Tag Archive | "Bet"

To Buy or Not To Buy?

The Major League Baseball non-waiver trade deadline is still a couple of months away, but the St. Louis Cardinals have to be contemplating the direction this 2012 season will take. And the way things have gone so far, it may not be an easy decision.

It is fair to say there is no way the Cardinals will be sellers, even with the absurd rash of injuries they have endured. A team that sells is a team that has no hope to make it to the postseason and a few expensive, desirable players that are nearing the end of a contract. This does not describe the Cards in any way. While they may have a handful of big contracts due to come off the books at the end of this season, it does not appear like they are contracts the team would be able to move without eating significant money and obtaining an upgrade at the same time. Plus, the Cardinals are still in second place in a weak division—far from out of it.

The Chicago Cubs are already 10 games out of first and are well under .500 after a lengthy losing streak last week. But they’re in full rebuild mode, and everyone knows it. They are sellers. The same goes for the San Diego Padres and Minnesota Twins. These teams need to shed payroll, build prospects, and plan for contention years down the road. The Cardinals are still good enough to win now, and are positioned to win in the near future as well.

So will the Cards be buyers at the deadline? That’s where the tough call comes in. They do have needs: bullpen depth, starting pitching that can eat innings, veteran bench help, stability at second base and center field. But they have a problem: many of those holes can be filled by guys they already have on their roster; unfortunately those guys are currently on the disabled list.

This isn’t a newsflash to anyone who has been paying attention. The Cards’ DL looks like their active roster, and their active roster looks like their Triple A roster.

And therein lies the problem: Do the Cardinals stand pat and bet on injured players not only returning to the lineup but also returning to form and contributing to a team committed to winning now? Or do they try to acquire talent (at the expense of prospects, mind you) to keep the team up in the near-term, and deal with extra players if and when they have to? Let’s not forget the calendar just flipped to June. There’s no way this team has seen the last of the injury bug. If Matt Holliday or Rafael Furcal or Yadier Molina goes down, this team is screwed…with a capital F.

Things were a lot different last year. When dealing with ineffectiveness—such as the Cards did with Ryan Franklin, Trever Miller, Brian Tallet, et al.—and knowing they had depth, moving guys like Colby Rasmus to acquire the role players needed for success was easier. But the Cardinals are short on depth right now. The depth is in the starting lineup. And the minor leagues are nearly tapped, at least of guys who are close enough to ready for the big leagues. Who could they possibly move at this point?

Players will be available come July but the Cards must be sensible in their dealings. The injuries this year have been of epic proportions. Maybe karma has come to collect after an otherworldly 2011. Or maybe this is just a test, like 10.5 games out in late August was. Hope the Cardinals studied this year as well as they did then.

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Looking At The Rookies – AL

Royals fans are no strangers to watching rookies this season. Many teams are starting to give young players a chance to prove themselves but there are a few players that have been hanging around all season that are starting to turn heads.

Aaron Crow

As we enter the end of the season and look forward to the playoffs for some teams and towards 2012 for others, it is time that the rookies of this season start getting some recognition and find the spotlight falling on them.

Here are three offensive players and three pitchers in the American League that qualify for the Jackie Robinson Award given to the top rookie in each league. If you are not watching these guys by now, it is time to start.

The offensive rookies in the American League are a bit more clear cut. The Royals own Eric Hosmer is putting together a solid season with a balanced attack and showing Royals fans that first base is a position they can get behind. Angels fans would tell you that first base is definitely the position of the future for them as well as Mark Trumbo is killing the ball in Anaheim. Toronto, on the other hand, has a catcher that is showing the he can handle the bat as well, and J.P. Arencibia is getting noticed quickly.

The Odds On Favorite For Rookie Of The Year
Sorry Royals fans, it is hard to argue with what Mark Trumbo is doing for the Angels. He leads the American League rookies in Games Played and At Bats but there is a reason for that. His .261 batting average and .301 on base percentage leave some room for improvement, but his power numbers are nothing to sneeze at. With 20 doubles, 22 home runs, 63 runs batted in, and a .495 slugging percentage have him well in place to grab the Jackie Robinson Award in the American League this year.

The Runner Up
Royals fans can relax a little bit as Eric Hosmer is not too far behind Trumbo. Hosmer is posting a .282 batting average while knocking 10 home runs and driving in 47 runs batted in. Add in 19 doubles and a total of 93 hits and you can bet that the future has arrived in Kansas City and the future looks bright.

He Deserves A Look
Toronto’s young backstop, J.P. Arencibia may not be hitting for a good average, his is only .216, but what he is hitting is going a long way. He is second to Trumbo for the most home runs by a rookie in the American League with 18 and pairs that with 52 runs batted in. The drop off from there is tremendous, however, as he only posts 13 doubles and 3 triples, leaving him with a .452 slugging percentage. His on base percentage plunges below .300 and he is striking out at an alarming rate. The Blue Jays have a solid power hitter on their hands, they just hope he can learn some patience.

If it seems the offensive rookies are a bit sparse in the American League, the pitching prospects across the league are enough to get any baseball fan excited about the future. The Royals put their share of pitchers into any conversation with Aaron Crow, Danny Duffy, and Tim Collins. Jeremy Hellickson and Ivan Nova are both posting double digit wins for the Rays and Yankees, respectively. Jordan Walden, meanwhile, is closing games at a solid pace for the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. Up north in Seattle, Michael Pineda is racking up the innings, and strikeouts, at a rapid pace.

The Odds On Favorite For Rookie Of The Year
Speaking of Michael Pineda, he is running away with this category in 2011. He leads all rookies with 130 innings pitched and 133 strikeouts. He has only walked 43 batters and given up 12 home runs. He is posting a 3.53 earned run average and has won 9 games for a team that is struggling to win games as it is. Pineda is showing some dominance at times and not showing any signs of slowing down, at least until his pitching arm falls off.

The Runner Up
It is Jordan Walden of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim that is equally as impressive as Pineda. Walden has posted 25 saves in 32 chances, posted a 3 wins, 3 losses record. Over the course of 45 innings pitched, he has struck out 48 hitters and only walked 18. With only one home run allowed and a 2.80 earned run average, the Angels have a closer they can count on for a long time to come.

He Deserves A Look
Call me old fashioned, but I still like a pitcher that wins games without giving up a ton of runs, even if he is not striking out everyone he faces. For that reason, take a look at the Rays’ pitcher Jeremy Hellickson who has won 10 games over 7 losses while posting a 3.15 earned run average. He is going deep into games with 122.2 innings pitched and has struck out 79 hitters while walking 45. He will not bring home any hardware, but he’s worth keeping an eye on.

Around the league there are pitchers and hitters that will look to capitalize on solid rookie seasons and avoid the Sophomore Slump. While these players are showcasing themselves around the American League, it is important to take a look at one player that is not on this list that will mean something more to our i70baseball fans. Here is our honorable mention.

i70baseball Honorable Mention
The honorable mention here goes to a player that is pitching impressively despite not being in a key role, which will keep him out of discussions based on stats. Aaron Crow may be the closer of the future in Kansas City after pitching his way to an earned run average below 2.00 and striking out 49 hitters in 51.1 innings pitched. Crow has allowed five home runs this season. He has scattered 37 hits over his innings of work and taken the mound 43 times. Crow will keep fans excited to see the bullpen doors swing open in Kansas City for many future seasons.

As the season comes to an end, keep an eye on these seven players and their impact on their teams and the league when the dust settles. One of these players will take home a Jackie Robinson Award and etch their name into the history books. The rest will attempt to build on a solid rookie campaign and make a career out of it. Time will tell how well these names will become known.

Bill Ivie is the editor here at I-70 Baseball as well as the Assignment Editor for BaseballDigest.com.
He is the host of I-70 Radio, hosted every week on BlogTalkRadio.com.
Follow him on Twitter here.

Posted in RoyalsComments (2)

The Next Prince Of St. Louis….Prince Albert Or Prince Fielder

As I watched the Brewers handle the Cardinals over the weekend I began giving a lot of thought to the idea of a new Crown Prince reigning over the Gateway City for the next five years. And the more I thought about it the more it made sense to me. Now before everyone gets all pissy and homerish about the idea of Pujols leaving or Fielder coming to St. Louis (he HAS matured), I am not saying the Cardinals should take this approach but rather it would be irresponsible for them not to consider it. Take a step back yourself, think about it rationally and you SHOULD come to the conclusion that this is not a bad scenario for the Cardinals.

The 2011 Cardinals said good bye to defense as a priority long before opening day so why not continue this trend into 2012. Let the offense to win you games while hoping it out weighs and over shadows the D. Besides, how many games would it cost the Cardinals by swapping out Pujols Gold Glove for Fielder’s lead one? Hard to say, yes there would be a marked dropped off, but would it cost the Cardinals 10 games? The Division? The World Series? Doubtful.

The best approach is to look at this purely from a statistical point of view. Not 331/42/121 vs. 279/38/105 (Pujols’ & Fielder’s averages over the last five full seasons). But rather 31 years vs. 27 years (respective ages), 10 years vs. 5 years (potential contract length) and $300 million vs. $135 million (value of contract). Yes there is concern that Fielder may break down sooner rather than later, but if that is the case, after 5 years (potentially…I know he is a Boras client) you have him off the books. If Albert gets his 10 years, when his inevitable decline begins the Cardinals will still have at minimum 4+ years left and a lot of money still owed. Yes the baseball stat line in heavily weighted towards Pujols now but will that be the case in 3 years? Can the Cardinals afford to take that bet? Mozeliak and crew need to think about 2017-2023, not just 2012-2017.

In five years who knows what the landscape of baseball is going to look like. Holiday, Waino, Molina, Shelby Miller, Jaime Garcia, Zach Cox will hopefully all be fixtures on the Major League roster. Would you as a fan give up most of that to give Pujols his $30 million? Because guess what…that group is going to command its fair share of cash as well. We all remember the McGwire years. It was an amazing time in Cardinal baseball…but not a winning time. St. Louis must decide if it wants to be a side show on the MLB stage or the featured act, contending for the World Series years in and year out.

Besides, and I know it is sac religious to say, but the Cardinals have 1 World Series with Pujols and ZERO playoff games in the last 4 years. Prince Fielder is younger, cheaper (not by a lot), will command less years and is an option Cardinal fans should embrace and Cardinal ownership should explore.

Just my thoughts…if you’re smart you’ll most likely agree. If not keep on reading my articles and you’ll get up to speed.

Follow me on Twitter @SportsbyWeeze or check out my thoughts on the Rams at RamsHerd.com

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When Will We See Mike Moustakas

Mike Moustakas was selected in the 1st round (No. 2 overall) of the June 2007 First-Year Player Draft out of Chatsworth (Calif.) High School. He is currently playing third base for the Triple-A Omaha Royals in the Pacific Coast League. He is a big kid (5’11” – 230 lbs) with plenty of power and capable of staying at third base. According to Baseball America, he was rated the fourth best prospect in the Royals minor league system.

Moustakas tore up Double-A pitching. He was the Texas League player of the week twice, Mid-Season All-Star, and participated in the Future Stars Games during All-Star week. It was time for him to move on. There was nothing left for Moustakas to prove. Check out his stats below, they tell it all.

AA AVG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO OBP SLG OPS
Stats .347 259 58 90 25 0 21 76 26 42 .413 .687 1.100

On July 15th, Moustakas was promoted to Triple-A Omaha. At the time of his call-up he was leading the Texas League in home runs and RBI. Since he cruised through Double-A with no problem, the sudden lack of production was a concern. Through 55 at bats he was batting .218 with 10 strikeouts. Moustakas will find a way to turn things around soon. Last weekend series at Memphis, he looked like he has all season. He batted .333 with three home runs and four RBI.

AAA AVG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO OBP SLG OPS
Stats .250 88 14 22 5 0 5 11 1 12 .256 .477 .733

The Royals General Manager Dayton Moore suggests there are no plans on calling up Moustakas in September. The Royals want to give him more time to develop. Since he will not be called up, this tells me he has little chance on making the team next year out of spring training. If Moustakas was in next year’s plan, they would want a preview of what he can do. He will have to give the Royals every reason not to send him down out of spring training. I am positive the Royals are hoping he can be ready and be the opening day starting third baseman in 2011. His only competition is Wilson Betemit and Josh Fields who is currently on the 60 day DL with a hip injury.

If Moustakas doesn’t make the opening day roster, he could be a June call-up. Once he is called up, he will be the third baseman of the future and should be there to stay. With all the power hitting prospects the Royals have, there could be a slight chance he could get moved to the outfield. I would not be surprised if that happens but with the move of Alex Gordon to the outfield, third base is his to lose.

Side Note: Moustakas turns 22 in September. The average age of baseball rookies to make their major league debut is 24 years old.

So I think Moustakas will reach the major leagues June of 2011. What do you think? When will Mike Moustakas reach the major leagues?

Total AVE AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO OBP SLG OPS
Minors .323 347 72 112 30 0 26 87 27 54 .376 .634 1.010

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