Aside from Aramis Ramirez no other NL Central third basemen surpassed the 100 games played mark. Only David Freese sniffed the 100 game mark in 2011, falling just short at with 97. Though it’s tough basing everything off of a post season run Freese showed the kind of hitter he can be in the postseason. It is dangerous evaluating off of postseason hype, but Freese should have had this breakthrough in seasons prior. Assuming health, which for him could be a big gamble, he can put it all together and be a .280-25-100-90 work horse on the hot corner.

As it stands now Freese is more of less in a class by himself among the NL Central third basemen. Not quite at the Ramirez and Rolen level, but well above the likes of what takes the field for the Astros, Cubs, and Pirates. Here is who he be measured against moving into 2012.

Ian Stewart split the 2011 season between the Rockies and Triple-A Colorado Springs, totaling two stints in each spot. He batted .156 with six doubles in 48 games with the Rockies and hit .275 with 14 home runs and 42 RBIs in 45 games in the Minor Leagues. A change of scenery might help Stewart, who hit 25 home runs in 2009 and was considered a rising star but never gained a solid footing in the Majors.

Reds third baseman Scott Rolen was limited to 252 at-bats in 2011, hitting .242 with five homers, one stolen base, 36 RBIs and 34 runs scored.  Rolen continues to deal with injuries and shoulder problems which again cut short a season. The 36-year-old has only reached 350 at-bats once in the past four campaigns and is a significant injury risk for 2012. When healthy he is one of the game’s best at the hot corner and his defense alone will keep him on the field.

For the Astros Jimmy Paredes hit .286 with a pair of homers, five stolen bases, 18 RBIs and 16 runs scored in 168 at-bats during his rookie season. Paredes didn’t distinguish himself in his initial Major League action but he didn’t look out of place either. The 22-year-old didn’t hit for a lot of power in the Minors so his upside for 2012 isn’t very high from a power perspective but Paredes has shown he can hit for average. Which for the Astros happens to be the case for most of the roster.

Aramis Ramirez completed his sixth season with at least 30 doubles and 25 homers. He got off to a slow start, hitting two home runs in the first two months of the season. Ramirez has a career .261 average in April and playing in Miller Park early in the year could help him boost those numbers. Ramirez has a lifetime .270 average and .503 slugging percentage at Miller Park, hitting 15 homers and 25 doubles there.

Pedro Alvarez was a big disappointment in 2011, as he hit four homers, stole one base, drove in 10 runs and scored eight times while hitting .191 in 235 at-bats.  Alvarez entered 2011 as a budding prospect but got off to a slow start and was eventually sent to the Minors. He didn’t show much more after returning to the Bucs in September and is a major question mark heading into 2012.  The addition of Casey McGehee gives the Pirates another option at third base, though the club has insisted that Pedro Alvarez will get the first crack at holding onto the starting role.

Our towns David Freese missed time early in the season due to a broken hand but produced reasonable numbers when healthy. In only 97 games in 2011 Freese hit .297 with 10 homers, 55 RBIs, 41 runs scored and one stolen base.  He set a postseason record with 21 RBIs, which has everyone drooling about a possible breakout campaign in 2012. From time to time he still shows he has room to grown defensively but a full offseason and being healthy going into 2012 should help.

By the time 2012 is said and done here is how I see things shaking out amongst the NL Central three baggers.

1. Aramis Ramirez
2. Scott Rolen
3. David Freese
4. Ian Stewart
5. Jimmy Paredes
6. Pedro Alvarez

Looking ahead: There is still a lot to prove for Freese in 2012. The NL Central already has an established senior class of third basemen in Aramis Ramirez and Scott Rolen. Rolen’s defense, for now, keeps him ahead of Freese and Ramirez’s ability to do it year in and year out keeps him atop the class at this point. If Freese can stay healthy enough to play 145+ games and sure up his defense even a little look for him to overtake Rolen amonth the pecking order of NL third basemen.

Follow Derek on Twitter @SportsbyWeeze

A quick scan through the National League Central rosters reveals a lot of the same names fans have come to see year after year. However, the name on the front of the jersey changes more often than you may realize. The St. Louis Cardinals have been called the 2004 Houston Astros after the additions of Carlos Beltran, Lance Berkman, and potentially Roy Oswalt. The Reds have been called the 2008 Cardinals with all the former players former Cardinal GM Walt Jocketty brought over after being ousted at the end of the 2007 season. Even the other four teams in the division seem to have a lot of players that have been with other teams in the NL Central. Why does it matter? I suppose it may not that much, other than it is a slow Hot Stove week and this seems like a fun topic to dig into. So here is my version of “Where Are They Now?”, NL Central Edition.

I looked at each team’s 40-man roster and noted each player that is currently active and has played for more than one NL Central team. I then broke down the percentage of players in the division that have played for more than one NL Central team, and finally the number of players in the division that have played for more than one team in their career as a percentage of players who have played for more than one NL Central team.

Clear as mud?

9.2%

Twenty-two of the 240 players (1 out of every 7) on active NL Central rosters have seen major-league playing time on another team within the division. Here’s the list:

Astros (4):  Carlos Lee (Brewers), Jason Bourgeois (Brewers), Chris Snyder (Pirates), Enerio Del Rosario (Reds)

Brewers(7):  Nyjer Morgan (Pirates), Jose Veras (Pirates), Aramis Ramirez (Pirates, Cubs), Alex Gonzalez (Reds), Randy Wolf (Astros), Chris Narveson (Cardinals), Corey Patterson (Cubs, Reds, Cardinals)

Cardinals (2):  Lance Berkman (Astros), Carlos Beltran (Astros)

Cubs (2):  Ryan Dempster (Reds),  Travis Wood (Reds)

Pirates (2):  Clint Barmes (Astros), Casey McGehee (Cubs, Brewers)

Reds (5):  Sean Marshall (Cubs), Bronson Arroyo (Pirates), Miguel Cairo (Cardinals), Scott Rolen (Cardinals), Ryan Ludwick (Cardinals)

25%

Here’s where it gets interesting….

I looked at how many players on each teams’ current active roster have played for at least one other team in their career.

Astros – 17

Brewers – 15

Cardinals – 11

Cubs – 17

Pirates – 16

Reds – 13

From there, I took the numbers from above (players with games played for more than one NL Central team) divided by players that have moved teams at least once. Here are the percentages:

Astros:     4/17    23.53%

Brewers:     7/15    46.67%

Cardinals:     2/11    18.18%

Cubs:     2/17  11.76%

Pirates:     2/16  12.50%

Reds:     5/13  38.46%

Any player traded or signing with another team as a free-agent has a 5/29 (17.2%) chance of landing with another NL Central team. I found it very interesting that the actual percentage came in eight percentage points higher. Much of this can be accredited to Walt Jocketty bringing several former Cardinals to Cincinatti, but the Brewers actually have the highest percentage of recycled NL Central players on their roster. Once Jeff Luhnow and the Astros head to the AL, I anticipate the ratios going down as he may pluck several free agents from his former division and former club (Cardinals).

This topic was significant to me if for no other reason than the Cardinals play 77 games within the division in 2012. The teams will know each other well just from the sheer number of times they play each other. But it must also be taken into account that the players know each other well because 25% have played for other teams in the division. I have not researched the other divisions in baseball or the other major sports, but I would be hard-pressed to believe any other division would come in at higher than 25% “recycled player ratio”. If someone out there is interested enough to do the research and prove me wrong, it sure would make for an interesting off-season research project!

For many Cardinals fans, the thought of Albert Pujols wearing a Cub uniform is only okay as part of a bad Halloween gag. Could this nightmare actually come to pass?

Friday 18 Feb 2011 looms not as a happy day bringing the start of 2011 Spring Training activities, but as Armageddon. It is the deadline proposed by Albert Pujols for his reps and the Cardinal front office to conclude a new contract. If a deal is not done by that date, he has committed to not negotiating again until after the season. Free Agency for this generation’s greatest hitter looms ever larger on the horizon.

Many teams have been thrown about as potential suitors for Pujols should he reach the free agent market. The most prominent examples are the Yankees, Red Sox, and Angels. The Cubs are also mentioned, which beings varying levels of derision and apprehension to the Cardinal faithful.

• Fan 1: “Albert wouldn’t go to the CUBS, would he?”
• Fan 2: “No way he leaves St Louis. That’s just a negotiation tactic. He’s trying to scare the front office.”
• Fan 1: (not convinced) “I guess you’re right.”

Well, how about it – do the Cubs have the cash to make a run at Pujols?

Cot’s Baseball Contracts list the Cubs with a $126 million (M) payroll for 2011, and $65.6M already obligated for 2012. That 2012 money is owed to the following players.

• Alfonso Soriano $19M
• Carlos Zambrano $19M
• Aramis Ramirez $2M (buyout; if he comes back, it’s $16M)
• Ryan Dempster $14M
• Carlos Silva $2M (buyout; if he comes back, it’s $12M)
• Marlon Byrd $6.5M
• Sean Marshall $3.1M

I would expect the Cubs to buy out Silva; to make a run at Pujols, they’ll probably buy out Ramirez as well. Who would YOU rather pay $14M – 34 year old Ramirez or 32 year old Pujols?

There is still the majority of the roster to fill out. Starlin Castro (SS), Tyler Colvin (CF), Jeff Baker (2B), Blake DeWitt (3B), and either Koyie Hall or Geovany Soto (C) will hold down the rest of the everyday positions (for the sake of this discussion I’ve put DeWitt at third in place of Ramirez), and each of them is either not arbitration eligible (therefore making just above the ML minimum), or still in their arbitration years, so affordable for minimal cost.

Let’s assign some notional 2012 salaries to the arbitration players. Suppose Soto gets a $1M raise (from $3M to $4M), Baker gets a $1M raise (from $1.175 to $2.175), DeWitt gets a $600K bump (to $1.1M), and Hill $250K (from $850K to $1.1M). That takes the roter to $74M. With the modest increase for the non-arbitration eligible players, let’s further suppose the roster sits at $77M.

There will be three arbitration eligible pitchers on the 2011 Cub roster – Matt Garza, Randy Wells, and Carlos Marmol. Based on past performance they would all be due for a hefty raise during next winter’ s negotiations. So, let’s further suppose Garza makes $9M in 2012 (up from $5.9M), Wells $3.1M (up from $427K), and Marmol $7.5M (up from $5.5M in 2011, the high arbitration value submitted). Now the roster sits at $96.6M for 14 players.

Ten years, $300M has been bandied about informally as what Pujols is seeking. Truthfully we have no idea what his contract demands are, as both his negotiating team and the Cardinals agreed to a media blackout about the discussions and have stuck to it. But assuming he is really looking for $30M per, and the Cubs decide to pay him just that, it would push the Cub payroll to $126.6M with 10 more players needed to fill out the team. Note the Cubs spent $144M-plus on the 2010 team. If our final supposition is they will leave the roster at 2010 levels (like the federal government is currently doing with defense spending) at $126.6M they are still $18M short of that. And considering they could sign a couple of modest free-agents to fill out the bench or bullpen, and use their farm system to supply the rest, that’s an easily achievable for Chicago.

Not only have we shown the Cubs could sign Pujols, but do so and save money when compared to their 2010 payroll. Signing Carlos Pena to a one-year deal gave them the roster flexibility to try, and they clearly have the cash.

Could the Cubs make a run at Pujols? You bet they could.

In the midst of their hottest streak this season, St Louis charges into Chicago to battle the Cubs.

Current Snapshot:

St Louis: 54-42, First Place NL Central, 1.5 games ahead of Cincinnati. The Cardinals had their season best 8-game winning streak snapped in extra innings on Thursday by Philadelphia. St Louis took 2 of 3 from the Cubs in Chicago back in May.

Chicago: 43-53, Third place NL Central, 11 games back. They have split their last 10 games (5-5). Since last meeting the Cardinals, Aramis Ramirez found his stroke, Carlos Zambrano melted down (again) and was held accountable for once, and Lou Piniella announced his retirement at the end of the season.

Pitching Matchups:

23 July: Jeff Suppan (0-3, 5.45 xFIP) vs Randy Wells (4-7, 3.72 xFIP). These two have never faced each other. Suppan pitched very well in his last outing against Los Angeles and threw six full innings for the first time this season. He’s already pitched at Wrigley this season, a game Milwaukee eventually won. Suppan is 4-4 career in Chicago, with his last win coming in 2008. Jeff has a lot of history against the guys in Chicago’s line-up; of the players who have faced Suppan 20 or more times (Marlon Byrd, Kosuke Fukudome, Ryan Theriot, Alfonso Soriano, Ramirez, Derrek Lee), only Theriot hasn’t homered, and only Soriano and Ramirez are hitting under .300. If the wind is blowing out, look out. Lee has absolutely killed Suppan in his career (6 HR; .429/.529/.875 in 68 plate appearances).

Wells has only faced the Cardinals three times, all at Wrigley, and his last start is one he likely wants to forget. Wells features a fastball about half the time, and mixes a slider or changeup in the other half. His slider is his best pitch, and one of the better sliders in the league. Given the three appearances, Cardinal hitting statistics against him are the epitome of small sample size; no one has more than seven plate appearances. They do lead to some interesting data, though – Wells has never retired Matt Holliday (1 for 1) or Colby Rasmus (2 for 2 with 2 walks). Only Yadier Molina has an extra base hit off him, and Randy Winn has never reached base (0 for 3).

24 July: Blake Hawksworth (4-5, 4.49 xFIP) vs Tom Gorzelanny (5-5, 4.03 xFIP). No one foresaw this as a mid-July matchup back in April, but here we are. Hawksworth will make his seventh career start and none of the previous six were against Chicago. He’s thrown 3 2/3 innings total against the Small Bears in his career, most recently on 29 May in Adam Ottavino’s first career start. Blake throws his fastball about 60% off the time, mixing in a changeup, curveball, and cutter for the rest. According to Fangraphs his cutter is his best pitch, but he only throws it 5% of the time. One wonders if some cutters were mis-identified as fastballs by Pitch f/x. No Cub has faced him more than twice. Hawksworth benefited from St Louis’ power surge on Monday night as he didn’t pitch well but came away with the win. That said, he has pitched better his last four games (ERA under 4.00), but his BABIP has been high (.333), so perhaps he is pitching even better than that.

Gorzelanny will make his first career start as a Cub against the Cardinals. He did make six starts opposing the St Louis Nine while a Pirate, the last time in June 2008, which also was the last time he pitched to the Redbirds. Pittsburgh was 2-4 in those six games (Gorzelanny went 1-3). He has pitched pretty well in those appearances; 16 ER in 37 2/3 innings (3.82 ERA). Fastball-slider-changeup are his weapons of choice, with the fastball and changeup being his best pitches.

Only Aaron Miles and Albert Pujols have more than 15 plate appearances against Gorzelanny. Miles is slashing a robust .467/.529/.533, so expect to see him in the lineup on Saturday. AP has a .979 career OPS against Gorzelanny.

25 July: Chris Carpenter (11-3, 3.73 xFIP) vs Ryan Dempster (8-7, xFIP 3.86). ESPN’s Sunday Night game promises to be a good one. Dempster has pitched better this season than his record indicates, and Carpenter has been lights out (16 IP, 10 K, 1.13 ERA, 2-0) in both starts since the All-Star break. Carpenter has been one of the best pitchers in baseball since 2004, and his record in Chicago is no exception (7-2, 3.66 ERA career). Chris has already beaten the Cubs at Wrigley this season. Oddly only a trio of current Cubs has more than 20 plate appearances against him (Lee, Ramirez, and Soriano). Soriano leads the way (.333/.351/.528) with 2 HR. Lee and Ramirez have also homered off him in their careers.

Dempster faced the Cardinals on 30 May and got smacked around, surrendering 6 in 6 2/3 innings pitched of a game the Cubs eventually lost 9-1. He’s made three other starts versus St Louis at Wrigley and had not lost before this year. Dempster throws a fastball and slider, with the occasional split finger as well for flavor. His slider is also excellent, though it is not quite as good as Wells.

Expect AP to chomp at the bit for this game to start. Pujols has tortured Dempster during his career (4 HR; .310/.412/.643). Expect Randy Winn to have something else to do while Ryan’s on the mound (2-22, 3 walks career). Skip Schumaker (.400 average) and Holliday (1.000 OPS) have enjoyed success as well.

Prognosis. No matter where these teams sit in the standings, this series is taut and well played. The Cardinals are hot; the Cubs are not, but it will not matter come first pitch Friday. Based on the matchups, I would expect Chicago to win Friday, St Louis Sunday, and Saturday’s game to be a toss-up.

I was watching the news recently, a story about people out protesting the spending by the federal government, and I was struck with a thought: I wonder if the recent worries I’ve been reading on blog posts about the Cardinals and large player salaries could be related.

Perhaps this is a recent phenomenon, brought on by recession-related news in the media, but I don’t recall reading many concerns from fans in the high-living days of 12-figure free-agent salaries handed out to one player after another. Quite the contrary; the calls from fans for their favorite team to nab the cream of the free agent crop were pretty common. The only concern was from fans complaining of an increase in ticket prices as a result of these new signings.

There have been several studies over the past few years indicating there is limited correlation between winning percentage and player payroll, including one from the University of Iowa that tracked data from 1995-2007, adjusted for inflation, that showed a correlation of winning percentage and a team’s player salaries of just 18 percent.

Then there’s the type of players upon owners lavish these salaries. Bill James did a study in the Baseball Abstract more than 20 years ago which demonstrated in the aggregate, a typical player’s performance peak is at or near age 27. Yet most free agents, who are required to put in at least six years’ service, are older than this and are at risk for decline.

The anecdotal evidence for teams such as the Cubs, who signed a number of free agents and extended the contracts of several others in an attempt to end a century-long championship drought, demonstrate the risk both of high salaries and the players they sign. There’s very little the team can do to move Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, Carlos Zambrano, Alfonso Soriano or Kosuke Fukodome, aging players with mediocre numbers and large salaries. A number of other teams, like Houston with Carlos Lee, find themselves in similar predicaments. Spending on these proven veterans crowds out opportunities for emerging young stars, who find themselves blocked at the big-league level, and crowds out opportunity for stretch-drive trades and payroll boosts for a club fighting for a playoff spot.

Which brings me back to the introduction. After years of both quantitative study and anecdotal experience available, fans who otherwise might support a club signing a big-name free agent or providing a multi-million dollar extension over several years have begun to voice their concerns with such risks. Such as concerns federal and state government spending crowds out private sector investment in the marketplace, the concern for these fans is that high salaries paid to players over 30 is unsustainable for a team seeking long-term competitive and financial viability.

Which brings us to Albert Pujols.

Prince Albert turned 30 in January, and the Cardinals may have to consider an annual salary between $25-$30 million and perhaps an extension of up to seven years to keep him with the Birds on the Bat. Even Joe Strauss of the Post-Dispatch wonders if the club has a better than even chance of signing him to such a lucrative deal, especially after the team obligated so much of its player salary resources for the next seven years to Matt Holliday this past winter.

There is no question the Cardinals want to sign Albert Pujols, and need to sign him. He’s a fan favorite, he’s the face of the franchise, a genuine marketing phenomenon, one of the great men to play the game. His numbers ensure an easy path to enshrinement in Cooperstown five years after he retires.

But those fans who protest spending by the team have a point. Do the Cardinals make an emotional decision to obligate another large share of scarce financial resources to a second player and risk a situation as both distance themselves from that aggregate peak performance age of 27 that the Cubs now face? Or do they make perhaps the wiser fiscal decision to allow Pujols to walk knowing that the club then would be better positioned to capitalize on unknown opportunities in the future?

Like Joe Strauss, I am amazed that a share of Cardinals fans greater than zero actually would entertain either trading Pujols or allowing him to depart. And I wonder to what extent an awareness of financial issues in general thanks to these people out protesting government spending and our current recession has to do with it.