Less than three weeks into the 2012 regular season, the St. Louis Cardinals entered play Saturday with a 10-4 record and already a four-game lead over the second-place Milwaukee Brewers. Based on the Cardinals’ upcoming schedule, that lead could grow quite large by the end of the month.

The Cardinals have faced divisional opponents in every game this season except Opening Day in Miami against the Marlins, and they won’t face a team outside the NL Central until May 7.

A crazy schedule that matches a team against divisional opponents in 27 of its first 28 games could make for a fantastic start to a season or a horrible start. For the Cardinals, it’s been a fantastic start that could quickly develop into runaway for the division title.

Granted, the Cardinals likely won’t continue to win 10 of every 14 games this season. They would near the 2003 Seattle Mariners mark of 116 wins at that pace. However, the Cardinals could have a sizable lead by May 7 even if they win slightly more than half of their remaining games through May 6. That’s because every game they play from now until May 7 will have a direct effect on the size of the Cardinals’ lead in the division.

Every time they win a game, it automatically drops one team another full game off the pace. There won’t be any nights where every team in the division wins or loses, thereby keeping the standings the same for two consecutive days.

The Cardinals also have a three-game set with the Brewers next weekend. If the Cardinals go into that series with the same lead in the division they have currently (four games), they could have a six-game lead in the division by the end of April.

Surely the Brewers (6-8) and the Cincinnati Reds (6-9) won’t continue to play sub-.500 baseball for long, but their lousy starts combined with a hot start from the Cardinals will make it tough for either team to catch the Cardinals. Even if they do catch up, it will likely take most of the season because they will both have to substantially rely on other teams to beat the Cardinals in order to make up ground in the standings.

Plus, the Cardinals are running through the division right now with starting pitcher Chris Carpenter on the disabled list and starting pitcher Adam Wainwright pitching terribly with a 0-3 record. On the offensive side, the Cardinals have battled injuries to first baseman Lance Berkman, third baseman David Freese and centerfielder Jon Jay.

Any fears fans had coming into the season with a new manager and the departures of former manager Tony La Russa and former first baseman Albert Pujols should be long forgotten. This team has shown that it can dominate teams both on the mound and at the plate. And when its stars are hurt, it has shown resiliency that will be key to consistently staying atop the standings throughout the season.

Bench players Matt Carpenter, Shane Robinson and David Descalso already made huge contributions to the early success of the team. With an elite lineup, very good pitching and solid backups, the 2012 Cardinals could very well put together a better regular season than last year when it won 90 games.

Plenty of factors could derail the Cardinals winning ways throughout the six-month season, but the first three weeks suggest the Cardinals might have full control of their destiny in September rather than begging for a massive collapse from another team to make the playoffs.

Before I get to the schedule breakdown I’d like to digress.

A year ago Bill Ivie Jr sent me a direct message on Twitter asking if I would like to write about the Kansas City Royals for a website called I70 Baseball. I guess he thought I might know something about the Royals based on my tweets. I didn’t have any writing experience beyond tweets and Facebook statuses. I figured I’d write something, send it to Bill, and see what happens. After all, knowing how to cook makes you chef like knowing how to write makes you an author…..ok, at least a blogger.

I’ll be the first to admit that after a calendar year, 49 posts here at I70 Baseball, over 80 posts at my own blog, (I don’t update as much as I’d like.) that I still have a lot to learn about the English language and blogging. However, I think I’ve figured out the hard part: Just sticking with it. Most bloggers don’t get paid to do what they do. They do it because they enjoy it. I’m established in my career, have other obligations that are more important than the Royals, sports in general, or blogging. I have eclectic interests and will admit that my biggest weakness is staying focused on one hobby. During the first part of this month I had to be honest with myself on whether I enjoyed blogging enough to continue.

Since I’ve written this much you might have guessed that I’ve decided to continue. I know there are a lot of other people just like me who have lots of things going on and that sports is their primary form of entertainment. So much so, that there is this constant battle between their reality, and their love of the sports world; whether it’s rational or not. As you can tell this battle fascinates me. I doubt I’ll ever become a part of traditional sports media. That means I’ll never, or will rarely, have access to athletes, locker-rooms, front office personnel, or have sources. I’m not going to pretend to be something I’m not. I’m essentially that guy in the Joe Walsh song Ordinary Average Guy (With the exception of the bowling part). I think part of becoming a better blogger is developing a voice. My hope going forward is that I can further develop into the voice of your ordinary average Royals fan here, and as a sports fan at sportsdrenched.com.

Now that I’ve got my Delilah episode out of the way it’s time to get to write about Royals baseball. This past week has been tough. Injuries to key players, confusing trades, southpaws getting shelled, and general spring training weirdness have put a dark cloud over the optimism that was displayed by Royals fans coming into camp. Not only that, I’m just tired of spring training. The novelty of spring baseball has worn off and I’m ready for some real games. Since I’m ready for real games I figured I’d take look at some real games on the schedule. I’ll keep the look confined to April.

The Royals’ April schedule features 23 games: There is a 10 game home stand sandwiched between two road trips. There are 13 divisional games. As you might have heard the Royals start with a west coast road trip. I like west coast road trips. All the games are later in the day which increases the likelihood that I get to watch them. I’m not thrilled about the Royals and Angels being the last two teams to start their season. However this means I’ll actually be able to pay attention to the opener, and that doesn’t happen very often. It should be noted that the first two games of the season will be televised on ESPN on Friday, and FOX on Saturday. This only matters if you live outside the Royals television market. It’s nice that the networks find the Royals that interesting. Of course, one Albert Pujols would have nothing to do with that.

I know games in April are not thought of as important over a 162 game schedule, but playoff spots are won and lost by one game. If this isn’t apparent after the last day of the season in 2011 I don’t know what is. To me there are two key series in the month of April. The opening series on the road against the Angels; April 6th-8th; and at home against the Tigers; April 16th-18th. Both of these teams are pre-season favorites to win their division. They will be excellent measuring sticks for this young Royals team. If the Royals go 3-3 over these 6 games I’ll consider it a positive development.

Another important series is the home opening series against the Indians, April 13th-15th. I beat this horse into the ground last year and nothing has changed my mind about it. The Indians are at the same point developmentally as the Royals. Their playoff window and the Royals playoff window are the same. For me to ever be confident that the Royals can get through that playoff window they must beat the Indians. If the Royals can’t win their home opening series against the Indians I’ll be in a serious Royals fan funk.

How will they do? I see a 3-3 opening road trip, 7-3 home stand, before going 3-4 on the second road trip. That adds up to a 13-10 April record. This team is expected to be around .500. You might say my glasses are shaded slightly blue. If the Royals do better than that, be excited. If they’re .500 they would be who we thought they were. If they’re worse than that? Such is spring in Royals Nation.

The Royals were supposed to be the whipping children of the American League. The team, the fans, and every expert around the country stressed that this would be a team to watch in 2012 and 2013. The farm system was the most exciting thing about the entire franchise and it would be the youth movement in the next few years that would lead the Royals back to glory.

Then the season started and the rag-tag bunch of players showed they were fit to play now. They got production from players that the rest of the league laughed at when the Royals announced them as acquisitions. Pitchers threw far beyond their expectations. And the team won.

Jeff Francoeur has emerged as a leader of this team. Most thought that Frenchy was brought in as a stop gap veteran to help the young guys adjust. Francoeur stepped up in April and showed that he was brought in to help a team win. He leads the team with five home runs and twenty runs batted in and his .314 average has shown that he is ready to be the veteran leader that this team needs.

Alex Gordon had dominated. Gordon himself said that this would be the year he dominated. Fans everywhere rolled their eyes at a young player that was overstepping his bounds without anything to base the claim off of. Then the calendar flipped to opening day and Alex Gordon started playing baseball. When April came to a close, Gordon would lead the team with a .339 batting average and would start to realize his gap power potential as he leads the team with twelve doubles. He finds himself among the league leaders in runs scored (3rd, 20), hits (3rd, 27), doubles (2nd) and batting average (5th).

Before the season we looked at what the team needed to do in each month to ensure a solid season. Let’s take a look at what we said they needed to do and what they accomplished.

April Breakdown:

Total Games: 27 (14 – 13 record)

Home: 16 (11 – 5)

Road: 11 (3 – 8)

Vs teams with winning records in 2010: 15 (10 – 5)

Vs teams with losing records in 2010: 12 (4 – 8)

Vs teams in the AL Central: 16 (8 – 8)

Key Series:

March 31-April 3 vs Los Angeles –

What we said going in: The Angels are being picked by many experts to win the AL West this year and will provide an immediate test for the Royals this season. That being said, the subtext that everyone in Kansas City is talking about revolves around the “Double Header” being billed on April 2nd. That night, following the game with the Angels, the Royals top two farm teams will do battle at Kauffman Stadium, allowing the fans in Kansas City to get a glimpse of the future that lays ahead of the franchise.

The Result: After dropping the home opener, the Royals ripped off three straight wins and showed the league very early on that they planned on being competitive. The futures game on April 2nd was all it was billed to be, but was overshadowed by a major league club that was fighting to be seen as the main attraction.

April 14-21 vs Seattle and Cleveland –

What we said going in: This may be the key week to the early season for the Royals. Some people are wondering if the Royals are not as bad as many are predicting them. If the Royals are to put together a successful season in the win-loss column, it will have to be solidified with wins over teams that are honestly worse than they are. This week projects as a battle between three teams that many pick to be the worst in the American League and will give the Royals an opportunity to prove that they are more than just going through the motions in 2011.

The Result: If the Royals are one of the surprise teams in April, Cleveland is the top of that heap. We said the team needed to win against teams that were worse than them, but we had no idea just how good Cleveland would be to open the season. A split with the Indians in a four game set and taking three of four from the Mariners was just what we thought the team needed.

Key To a Hot Start:

What we said: The Royals do not need a hot start. The team needs to be patient and develop their young players. If they are to separate themselves from the lower half of the American League, they need to take advantage of games against Cleveland, Seattle, and Detroit. They will be tested early by the likes of Minnesota and Chicago and coming away with a .500 record against those teams will go a long way in to convincing fans that the team has improved.

The Result: This team finished the month above .500 but finished at 7-7 against the teams we said they needed to provide winning records against.

At the end of April:

What we said: If the Royals have 14+ wins… they have stepped up and shown that they are not to be considered with the worst teams. Fourteen wins is not out of reach in April, looking at the schedule. If they win each series with Cleveland, Seattle, and Detroit they will have won ten games. A single win against the Angels, White Sox, Twins, and Rangers will get them to fourteen wins and a record that is above .500.

What we’re saying now: Looks like a step in the right direction for the rebuilding Royals. A focus on patience with the farm system will go a long way into turning April 2011 into a successful 2012.

The Royals have surprised everyone and now will be judged on whether or not they can keep up. The team put a target on themselves by winning long before anyone expected them to. They finished the month on a down turn, but still are well within striking distance of making this a solid season.

Only time will tell.

When the season started many Royals fans circled June 1st. June 1st is date that almost without a doubt means Mike Moustakas will arrive in Kansas City to stay. Some think he will save the franchise. Some (me) think these kind of people are crazy. This team is awful! They get rid of all their greats like Zack Greinke. Wait, they haven’t lost any of their 4 series yet? Oh that’s right this team is better than expected, WAY better.

Photo by Erika Lynn

If you have followed me on twitter for any time or made the mistake of defending Greinke to me at the stadium, you know I have no love loss for him. I think the trade made has been fabulous and suddenly the need for Moose to save the franchise is so necessary. That trade has been a critical part of this team being above .500 and leading the wild card. As long as the Royals continue to not lose a series this team will be in the mix for the central and people in Kansas City are going to get excited. If the Royals can come out of their next 5 series without a lost series they will get into May with an above .500 record and only a month from the magical June 1st date. Notice I don’t say the Royals have won all their series because that wouldn’t be true. The Royals are 2-0 in three-game series but settled for splits in their two, two-game series this year.

This has been one of the best starts for the Royals in recent memory and some of us are believing this could be for real, maybe a little too much. Now June 1st has changed. June 1st is now more about a date for many to really start believing this team has a shot instead of just about top prospects joining the team. April has changed June 1st from a big day for a lost season to a day when this team could be making a legit run.

Now with that being said, even if we go 9 for 9 with no lost series’ by May 1st there will still be a month for the team to collapse before June 1st but I hate that kind of thinking. Yes, I get it, we have a habit of sucking but why think that way? Many people want to find the negative in the team regardless of how good things are. Yes I know we went 18-11 at a point and finished a season under 70 wins. Yes I know we have several 100 loss seasons since we last saw the playoffs. Yes I know we blew a 7 game lead and missed the playoffs. To all of you I say: SO WHAT! Why not enjoy the good times. I am so glad to ride this train right now and see what this team is doing. This Royals team is at least a year ahead of schedule. They play with heart and soul and are FUN to watch. We may win .500 we may not but It’ll be fun to watch. IF we finish April above .500, it’ll completely change the expectations of June 1st. It may still be circled, it may still mean the arrival of Mike Moustakas but it may also mean the day this team takes on a face of legitimacy. This team jumped to 14 in some power rankings this last week. 12 teams make the playoffs, to be considered 14 means this team is legitimately a fringe playoff team. We aren’t New York. We have different expectations. We had expectations for great prospects to filter in this year. With a solid April we can switch those expectations to maybe just maybe we’ll be good June 1st and instead of filtering into a bad team those prospects can be needed pieces to add to a playoff push when many thought we’d lose 100. This team has surprised, it can continue to surprise and April wins bring May hopes into June legitimacy. Come on April! Be good to us! No losses in 9 series to open the year. Do this Royals. Do it for all of us. All of the Royal Nation. Lets stop being a joke and bring in some legit baseball!

Troy can be found on Twitter as KCRoyalman. He also can be heard Sundays from 7-8p at royalmanreport.com and here on i70baseball.com with Bill Ivie, Mondays 10p-11p

Three and six.

Is it the end of the world? No. But it’s been far from pretty. Consider that the Cardinals hold a record of just 3-3 when holding the lead with 26 outs in the books. That’s right, a .500 record when leading with one out to go. Go ahead and let that sink in for a moment.

There are plenty of reasons for fans to panic in the early going of this 2011 campaign. Albert Pujols is batting an historically low .143 through 9 games. Closer Ryan Franklin has already blown more saves this season (3) than he did all of last season (2). Seemingly no one can get a big hit, save for David Freese in Sunday’s offensive “explosion” when the Cardinals finally broke the 3-run hurdle and plated 6 in the series finale in San Francisco. And oh by the way, the Cardinals have not dropped the team’s first 3 series of a season this century. In fact, whether fans realize it or not, it’s likely the team’s recent stretch of starting well out of the gate that has them panicking the most.

Over the past 3 seasons, the Cardinals have an April record of 49-26. The only seasons they’ve posted a sub .500 record in April since the turn of the century were 2002 (12-14) and 2007 (10-14). Other than that, they’ve been wildly successful in baseball’s opening month. Now does it really mean anything; who knows? The Cardinals have missed the playoffs 3 of the 9 seasons they posted a winning record in April, and made the playoffs 1 of the 2 seasons they had a sub .500 record in April. Just last year, the Redbirds held a 5 game lead on Cincinnati at the beginning of May, and you might recall that didn’t end well. Most of us know all too well by now: it’s not how you start, it’s how you finish.

The good news is… the Cardinals have a great chance to turn things around during the remaining part of April. The team’s upcoming series feature the likes of Arizona, Los Angeles (Dodgers), Washington, and Houston… with a key home series against Cincinnati mixed in. The Cardinals haven’t hit well, but the pitching has been right there. If the bats can kick it up a notch, even scratching out an extra run or two per game, it could make all the difference.

Speaking of hitting, I’m growing more and more concerned about the potential Mark McGwire effect as hitting coach. Last season, Albert Pujols, Skip Schumaker, and Brendan Ryan were among a few other Cardinal players that posted career low batting averages. And this season, the only hitter that has really come out of the gates strong has been Colby Rasmus, who makes no secret that his hitting coach is his father. Just some food for thought…perhaps another topic for another day as the season moves forward. Here’s hoping the bats get going and the Cardinals boost their record north of .500 by the end of the month.