The early season tailspin of the Cardinals season was due much in part the inability to close games out late. The struggles extended when the search to find the right arm to fill in to the final frame role. Yet, when Edward Mujica took the ball to close out for the first time on April 18 in Philadelphia, everything changed, because Mujica’s performance didn’t. He converted that save for the club, and hasn’t wasted a chance since, and it’s no coincidence that since he established himself even later in games, and this weekend he saved both of the Cardinal wins, running his season total to a perfect 13 for 13.

“Chief” has taken the same lock down performance he brought to seventh inning a year ago over this season, and has firmly established himself as the club’s most reliable reliever. Since arriving in St. Louis last August, he has put up a 1.19 ERA in 45.1 Cardinal innings, an effort that has also seen him perform unflappably in two different roles in the Cardinal pen. “Adding Mujica was huge for us,” pitcher Mitchell Boggs stated regarding his impact upon arrival last year. “He stabilized our bullpen and gave us another proven arm that could go out there night in and night out. We took off as a bullpen when we got him.”

Historically, he was not a final inning arm before coming to St. Louis. His career ERA in the eighth inning is 4.96, while 3.16 in the ninth. Yet, with his success closing out games raising his profile, it makes him a sleeper candidate for a guy having a huge contract year.

Hitting the market with a ninth inning grade is much different than a seventh/eighth inning one. Mujica, who is bringing in just over $3 million for the 2013 season, which was due from his final arbitration year, is setting himself up for a bigger boost due to the presence of one of the most rewarded stats in baseball: saves. And with Jason Motte on the mend and with no easy date to say when he’ll be ready to go, there’s a chance the Cardinals will have to get very competitive to keep him in the stable.

As things stand now, he’s aligning himself to be among the best relievers in the National League this season, and if history shows anything, it’s that a big jump in saves can equal a very solid jump in pay grade. When Brandon League saved 37 games for the Mariners in 2011, he had never bettered six before in a season. He also had never bettered $2.2 million per season either, yet when he neared free agency this past winter, the Dodgers handed him $27.5 million over the next four seasons, much in part due to that breakout year only one season removed. Similar cases can be seen recently with Joel Hanrahan, Grant Balfour and Francisco Cordero. The closer market overall will be very open for “jump biding” this winter, meaning it’s ripe for the over pay, which damages the Cardinals chances at retaining Mujica at a manageable price, even in a setup capacity.

Yet, the need for a return to St. Louis will be highly influenced by the price, as well as the contingencies. Trevor Rosenthal is in the wings, and is being groomed to be the ninth inning arm of the future, regardless of Motte’s status. If the price for Mujica surpasses the $5 million mark annually (which it seems guaranteed to do), is there a chance the Cardinals bow out in favor of parking one of the promising arms within the system in the role for nearly 90% less? With Rosenthal as well as Joe Kelly, Carlos Martinez, and potentially Mitchell Boggs, in the wings, the Cardinals hold over until Motte returns at the back of the bullpen is solid. And while Mujica has been without a doubt one of the great coups of John Mozeliak’s tenure, his continued success could continue to draw his time to close at Busch.

For several years now the Kansas City Royals have had one of the better farm systems in Major League Baseball.  Most teams should be so lucky.  The Royals haven’t been able to translate this advantage into success on the field and there would seem to be one very good reason for this.

You can’t win the World Series with the AAA Storm Chasers.  It takes time to scout and develop major league talent.  While developing young talent can be exciting, it usually comes with long periods of growing pains while the fans wait for the team to assemble all of the necessary pieces to win consistently.  And if you’re a mid-market team like the Royals, then you hope that you have enough players developed each year to keep costs down.

But the patience may be paying off for Royals fans as they are now getting a glimpse at what a winning, home-grown baseball team looks like in Kansas City.  Mike Moustakas, who was a 1^st round draft pick in 2007, had 20 home runs and 73 RBIs last year in 560+ at bats.  Despite having a slow start in April, Moustakas has shown signs that his bat is coming alive hitting 3 home runs in the last week.  Moustakas isn’t available for arbitration until 2015 and doesn’t become a free agent until 2018.  Moustakas is still far from the player the Royals want him to be though.  He drew only 39 walks and struck out 124 times last year.  However, if Moustakas can learn some discipline at the plate he is sure to be the guy holding down the hot corner for years to come at Kauffman stadium.

There is cause for optimism for Moustakas as his first year stats are not all that dissimilar to the numbers that outfielder Alex Gordon put up in his debut year.  Gordon, another 1^st round pick from 2005 also struck out in excess of 130 times with only 41 walks.  You won’t hear anyone complaining about Alex Gordon though as the Royals have developed him into a player that turns in a 300 plus batting average every year.  Now hitting in the 3^rd spot in the lineup, he is currently batting over .320 this year and already has 6 home runs to go with that average.  Gordon is signed through 2015 with a club option for the 2016 season.

Gordon’s breakout is exactly what the Royal’s front office is hoping will happen for Eric Hosmer this year.  Hosmer, yet another first round pick from 2008 broke into the league in 2011 with 19 home runs and a .293 average.  As with other rookies, the walk rate could have been better but this was certainly a better rookie season than most expected.  Unfortunately it was followed up by a lack luster year in 2012 as his average dipped 60 points.  His average on balls in play (BABIP) for 2012 was a head hanging 255.  Hosmer is still incredibly young and should be able to correct his issues from last year.  Balls in play for 2013 are already up to 326.  Hosmer is available for arbitration next year so this season he is the player to watch as the Royals have been pretty open about how much they expect from him.  In fact, they probably expect him to be Billy Butler…at least by the numbers.

Billy Butler, if you’re keeping track, is also a 1^st round draft pick, consistently hits for average and power.  In his 7^th year playing for the Royals he has racked up 107 home runs and over 500 RBIs and will probably get his 1,000^th career hit before you finish reading this page.  This is the type of production the Royals want from Hosmer and it’s also why Butler’s 2015 option is starting to look like either the window for a home grown championship team or the year the Royals break out the check book and pay up.

While Butler is the type of player that all teams hope to develop, possibly the most important and likely the most overlooked piece to this young organization is Salvador Perez.  At 23 years old, Perez already holds the Royals franchise pick-off record for a single season.  The Royals believe that he will become one of the game’s best defensive catchers in years to come, something that no championship team can be without.  And the kid can hit as well.  In over 140 career games, Perez is hanging onto a 300 plus average.  The Royals feel so good about Perez that despite his apparent lack of experience, they have him signed through 2016 with options all the way through 2019.

In a weak division, this offensive core might be enough to keep the Royals out of the basement for the foreseeable future but to be yearly contenders we’re still missing something.

Check back tomorrow for a look at the pitching staff.

The St. Louis Cardinals completed an agreement to keep first baseman Allen Craig in tow last week, but very well may have done much more than just that. The deal is a study in the obscure: both completely team and player friendly contract that helps both parties roughly equally. But to understand this, a grasp on the first base market, the financial position of the Cardinals and the club’s future forecast must be fully considered.

Understanding the first base market is essential to knowing how much of an exception the deal truly is. Craig, who will turn 29 in July, signed a 5-year extension that will carry through his 33^rd birthday. First base is regularly one of the most lucrative in baseball, and upper tier contracts at the position are second to only top notch starting pitchers. To sample this, here is a breakdown of what each National League first baseman will take home this year (age – 2013 salary):

The Penthouse:

1.       Adrian Gonzalez: 31 ($21M)
2.       Ryan Howard: 33 ($20M)
3.       Joey Votto: 29 ($17M)

Middle Class:

4.       Adam LaRoche: 33 ($10M)
5.       Corey Hart: 31 ($10M)
6.       Todd Helton: 39 ($5M)
7.       Garrett Jones: 32 ($4.5M)

Pre arbitration group (Based on 2012 figures):

8.       Ike Davis: 26 ($3.6M-Super Two)*
10.   Yonder Alonso: 26 ($1M)*
11.   Freddie Freeman: 23 ($535,000)*
12.   Anthony Rizzo: 23 ($498,000)*
13.   Paul Goldschmidt: 25 ($482,000)*
14.   Brandon Belt: 25 ($481,000)
15.   Logan Morrison: 25 ($434,000)

9. Allen Craig: 28 ($1.75M)

The unique property of Craig’s deal is it still behaves like an arbitration deal through what would have been his those seasons (2014-16). He is the lowest paid non-arbitration eligible first baseman in the National League. However, it has securities that are manageable for the club, and secure for the player. Craig’s deal is for a guaranteed total of $31 million through the first five guaranteed years, with a sixth as a team option at $13 million for 2018. By that time Craig would be 34 years old, and entering his decline regardless of what he has accomplished in between. His peak should be at the average MLB point, which is generally 28-33, which is the heart of what the deal covers. The average per season value of this deal would be $6.2 million person, which falls in the heart of the middle-class of current market first base deals.

With the majority of the current holders of the biggest deals seeing them expire during the life of Craig’s deal, while other up and comers (Rizzo, Goldschmidt, Belt, Freeman) due for major raises over the next five years, Craig’s deal will continue to be a bargain for years to come, even as it escalates on annual per year value each season. In 2014, the payout is $2.75M, in ’15 $2.74M, then $5.5 and $9M in 2015 and 2016, respectively. The final two years are potentially worth $24 million, if the option for the final season is activated. If the roof of the current middle class of National League first base deals is considered Hart and LaRoche’s $10 million mark, then Craig will remain a reasonable signing at a high pay position for 66% of the life of his contract. Not too bad.

It is the perfect deal for the place that the Cardinals find themselves in annually in the market. A small market team, which competes at a slightly above middle-class payroll, and is in the midst of controlled turnover. The 2013 Cardinals will be the most expensive collection the team has ever fielded, coming in at just over $115 million. In the next two years, contracts for Adam Wainwright, Carlos Beltran, Rafael Furcal and Jake Westbrook will all expire, while arbitration numbers for David Freese, Jon Jay, Lance Lynn, Mitchell Boggs and Matt Carpenter will all increase. While a potential extension for Wainwright, along with a rising rate for Jaime Garcia will eat up more of the team’s available dollars, the team is in a very envious position, with very manageable talent-to-dollar control returns.

And for the club to continue to compete at its current level, that’s what the Cardinals must always have; a certain amount of “bang for the buck” deals. Craig’s contract sets precedence for that. He is one of the most productive hitters on the team and at a similar age as the rest of the team’s late-blooming core. With Craig’s mark setting somewhere of the competitive medium for deals on the maturing team, there is an increased chance of keeping the current core together and reasonably priced, while the promise the Cardinals farm is showing grows and inhabits the low price, controlled years they are moving out of right now.

The scene at third base for the Cardinals has been an ever changing one in recent years. It was one they addressed in multiple ways over the past five years, by drafting two collegiate third basemen in the past 4 first rounds, and trading for another. The one that was acquired via traded panned out for the best, and now David Freese has become the clear long-term preference at spot.

However, the club is aware that the page will turn on even him soon enough, and have recently once again focused heavily on upgrading the position within the organization. What does this mean for the team, both now and moving ahead?

Majors: Freese has stepped up to become one of the main bricks in the foundation of the organization. His postseason heroics in 2011 pushed him up a notch on baseball’s radar, and he responded in kind with his first All-Star appearance last season. Biggest difference in his performance was that he stayed healthy across a full season to post the type of numbers he was capable of all along. He played in a career-high 144 games a year ago, and posted career bests in over eight categories along the way. The 29-year-old is under control via arbitration for another two seasons, and if he remains healthy, will be the mainstay through his prime.

Matt Carpenter (who basically seems like the fallback option at every position on the team) rose through the system at the hot corner is a very credible back up option. At age 27 however, his best years and Freese’s will occur simultaneously, thus the desire to try his hand (and bat) in other more available roles. Daniel Descalso is also capable of spending time there if needed. He made 61 starts at the position in 2011 filling in while Freese missed time due to a fractured hand.

High Minors: Moving to Memphis, there’s no true next of kin on deck. That distinction belonged to Zack Cox, the club’s 2010 first round pick, until last season when he was exchanged for Edward Mujica at trade deadline. Moving down to the Double-A, the same story carries over; there was no real prospect that is moving through the system that has a potential future impact in St. Louis. The idea could be that Stephen Piscotty, who has moonlighted in right field but played third in his debut last year at Quad Cities at the High-A level.

Low Minors: The lower rungs of the minors show where the franchise is starting to plan for the future at the position, as it is one of the positions most heavily focused on in recent years. In addition to Piscotty, the club took two more third basemen in the last spring’s draft in Patrick Wisdom and high schooler Carson Kelly. Both were included in Baseball Prospectus’ Top 10 prospects for the organization this season.  Wisdom hit .282 in short season Batavia in his pro debut as a 20 year old, while Kelly hit nine homers in 56 games at Rookie level Johnson City.

Prognosis: While there is a bit of a gap from Major League level down to the next wave of talent at the position, the organization’s succession plan is clear. In the next three seasons, Freese will likely continue to be option A in St. Louis, with Carpenter in tow in some capacity as well potentially. The club used the 2012 Draft to provide plenty of long-term options over the next half decade to succeed Freese in St. Louis, or at the very least, work into a role with the Cardinals in a capacity such as Carpenter has over the last two years.

The St. Louis Cardinals reached an agreement with third baseman David Freese on Friday on a deal for the 2013 season. The deal will be for a reported $3.1 million dollars, and with it, the team avoided heading to arbitration to settle the deal. However, the deal represents the just beginning of potentially difficult decision making process over the next few years. And the relationship between the 30-year old and the club could be put the test as well.

Freese represents a paradox in several areas. He’s a late bloomer that’s coming into his own during his prime seasons. While his 2011 postseason heroics and honors set the tone, he really put his stamp on his future in what he delivered in the follow up season. In 2012, he played a career-high 144 games, while hitting for a .293 average, along with 25 home runs, 79 RBI, 25 doubles and 70 runs scored, all career highs as well. He took this into his first arbitration-eligible season, and the Cardinals responded with a $2.4 offer, while Freese’s agent countered with a $3.75 million offer. While they settled at about the middle point between the offers, he’s in a position to get some substantial jumps up the ladder in the next few years.

Freese is entering into his negotiation years at an interesting time, for both player and club. The third base market has seen the majority of its top flight players locked to contracts the last two years. Ryan Zimmerman, David Wright, Evan Longoria and Martin Prado have all received new contracts at the position in recent memory, essentially setting the bar for money at the position for the near future. These deals average at around $15 million per year over the life of a five year deal, and each represents a franchise cornerstone. However, it’s Prado’s deal from last month that is the most intriguing when accessing what Freese’s worth could be.

The 29 year old Prado signed a four-year, $40 million extension with the Arizona Diamondbacks shortly after being traded from Atlanta last month. This deal represents what he will play at through his majority prime years (it will expire when he’s 330. It is a cut below the massive deals that aforementioned group received, but still a very a solid value-to-length deal. The similarities between the Freese and Prado are there as well: both are one-time All-Stars, with similar career batting numbers (Prado a .295 career hitter, Freese .296). Prado is a more versatile option in the field, but Freese carries a .345 career postseason batting average, a place where much of his value comes into play.

Freese is a large part of the foundation of the Cardinals going ahead, although he’s a notch below the type of cornerstone performer Wright or Zimmerman is. He’ll play this season at age 30, and is past the type of deal that either a young player or a player with longer resume would get at his age. While a medium-length/annual salary deal such as Prado received makes sense, it’s also hindered by his arbitration status. More likely than not, the Prado-like extension wouldn’t be approached until terms are exchanged next year, and for good reason. The raise he will play at this season is a raise of $2.6 million. If he continues to play at the level he established last year, a comparable raise could continue along, rising at close to the $7 million per year level by the time he is eligible to hit the open market in two years.

The Cardinals could very easily continue to maintain Freese through his arbitration seasons as a cost controlled option that continues to be a “wait and see” property. But if the subtle, yet hard line he stood this winter is any indication of what’s to come, Freese understands his value, and he won’t be long for having non-committal terms. Especially as he’s playing through his highest earning potential seasons, and the team is showing a willingness to put money up early to avoid arbitration, such as they did with closer Jason Motte last month.

There are several lines of legit questioning that can go into such a deal, many of which will be answered this year. Can he have another healthy summer? Will he continue to grow as an offensive presence, has he did a year ago or plateau? Obviously, the franchise won’t be forced into having to make a deal for two more years, which will serve as a fair measuring ground of what to do. A deal over five years would be difficult, which age as a primary consideration. Also, there’s the fact that much of the core of the team is in a similar place, with year-to-year deals with Allen Craig, Jon Jay and Lance Lynn to tend to.

But locking Freese up to a deal has some urgency to it that cannot be denied either. He’s a productive and already showing his prime level of play, but the Cardinals are also evolving as a team regularly now, and will be on the verge of a mini-youth movement over the next two years, as their top shelf prospects begin to push into the picture at the Major League level. Finding the right deal to keep Freese situated in St. Louis is important, and provides face and play value stability to the team at difficult position to do so at. However, timing is everything. And there is nobody wearing the birds on bat has a more bi-polar relationship with time than Freese does now.

The St. Louis Cardinals called a press conference at 1:30 pm on Tuesday.  While rumors spread about contract extensions or arbitration resolutions, the reality set in quickly.

Chris Carpenter has reported to the team that he is experiencing the same discomfort that he experienced last season that led him to miss the majority of the season and have a rib removed to attempt a comeback.  When the possibility of another rehab assignment was brought up to Carpenter in the past, he claimed that a setback of this nature would possibly bring an end to his career.

When asked if he anticipated Chris Carpenter playing any role for the Cardinals in 2013, General Manager John Mozeliak simply stated “No, I do not”.

The team seems poised to handle the injury with an internal replacement, as pitchers Joe Kelly, Trevor Rosenthal, and Shelby Miller were mentioned by name during the press conference as players that were told to prepare to come to camp attempting to be a part of the rotation.

Speculation now runs rampant on whether or not Kyle Lohse could see a return to the Cardinals.  Lohse, a free agent at the end of last season, has seen very little interest in his services on the market thus far.  Many believe that is due to the compensation draft pick that would have to be surrendered in order to bring him onto a roster.  The Cardinals would obviously not have to be concerned with that in order to bring him back to the organization.

The decision on whether or not to bring in a free agent pitcher, Lohse or otherwise, may very well be related to the business behind the remainder of the Carpenter situation.  Insurance policies on contracts are commonplace these days and could earn the Cardinals somewhere in the neighborhood of 60-75% of Carpenter’s 2013 contract.  In addition, if Carpenter does officially retire, he would be walking away from his current contract and the team would no longer retain any liability to his current contract.

All things considered, it is a large blow to the St. Louis Cardinals going into a Spring Training that just became a lot more interesting.

Bill Ivie is the editor here at I-70 Baseball
Follow him on Twitter here.

One of the men most responsible for the St. Louis Cardinals’ 2011 World Series championship is currently locked in a battle with the team to be paid more like the star he is becoming, but this isn’t the type of battle that should raise serious concerns.

David Freese is one of the most talented young position players the Cardinals have, and he has plenty of potential to grow into another St. Louis baseball superstar. So far, the team has gotten an incredible bargain with Freese, who has made just $1.7 million total in his four-year career and is currently the 16th highest-paid player on the team.

It’s time for Freese to start earning more money. In his four years with the club, Freese has hit .296 and his power numbers have increased exponentially each year. He finished with career highs in hits, homeruns, doubles, runs scored and RBIs in 2012. And don’t forget he has a career .345 postseason batting average and was the MVP of the 2011 National League Championship Series and World Series.

He could fairly easily make a case that he deserves more than the $3.75 million he is asking for this offseason. The Cardinals have countered with a $2.4-million offer. The case will go to arbitration sometime between Monday and Feb. 20 if the two sides can’t strike a deal.

Now, while all of this sounds as though Freese and the Cardinals can’t see eye-to-eye on his worth, this is more of just a typical baseball business deal. Nobody will have their feelings hurt too no matter how the case finally plays out. The Cardinals have already finalized similar deals with relievers Jason Motte, Mitchell Boggs, Edward Mujica and Marc Rzepczynski.

Even if the case goes to arbitration and the Cardinals win, Freese will be in line for a big-money contract within the next three years. He won’t be a free agent until 2016. By that point the Cardinals will know whether Freese is going to be a franchise cornerstone at third base or if he will succumb to his substantial injury history that has kept him from playing 100 or more games in all but one season.

However, the Cardinals would still be smart to lock Freese up with a long-term deal as soon as possible because player salaries will only continue to rise throughout Major League Baseball.

The Cardinals made a smart decision early in Albert Pujols’ career to sign him to a 10-year, $110-million contract in 2001, and that deal was considered a bargain by the time it expired at the end of the 2011 season. Pujols’ next contract was worth more than twice that amount when he signed a 10-year, $240-million deal last year with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.

Freese and the Cardinals would both be in better positions if they could work out a long-term deal sometime soon, but right now the organization has other pressing matters. Namely, Adam Wainwright’s contract.
Wainwright is scheduled to be a free agent at the end of the season, and his asking price will likely be astronomical if the Cardinals can’t sign him to a contract before he hits the open market.

The Cardinals did sign catcher Yadier Molina to a five-year, $75-million contract last offseason, so they will have a strong core group of position players for the next few years.

And that’s what makes Freese’s contract situation a tad bit irrelevant. The difference of little more than $1 million this year shouldn’t have much of an effect on future negotiations.

Freese will get paid what he is due at some point. How soon the Cardinals will be willing to make that commitment is what will be the most interesting part of this situation.

Royals news is slow this time of year, but a few things happened last week.

The World Baseball Classic announced provisional rosters and nine Royals will be a part of the Classic. Players include left-handed pitchers Bruce Chen (China) and Tim Collins (USA), right-handed pitchers Kelvin Herrera (Dominican Republic), Luis Mendoza (Mexico), J.C. Sulbaran (The Netherlands), catcher Salvador Perez (Venezuela), infielders Irving Falu (Puerto Rico) and Miguel Tejada (Dominican Republic) and outfielder Paulo Orlando (Brazil). The Classic will be held March 2-19, during Major League Spring Training.

While the WBC is a way to promote baseball internationally, I’m sure it makes some Major League managers and teams nervous. There’s a chance of injury during the WBC and fringe players like Mendoza, Falu and Tejada have less time with the Royals to make the roster. Players from eliminated teams will come back to Spring Training, but it could affect a player’s performance this spring and their role on the team.

The Royals and Luke Hochevar avoid arbitration and Hochevar gets a raise: A lot of fans wanted the Royals to release Hochevar and move on. Instead, he receives a one-year, $4.56 million contract, a raise from the $3.51 million he received last year. Arbitration all but guarantees a player gets a raise, even for a dismal performance like Hochevar had last year.

It’s easy to get worked up over this, giving the maddening inconsistency over his career. But Hochevar isn’t The Man anymore. He’s a guy fighting for a fifth starter spot with Bruce Chen. There’s a chance he might not make the rotation and end up in the bullpen or even AAA Omaha. I think Hochevar knows this is his last chance with the Royals. If he improves his consistency and becomes the pitcher the Royals hoped for, good. If not, he’ll be gone soon enough. Let’s hope the rest of the rotation stays healthy so Hochevar doesn’t win a roster spot by default.

Last weekend, the Royals Fan Fest and Royals Caravan gave fans the opportunity to meet players, get autographs and talk about Royals baseball. From the amount of fans who attended the events there’s a lot of enthusiasm for the 2013 season.

Finally, the Royals announced their promotions and giveaways for 2013, featuring a Billy Butler bobblehead, a retro powder blue jersey and Ketchup, Mustard and Relish bobbleheads. Sadly, there isn’t a Eric Hosmer Amish Warrior bobblehead like I proposed last year. Oh well, there’s always 2014.

The Royals need another front of the rotation starter, even after acquiring Ervin Santana and Jeremy Guthrie. With a $70MM “soft” salary cap (which many argue is too low), the Royals say they’re willing to trade top outfield prospect Wil Myers for starting pitching. Names such as Tampa Bay’s James Shields and Boston’s Jon Lester have come up, but so far they’re nothing more than rumors. But is trading a top offensive prospect for starting pitching a good idea in the first place?

If it’s for Shields or Lester, no. Yes, they are good pitchers and better than anyone in the Royals rotation, including Santana and Guthrie. But they’re not worth Wil Myers trade value.

Both Shields and Lester will be free agents in 2014. If Myers stays with the Royals, he’ll likely be a free agent until 2019. Then there’s money. Shields will make $9MM in 2013 and has a $12MM team option. Lester will make $11.6MM in 2013 and has a $13MM team option. Myers will make much less.

Shields pitched 227.2 innings in 33 starts, had a 3.52 ERA with a 3.84 strikeout to walk ratio. Lester pitched 205.1 innings in 33 starts, had a 4.82 ERA with a 2.44 strikeout to walk ratio. Shields is 30 and Lester is 28, but between the two, Shields appears the one most likely to improve. Both pitchers are good and would be an asset to the Royals rotation, but not for Myers.

Now if the Tampa Rays are willing to deal David Price or Jeremy Hellickson for Myers, that might be a good trade. Price is a Super Two player, which makes him arbitration eligible in 2013 and a free agent in 2016. Hellickson is arbitration eligible in 2014 and a free agent in 2017.  Price made $4.35MM in 2012 and Hellickson made $489,500 in 2012, so they’re very affordable and would be under club control for at least a few years.

But I don’t see a trade like that happening. Price was a 20 game winner, pitching 211.0 innings over 31 starts with a 2.16 ERA and a 3.47 strikeout to walk ratio. And he was the American League Cy Young Award winner for 2012. Hellickson was no slouch, pitching 177.0 innings over 31 starts with a 3.10 ERA and a 2.10 strikeout to walk ratio. He was the American League Rookie of the Year in 2011.

Of the two, the Rays might trade Hellickson for Myers straight up, but to get Price the Royals would probably have to throw in another high level prospect like a Jake Odorizzi or Jason Adam. And the Rays aren’t rebuilding, so there’s no good reason for them to give up starting pitching for prospects.

If the Royals are so bent on trading for a starting pitcher, maybe they should consider Chicago Cubs starter Jeff Samardzija. Jeff Samardzija? To be honest, I didn’t know much about him either. But Samardzija was the ace of the Cubs, pitching 174.2 innings in 28 starts with a 3.81 ERA and a 3.21 strikeout to walk ratio. Sure, being the ace of the 61-101 Cubs isn’t that impressive. But Samardzija made $2.64MM in 2012, is arbitration eligible in 2013 and a free agent in 2016.

And the best thing is the Royals won’t have to trade Myers to get Samardzija (unless they’re very stupid, which is possible). The Royals could give the Cubs someone like Mike Montgomery or Cheslor Cuthbert for Samardzija and jettison or trade Luke Hochevar to pay Samardzija’s salary. The Royals still have money left to get a free agent pitcher like a Shaun Marcum or Anibal Sanchez. And Myers can take Jeff Francoeur‘s place in right field in 2013. Sounds like a good deal to me.

Matt Holliday re-signed in 2010.  Albert Pujols is gone.  Yadier Molina re-upped with the St Louis Cardinals last week.  So who’s the next future Cardinal free agent in line for a long-term deal?

Is it Lance Berkman?  Despite the legions of converts to Pumania based on his 2012 season, Berkman is still more closely identified with Houston than with the Cardinals.  Interestingly last season (by OPS+) was the best year of his career.  He signed a one-year deal for 2012 for a symmetrical $12 million, but will be 37 before the 2013 season starts.  St Louis might bring him back on a 2 or 3 year contract, depending on how this season goes, but he has passed the point in his career where a 5+ year deal makes sense.

Is it Adam Wainwright?  Much more likely.  Although on the DL at the end of 2011, which would have allowed the Cardinals to decline his option, that option was picked up, meaning he’ll be with the club through the end of next season.  There is much risk to keeping Wainwright for another 5 or more years.  He’s on the wrong side of 30 (will be 32 after the 2013 season) and has now had Tommy John surgery, meaning his career could end on his next pitch.  In his favor, and helping mitigate that risk, is the fact he has learned at the feet and via the example of Chris Carpenter the past 7 years.  Carpenter is no stranger to arm issues himself, but has learned how to prepare himself in-between starts to minimize the chances of re-injury.  Wainwright is one of the elite pitchers in the NL and it would make lots of sense to retain him.

Is it Jason Motte?  He is also on a one-year deal for 2012, and has two years of arbitration ahead of him before hitting the open market in 2015.  Motte has already been anointed the Cardinal closer by new manager Mike Matheny, a position he capably filled during last year’s magical stretch run and post-season.  St Louis might consider signing the 29-year old to a long-term deal, but given the short useful lifespan closers not named Mariano Rivera or Trevor Hoffman enjoy a lengthy contract could turn into money thrown out the window.  I don’t think St Louis will lock up Motte for more than 3 years at a shot.

Is it David Freese?  Like Berkman, David is on a one-year deal. Unlike Lance, Freese is only making $500K this year, is only 28, and appears to have arrived (based on his performance both during last season and the post-season).  The Cardinal front office is probably waiting to see if he can play 100 games for the first time in his career before entering serious negotiations.  His defense is decidedly average, but his bat is superior at a traditional power position.

I think we have a winner.

If you the fan is looking for the next player to obsess over regarding a long-term extension, direct your energy towards David Freese.

Mike Metzger is a freelance writer based in San Diego.  He also blogs about the Padres.  Follow him on Twitter.