Last week we took a look at 23 year-old lefty Danny Duffy, and his prospects for a breakout season in 2012. The article was filled with optimism and antidotes that suggested Duffy may be ready to burst onto the scene for the Kansas City Royals. After his first outing in Spring Training, I was tempted to expand on those thoughts and the meaning of such an impressive start until I read this Rany Jazayerli piece. I think it’s fair to say that most of us are now excited by Duffy’s future, and the future is 2012. That did set me on a different path though, wondering if there were any others on the Royals staff poised for a breakout year. If you read this, then you probably know who I’m referring to; Cool Hand Luke.

For a guy with a career ERA north of 5 Luke Hochevar has a career highlight reel that would make just about any 5th year player proud:

• May 14, 2008 In just his 6th career start, Hochevar throws 6 shutout innings, striking out 5 and allowing just 4 hits.
• June 12, 2009 Hochevar holds the Cincinnati Reds to just 3 hits and 1 run in first career complete game. More impressive, he completes the feat in just 80 pitches.
• July 25, 2009 Hochevar strikes out 13 and walks 0 in 7 innings of work against the powerful Texas Rangers.
• September 18, 2009 Hochevar throws his first shutout against the Chicago White Sox. He strikes out 5 and allows only 4 base runners in the game.
• April 7, 2010 In 7 2/3 innings against the Detroit Tigers Hochevar allows 5 hits, 1 BB, and zero runs.
• May 19., 2011 Facing the eventual American League Champions Hochevar nearly goes the distance. In the end he delivers 8 2/3 inning of 1-run baseball on a night when the Royals win 2-1.
• September 3, 2011 Hochevar ended 2011 on a hot streak, but none of his performances down the stretch were better than this one against the Indians; 8 innings, 8 Ks, 1 BB and no runs.

What’s most astonishing to me, is that there are no trends represented in the data above. It’s not like he dominates early in the year and then wears down. It also isn’t a case where Hochevar just needs a few months to warm up this year. He has, over the course of 4 years, spread in completely random order a very impressive compilation of starts. Of course, the rest of the time he’s been pretty terrible. What does this mean? If anyone had the answer to that it would probably be fixed by now but at 28 years old there is still reason to believe that Hochevar could put it all together for a very dominant 2012.

It does seem odd that the St. Louis Cardinals are willing to send do-everything pitcher Kyle McClellan somewhere else.  He’s a local boy.  He moved through the ranks as a starting pitcher but willingly switched to the bullpen to help the big club, becoming a dependable late-innings guy.  Last season, after Adam Wainwright went down, he willingly switched back to the rotation and was very effective as a starter before getting hurt.

In this day and age, selfless players are hard to come by.  So why give that up?  Maybe because he’s the most expensive pitcher in the bullpen, and other than JC Romero he’s the closest guy to free agency (McClellan’s last arbitration year is next year).  It’s hard to believe a team that saved $210 million this off-season would need to cut payroll, but here we are.

Reporting on interest in McClellan has named Baltimore, San Diego and Arizona as potential suitors.  Since the Cardinals reportedly are not looking to take on any salary in a trade for Kyle, he would have to be moved for prospects.  With that as the goal, St Louis should send him to San Diego for a minor-league catcher.

San Diego has Nick Hundley starting, and although he’s not Johnny Bench he’s not Bob Uecker either.  Hundley, coming off a breakout season in 2011, is not going anywhere other than behind the plate at Petco.  For the last few years the Padres have suffered from a dearth of catching depth in their system.  They have been aggressive in fixing that over the last 12 months.  They grabbed Austin Hedges, widely considered the best defensive catcher in last year’s draft, in the second round.  Hedges has some work to do at the plate but his defense is close to major league ready now.  The club also insisted Cincinnati include Yasmani Grandal in the Mat Latos trade.  Grandal, a Cuban emigre, has plus power behind the plate; he rose rapidly through the Cincinnati system in 2011.  Suddenly the Padres are very deep behind the plate; recently Fangraphs called Grandal and Hedges the #2 and #5 prospects, respectively, in the San Diego system.

Back to the Cardinals.  Who do they have behind Yadier Molina?  The depth chart currently lists Tony Cruz as his back-up, and Bryan Anderson shows up on the 40-man.  Anderson has been with the organization since the 2005 draft, but has only made a cup-of-coffee appearance with the big club (2010).  Why Anderson has spent the last 4 years in AAA can partially be explained by a perceived unwillingness on Tony LaRussa’s part to play him.  With Don Tony retired Anderson may get another chance.  Cruz has been in the St Louis organization two fewer years than Anderson and has almost twice as many plate appearances, all of which came last year.  He proved he can hit major league pitching down the stretch as the Cardinals charged into the playoffs.  However I don’t believe we can call either of them the long-term solution behind the plate; they may ultimately be a stop-gap to get the Cardinals to their next catcher.

Grandal is 23 and Hedges 18.  Either of them would be an excellent long-term replacement behind the plate for Molina, and neither one is expensive.  St Louis should trade McClellan to San Diego.

I want to be as clear as possible from the start: I am a huge Alex Gordon fan. I was there before the Kansas City Royals even drafted him, watching You Tube clips of that dreamy swing and praying Allard Baird didn’t mess up the chance to draft the prodigy that was Awesome Alex.

Alex Gordon courtesy of Minda Haas

I was also there on Opening Day, with the bases loaded, a sell-out crowd on its feet, and expectations very few would have any chance of meeting. My wife has his jersey, my kid has his rookie card…our family is all-in on Awesome Alex. That being said, I do have to wonder; is now really the time to give him a contract extension?

For a Royals’ fan, this question may seem equivalent to blasphemy. We waited so long for him to become what we’d dreamed he could. We went through ridiculously long slumps, excruciating injuries, broken promises and position changes. So before I go any further, I want to say I am not questioning if the Royals should extend Gordon at some point. I hope Gordon is a Royal for life and proves to be every bit the savior we anointed him back in 2007. But think back just 12 months ago, before his breakout season of 2011. Gordon was on his last leg and it would not have been completely absurd to suggest the Royals give up on him ever becoming the player they’d drafted him to be. Then came the declaration. Many scoffed and almost all of us felt uneasy when Gordon told the world he planned to “dominate” in 2011, but then he went out and did it. Gordon in 2011 was everything we’d hoped he’d be from the beginning. I don’t think I need to recite his statistics any more than they already have been but just consider a couple:

- His 140 OPS+ was the highest by a Royals’ everyday player in 10 years

- His 5.9 WAR (per baseballreference.com’s metrics) was the highest in 8 years

- He not only won a Gold Glove but actually received 3 votes on the MVP ballot, for a team that lost 91 games

- He set career highs in every single major offensive category

That seems like a good time to stop, because it brings me precisely to the root of my question. Did Alex Gordon just have a breakout season or a career year? Baseball history is full of players who have put together seasons as good as, and much better than, Gordon without ever really coming close to repeating the performance. Even Royals history has a few shining examples. Of the 11 Royals to put up an OPS + of 140 or better, only 4 (George Brett, Danny Tartabull, Hal McRae, Willie Aikens) did it more than once. The other 8?

Amos Otis – 31
Mike Sweeney – 28
Bob Hamelin – 26
Bo Jackson – 27
Darrell Porter – 27
Wilson Betemit – 28
Richie Schleinblum* – 29

*Schleinblum may be worthy a post of his own some day. He put up his 140 OPS in 1972 in the only season in which he was ever given more than 500 at bats. He also made the All Star game that year. He was then sent to the Reds as part of the Hal McRae deal, traded to the Angels 6 months later for a PTBNL, and traded back to the Royals in ’75 for Paul Schaal. From 1970-1975 Schleinblum played for the Indians, Senators, Royals, Reds, Angels, Royals, and Cardinals.

The numbers you see by the players’ names are their age when they had their career year. Notice how none of the one-timers are under 26? All of the players to do it more than once were 26 or younger, other than McRae. Does this mean Alex Gordon, who was 27, will never put up another season this good? No, not at all, but I do think it points out the probability is better that he just had his career season.

This matters for many reasons, most notably being that the Royals really don’t need to be in the business of signing players to multiple year deals based on the numbers put up in their career year. I expect Gordon to be a good player this year and moving forward, but I don’t expect him to do as well, relatively, as he did last season. If that does turn out to be the case, why the rush to pay him now when you still control him for two more seasons? Jeff Francouer is already locked up for 2 more years, Lorenzo Cain for the next 5, and you have phenom Wil Myers hopefully making a push to join the club in 2013. There are so many possible outcomes with those four players heading into 2012, why lock yourself into a long term deal? Well there are 2 reasons:

For one, this fan base, while energized and optimistic, is also leery of owner David Glass. Glass is viewed as cheap by many and detached by even more. If fan-favorite Gordon were to leave Kansas City and find the same success that Johnny Damon, Carlos Beltran, and Jermaine Dye did nearly ten years ago it would be a hard pill for the fans to swallow. Not signing Gordon, after all the talk about it this offseason, could signal to fans that this is the same old Royals that can’t afford to keep any of their homegrown talent.

The second is related to that, if not directly. No one really knows what Gordon’s mindset is. I know he has said publicly that he wants to stay a Royal…Damon said the same thing. What I do not know is whether or not Gordon and his agent are pushing hard for an extension this winter. Is he going to be insulted if the Royals do not put something together for him? If he is, how will he react? Many a player has had a career year trying to prove to management they are worth the extension they did not get. Just as many have pouted and their performance has suffered because of it.

Personally, I see Gordon as the type of player to excel in this situation. The struggles at the beginning of his career have hardened him and I have a hard time seeing him pouting, especially if this team is successful early. Many clubs would have given up on Gordon after his terrible 2009-2010 and wanting to wait until next offseason to get an extension done should not totally erase the goodwill that has been built. If I were Dayton Moore, I would wait to sign Alex Gordon, knowing that if he duplicates, or improves upon, last season I will be digging even deeper into David Glass’ pockets next winter.

This weekend at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, the Cards kick off a 3-game set with the Pirates, who are currently tied for first place in the National League Central Division standings. If you’re like most baseball fans, and there’s no reason to believe you aren’t, then you’re probably surprised to see the Bucs in this position on this day. Blah, blah, blah about X number of years since this, or last time they were this high in the standings on such-and-such day, it was that.

The reality of the world we live in today is that the President of the United States in an African-American, individuals can book a flight to space, and the Pittsburgh Pirates are playing meaningful games as the trade deadline approaches. Ask yourself if fifteen years ago you’d have thought any of those would be true statements today.

Death, Taxes, and Albert Pujols at PNC Park

In his last 8 games, Albert Pujols has 10 RBI to go with 9 hits, 4 bombs, and 6 runs scored. Said another way: He seems to be heating up, just as the redbirds head into Albert’s “Home away from home”. His numbers at PNC are so positively sick, it makes me wonder if Clint Hurdle or Ray Searage slept at all last night. The legendary slugger has played 80 games at PNC Park throughout his career to this point, and all he has to show for it is a .387 AVG, a 1.197 OPS, 26 HR, to go with his matching totals of 77 runs & RBI. He’s also been given 14 intentional passes to this point, while in the steel city.

The pitching matchups will be the key to this entire series. On Friday night, Carpenter (5-7) will square off against lefty Paul Maholm (6-9), who has been a workhorse for the Pirates this year, having logged over 126 innings going into the weekend. Saturday, the Cards only left-handed starter, Jamie Garcia (9-4) will face Kevin Correia (11-7). Correia is having a breakout season, and the Cards lineup will have their work cut out for them on Saturday night. Sunday’s matinee [probably] features Kyle Lohse (8-7) vs. Charlie Morton (8-5). This could be the Cardinals’ chance to put an exlcamation point on this series, as Morton hasn’t even reached the 6IP mark in his last 7 outings, dating back to the 4th of June. Though, Lohse’s finger remains a question in the minds of Tony LaRussa and others. Kyle left the team in New York to return to St. Louis for an evaluation on the middle finger of his pitching hand. Doctors cleared him to rejoin the team in Pittsburgh, but it could become an issue that resurfaces after he takes the mound on Sunday.

It’s a big series for both clubs, and you can be sure that the Brewers (and even Reds) will be watching closely from San Fransisco & Cincinnati, respectively. The Brewers can’t seem to buy a win on the road this year, even if they hadn’t tied up all that money in Braun. Meanwhile the Reds are hosting a Braves team that could possibly see a roster change or two during the series, as the Atlanta club has been mentioned in numerous trade rumors in the past several days.

So, the battles rage on for first place in the NL Central, among three or four teams., albeit not exactly the teams we all originally thought. The standings may change a few times per day this weekend, as the Cards/Pirates and Braves/Reds hook up in the Eastern time zone, while the Brewers/Giants play out West this weekend.

The Pirates are for real, and until the standings say otherwise, they are a team to be reckoned with, and not taken lightly. If the Cardinals are to win this series, they’ll need solid pitching performances from their starters, who will also need to go deep into games. The St. Louis bullpen has been suspect all season, so any leads earned will hopefully be protected in the late innings. If not, St. Louis could easily find themselves in 3rd place by Sunday evening, and while only a couple of games back, that could be a huge, (insurmountable even) problem in another month or so. But, we’ll worry about that, if & when the time comes.

The season is quickly coming upon us and here at I-70 Baseball, we want to give you a sneak peak at the fantasy outlook for both teams. Here is a look at the Kansas City Royals in 2011.

Projected Starting Lineup & Stats

3B Mike Aviles .287/11/60 – 12 SB

CF Melky Cabrera .263/7/45

1B Billy Butler .310/18/93

DH Kila Ka’aihue .255/20/75

RF Jeff Francoeur .260/12/65

LF Alex Gordon .264/18/67 – 10 SB

C Brayan Pena .273/5/30

2B Chris Getz .262/2/30 – 17 SB

SS Alcides Escobar .270/5/50 – 22 SB

Bench:

3B Mike Moustakas .290/17/45

IF Wilson Betemit .265/13/55

OF Mitch Maier .265/5/40

OF Lorenzo Cain .290/5/47 – 30 SB

Starting Rotation:

Luke Hochevar 8 W 4.62 ERA 125 K 1.41 WHIP

Jeff Francis 9 W 4.35 ERA 108 K 1.37 WHIP

Kyle Davies 8 W 4.85 ERA 125 K 1.55 WHIP

Bruce Chen 8 W 4.39 ERA 120 K 1.40 WHIP

Vin Mazzaro 6 W 4.47 ERA 90 K 1.46 WHIP

Bullpen:

SU – Robinson Tejeda 3.60 ERA 60 K 1.33 WHIP – 15 Holds

Closer – Joakim Soria 2.27 ERA 72 K 1.05 WHIP – 42 SV

What to Watch For:

Will Billy Butler’s power ever develop? If so, then he will quickly become one of the more coveted first basemen in fantasy circles. If not, you still have a guy who is a lot like John Olerud. He will have a great average and knock out 15-20. First base has plenty of options and winding up with Butler could be a nice place to be given his possible upside. Alex Gordon has moved to left. If you are still waiting for the superstar then you need to look elsewhere. That being said, with the attention now seemingly deflected away from him, Gordon might settle in and become a decent fantasy option. Mike Moustakas may begin the season at AAA, but he would be worth snatching the minute he is called up. The youngster enjoyed a breakout season last year (36 HR in AA & AAA combined) and looks to be in the majors soon.

Who to Stay Away From:

Is there a starting pitcher on this team you’d want to own? We might as well go ahead and say, “Stay away from them all”. The only one that might help in desperate times would be Jeff Francis. If he can recover some of his old form, he’d be a decent spot starter or back end option. However, you should really just steer clear of the whole situation.

There are very few players on the Cardinals 2011 roster that will look for breakout type seasons. David Freese will be the only position player that the team looks to for that type of production. Colby Rasmus does not need a breakout season, he simply needs to continue his climb in production from year’s past.

Colby Rasmus has been a frustrating and talented player for this organization. He has been the player that everyone was talking about as he climbed the ladder through the minor leagues. He was a “five tool player” that would be the heir apparent to the center field throne as Jim Edmonds left.

At times, Colby has not disappointed. He has shown discipline at the plate, good instincts in the field, and the power that everyone hopped would materialize. At others times, he has frustrated everyone around him. He has been un-coachable, distracted in the field, and lost at the plate. Most of it has been described as youth. Some have hoped that he has out grown it. In 2011, the Cardinals need him to prove that he has.

Last year seen a public debacle between Tony LaRussa and Colby Rasmus. A behind closed doors meeting became public knowledge when the skipper mentioned the instance in front of the press. Tony was fed up with Rasmus. Rasmus was frustrated with his manager. The young man wanted to be traded out of St. Louis.

The problem is, the Cardinals need young, cost controlled players for the future of the franchise if they are to afford the mammoth deal that Albert Pujols will command. Colby fits the bill for a few more seasons and can produce to the level of being a cornerstone of the organization. At times, John Mozeliak has mentioned his center fielder as a player the team was building around.

Colby simply needs to improve at his normal pace this year. Fifteen to twenty home runs and eighty runs batted in will be more than sufficient from the young man. His patience needs to be there, his confidence needs to settle in, and his defense needs to be what everyone expects from him. As a “Key Player” for the 2011 team, he simply needs to continue doing what he does and settle in to his role.

Ultimately, I would like to see Colby hitting in the number two spot in the order, providing the now famous “damage from the two-hole“. Currently, it is projected that Colby will his sixth behind the trio of Pujols, Matt Holliday, and Lance Berkman. Predicting where anyone will hit in a Tony LaRussa lineup is futile at best, but Colby simply needs to show the patience and delivery that he can produce offensively.

Defensively, I would like to see Colby show that he has overcome whatever it was that he struggle with last year. Word out of Spring Training is that Colby has spent a lot of time in fielding and throwing drills and we all hope it pays dividends. He shows good instincts in the field and, assuming he can capitalize on them, should be able to find himself as one of the top center fielders in the National League this season.

It will not take a break out year from the young man, but consistency from his position can give the Cardinals the edge they need for 2011.

Bill Ivie is the editor here at I-70 Baseball as well as the Assignment Editor for BaseballDigest.com.
He is the host of I-70 Radio, hosted every week on BlogTalkRadio.com.
Follow him on Twitter here.

Being an outspoken defender and ever-faithful fan of Brendan “Boog” Ryan, I was both delighted to be asked to contribute a piece dedicated to my favorite shortstop and yet bummed about the context. Hearing the label “former Cardinal” attached to Brendan still tugs at my heart, and seeing Brendan in a Mariners uniform this year will be bittersweet.

During the offseason, the Cardinals openly shopped Brendan Ryan amid cruel rumblings that Ryan had become a distraction in the Cardinals’ clubhouse. Brendan was eventually traded to the Seattle Mariners for Class A pitcher, Maikel Cleto. Those of us who enjoyed Brendan’s personality and marveled at his valuable defensive wizardry were appalled by the seemingly lopsided deal. But I digress…

This spring as in countless years before, fans all over the nation will be coming out of hibernation to reunite with baseball. Cardinal fans will notice new names on the roster, and the infield will showcase a different glove with #3 Ryan Theriot replacing #13 Brendan Ryan at shortstop.

Recap: The Cardinal Years

Brendan Ryan was selected by the St. Louis Cardinals in the 7^th round of the 2003 MLB amateur draft (215^th overall) at age 21. Working his way up the farm system, Ryan was promoted to Class AA Springfield Cardinals by the middle of 2005. A wrist injury limited his playing time considerably for the 2006 season. However Brendan rebounded in 2007, playing at both AAA Memphis and the big club, making his major league debut with the Cardinals on June 2, 2007. In 2007 Brendan split his time among 2^nd base, 3^rd base and shortstop. In 2008 Brendan played primarily middle infield and notably hit his first career grand slam on August 20^th at San Diego, giving the Cardinals a 5-1 win.

Brendan’s 2008 sophomore batting average slumped to .244 from .289 in 2007, but then rebounded to an impressive .292 for 2009 when Brendan also showcased a breakout season as the Cardinals’ everyday shortstop. Ryan turned heads with his brilliant defense and spectacular range (1^st in the NL that season). His .984 fielding percentage ranked him 4th among all shortstops for 2009 and Brendan also led the NL in assists during both the 2009 and 2010 seasons.

The 2010 season started out bumpy for Ryan who opted for wrist surgery in February after battling pain and discomfort for years. The surgery delayed his Spring Training progress and after an attempt to retool his swing under the guidance of Cardinals hitting coach, Mark McGwire, Brendan started the season struggling to find his comfort at the plate. His 2010 batting average danced around the Mendoza line much of the year, ending at a meager .223 (a far cry from the .292 he posted in 2009.)

Looking Ahead:

In January, Ryan avoided arbitration, signing a 2-year, $2.75 million contract with his new ballclub. He enters Spring Training in competition for the Mariners starting shortstop position with 33-year-old incumbent shortstop, Jack Wilson. Wilson spent most of last season plagued by injuries and is in his final year of a 2-year, $10 million contract. Brendan’s chances to start at either shortstop or 2^nd base are considered extremely good.

I expect Brendan Ryan to rebound from his poor offensive showing in 2010. Mariners fans will delight in his range and defense while a new ballclub, manager and league may provide the perfect fresh environment for Brendan’s unbridled passion and enthusiasm for the game.

Keep your eyes on the 2011 highlight reels. I predict we will be seeing a lot of Brendan Ryan this year, even though he will not be wearing the Birds on the Bat.

Go Boog, Go! ;)

Erika Lynn is a contributor for i70baseball.com, BaseballDigest.com and writes about the Cardinals at Cardinal Diamond Diaries. You can also find her on Twitter: @Erika4stlcards

References: Baseball-Reference.com and mlb.com

It has been six and a half mostly miserable seasons since Carlos Beltran was traded to the Astros. Selected by the Royals in the ’95 draft, he spent three uninspiring years in the low minors before having a breakout season in ’98 between A and AA ball. He earned a September call-up to the bigs that year, and debuted in a remarkable game: The Royals scored in all eight innings they batted, something that hadn’t been done in the majors since 1964. Beltran made a good first impression, hitting safely in 12 of the 14 September games he appeared in. An organization with more resources than the ’99 Royals had would have sent Beltran to AAA for further development, but the 22 year old was thrown into the fire as the Royals every day centerfielder. Some players would have wilted after being rushed, but Beltran put up a remarkable year that ended with 22 HRs, 27 stolen bases, a Jackie Robinson award, and the Royals having found an elite center fielder for years to come.

“He’s a legitimate five-tool player, no doubt about it. It’s the rarest thing in baseball, the five-tool player.”—Royals scout and advisor Art Stewart, 4/4/99 Kansas City Star

The five tools scouts look for are hitting for average, hitting for power, speed, arm, and fielding. Beltran possessed all the tools in spades. He had a bit of a sophomore slump in 2000, but was the best centerfielder in the AL between 2001—2003. Over those three seasons, he averaged 30 doubles, 10 triples, 26 HRs, 36 stolen bases (to just four caught stealing, an absurd 90% success rate), 107 runs, 102 RBI, .295 AVG, .365 OBP, .512 SLG, and played stellar defense at a premium position. Best of all, he was the biggest reason the 2003 Royals put up the only winning season in KC in the past 16 years.

In 2004, he entered his last year before free agency, and continued at the torrid level he had established. On opening day, he hit a walk-off homer to cap an incredible comeback in one of the most memorable games in Royals history. “I will remember this day the rest of my life,” he gushed to the Star. Unfortunately he was simply too great for KC to hold onto, and when it became clear the ’04 Royals were not in the division hunt, GM Allard Baird did what had to be done, and Beltran’s time in Kansas City was over. He had played 795 games with KC, good for 16th among position players. He ranks in the top ten in Royals history in the following categories: rWAR, slugging, OPS, runs scored, hits, total bases, triples, HRs, RBI, stolen bases, and win probability added.

In the three-team trade, the Royals received Mark Teahen, John Buck and Mike Wood. Joe Posnanski called it “five tools for three alien names.” (Chris Getz, acquired via trade for Teahen, is the only remaining link to the deal.) Beltran went to the Astros, and continued lighting up scoreboards in the National League. He hit 23 HRs in just 90 games with Houston. They were 38-34 and in fourth place at the time of the trade; They went 54-36 after to clinch a wild card spot. Then Beltran really went bonkers, drilling four homers in the division series and four more in the NLCS. He scored 21 runs in 12 games.

And then the payday that never could have happened in KC: a seven-year, $119 million contract with the Mets. Beltran seemed to need a year to adjust to his new situation and expectations, having an off-year in 2005 before returning to form. There was no better centerfielder in the NL between 2006—2008. The Mets were getting their money’s worth and then some. They reached the post-season in 2006, losing in the NLCS, and then missed the playoffs in heart-breaking fashion in 2007 and ’08. But individually, Beltran has played in such spectacular fashion that he rates fourth all time among Mets position players in rWAR (and could easily move up to third this season). (He will have also played more games as a Met than as a Royal if he makes it into 55 contests this year.) Paul Lebowitz has written recently that many Mets fans have never fully embraced Beltran, blaming him in part for late-season collapses and for mercenariness. If Mets fans have not appreciated Beltran’s superb talent, that is a shame.

Beltran’s story has been marred by injuries over the last two seasons; he played in 81 games in ’09 and just 64 last season after having arthroscopic knee surgery. The health of 33 year-old Beltran’s knees remains a major question mark, but is bad enough that Beltran will move to right field this season. BJ Mack of rotohardball.com writes that “there is a long history of tendonitis in both knees, which if not properly addressed can lead to significant arthritic changes that can cause long-term pain and immobility. He has frequently just dealt with it, along with treatment to help it ‘feel better.’ It finally progressed to the point that he had to have surgery to ‘clean things up.’” Mack feels the knees might not only be limiting his range in the field but also his ability to drive the ball with the bat and of course his speed on the basepaths.

Whether or not Beltran can manage a productive year will go a long way towards what kind of a contract he will command this off-season when he hits free agency. And in the bigger picture, his ability to produce several more productive seasons could be the difference between an induction to Cooperstown or not. If he retired today, he would already be a borderline candidate. A few more good to great years would make him a no-brainer.

A Struggling Astro

Joaquin Andujar made his major league debut on April 8, 1976. The 23 year old right hander made the club out of spring training, and was penciled in as a starter in a very young and intriguing rotation. In a few early season relief appearances, he would struggle with his control and the walks he issued would come back to haunt him. The wildness would continue through his first few starts, until being shut down with an injury before the first month of the season was over. Things were definitely not going to Andujar’s plan.

Joaquin Andujar

When he came back in June, a completely different and much more confident Joaquin Andujar took the mound. In his first start, he would throw a nifty 2 hit complete game against the Cincinnati Reds for his first major league win. As an encore, he would throw another 2 hitter in his next start against the Chicago Cubs, recording his first shutout. He would also throw another 2 hitter in September, this time against the Los Angeles Dodgers. His control was not much better, but he’d started finding ways to retire batters before they could hurt him.

After a rough 0-2 start to the season, with an ERA over 6, Andujar would go 9-8 with a respectable 3.20 ERA after his return, including 9 complete games and 4 shutouts. On any other team, this would would have been a sensational performance and Andujar would have been getting the lion’s share of praise for his efforts. But this was also the breakout season of J. R. Richard.

After spending several seasons bouncing between Houston, Oklahoma City (AAA) and Denver (AAA), the big, and I mean BIG right hander established himself as one of the best pitchers in the National League. At 6ft 8in, he was a towering sight on the mound, but it was the electric stuff that came out of his hand that made you stare open mouthed when you watched him pitch. He would soon break the National League record for strikeouts in a season, twice posting over 300 ks. Richard was the most exciting young arm to appear in the National League since Tom Seaver in 1967, and that played a huge part in Andujar’s early troubles. It was Richard and not Andujar that would become the ace of the Astros rotation, taking the reigns from Larry Dierker.

For a while, the Astros continued with the youth movement in the rotation. Floyd Bannister

JR Richard

and Mark Lemongello (one of the best baseball names ever) joined Richard and Andujar as the young guns in Houston. At the same time, veteran junk-baller Joe Niekro started turning back the hands of time, and kicked off a very promising second career. By 1978, he would take Andujar’s spot in the rotation, banishing the youngster to the bullpen – a veritable exile. But you could not argue with manager Bill Virdon’s success. Niekro would have back to back 20 win seasons and prove to be the perfect complement to J. R. Richards overpowering arsenal of pitches.

The anti-youth move would continue as veteran Ken Forsch, older brother of Cardinals pitcher Bob Forsch, would work his way back into the rotation. Nolan Ryan and Don Sutton also joined the rotation, pitching like young men again. As the Astros record improved, Andujar fell deeper and deeper into Bill Virdon’s dog house, and his role diminished significantly – now a spot starter and mop-up arm in the bullpen.

It was the combination of consistency and pride that derailed Andujar in Houston. When he got into trouble, bad things would happen. Some times, his emotions would get the better of him, and he would start throwing at opposing batters. Other times, he would just throw instead of pitch, and that got him into worse trouble. Andujar was a proud and competitive athlete, if only a coach or a manager could find a way of focusing that on something positive.

June 7, 1981

Andujar as a Redbird

June 7, 1981 is the day that Joaquin Andujar’s career took a turn for thebetter – but we had to wait almost 60 days to find that 0ut. Five days later, before the new Cardinal could make his debut, a work stoppage caused Major League Baseball to suspend all games until August 10.

The Astros had come within a single game of going to the World Series in 1980, and were contending again in 1981. Their perennial Gold Glove winning center fielder, Cesar Cedeno, was beginning to show signs of wear and tear from playing so long on the hard artificial turf, so a move to first base would be able to keep his potent bat in the lineup. The Cardinals had somewhat of a surplus of outfielders, and a deal was struck, sending Tony Scott to Houston for Joaquin Andujar. This deal worked out well for both clubs, as Scott turned in a productive year and helped Astros reach the playoffs again.

As for Andujar, the 1981 Cardinals couldn’t have been a better spot for the temperamental hurler to land. There were no stars in the Cardinals rotation, except perhaps for local fan favorite, Bob Forsch. This was an opportunity for Andujar to start over again, and if he could duplicate some of his past success, he might finally become the ace of the staff.

When play resumed in August, Andujar made his Cardinals debut in a short relief appearance. It was rather underwhelming, but there was somewhat of a spring training atmosphere in the first week of the new season. When he finally made his first start, on August 14 in Montreal, he made quite an impression. It was a short outing, but he earned the win, and perhaps the respect of the players around him. He would win over the fans in the following two months, finishing with a 6-1 record as a Redbird, including winning his last 4 starts. Yes, the Cardinals had something special in Andujar, and maybe Whitey Herzog was just the manager to get the best out of him.

Pennant stretch

Andujar got off to a great start in the 1982 season, but thanks to a general lack of run support, his record didn’t reflect how well he actually pitched. Entering a game against the Pittsburgh Pirates on August 12, he had a losing record of 8-10, but an era of 2.81. Those two numbers just didn’t go together, and Andujar was about to put the universe in balance. It is also important to note that the Cardinals were just a half game out of first place when Andujar threw his first pitch.

Andujar would throw a gem of a game. Jim Kaat and Bruce Sutter would close it out and make a hard luck loser our of Ross Baumgarten. In doing so, they would also take over sole possession of first place, a spot they would hold on to for all but two days of the remaining season. A big reason for the Cardinals success during August and September ? Joaquin Andujar would make 10 more starts for the Cardinals in 1982, and the Redbirds would win all but one of them. From half a game out on August 12, the Cardinals would go 10-1 in Andujar’s remaining starts and win the NL East by 3 games.

Joaquin was now the ace of the Cardinals pitching staff.

A Bad Break

Andujar would get one start against the Atlanta Braves in the 1982 NLCS. It went by so quickly, hardly anybody noticed. If they did, events in the World Series would make them forget all about his nifty win.

The quick dispatching of the Atlanta Braves set up a rather unusual pitching rotation for Whitey Herzog in the World Series. Andujar would not see action until Game Three. After splitting the first two games at home, Herzog gave Andujar the ball for the first game in Milwaukee, and he delivered. And then some. Andujar was on fire, retiring Brewers batters as soon as they stepped in the batters box. He had a 3 hit shutout working with one out in the seventh inning when tragedy struck. Former Cardinal, Ted Simmons, hit a line drive off Andujar’s leg that sent the big hurler to the ground in a ball. After several minutes, he was was carried off the field, and assumed to be done for the series. Jim Kaat, Doug Bair and Bruce Sutter scrambled to preserve the win, but the momentum in the series just turned in the direction of the Brewers.

The Brewers would take the two remaining home games, forcing the Cardinals to win both Games Six and Seven. John Stuper turned in a masterful performance on a cold and rainy night in Game Six, and the Cards routed the Brew Crew 13-1.

Much to everybody’s surprise, Joaquin Andujar took the mound for Game Seven. He didn’t look right from the first pitch. It looked like it hurt when he shifted his weight in his delivery and he threw wildly across his body. But he pitched like a champion and kept the Cardinals in the game until a late rally against a spent Brewers bullpen made a winner out of the Redbirds. And a legend out of Andujar.

A major milestone

1983 was not a good year for the Cardinals, and Andujar was not immune to the general funk in the clubhouse. Keith Hernandez was sent to New York in the dead of night, leaving many questions unanswered. We would learn much more in September of 1985, but for now, things were just unsettled. Throw in a big injury to Tommy Herr, and the Cardinals just had a bad season. Andujar would lose a career high 16 games, winning only 6. His ERA ballooned to over 4 runs per game, but there was nothing obviously wrong with him – just a funky year.

The wounds from 1983 would start healing for the Cardinals in 1984. Andujar would rebound quickly and turned in the best season of his career so far, winning a league leading 20 games, led the league in innings pitched (261 1/3). He would also throw 12 complete games, including a league leading 4 shutouts. There was suddenly reason to be optimistic about post-season baseball returning to the Gateway City, and the ace of the staff was big part of the turnaround. Throw in an interesting right handed pitching prospect by the name of Danny Cox, a young and talented outfielder named van Slyke, and the Cardinals might be one trade away from returning to the fall classic.

The most amazing thing about the Andujar story, we haven’t seen the best of him yet. To be continued ….