The Kansas City Royals are, arguably, one of the most exciting franchises in the league today.  They are young, talented, and have proven they can win at various levels on their way to the Major Leagues.

Exciting as that may be, when those young guys arrive in “the bigs”, they need leadership.  They need someone to show them how to act like big leaguers.  They need a guide along this journey that can show them, for lack of a better phrase, “The Royal Way”.

During the off-season, Dayton Moore and company were faced with a tough decision.  They had a glutton of youth that was becoming ready for the next step and a solid group behind them that could be ready sooner than later.  In particular, this created a problem in the outfield where they had two veteran players that showed promise.  The decision needed to be made between Jeff Francoeur and Melky Cabrera.  Many fans point out the inequity of the choice that was made.

A quick look at Baseball-Reference, accurate through 6/26…

Statistically speaking, it is obvious the wrong choice was made.  Now, I know, hindsight is 20-20 and by no means do I feel that anyone could have predicted that Melky would have such a great year or that Frenchy would have such an average one.  What I am here to say is simply that the choice of Francoeur over Cabrera cannot be measured by the typical numbers.  Nor do I feel that it will be something we may ever be able to measure.

Jeff Francoeur was kept on this team for his ability to usher in a crop of young guys into the proper way of handling themselves.  The intangibles around him as a man, a clubhouse personality, and a mentor all lead to the real reasons that he has a two year deal with this club.

Will he stick around beyond the trading deadline this year?  That will rely largely on factors of the production of other players in the system and the maturity of the roster as a whole.  If he should leave, who assumes his role as leadership both on and off the field?

Eric Hosmer
Hos is a bit of a natural choice here.  He was, in a very big way, the beginning of the youth movement in Kansas City.  He has spent a large amount of time in the system with a lot of the young players that are beginning to surface.  He’s young…very young, but his composure, quiet attitude, and expectation of winning will serve him well in the future.

Mike Moustakas
Moose is a much different candidate for leader of this team.  Throughout his minor league career, he has been known as a fiery personality that expects to win and is not afraid to tell anyone that they need to step it up a notch.  He is a player that will be vocal and visible in a leadership role.  In addition, he has earned a lot of respect for toning that side of his personality and game way down as he learns the ropes in Kansas City.

Alex Gordon
This is not only the most logical choice, but may be a change that is already in motion.  Gordon has been the player that has possibly most benefited from the presence of Jeff Francoeur.  They locker near each other, they are seen frequently together on road trips, and they have been seen working together in the field during warm ups.  Gordon received a long term deal from the club, is a leader on the field offensively and defensively, and has shown a large amount of maturity over the last few seasons.

As this team grows and becomes more and more competitive, leadership will be needed to help culture a winning environment and teach the players how to keep their heads down, their noses clean, and their game on the field pristine.  The right guys are in place to do just that and Jeff Fracoeur is a big part of ushering in a whole new era of Royals baseball.

Bill Ivie is the editor here at I-70 Baseball
He is the host of I-70 Radio, hosted every week on BlogTalkRadio.
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The Royals’ minor league clubs moved quickly into action as soon as the big league club broke camp. No sooner were the minors rosters set than they were on the field, starting games on April 5.

The Royals had the top rated farm system in all of baseball just over a year ago. But much has changed since then, and most of those top prospects are now doing battle in KC.

That doesn’t mean, however, that the cupboard is now bare. The minor league rosters are peppered with another crop of elite prospects. And though the games going on in KC should actually mean something this year, the minor leagues bear watching as the next wave of prospects matures.

Noticeably absent from the minor league rosters is John Lamb, Baseball America’s #18 prospect in 2011. Lamb is still rehabbing his surgically repaired elbow in Surprise. Still, Baseball America thought enough of Lamb to rank him sixth among Royals prospects.

Pitching prospects in the system ranked by Baseball America in 2012 are Mike Montgomery, #23, and Jake Odorizzi, #68.

Omaha:
Triple-A rosters are usually stocked at least in part with veterans who are ready to jump to the big leagues in a moment’s notice. KC’s Omaha farm team has a handful of starters who have already failed once (or more times) at the big league level.

Zach Miner fits that description. The 30-year-old who owns a 25-20 record in the bigs is still trying to work his way back from an injury that knocked him out of the entire 2010 season.

Also on Omaha’s staff will be Vin Mazzaro and Sean O’Sullivan, two who failed miserably in their chances in KC. No longer considered prospects, Mazzaro, O’Sullivan and particularly Miner will need to seize this as possibly their last opportunity.

Brandon Sisk, a 26-year-old who has received very little attention to this point, had a very good season split between NW and Omaha in 2011. Ryan Verdugo, 25, came over in the Melky Cabrera trade from San Francisco.

In the Omaha bullpen are three familiar faces to KC – Louis Coleman, Nathan Adcock and Jeremy Jeffress. Coleman has to be the most disappointed to not be on the big league roster. Coleman pitched well for the Royals last season, posting a 2.87 ERA and a 1.173 WHIP in 48 games.

Adcock was overmatched last year, but he has a chance now to prove who he truly is as a prospecT. Jeffress spiraled from KC all the way down to Double-A, struggling at every level. But his enviable physical ability keeps him in the “top-prospect” category.

Much to Ned Yost’s dismay, Montgomery solidified his spot in Omaha quite early in the spring. KC hoped to give the big righthander every opportunity to crack the big league rotation. But Montgomery failed miserably in spring training and took himself out of the running. Still ranked #1 among Royals prospects by Baseball America, Montgomery needs to improve on an awful 2011 in Omaha (5-11, 5.32 ERA), or he’ll be in danger of becoming a bust.

NW Arkansas:
Double-A tends to be the “proving ground” for prospects. Therefore it shouldn’t be surprising that most of the Royals’ premier pitching talents (aside from Montgomery) will start the season in Northwest Arkansas, even though many of them ended 2011 there.

Probably the team’s top pitching prospect at this point is 22-year-old lefty Odorizzi, the Royals’ #4 prospect according to Baseball America.  A key piece in the Zack Greinke trade, Odorizzi has moved slowly but steadily through the ranks. Odorizzi’s performances were spotty at Northwest Arkansas after dominating at Wilmington in the first half of 2011. He will probably get a promotion if he pitches well at Double-A.

The Royals’ #9 rated prospect, Chris Dwyer, will also start the same place he finished 2011. Dwyer was marginally successful last season, going 8-10 with 5.60 ERA. He will also be gunning for a mid-season promotion.

Northwest Arkansas will have an abundance of starting pitchers, and the most intriguing prospect is Noel Arguelles. The Cuban signee finally made his appearance in Wilmington last year after hiding in the shadows of a huge contract and mysterious arm troubles. Opinions of his ability vary greatly, but Arguelles had a 3.20 ERA and a 1.125 WHIP in his first professional season.

Other marginal prospects Tim Melville (22-years-old), Justin Marks (24) and Kendal Volz (24) will have a chance to prove themselves as prospects or just warm bodies against the tough Texas League competition.

Wilmington:
The Royals #8 prospect, Jason Adam and #10 prospect, Yordano Ventura, will begin the season in Wilmington. Both 20-year-olds had losing records and high ERAs at Kane County last year, but both have highly-regarded talent.

Keep an eye on 21-year-old Greg Billo. He went 9-5 with a 1.93 ERA and a 1.022 WHIP at Kane County. Billo struck out 7.9 batters per nine innings.

When the World Series champion St. Louis Cardinals begin defense of the title they won in one of the most exciting postseasons in recent memory, it might be easy to focus on who isn’t around anymore. They’ve had to replace the winningest manager in franchise history, Tony La Russa, as well as one of the greatest players to ever wear a Cardinals uniform, Albert Pujols.

If you were searching for the ideal replacement for Albert Pujols, then move along, because you won’t find it. There is only one Pujols, and he’s gone.  Albert Pujols had manned this position full time for the past eight seasons. But he is now with the Los Angeles Angels, and Lance Berkman moves from the outfield to a spot where, at 36, he’s better suited for. Berkman earned NL comeback player of the year honors by hitting .301 with 31 homers and 94 RBI last season. When he needs a day off, Carlos Beltran and even Yadier Molina will be there to help.

Brian LaHair, Cubs. The long-time Minor Leaguer was last up in the bigs back in ’08 with the Mariners. In his latest go-round, the 28-year-old has made an impression on manager Mike Quade, batting a blistering .500 with a .950 slugging percentage. While too old to be considered a prospect, LaHair launched 38 homers and drove in 109 for Triple-A Iowa this season and could provide some decent power returns over the final few weeks of the season.

Joey Votto, Reds. Votto is still one of the best players in the National League, and obviously the best first baseman in the league. His 14.2 fWAR over the last two years leads all NL first basemen, and the reigning 2010 MVP isn’t just one of the best in the NL, but in all of baseball. Votto will be heading to free agency after 2013, but he’ll be 30 at that point in time, and probably won’t get as crazy of a deal as Fielder and Pujols. But he should still get a solid contract, if not from the Reds, then from another team that needs a first baseman.

Carlos Lee, Astros. Lee’s behemoth contract comes to an end after this season, but after a pair of down years, Lee had a really good campaign in 2011, though one that wasn’t worth his eight figure salary. He hit .275/.342/.446, and walked nearly as much as he struck out. He won’t be getting $18.5 million in 2013 from another team, but he’s a guy that could actually hang on for a few more years like Jim Thome has, as a DH that occasionally plays first base.

Mat Gamel, Brewers. Milwaukee still doesn’t have a replacement for Prince Fielder at first, and it’s generally believed that Gamel will be taking over there this season. He’s no longer a young, studly prospect at 26 years-old, and in his only extended tour in the majors in 2009, he OPSed .760 in 148 plate appearances. He’s spent parts of the last four seasons at AAA Nashville, and has hit well there, tallying a .310/.372/.540 line there last year with 28 homers. Milwaukee needs to find out what they’ve got with him, and 2012 would be the best opportunity for him and the Brewers to see what they have here.

Garrett Jones, Pirates. Jones’s splits last year were startling: he had a .460 OPS against lefties, and an .808 OPS against righties. If Pittsburgh plans on starting him, they’ll need a platoon partner. One option would be former top third base prospect Pedro Alvarez….who has the same deficiency against lefties that Jones has. It could be a rough year for the Pirates if they roll with Jones as their starter.

Lance Berkman, Cardinals. Berkman will be taking over at first base for the Cardinals this season following the departure of Albert Pujols after a fantastic 2011 season that saw him OPS .959, hit 31 homers (his highest total since 2007), and accrue 5.0 fWAR. His defensive inadequacies should be masked at first base, and if his health holds up, Berkman could be a great replacement for Pujols (though not nearly as good overall as the former MVP). But remember, injuries have been an issue for Berkman lately, missing 66 games in 2009 and 2010.

By the time 2012 is said and done here is how I see things shaking out amongst the NL Central second basemen

1. Joey Votto
2. Lance Berkman
3. Carlos Lee
4. Garrett Jones
5. Bryan LaHair
6. Mat Gamel

The Kansas City Royals have been quiet this week, only announcing their slogan.  Our Time.  Well Royals fans had thought for a couple days this could be Our Time.  Until, the Detroit Tigers shocked a lot of people when they signed Prince Fielder to the 4^th largest contract in baseball history.  I thought Fielder would now be the everyday DH and Miguel Cabrera stays at first.  This week Cabrera has said he will play third.  That altered our look at third basemen quite a bit.  I doubt he plays too much third base because he defense could be atrocious.  In the American League Central and for the Detroit Tigers, all of baseball knows who is on third.  With that said we will now take a look at the American League Central third basemen.  The following statistics will give us a view of each player’s 2011 season.

The Chicago White Sox will start Brent Morel.  Who?  That was my thought too. 2011 was Morel’s first full season in the big leagues.  In both of Morel’s stints in the bigs he has shown nothing.  Morel was a solid hitter throughout the minor leagues with an average of over .300.  The White Sox have to hope Morel can regain the form he had in the minors, or he just may turn out to be another AAAA player.

The Cleveland Indians will be starting Jack Hannahan.  Hannahan has been a career back up.  He had not over 150 at bats for three until last season with the Indians.  Hannahan had 320 at bats and his highest average in 5 years hitting .250.  Obviously when you look at Hannahan stats he is nothing but a major league bench player.  Good luck Cleveland with Hannahan at third.

Miguel Cabrera is officially listed as Detroit’s starting third basement per the Tigers official website.  Cabrera is a perennial MVP candidate.  In 2011, Cabrera posted his highest batting average ever at .344.  Cabrera also posted his highest OBP ever at .448.  That is not too far from the ordinary, Cabrera is a career .317 hitter and has posted a .395 OBP.  Imagine the impact of having Prince Fielder now hitting behind Cabrera.  The Tigers offense is going to be scary.  Their infield defense may be the size of an offensive line and may post the worst defensive ratings in MLB history, but their offense will easily outweigh their defensive struggles.

The Kansas City Royals will have second year man Mike Moustakas at third.  In his second big league season, the Royals hope Moustakas can continue to grow as a hitter.  Moustakas struggled immensely in his first couple months in the big leagues.  Moustakas has struggled at every stop throughout the minors after his initial call up.  As Moustakas saw more major league pitching he began to show flashes of what scouts said could be expected of Moustakas.  Can Moustakas take another step forward this year?  For the Royals to compete in the central, he will have to take a huge step forward.

The Minnesota Twins will begin the season with Danny Valencia at third.  Valencia in his first full big league season hit .246.  A huge decrease from the average Valencia had carried throughout the minor leagues.  A career .290 hitter in the minors Valencia, take a huge step back in his first full big league season.  Valencia and the Twins hope he can become the hitter he was in the minors, but it looks like we may have another AAAA player.

Now that all third baseman have briefly been discussed, I will rank them from 1 to 5 in my point of view as to how their overall production for the 2012 season will stack up.   Well I don’t know if it is even necessary, as no one can compare to Miguel Cabrera.  Cabrera is by far and away the best player at third base.  As for my rankings, here they are.

1. Miguel Cabrera
2. Mike Moustakas
3. Danny Valencia
4. Jack Hannahan
5. Brent Morel

From my point of view, and anyone else who knows what baseball is, Miguel Cabrera will by far be the best and most impactful offensive player at third base.  Cabrera will continue to produce MVP caliber numbers and dominate all major league pitching.  It’s scary to think how much better Cabrera could be with Fielder hitting behind him.  The rest of the third basemen have a lot to prove.  Moustakas is a huge prospect for the Royals and if the scouts are right he should continue to improve.  Moustakas has a long way to go, but he should be better than the rest.

Let me start off by saying I hate to keep beating the dead horse that is Ryan Franklin’s struggles this season. I’ve already written extensively about it twice in the past month. First, I questioned whether Cardinals manager, Tony La Russa, would do the right thing when it came time to drop a pitcher off the roster and into the minors. Two weeks ago, Franklin’s workload severely dropped off, and I thought I had my answer.

That’s what makes the decision to demote Mitchell Boggs to the minors and keep Franklin so shocking. Tony La Russa has not been confident enough to voluntarily bring him into a close game in a month. April 23^rd, Franklin came in a 3-3 game in the 8^th vs the Reds and let both runners he inherited score with two outs. May 1^st, Franklin was the last pitcher available in a 6-5 loss to the Braves in extra innings. Other than that, here’s the situations Franklin has been asked to pitch in over the past 30 days:

May 20 – Trailing 3-0 in the 8^th @ Kansas City

May 14 – Trailing 5-0 in the 7^th @ Cincinnati

May 11 – Trailing 6-0 in the 4^th @ Chicago

April 27 – Leading 6-0 in the 8^th @ Houston

It’s not a big surprise that Franklin hasn’t been trusted. Virtually every single close game Franklin’s been involved the Cardinals have lost. The Cardinals are 3-10 in games Franklin pitches in, including 4 blown saves and 2 other games where he’s entered the game with the score tied… and exited with the Cardinals behind. At this point, it’s fair to label Franklin the “blowout specialist” of the bullpen.

So why again is Franklin in the majors and Boggs in the minors? The “best” explanation I’ve received thus far is that Boggs is still within the window of his contract/career where he can be sent to the minors, whereas Franklin would have to be released altogether. While I can understand the club not wanting to lose the services of a pitcher they’re committed to paying another $2.5 million dollars this year, sometimes it’s just best to cut your losses…literally.

Here’s a quick comparison of Boggs and Franklin:

The numbers don’t lie. It’s not as if this is a small sample size like La Russa argued in Franklin’s defense in the second week of April (after Franklin’s fourth blown save). In 18 appearances, Boggs prevented the opposing team from scoring 12 times, a 67% rate. In 13 appearances, Franklin has prevented the opposing team from scoring twice… a 15% rate. The two teams he did manage to hold scoreless were the Pittsburgh Pirates and Kansas City Royals… not exactly offensive juggernauts.

But I guess it’s useless to analyze the numbers any longer. It’s blatantly obvious that Mitchell Boggs is the better pitcher. There’s really nothing else to say. Tony La Russa obviously feels Franklin’s proven track record over the course of the past 3 years has earned him the benefit of the doubt.

Boo-birds at Busch, frustrated radio talk show callers, and angry sports forum posters would lead you to believe that Cardinal Nation adamantly disagrees.

It has been six and a half mostly miserable seasons since Carlos Beltran was traded to the Astros. Selected by the Royals in the ’95 draft, he spent three uninspiring years in the low minors before having a breakout season in ’98 between A and AA ball. He earned a September call-up to the bigs that year, and debuted in a remarkable game: The Royals scored in all eight innings they batted, something that hadn’t been done in the majors since 1964. Beltran made a good first impression, hitting safely in 12 of the 14 September games he appeared in. An organization with more resources than the ’99 Royals had would have sent Beltran to AAA for further development, but the 22 year old was thrown into the fire as the Royals every day centerfielder. Some players would have wilted after being rushed, but Beltran put up a remarkable year that ended with 22 HRs, 27 stolen bases, a Jackie Robinson award, and the Royals having found an elite center fielder for years to come.

“He’s a legitimate five-tool player, no doubt about it. It’s the rarest thing in baseball, the five-tool player.”—Royals scout and advisor Art Stewart, 4/4/99 Kansas City Star

The five tools scouts look for are hitting for average, hitting for power, speed, arm, and fielding. Beltran possessed all the tools in spades. He had a bit of a sophomore slump in 2000, but was the best centerfielder in the AL between 2001—2003. Over those three seasons, he averaged 30 doubles, 10 triples, 26 HRs, 36 stolen bases (to just four caught stealing, an absurd 90% success rate), 107 runs, 102 RBI, .295 AVG, .365 OBP, .512 SLG, and played stellar defense at a premium position. Best of all, he was the biggest reason the 2003 Royals put up the only winning season in KC in the past 16 years.

In 2004, he entered his last year before free agency, and continued at the torrid level he had established. On opening day, he hit a walk-off homer to cap an incredible comeback in one of the most memorable games in Royals history. “I will remember this day the rest of my life,” he gushed to the Star. Unfortunately he was simply too great for KC to hold onto, and when it became clear the ’04 Royals were not in the division hunt, GM Allard Baird did what had to be done, and Beltran’s time in Kansas City was over. He had played 795 games with KC, good for 16th among position players. He ranks in the top ten in Royals history in the following categories: rWAR, slugging, OPS, runs scored, hits, total bases, triples, HRs, RBI, stolen bases, and win probability added.

In the three-team trade, the Royals received Mark Teahen, John Buck and Mike Wood. Joe Posnanski called it “five tools for three alien names.” (Chris Getz, acquired via trade for Teahen, is the only remaining link to the deal.) Beltran went to the Astros, and continued lighting up scoreboards in the National League. He hit 23 HRs in just 90 games with Houston. They were 38-34 and in fourth place at the time of the trade; They went 54-36 after to clinch a wild card spot. Then Beltran really went bonkers, drilling four homers in the division series and four more in the NLCS. He scored 21 runs in 12 games.

And then the payday that never could have happened in KC: a seven-year, $119 million contract with the Mets. Beltran seemed to need a year to adjust to his new situation and expectations, having an off-year in 2005 before returning to form. There was no better centerfielder in the NL between 2006—2008. The Mets were getting their money’s worth and then some. They reached the post-season in 2006, losing in the NLCS, and then missed the playoffs in heart-breaking fashion in 2007 and ’08. But individually, Beltran has played in such spectacular fashion that he rates fourth all time among Mets position players in rWAR (and could easily move up to third this season). (He will have also played more games as a Met than as a Royal if he makes it into 55 contests this year.) Paul Lebowitz has written recently that many Mets fans have never fully embraced Beltran, blaming him in part for late-season collapses and for mercenariness. If Mets fans have not appreciated Beltran’s superb talent, that is a shame.

Beltran’s story has been marred by injuries over the last two seasons; he played in 81 games in ’09 and just 64 last season after having arthroscopic knee surgery. The health of 33 year-old Beltran’s knees remains a major question mark, but is bad enough that Beltran will move to right field this season. BJ Mack of rotohardball.com writes that “there is a long history of tendonitis in both knees, which if not properly addressed can lead to significant arthritic changes that can cause long-term pain and immobility. He has frequently just dealt with it, along with treatment to help it ‘feel better.’ It finally progressed to the point that he had to have surgery to ‘clean things up.’” Mack feels the knees might not only be limiting his range in the field but also his ability to drive the ball with the bat and of course his speed on the basepaths.

Whether or not Beltran can manage a productive year will go a long way towards what kind of a contract he will command this off-season when he hits free agency. And in the bigger picture, his ability to produce several more productive seasons could be the difference between an induction to Cooperstown or not. If he retired today, he would already be a borderline candidate. A few more good to great years would make him a no-brainer.

After growing up in St. Louis, it’s been quite a unique experience living in Springfield, Missouri…home to the Cardinals’ Double-A affiliate. It’s like seeing the future unfold before my eyes. I saw Colby Rasmus hit a walk-off homerun in a playoff game in 2007. I saw Jaime Garcia mow down the St. Louis Cardinals’ lineup during a late spring exhibition game at Hammons Field. Both of those players clearly had a legitimate change at a future in the big leagues.

And then there’s Jon Jay.

Photo By Erika Lynn

Jay is hands down my favorite Springfield Cardinal of all time, and frankly it’s hard to put my finger on it as to why that is. He’s not flashy and doesn’t hit for power. He isn’t a speedster on the base paths, and he’s not an RBI machine. His average numbers in a full minor league season were a .300 avg., 8-10 homeruns, and about 45-50 RBIs.

He stands a shade less than six feet, and weighs in right at 200 pounds. Despite being a fan, I never envisioned that he’d one day make it to the big leagues, much less as a member of the Cardinals’ organization. When he was called up to Triple-A Memphis is 2008, my exact reaction was “I guess someone up there got hurt.”

But Jay has two wildly redeeming qualities that kept him in the big leagues for 105 games last year. First, the kid can hit. He started off hitting in the neighborhood of .400 in his first couple weeks in the bigs before eventually checking in at .300 for the year. He had nearly 300 at bats, so his average was legit. Secondly, the guy has “it.” I know, so cliché. But he does. How else can you explain his early success on a Tony LaRussa ball club? LaRussa, you might recall, pretty much despises young players, even ones with talent. About the only exceptions I can think of are Yadier Molina (a perennial Gold Glover) and Albert Pujols (who wouldn’t have even made Tony’s 2001 squad out of Spring Training had it not been for an injury to Bobby Bonilla.

That’s why I’m really anxious to see what’s in store for Jay. We know Matt Holliday is going to see 150+ games in left, but the other two outfield spots are, shall we say, flexible? Lance Berkman, even if his health holds up, is probably looking at 100 starts max in right field, and a looming role as pinch-hitter in the other games. Colby Rasmus still gets the kids gloves by Tony. He won’t see a start vs. a lefty, and will get benched in other curious scenarios, I’m sure.

In other words, Jon Jay will get every opportunity to see as much time, if not more, than he got last season. The question is: will he keep hitting? If he can avoid the sophomore slump, he could set himself up for a bright future in the big leagues. He’s got a ton of potential and is a fun player to watch. He’s a guy people like to root for…and I’ll be rooting right along with the rest of the Cardinals fan base as number 15 steps onto the diamond for year two.

Philadelphia has four outstanding pitchers forming the core of their 2011 rotation – can the Cardinals quartet compete?

Most prognosticators have already ceded the Philadelphia Phillies the NL East, NL Pennant, and World Series Championship in 2011. This is based on the team being able to send a formidable foursome of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt, and Cole Hamels to the hill on a recurring basis. No other team, as the logic goes, can match that rotation for quality and depth.

Well, perhaps Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Madison Baumgarner, and Jonathan Sanchez. But let’s not sell Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Jake Westbrook, and Jamie Garcia short – they can pitch too. How close are these Cardinal hurlers to the new National League gold standard?

Looking at Wins Above Replacement for each pitcher over the past three years, one is amazed at how durable the Phillie starters are. Consider:

• Roy Halladay WAR (2010-2008): 6.8, 6.6, 7.3
• Cliff Lee WAR : 6.7, 7.1, 6.6
• Roy Oswalt WAR: 4.2, 4.7, 3.0
• Cole Hamels WAR: 4.2, 3.8, 3.6

Now compare that to the Cardinal starters over the same period.

• Chris Carpenter WAR (2010-2008): 3.7, 5.6, 0.4
• Adam Wainwright: 6.7, 6.1, 5.7
• Jake Westbrook: 2.3, missed all of 2009, 0.4
• Jamie Garcia, 3.2 (rookie season).

Wainwright is as good as any pitcher in the league, and was every bit as good as both Halladay and Lee in 2010. After him there is a significant drop-off. Carpenter was hurt in 2008, Westbrook missed most of 2008 and all of 2009 to injury, and Garcia just completed his first full season in the bigs (after missing 2009 to arm surgery). And let’s not get into Kyle Lohse’s injury history since his bit 2008 season.

Carpenter is certainly still capable of putting up another season close to his 2009 effort, but will probably be in the 3.7-4.2 WAR region for 2011. He is a warrior, but he will also turn 36 next season and has a lot of miles on his right arm (not to mention injuries). Garcia will improve in his second season and will probably be close to Carpenter, perhaps 3.5-4.0 WAR. Westbrook is 33; his best years were 2004-2006, and his best WAR was 4.5 (2006). If he is able to stay healthy all season, he’s probably a Carpenter-level guy (3.7-4.2 WAR). Wainwright will remain one of the best pitchers in the league (6.4-7.2 WAR).

Figure Halladay and Lee to post between 6.3-7.0 WAR, and Oswalt/Hamels to post similar numbers (somewhere in the 4.0-4.7 range).

What does it all mean? It means pitching-wise, this team is still good enough to win the NL Central and make a run in the post-season. It means Cardinal pitchers are pretty good too – perhaps not quite as vaunted a rotation as the Phillies have, but certainly good enough to win 90+ games.

Granted, should they make it to the NLCS, having to face Halladay, Lee, and Oswalt twice each in a 7-game series is a tough task. If the 2006 post-season taught us anything, however, it’s that the playoffs are a crapshoot. In 2010, that lesson was reinforced – who seriously thought the Giants would beat Cliff Lee twice in the World Series?

So let’s not mail Ruben Amaro Jr the National League pennant for 2011 just yet. There’s a pretty good staff working alongside the banks of the Mississippi too.

A few things I am thankful for in the KC baseball universe.

1. The Farm

Royals GM Dayton Moore’s Process^TM of building through the draft took a quantum leap forward in 2010, and the Royals boast the consensus pick for most loaded farm system in the universe. Royals fans could often look past another lost season at the big-league level and find eye-popping performances from kids down on the farm and dream about things to come. 2010 was an unabashed success on the farm, which was more crucial than a successful year in the bigs. It has been repeated many times in Royals-land, but that’s because it is freaking awesome: It is assumed KC will earn Baseball America’s top ranked farm system this off-season, and the last 10 organizations so named have reached the major league postseason within four years.

2. Royals Nerdosphere

Though Royals followers have not been rewarded with great play on the diamond in recent years, we do enjoy more than our fair share of great Royals coverage from both professionals and amateurs. With so much insightful, passionate coverage of a bad team, sometimes reading, writing and discussing the Royals is more fun than actually watching them. My Twitter feed sometimes reads like a support group for us woebegone fans.

I am not sure if it is a paradox or if it makes perfect sense, but the fact is that while the Royals front office has been infamously dismissive of advances in baseball analysis, a large segment of the fan base has swung the other way and make up some of the brightest minds in sabermetrics. Bill James, the grand poobah, grew up a Royals fan. Rob Neyer, a James protégé, was also a KC fan. Joe Posnanski has long covered KC baseball with a saber-tilt. Names familiar to saber nerds such as Rany Jazayerli, Matt Klaassen, Jeff Zimmerman, and many more belong to Royals fans. Jazayerli put it best:

“Sometimes I wonder if the Royals were put on this earth with the express purpose of teaching the world the core principles of sabermetrics…If you want to know why it seems like so much of the Kansas City media—and increasingly, the Kansas City fan base—is so stat-savvy even though the team itself is stuck in the 1970s, it’s precisely because we’ve seen what happens to a team that ignores 30 years of analytical progress. Royals fans understand the value of a walk, because they’ve seen first-hand the consequences of a dismissive approach to plate discipline.”

3. Joe Posnanski

Posnanski is a part of #2 above, but his greatness deserves its own spot. Pos left the Kansas City Star for Sports Illustrated in 2009, and no one was quite sure what that would mean for his unparalleled coverage of the Royals. Thankfully, Pos is apparently a compulsive writer, prolifically commenting about anything and everything at his blog, and since Joe still lives in KC and attends Royals games as a fan, the Royals remain a part of his writing universe. I have a voracious appetite for baseball writing, but if I could only read one scribe, the choice would be easy.

4. Buck O’Neil’s Legacy & The Negro Leagues Baseball Museum

Buck has been gone for four years now, but his legacy thrives in Kansas City. The Royals honor him every home game by awarding tickets to someone who “embodies an aspect of O’Neil’s spirit” through the Buck O’Neil Legacy Seat program. Barbecue baron Ollie Gates has stepped up and is currently funding rehabilitation of the old Paseo YMCA to turn it into the Buck O’Neil Education & Research Center, and on one side of the building is a new mural of Buck keeping an eye on the 18th & Vine district. Buck’s spirit is most alive at the Negro Leagues Baseball Museum, and though the museum has seen turmoil since Buck’s death, we should not lose sight of what a treasure it is. No struggle for power or financial woes can eclipse the vitality of the story the museum tells. Just as baseball itself is bigger than the many scandals it has endured, the inspirational story of Negro Leagues baseball is bigger than any problems at the museum.

5. Zack Greinke

Zack may have ruffled a few feathers this season when he voiced frustrations about waiting on a youth movement that may not blossom until after his current contract is up. But the alternative is someone who does not care about winning and/or puts on a filter to ensure they remain uncontroversial (i.e. boring). If Zack had a stricter filter, he would not have told the New York press that he did not want to win with the Yankees but with the Royals. For a franchise that has gotten so much wrong, Zack is the best current reminder that sometimes things go right. And if you think Zack was not good in 2010, I would suggest you take a deeper look at his numbers. In a year that he was not his best, he was still excellent. Now if Dayton Moore can extend Zack instead of trading him, maybe Moore can make my thanks giving list next year.

6. Unions, Cowboys, Packers, Blues, Monarchs, & A’s, Oh My

1888 Kansas City Cowboys

The history of professional baseball in Kansas City is long and rich, and learning about the teams that preceded the Royals provides context that enhances the present. Pro baseball first came to KC in 1884 in the form of the Union Association “Unions,” and Kansas City has hosted pro baseball every year since with the exception of 1968. We have enjoyed more than our share of great players and personalities: by the count of Curt Nelson, director of the Royals Hall of Fame, 43 members of the baseball Hall of Fame have ties to Kansas City teams.

7. Kansas City Baseball Historical Society & SABR Monarchs Chapter

In that vein, I’m thankful for a couple of organizations geared to people who enjoy the history of the game in KC. The Kansas City Baseball Historical Society formed in 2008, and host an impressive list of Kansas City baseball names as guest speakers at monthly meetings. Moderator David Starbuck does a fantastic job, and the guests relive fascinating and often hilarious stories of KC’s baseball past. The group also puts on a large Kansas City A’s reunion every summer. The Society For American Baseball Research (SABR) is a national institution, represented in KC by the Monarchs Chapter. The chapter meets twice a year, and also pulls in engaging speakers.

8. Kauffman Stadium & Royals Fans Therein

Kauffman Stadium may not get the recognition it deserves on the national level, but Royals fans know what a gem the park is. The recent renovations brought the amenities up to date while maintaining the soul and feel of the park where Royals fans have made memories for 35+ years. On a nice day, there is nowhere else in the world I’d rather be. I am thankful for the Royals fans that keep going to the K and cheering the Royals, losing season after losing season. They are a friendly and good-natured bunch. Relative to the size of our city and the product on the field, I find our attendance numbers impressive. And if #1 on this list pans out the way we all hope, the K will really start rocking again.

During the offseason we have been taking a look at the past, giving readers a timeline of St. Louis baseball throughout history. Last time we learned about how Roger Bresnahan helped create catcher’s gear and Branch Rickey’s start in baseball.

In the executive branch of the Baseball Hall Of Fame there are many legendary baseball names. Some were commissioners such as Ford Frick and Kenesaw Landis. Some were owners such as Tom Yawkey and Walter O’Malley. However, if you as a baseball fan are unaware of the impact that Branch Rickey has played in baseball, you have missed a tremendous story. He is definitely worthy of his own story, but it is safe to say you readers will be reading his name a lot over the next few weeks from me.

"Gorgeous George" Sisler

In 1915, George Sisler, who had been signed with Rickey’s help and played in half of the season, was already showing signs of the player that was to come. He hit .285 that first year while also pitching 70 innings over 15 games (yes, he was also a pitcher his first two years in the bigs). Over the next five years Sisler emerged as one of the league’s top offensive threats.

1920 was an incredible season for Sisler. Not only did he bat .407 with 19 home runs (remember – this was the Dead Ball Era – home runs were not expected from anyone) and a 1.082 on-base plus slugging percentage, but he slapped 257 hits and picked up 399 total bases. In my research I was shocked to see that “Gorgeous George” did not pick up the 1920 MVP award. Then I caught on – the MVP was not awarded between the years of 1914 and 1922. Tricky!

Unfortunately for Sisler and the Browns, one great player does not a contender make. In fact, the Browns never broke 80 wins in this time period. Better days were ahead, but they would happen without their trailblazing general manager.

After the 1915 season a shake-up happened in the Browns front office. Robert Hedges sold his share in the team to Phil Ball, and Mr. Ball wasted no time making changes. His first act was to remove Rickey from his managerial position and relegate him to just working in the front office and working with purchasing and moving excess minor league players. Why the switch? The answer is prohibition.

Phil Ball was a former cowhand whose lifestyle never changed after he made his millions. Branch was a prohibitionist lawyer who had at one time toured the country in support of a national ban on alcohol. Ball was not going to have someone like that on his team, and said as much. Rickey was hidden away in the Browns front office for the entire 1916 season, and thought he was going to be stuck there forever until he received a visit from another attorney – James C. Jones, attorney for the St. Louis Cardinals.

Jones laid it out like this: the Cardinals had played miserably since their inception in 1899, finishing higher than fourth one time in eighteen years. Helene Britton, who had inherited the team six years ago, was looking to sell, and unless someone came up with the $350,000 that Mrs. Britton was hoping for, the Cardinals would probably be moved out of St. Louis. There was a plan in place, however, and if it worked it would make history. So Jones made it simple for Rickey – if it works and the team stayed in St. Louis, would he switch sides and take over as team president?

Rickey did not hesitate. It hardly mattered what this grand scheme was, because at that point all that mattered was getting out of the Browns’ front office and away from Phil Ball’s unwavering anger towards Rickey’s prohibition ways. As it was, however, the investors that were hoping to buy the team had a revolutionary idea that would change baseball, and they simply called it ‘the Knothole Gang.’ What would happen is that the public would be able to buy stock in the Cardinals, and in exchange for every two shares bought, a season ticket would be given to an underprivileged boy in the St. Louis area. The brilliance of this plan was that not only would the franchise would be able to stay in town, but with so many stockholders now based in St. Louis and all of the Knothole Gang tickets, the fanbase took a tremendous swing from watching the mediocre Browns to the abysmal Cardinals.

Rickey making the jump from the American to the National League St. Louis team did not provide the immediate boost that the Cardinals pretty desperately needed. Eventually the Knothole Gang idea took off, but it took a season to really get going. 1917 was not kind to the Cardinals, and things were made worse when the American League got its revenge for luring Rickey to the NL by snatching manager Miller Huggins away with a huge contract and a chance to manage the Yankees. To make matters worse, World War 1 called and stole away Rickey to train soldiers in the field of chemical warfare, thereby causing him to miss the entirety of the 1918 season. Luckily for the Cardinals, the war ended and Rickey returned to the team before the start of the 1919 season.

Rogers Hornsby

Before the 1919 season, the franchise was starting to circle the drain. The vultures gathered, offering exorbitant amounts for basically the only player on the team that had any kind of start power – Rogers Hornsby. The New York Giants called a meeting with Rickey and offered the Cardinals $150,000 – the exact amount of the Cardinals’ debt – in exchange for Hornsby. Rickey said no. Rickey then turned the tables and offered the Giants $50,000 for a youngster named Frankie Frisch. Charles Stoneham, owner of the Giants, was dumbfounded. Rickey didn’t have $50,000 for some kid that had just been signed and had zero experience in the majors. Rickey didn’t have a quarter for a meal!

Determined to land his man, Stoneham upped his offer for Hornsby – $300,000, take it or leave it. John McGraw, the Giants owner, told Stoneham he was out of his mind. No player was worth that much, much less a player that had yet to really earn any recognition. Rickey held firm. He wanted Frisch. Baffled and outraged, the Giants went to the papers, declaring Rickey and the entire Cardinals organization a bunch of fools. Rickey knew better. The Cardinals needed a savior. They needed money. They needed talent.

They needed a farm system.

Rickey launched his plan. He sold 4,000 more shares of stock in the team and raised $100,000 in capital. New majority owner and team president Sam Breadon had given Rickey full reign to do as he pleased with the team, and with that in mind went to work. The first order of business was to convince Phil Ball and the Browns to let the Cardinals rent Sportsman’s Park for home games so they could sell League Park and get out of the red. After the Board of Education and Public Service Corporation bought the land for a combined $275,000, the team was back in the black and ready to get busy with this new plan of purchasing a farm system.

After the 1919 season Rickey purchased half of the Fort Smith, Arkansas franchise in the Class C Western Association. With that agreement the organization said they would not sell minor leaguers out from under Rickey’s nose. The main problem was that this was a Class C team. What would happen when the players were ready to move up the ladder to the next level of the minors? It looked like Rickey needed to buy another team. Find out more about this one next week!

Angela Weinhold covers the Cardinals for i70baseball.com and writes at Cardinal Diamond Diaries. You may follow her on Twitter here or follow Cardinal Diamond Diaries here.