic with good bat-speed and plate discipline. He has a quick release from behind the plate but only average arm strength. His blocking and receiving also need some work before he is major-league ready. He certainly has the right coach to help him in manager Mike Matheny, but he appears to be a guy that could get squeezed out of an MLB opportunity. He’s  not a good enough defender (yet) to play catcher but not enough of a power bat to become a DH.

Tony Cruz is also a 25-year old catcher. He was signed by the Cardinals in the 27th round of the 2007 amateur draft. Like Anderson, Cruz does not have many major league at-bats. Unlike Anderson, he was not drafted as a catcher. Cruz was drafted as a 3B, but was moved behind the plate because of his strong arm. His only time up in the big show came in 2011 when he accumulated 72 plate appearances in 38 games. Cruz stayed in the low minors longer than Anderson. He did not reach the AAA level until 2010.

Part of his development will be improving his slow release behind the plate (if only we could combine Anderson’s release and Cruz’s arm strength). Unfortunately, Cruz is a mediocre offensive weapon. His minors slash line is .264/.319/.414 and his AAA slash line is .232/.295/.389. He is a singles hitter that struggles to make consistent contact.

Koyie Hill was signed by the Cardinals to a minor-league contract during the 2012 off-season. Hill is 32 years old, was drafted by the Dodgers organization in the 4th round of the 2000 draft. He played sparingly at the big league level from 2003-2008. Then he played in 83, 77, and 46 games during the 2009-2011 seasons. Most of his playing time was received when Geovany Soto went down with injuries.

Hill was given playing time for his defensive abilities much more so than his offensive capabilities. Hill struggles to make contact, has a ground ball rate over 50%, and does not have a good eye at the plate (quite the combination). His best major league year season at the plate was 2009 when he hit .237 with with 2 HRs and 24 RBIs in 253 plate appearances. 2009 also marked the most plate appearances Hill has seen in a season to this point in his career.

A deeper look at these catcher’s skill sets and numbers makes it understandable why the Cardinals are willing to throw the years and dollars at Molina that is being reported. I did not even touch on all the intangibles a catcher brings to the team outside of the sheer numbers. The way Molina handles pitchers will ease the transition from Duncan to Lilliquist. The way he throws runners out and keeps runners from attempting to steal will keep many runs off the scoreboard. He is the guy you want behind the plate to groom Shelby Miller, Carlos Martinez, and others in the coming seasons. Those who would call a five-year contract to Molina foolish must not fully understand all the intangibles he brings to the team that truly make a difference in the standings at the end of the year.

Another exciting aspect to Molina is that 2011 was his most productive season at the plate. For whatever reason, a lot of catchers are late bloomers offensively, and Molina was no exception. In 2011, Molina batted .304 with 14 HRs and 65 RBIs. He has excellent discipline at the plate, drives the ball well to the opposite field, and makes contact over 90% of the time. His numbers are trending in such a way that I would not put a .300-20-80 season beyond him in any of the next three seasons.

There is one last factor to take into consideration. In this age of advanced metrics, we sometimes reduce a players worth to numbers on a page. It has been a long time since I have seen a Cardinal play the game of baseball with more passion than Yadier Molina. The Cardinals need him in the clubhouse if for no other reason than that. Passion is contagious.

If for some reason, the deal does not get done with the Cardinals and Molina, you have to believe the club would look outside the organization for a starting catcher. At 25, Anderson and Cruz have time to continue to develop, but nothing they have done to this point in their careers lead you to believe they would be the long-term answer.

This writer hopes Molina wears the Birds on the Bat for years to come. Let’s make it happen Mo!

Albert Pujols should have a monster 2012 season for the Anaheim Angels. Is it a guarantee? No. Is it very likely? Yes. Overall, I have been very impressed with Cardinal Nation’s response to Pujols heading out west. On one end of the spectrum are the fans who say they are taking the logical approach and applaud Cardinal management for not offering a huge 10-year contract. On the other end, are the fans who burned his jersey and anxiously await their opportunity to find his statue unguarded. Both the “we don’t need him” and “I hate him” attitudes are different expression of the same feeling of rejection. But you’ve already read that article. Oblige me a few minutes to prepare you as to what you should see from Pujols in 2012, and what that means to the Cardinals and their fans.

First, a general observation…those who have followed Pujols over the last 11 seasons know that he always plays better when he feels he has something to prove. At 32,  he is at the tail-end of the prime of his career, but…he is still in his prime. Remember the 2008 season, when Pujols was the last standing member of the MV3 playing for St. Louis and the second best hitter in the lineup was Ryan Ludwick?

2008 Season

AB         R            H           2B       HR        RBI         BB        SO     SB       AVG         OBP       SLG         OPS

524       100      187       44       37          116        104     54      7         .357         .462      .653       1.114

Not shabby.

Remember Game 3 of the 2011 World Series? Pujols heard all the critics who said he had never done much of anything in his three World Series appearances. He proceeded to unleash 3 HRs, 5 hits, 4 Runs, and 6 RBIs.

You may be thinking, all that is well and good, but what about his three-year decline from 2009-2011? Yes, Pujols did experience a noticeable drop in HR, RBIs, walks, BA, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage over that three-year period. Even with the decline, he remained an elite hitter. And do not forget about the great second half numbers he posted last year.

After coming back from wrist surgery, Pujols posted the following stat line.

AB         R            H           2B       HR        RBI         BB        SO        SB       AVG         OBP       SLG         OPS

299       53         95          18       20          54            27       33       4         .318          .378     .579         .957

Again, the point of this article is not to prove to you that Pujols is a good hitter. The purpose is to prepare you for a huge year from Pujols in 2012. Here is the biggest reason why…each ball Pujols puts in play has a 5% better chance of being a hit at Angels Stadium than at Busch Stadium, and each fly ball has a 27% better chance of being a homerun. (I used the 2009-2011 ballpark tendencies chart from baseballhq.com for these numbers). Said another way, Angels Stadium produces the league-average number of hits and home runs for right-handed batters. Busch Stadium decreases right-handed batting average 5% and right-handed home runs 27% more than the average MLB park. Busch Stadium is a much more pitcher-friendly park than most people realize. Pujols hit 10 fly balls last season that were outs in Busch Stadium, that would have been home runs in LA.

Quick side note: Ballpark factor makes the offensive numbers the Cardinals put up in 2011 that much more impressive.

I hope I have proven my point that Pujols is on track for a big 2012 season. What does this mean to Cardinals fans?

First, on an emotional level, being able to come to terms with this fact. I am not one that wishes bad performance on Pujols because he left the team I cheer for.

Second, even as you watch Pujols put up big numbers, realize the Cardinals made a smart baseball decision for the long-term, and made smart decisions with the money freed up for 2012. Long-term it is easy to see how the Cardinals would have been severely handcuffed paying Pujols 22-25 million during his age 38-41 seasons, when production will most certainly substantially decline. But I want to focus on the 2012 season and why Cardinals fans should not be worried.

Pujols had a 5.1 WAR (wins above replacement) in 2011. When he signed elsewhere, the Cards re-signed Rafael Furcal and Carlos Beltran. Beltran certainly would not have happened with Pujols still on the team, and Furcal is unlikely. While Furcal only a 0.5 WAR during an injury-shortened 2011, he posted 4.2 and 3.5 the two seasons prior. Here are the WAR numbers for Theriot, Schumaker, and Descalso over the last two seasons (the three guys who would most likely have seen most of the playing time at SS).

Schumaker   0.6, -0.2    Theriot  .07, -0.1  Descalso  0.5, 0.4.

Tyler Greene has a lot of potential upside but has yet to produce at the major-league level.

If Furcal returns to career-average production, the Cardinals gain 3 to 4 WAR at shortstop by not re-signing Pujols.

Beltran posted a 4.7 WAR last season, just 0.4 below Pujols. Adam Wainwright put up 5.7 WAR in 2009 and 6.1 in 2010. I think you are starting to see my point. On paper, the Cardinals not matching the Angels offer to Pujols along with the return of Adam Wainwright, puts a better team on the field for 2012 than 2011. Throw in the fact that the team plays 92 of their 162 games against the bottom two divisions in baseball (AL and NL Central), and there is a lot to be optimistic about heading into spring training.

Cardinal fan, please remember these things when you watch Albert do what only he can do in another uniform for the first time.