Strange things happen when the baseball gods begin waving their magic bats over the otherwise earthly progressions of the game.

Sometimes the ball bounces funny; sometimes it doesn’t bounce off anything but a seat in the stands. Sometimes it takes an odd, fateful curve fair…or foul. Good teams lose games they shouldn’t, bad teams win games they shouldn’t, and the order of the standings can look completely different from week to week.

But baseball is and forever will be a numbers game. Advanced baseball statistics are a cottage industry these days, yet a .300 average, 30 home runs, and 100 RBI will never be looked at as a bad year.

Other numbers seem to just come from nowhere. The St. Louis Cardinals, most recently, were the direct object of such weirdness. By this point, the tale is well-known: 10.5 games back on August 25; three games back with five to play; clinching on the now-infamous night of Game 162. It took 11 postseason wins to clinch their 11th World Series championship in 2011, known forever for the Game 6 heroics that culminated with David Freese’s dramatic walk-off home run in, of course, the 11th inning.

That kind of stuff never happens more than once if it happens at all. That’s why it was so magical. But even the best of the best and the worst of the worst can’t keep baseball from bringing it weird every once in a while. Last season, the Pittsburgh Pirates lost a heartbreaking 19-inning game to the Atlanta Braves on a possibly bad call at the plate. The Pirates never recovered, and soon skidded out of playoff contention—a place they had not been since 1992, when they lost the NLCS to none other than the Atlanta Braves on a Game 7 walk-off single that scored former Pirate and notorious base path clogger Sid Bream. This year, the Pirates and Cardinals hooked up for their own 19 inning affair. The winner would take two of three in the series. It meant the difference between a tie for the second Wild Card spot or the Bucs leaving St. Louis with their heads held high and some breathing room. And the Pirates’ fortunes were different this time around; they beat the Cards to claim a two game lead on the playoff spot. Yet somehow, less than a week later, the Cardinals have leapfrogged the Pirates in a four-game swing that has the Redbirds out in front in the second Wild Card spot by two games. Sometimes even momentum gets smacked back to the ground by karma.

To get there, the Cardinals beat the NL Central-leading Cincinnati Reds 8-5 Friday night. But this wasn’t a typical victory. The Reds led 5-2 after five innings, and the game was inching dangerously close to getting into the hands of the vaunted Cincy bullpen. Starter Mat Latos was cruising along, as he had done for the entire month of August to this point: going into Friday’s game, Latos had an ERA of less than one over four starts and averaged over seven innings per start. Then, almost out of nowhere, the Cardinals caught fire and torched the Reds in the sixth. When it was all said and done, Latos finished only five innings and allowed seven earned runs, equaling what he had allowed over his last six outings combined.

So now, the Cardinals find themselves looking at that magical date again: August 25. Except they are currently in a playoff spot, and are only one and a half games back of the Braves for the top Wild Card slot. If the season ended today, the Braves and Cards would play each other for the NL Wild Card. Funny how that works, huh? The Cards are also only six games behind the Reds in the Central. They don’t need to rely on a miracle run this year. But that doesn’t mean they don’t have one in them.

Last year, the Cardinals were a team that exceeded expectations at the end of the year to do what they did. In 2012, they have never quite lived up to expectations. Their offensive output and pitching prowess have not translated into the win-loss record everyone expected. The Cards constantly seem to be getting in their own way when it comes to putting together a run of victories. Their current winning streak stands at four, and this would be the best possible time to win six in a row or 10 of 11 or something. Is it possible? Certainly. Is it likely? Who knows…

But that’s why they play 162. The Cardinals got a big win Friday night; a win by the Reds Saturday renders it almost meaningless. And then they’ll do it all over again on Sunday. A pitch here, a bloop there…win or lose, as long as there are outs to give and games to play, nothing is impossible and nothing is decided.

Chris Reed also writes for InsideSTL Mondays and Bird Brained whenever he feels like it. Follow him on Twitter at @birdbrained.

After two come-from-behind wins against the Florida Marlins heading into the All-Star break, things were looking up for the St. Louis Cardinals. Starting pitching was performing very well, guys were getting healthy, and the bullpen was finding some semblance of normalcy. Hopes were high for after the break, with as near a healthy roster as the Cardinals have had all season, and 9 straight games within the division to start the break.

Kharma is a funny thing.

It’s like the baseball gods dumped a ying on every yang used up during the 2011 historic run. The now healthy Cardinals stormed out of the second half gate in not-so-impressive fashion, getting swept by the Reds. Then they dropped two of three in Milwaukee. And the one game they did win required a two run ninth-inning rally to take the lead. The five games lost were lost by a total of six runs.

I can not resign myself to blame solely kharma, the baseball gods, luck, or small sample sizes. Something is going on with this team. A few  observations on the team and then observations on Matheny.

1. Who is providing leadership to this team?
Much was made during the 2011 season about the right “clubhouse mix”. Chris Carpenter was the unquestioned fiery leader of the team who could give a good kick in the pants when needed. His energy on the mound during the stretch run and playoffs was desperately needed for what seemed like three months of constant elimination games.

I would contend that Carpenter’s presence and leadership has been sorely missed this year.

Also, Lance Berkman provided great leadership as well. Though funny and able to keep things light when needed, he also would stand up in the tough times and answer the hard questions . He brought about a great culture of ownership and accountability instead of blame. He has been out of action since mid-May and is struggling mightily in his return. Providing leadership is challenging while rehabbing and trying to get yourself to an acceptable level of performance.

Albert Pujols (while often seemingly aloof and privy to a separate set of rules) no doubt commanded excellence from his teammates, and hated to lose. Even during a down season, he was still a feared hitter that could carry the team on his back for stretches at a time.

Those are 3 key pieces missing this season, along with a rookie manager and inexperienced pitching coach.

Could lack of leadership, this intangible quality unable to be measured by statistics, play a key part in the reason why the Cardinals are second in NL run  differential, but have the 7th best record?

2012 National League Run Differential

Washington     +65     record 53-36

St. Louis           +64     record 47-45

Cincinnati       +43      record 51-40

Pittsburgh       +34     record  51-40

Atlanta             +28     record 49-41

Since a 20-11 start, the Cardinals are 27-34. Over that stretch, they have been held to 3 or fewer runs 33 times. Hardly the record of a team leading the league in most offensive categories, and surprising for a team that has received 14 quality starts over the last 17 games. What is going on?

I don’t know if the team is tired or Matheny’s more relaxed style has created a real or perceived lack of urgency. I’m waiting to see someone, please anyone, stand up and get angry to put a fire under this team.

It is a team of talented, yet seemingly laid-back guys. None of us are in the locker room to know what goes on behind the scenes, but we can see what is happening on the field. Which player has vocalized anger about a sustained period of mediocre play? Why is Tyler Greene telling Fox Sports Midwest that he’s not disappointed with his performance this yea?  Who among David Freese, Carlos Beltran, Yadi Molina, Adam Wainwright, Rafael Furcal, Matt Holliday, Lance Berkman, Skip Schumaker, Jon Jay, and Jason Motte is going to stand up and and say it’s time for something to change?

I don’t expect it from Freese, Beltran, Holliday, Schuamker, or Jay. They seem like pretty laid-back even keeled guys. I would suggest Molina and Wainwright realize it is their time to step up and challenge this team to play to its capability. 47-45 is simply unacceptable for the amount of talent put on the field night in and night out.

You may say I’m being unfair because of the injuries and inexperienced bullpen. The bullpen has not been the problem over the last 6 games, or this month even. The club has a 1.78 bullpen ERA for the month of June. The problem is good hitters not stepping up and getting timely hits. The team hit .178 (8 for 45) with runners in scoring position over the first five games back from the break. Think about that for a moment, 45 ABs with RISP in 5 games and only 8 hits.

Veteran defenders have been botching routing plays (which leads into my next point)….somebody needs to wake this team up.

2.Beltran and Furcal look tired, or are at least playing tired
Carlos Beltran hit 19 home runs in his first 198 at-bats this season. He has 1 over his last 117 through July 18th game. He looks tired. He needs a rest. Watching him run down balls in right field is not pretty. He is slow and laborious. So instead of Matheny resting Beltran after admitting he was exhausted after the All-Star festivities in Kansas City, he starts him 4 out of 5 games. Two of those starts were in center field, which takes a lot greater defensive toll on a player. It makes no sense.

On June 10, Rafael Furcal was batting .304/.358/.421/.779. Since then, he has hit .207/.309/.223/.532 with 0 HR and 8 RBI in 121 AB. He has also made several key errors in the last two series, including two in yesterday’s disastrous 4-run 1st inning. Unfortunately, Tyler Greene has not lived up to Mo’s expectations even without LaRussa and Descalso has not hit well enough to spell Furcal much at short.

This was the risk the club took filling these two spots with veterans, and although they have played in a lot of games, the level of play is starting to wane. Hopefully Beltran will not experience the same second half fade Berkman did last-season (but that is next week’s article.)

3. Matheny factor
No reasonable human being expected Mike Matheny to be Tony LaRussa during his first year on the job. But Mozeliak wanted him, and he assured Mozeliak he was ready for the challenge. He inherited a 116 million dollar payroll team, poised to make a deep run at a World Series repeat. This was not a normal gig for a rookie manager.

In evaluating managers, I tend to look at 4 key areas they provide the most contribution:

1. Player motivation   2. Game prep and planning   3. Tactical in-game decisions   4. Keeping players fresh and performing at their best

Underlying all of that is the level of innate leadership ability to be able to rally the troops and lead them in each of the 4 areas above.

We were promised Matheny had that leadership ability and everything else could be learned on the job. To me that meant #’s 1 and 2 above could be handled well from day 1. I assumed #’s 3 and 4 would be learned on the job.

In regards to #1, the players like Matheny. But there is no doubt a different pressure level than under TLR. Maybe in the long run, this will pay off. Right now, there are a lot more L’s than W’s piling up.

#2 I can’t really speak to much from where I sit.

#3 has me constantly puzzled. It’s easier to play armchair quarterback than make the tough calls in the heat of the moment, but my gosh, Matheny has made a lot of calls that have Little League managers scratching their head. The team runs into a lot of outs at home plate on infield ground balls, there have been a lot of double steals gone wrong, and very interesting roster moves where he uses up a hitter early in a tie game, or leaves a reliever in for an extended period of time for unfavorable matchups. Also, there was the decision to play Carlos Beltran in center field in back-to-back games while telling the media he is exhausted and needing some time off.

The latest in-game decision that really had me scratching my head was pinch hitting Berkman yesterday with the bases loaded, two outs, and down by a run in the 9th inning. Berkman has looked terrible since coming back from the DL. He admitted after the game that his bat speed is not back to what it used to be.

Why would Matheny put him in that spot knowing that? Worse yet if he didn’t know it and put in a player at less than full strength in a game-deciding situation? He acted like a novice roto ball manager instead of manager of the defending world champions trying to win a division.

See Beltran comment above in regards to #4. However, Matheny has attempted to give guys regular days off, and for that I applaud him. There just doesn’t seem to be any kind of rhythm to it yet. I hope it comes soon.

What bothers me the most in regards to Matheny are his comments to the media. Same canned responses night after night. “We have a good team”, “We haven’t played our best baseball yet”, “We are going to get better”….

How late in the season do you get by with the “we haven’t played our best baseball yet” argument? We are staring August in the face. I know this seems pretty harsh towards Matheny. I have been a vocal and adamant supporter since day one. He needs time to develop in-game management and getting the most from his lineup day in and day out.

But he was brought to the Cardinals to lead. Now is the time. Show us some emotion that you are unhappy with the way things are going instead of the nightly platitudes about how good you think this team is.

Instill a sense of urgency. Find your mojo, Matheny. The Cardinals desperately need it.

The St. Louis Cardinals find themselves one win from their 18th World Series appearance after beating the Milwaukee Brewers 7-1 Friday night to take a three games to two lead in the NLCS. The Cards got timely hits, capitalized on numerous Milwaukee mistakes, and turned in another stellar bullpen performance in the last NLCS game at Busch Stadium for 2011.

It is interesting to note that three times in the last three weeks, the Cardinals have played a home game that could have turned out to be the final game at Busch for the year. Each could also have been the final home game for Albert Pujols and/or Tony LaRussa (among others) as a Cardinal. Yet they have won each of these games, and eventually clinched some type of victory that allows this 2011 season to continue on to the next level. And they have to do it once again.

Maybe it was a nod from the baseball gods that the Cardinals won. October 14th is the anniversary of another pivotal Game 5: the 1985 NLCS. And with Ozzie Smith in the house to throw out he first pitch while Jack Buck’s golden voice set the scene over the video replay from 26 years ago, it really felt like there was no way the Cardinals could lose this game. The difference in this year’s Game 5, of course, was the absence of the heart-stopping, dramatic ending. But a win is a win, and the most unenviable position imaginable would be having to go win two games in a row in Milwaukee in order to win the series. Instead, the Cards enjoy one more “Happy Flight” that hopefully isn’t their last.

That’s not to say the Cards have no shot at winning at Miller Park. Obviously they’ve already won one game there this series and they won several there during the regular season. If nothing drastic happens, the Cardinals definitely have the better starting pitcher going in Game 6 (Edwin Jackson over Shawn Marcum) and at the very least carry a slight advantage for Game 7 (Chris Carpenter over Yovani Gallardo). And with momentum on their side, the Cards have to be the favorites—if only by a hair—to win this thing and move on to the World Series.

Had the Cardinals not given up the lead in Game 4, all the discussion about games in Milwaukee would be moot; they would have wrapped up the series Friday. But it was the Brewers who played themselves out of the game this time. They committed four errors, their pitching wasn’t very good, and they came up empty in clutch situations. As a result, their backs are against the wall for however long this series lasts.

And now, the NLCS shifts back to Milwaukee. Maybe the Cards can wrap this thing up Sunday and give everyone all the rest they need back home before the World Series starts up in St. Louis. Maybe we’ll see a go-ahead bomb from Pujols while Nyjer Morgan watches it fly over his head then throws his glove down in disgust.

Regardless, Game 5 was just another must-win game for the St. Louis Cardinals. They’re probably getting pretty used to them these days, considering every game has been a must-win since the end of August. And that’s how they should view Game 6 as well.

I live in a rural part of Kansas. The high school of the town I live in plays 8-Man Football. When it comes to television providers my choices are Dish Network or Direct TV. I have been with Dish Network for several years. When the MLB Network was launched in 2009 I gave Dish Network an earful for not carrying the MLB Network. After all, I had access to NFL Network, NBA Network, and NHL Network, yet I didn’t have the network of my favorite sport. Yet, I stayed with Dish because I certainly wasn’t paying what DirectTV wanted for their services. And really, it wasn’t worth a vacation day for me to wait on a technician to come out and make the switch.

Which is why I was elated when I saw MLB Network appear on my program guide last Thursday. To my wife’s chagrin this will make this coming off-season a lot easier to handle. It also allows me to keep up on other baseball teams. I could do that before with the internet, but it takes a lot more effort to do that. One of the teams I like to follow is the Phillies. I have more than one friend in real life that is Phillies fan. I converse with several more via Twitter and other social media. I like good pitching and the Phillies have a lot of it. MLB Network shows a lot of Phillies games and this allows to me to watch more of them.

The Phillies are in a good place. All 5 of their starters would be the ace on the Royals pitching staff. Weird stuff happens in the MLB play-offs, but with that pitching staff anything short of a title would be a disappointment. However, I recently read this article at Grantland by the Dean of Royals Bloggers Rany Jazayerli. Read it for yourself but he essentially says the likelihood of the Phillies continuing their dominance is anything but a given.

The purpose of this Phillies love fest is not to relive the 1980 World Series where the Phillies and Royals paths crossed. It’s to compare two franchises at different ends of a spectrum. Looking at the information Rany lays out in his article. Where would you rather have your favorite franchise? Like the Phillies with a World Series title at hand but trending down. Or like the Royals near the bottom of the league in everything but trending up.

If I were buying stock I would buy the Royals. However, fandom in the sports world does not have inherent value. Winning a World Series involves being good, and being lucky. Outside the Yankees and Cardinals Word Series Championships are hard to come by. The Royals have one in their 42 seasons. Winning a World Series is the goal of a baseball team. Having a great organization top to bottom is good because it increases the likelihood of winning a World Series, not the other way around. Maybe my point of reference is off because I’ve been watching bad baseball for so many years. But if the Baseball Gods promised me a Royals World Series trophy in exchange for five years of 90+ loss seasons I think I would agree to that.

At some point Albert Pujols will bat tonight. He may start, or it might be during a pitching change in the 6^th inning. If the St. Louis Baseball Gods have their say it will be a pinch-hit AB in the 9^th with the game on the line. Regardless of the situation, more importantly regardless of the outcome, Pujols will receive a Hero’s welcome. From listening to local sports radio today it is as if El Hombre, The Mang, was returning home victorious from conquests afar. In similar fashion, local TV news outlets paint a picture of Pujols riding into Busch Stadium atop a magnificent steed with the head of a dragon in his saddle bag.

I am as happy as any Cardinal fan that Pujols’ return is coming much sooner than expected, but let’s pull back on the legendary-career-defining-moment talk. Pujols is a “Machine” yes, and has been very durable and tough throughout the first ten years of his career. The more likely explanation in this case however is that the injury is not as severe as originally diagnosed. Remember it took three X-Rays to find the fracture in the first place, so let’s not act as if his wrist was hanging on by the tendon. And strong as my feelings are as a fan, and blogger, about his early return and the positive message it sends to the team…especially the younger players. They are even stronger about the Cardinals and their medical staff’s mismanagement of player injuries.

If his injury is aggravated, wow…look out, this will be the biggest egg-in-the-face moment for a proud franchise. We have seen it too many times in recent years. See: Scott Rolen seeking out the opinion and aid from another team’s medical staff for his aching shoulder; Chris Carpenter pitching in only 1 game in 2007 while the fans were fed lines that he was coming back multiple times that season; or look no further than this year and the handling of Matt Holliday’s quad injury. Cases like these are too plentiful for my liking.

Pujols coming back early is not a sign of super human recovery but rather another example of misdiagnosing or misrepresenting an injury. This is not Willis Reed coming back for the Knicks, Ronnie Lott cutting off the end of his finger to come back into the game or Al Macinnis coming back in game 7 against the Canucks. In those games, in those situations, the players were still hurt and played through it and with it. If Pujols IS STILL hurt, then we have a new story to cover and one that I venture will cost people their jobs.

Pujols got hurt and got better. And now he is now going back to work. Nothing more…nothing less. Just like the rest of us who miss time at work. When we get better….we go back. So if you want to applaud Albert upon his return, please feel free. But understand you are applauding for nothing more than someone doing his job and getting paid A LOT to do it.

As usual these are just my thoughts…if you’re smart you’ll most likely agree. If not keep on reading and you’ll get up to speed.

Follow me on Twitter @SportsbyWeeze or check out my thoughts on the Rams at RamsHerd.com