In last night’s game, St Louis Cardinals manager Mike Matheny opted to intentionally walk Bryan LaHair with two out in the eighth in favor of matching up Alfonso Soriano against Mitchell Boggs.

Why did Matheny do that?  In 157 ABs (172 PA) Soriano has posted a .261/.320/.420 line against the Cardinals.  He’s terrorized the Kyles, off whom he’s hit all 5 of his HR (3 off Lohse, 2 off McClellan).  Other than those two, and Lance Lynn (he’s 3-7 against Lance), current St Louis pitchers have largely handled Soriano.  On the other hand, there’s LaHair.  He has a much smaller sample size, having a total of 19 AB (22 PA) against St Louis, but he’s made the most of them.  LaHair has hit 3 HR in those 19 AB, and has a .368/.455/.842 line.

Perhaps the critical pieces of data for this discussion are these – Soriano was oh for 9 with 7 K’s career against Boggs.  LaHair had never faced the right hander.  And, while LaHair was 3 for 4 with a HR in the game to that point, Soriano was 0-3.

So with all that data in mind, Matheny walked LaHair.  Boggs promptly fell behind Soriano 2-0 and 3-1, then surrendered a single to left which allowed the tie-breaking run to score.  5-4 Cubs.  Chicago would tack on an insurance run in the ninth to win 6-4.

Did Boggs lose Soriano simply because he fell behind?  Perhaps, but Boggs had fallen behind in the count to Soriano on three previous occasions, and had recovered to induce a pop-out to first and 2 strikeouts.  He had only surrendered a 3-ball count to Soriano once before and it had turned into one of the 2 strikeouts noted above.

So did Matheny do the right thing here? Well, he did successfully navigate a scoreless seventh inning while directing 2 intentional walks.  And, had Boggs not fallen way behind in the count perhaps he could have retired Soriano successfully.  I think in this game Matheny rolled the dice once too many times.  He was bound to get burned.

Mike Metzger is a freelance writer based in San Diego.  He blogs periodically about the Padres.  Follow him on Twitter @metzgermg.

Left Field may not be a power position in the National League Central, but with Matt Holiday, it is shaping up to be one of the key positions for the St. Louis Cardinals.

Matt Holliday is a great player.  After his first season in 2004, when he batted .290, he has failed to hit .300 only once, and that was last year at .296 which was plagued by injury. His average stats over a 162 game season are .315 with 29 home runs and 110 RBI. He has been incredible consistent. He hit .319 with Colorado, and has hit .314 with St. Louis over the last three seasons.  Oh yeah, and he’s a five time All-Star. Not bad.

The National League Central is shaping up for the Cardinals to take. The Brewers will be weakened, are about to part with Prince Fielder and will lose MVP Ryan Braun for 50 games.  Cincinnati looked like a rudderless ship last year. Houston and Pittsburgh are terrible, and Chicago is rebuilding.  A 2012 return to the postseason will surely ease St. Louis’ collective minds about the future of the team. Which brings the conversation back to Matt Holliday.

Holliday seems as good as any to fill in the third spot in the order where Pujols used to reside.  And if 100%, which he looks and claims to be, with Carlos Beltran in place forms, in my opinion, the best outfield in the National League Central and one of the top in all of MLB.

Cubs outfielder Alfonso Soriano smacked 26 long balls in 2011, to go along with a pair of steals, 88 RBIs, 50 runs scored and a .244 batting average.  Soriano drove collected his highest RBI total since 2006 and highest home run total since 2008. However, the 35-year-old hasn’t hit over .260 in any of the past three seasons and 17 of those homers came in two months (April & August). At his age, it’s more likely that Soriano’s power drops off than his average rises in future campaigns.

Reds outfielder Chris Heisey made the most of his 279 at-bats in 2011, swatting 18 homers and hitting .254 with six steals, 50 RBIs and 44 runs scored.  Heisey smacked three homers in one game against the Yankees on June 22 and pushed for more playing time all season.  His 30-homer potential is hard to ignore with power hitting on the decline these days. The 26-year-old needs to cut down on the K’s (78 in 279 at-bats) but his power and defensive skills are an enticing package for manager Dusty Baker.

Astros rookie outfielder J.D. Martinez went deep six times, drove in 35 runs, scored 29 times and hit .274 in his initial Major League action during 2011.  After the departure of Hunter Pence, somebody had to step up and knock some run for the Astros. That somebody was Martinez.   With 35 RBIs in 208 at-bats, Martinez drove in more than his share of runs in the second half. The 24-year-old flashed enough power to earn a full-time job in 2012.

Ryan Braun had an outstanding five-category season in 2011, hitting .332 with 33 homers, 33 steals, 111 RBIs and 109 runs scored. He nearly won the NL batting title, hit over .400 in the postseason and at age 27; it’s likely that Braun will be among the top hitters for several seasons. Testing positive for steroids puts a dark cloud over Braun and his MVP campaign but perhaps more damaging to his and the Brewers 2012 is the possibility of him missing 50 games.

The 26-year-old Alex Presley put together a 2011 season that would warrant the chance to start in left. In 87 games with Triple-A Indianapolis, Presley batted .333 with 31 extra-base hits, 41 RBIs, 58 runs scored and 22 stolen bases. That earned him a midseason call up, an opportunity Presley also seized. Plugged into the starting lineup immediately, Presley posted a .298 batting average and .339 on-base percentage. He swiped another nine bases and scored 27 runs in 52 games.

Matt Holliday hit 22 homers, with 75 RBIs, 83 runs scored, a pair of steals and a .296 batting average in an injury-plagued 2011 regular season. A strange season for Holliday who had two DL stints in 2011, as an April appendectomy a June quadriceps injury hurt his at-bat total. A wrist injury ended his postseason run one game early.  He was off to an MVP pace coming out of the gate until injuries like these and freak other occurrences like a moth flying into his year stalled his season. He’s expected to be fine for Spring Training and when healthy is one of the best outfielders in all of baseball.

My Rankings

1. Matt Holliday
2. Ryan Braun
3. Alfonso Soriano
4. Chris Heisey
5. Alex Presley
6. J.D. Martinez

This year looks to be different for Holliday. He will now be playing in the key spot in the lineup for the defending World Series champions. Holliday, who usually flies below the baseball radar, will be front-and-center in 2012 to see how he and the Cardinals respond to Pujols’ departure.

Still, if the Cardinals can get one of those patented .315/29/110 RBI seasons I don’t think anyone will be too upset.

For many Cardinals fans, the thought of Albert Pujols wearing a Cub uniform is only okay as part of a bad Halloween gag. Could this nightmare actually come to pass?

Friday 18 Feb 2011 looms not as a happy day bringing the start of 2011 Spring Training activities, but as Armageddon. It is the deadline proposed by Albert Pujols for his reps and the Cardinal front office to conclude a new contract. If a deal is not done by that date, he has committed to not negotiating again until after the season. Free Agency for this generation’s greatest hitter looms ever larger on the horizon.

Many teams have been thrown about as potential suitors for Pujols should he reach the free agent market. The most prominent examples are the Yankees, Red Sox, and Angels. The Cubs are also mentioned, which beings varying levels of derision and apprehension to the Cardinal faithful.

• Fan 1: “Albert wouldn’t go to the CUBS, would he?”
• Fan 2: “No way he leaves St Louis. That’s just a negotiation tactic. He’s trying to scare the front office.”
• Fan 1: (not convinced) “I guess you’re right.”

Well, how about it – do the Cubs have the cash to make a run at Pujols?

Cot’s Baseball Contracts list the Cubs with a $126 million (M) payroll for 2011, and $65.6M already obligated for 2012. That 2012 money is owed to the following players.

• Alfonso Soriano $19M
• Carlos Zambrano $19M
• Aramis Ramirez $2M (buyout; if he comes back, it’s $16M)
• Ryan Dempster $14M
• Carlos Silva $2M (buyout; if he comes back, it’s $12M)
• Marlon Byrd $6.5M
• Sean Marshall $3.1M

I would expect the Cubs to buy out Silva; to make a run at Pujols, they’ll probably buy out Ramirez as well. Who would YOU rather pay $14M – 34 year old Ramirez or 32 year old Pujols?

There is still the majority of the roster to fill out. Starlin Castro (SS), Tyler Colvin (CF), Jeff Baker (2B), Blake DeWitt (3B), and either Koyie Hall or Geovany Soto (C) will hold down the rest of the everyday positions (for the sake of this discussion I’ve put DeWitt at third in place of Ramirez), and each of them is either not arbitration eligible (therefore making just above the ML minimum), or still in their arbitration years, so affordable for minimal cost.

Let’s assign some notional 2012 salaries to the arbitration players. Suppose Soto gets a $1M raise (from $3M to $4M), Baker gets a $1M raise (from $1.175 to $2.175), DeWitt gets a $600K bump (to $1.1M), and Hill $250K (from $850K to $1.1M). That takes the roter to $74M. With the modest increase for the non-arbitration eligible players, let’s further suppose the roster sits at $77M.

There will be three arbitration eligible pitchers on the 2011 Cub roster – Matt Garza, Randy Wells, and Carlos Marmol. Based on past performance they would all be due for a hefty raise during next winter’ s negotiations. So, let’s further suppose Garza makes $9M in 2012 (up from $5.9M), Wells $3.1M (up from $427K), and Marmol $7.5M (up from $5.5M in 2011, the high arbitration value submitted). Now the roster sits at $96.6M for 14 players.

Ten years, $300M has been bandied about informally as what Pujols is seeking. Truthfully we have no idea what his contract demands are, as both his negotiating team and the Cardinals agreed to a media blackout about the discussions and have stuck to it. But assuming he is really looking for $30M per, and the Cubs decide to pay him just that, it would push the Cub payroll to $126.6M with 10 more players needed to fill out the team. Note the Cubs spent $144M-plus on the 2010 team. If our final supposition is they will leave the roster at 2010 levels (like the federal government is currently doing with defense spending) at $126.6M they are still $18M short of that. And considering they could sign a couple of modest free-agents to fill out the bench or bullpen, and use their farm system to supply the rest, that’s an easily achievable for Chicago.

Not only have we shown the Cubs could sign Pujols, but do so and save money when compared to their 2010 payroll. Signing Carlos Pena to a one-year deal gave them the roster flexibility to try, and they clearly have the cash.

Could the Cubs make a run at Pujols? You bet they could.

Motivated by a bulletin-board ready quote, St Louis steamrolled through Cincinnati and swept the Reds. They hope to carry that momentum home for their next series with the Cubs.

Current Snapshot

St Louis: 64-49, first place NL Central, 1 game ahead of Cincinnati. I’m not sure if Brandon Phillips’ comments woke the team up or not. St Louis is hot; not only are they back in first place, they are riding a three-game winning streak, have won 5 of their last 6, and 9 of their last 12 overall.

Chicago: 48-67, fifth place NL Central, 17 games behind. The Cubs took two of three from St Louis in July, then turned around and lost 11 of their next 13 games. They’ve played the Giants tough this week, but still lost three of four to the NL Wild Card leaders (all three losses in San Francisco’s last at bat).

Probable Pitching Matchups

Friday 13 August: Thomas Diamond (0-2, 4.67 xFIP) vs Jake Westbrook (no record, 1.53 xFIP). Diamond was the #10 overall pick in the 2004 amateur draft by the Texas Rangers. He has spent most of his time since then at AA in the Texas farm system. Diamond was claimed off waivers by the Cubs near the end of last season. He was pretty good this season at AAA Iowa, posting a 3.16 ERA and striking out 104 in 108.2 innings. He’s continued the strikeout trend, fanning 11 in 9 major league innings.

Diamond features a fastball, slider, curveball, and change. According to his Fangraphs page, he mostly uses his fastball (67%, 89 MPH) and changeup (20%, 80 MPH). The changeup is his best pitch, probably set up by his fastball.

Westbrook’s ridiculous xFIP is only for his time with the Cardinals. He has never faced the Cubs, which shocks me given all the years he pitched in Cleveland. He does have a history with some of the Cub bats; 3 current Cubs have 21 total plate appearances against him. Sixteen of those belong to Alfonso Soriano, and he’s not enjoyed the experience, posting a .133/.188/.133 line against the right hander.

Saturday 14 August: Carlos Zambrano (3-6, 4.53 xFIP) vs Kyle Lohse (1-4, 5.13 xFIP). If Reggie Jackson was ‘the straw that stirs the drink‘, then Carlos Zambrano is ‘the reason for the drink in the first place’. Zambrano started the year in the rotation, was demoted to the bullpen, reinstated as a starter, banned from the clubhouse after an anger-fueled mid-first inning tirade, returned briefly to the bullpen, and is now back in the rotation. No wonder Lou Piniella never shaves anymore. Tuesday was Zambrano’s first start since June 25. He survived five innings, allowed only two earned runs despite walking 7, and did not factor in the decision.

There was a time when Zambrano owned the Cardinals. For almost three full years (12 August 05 to 9 Aug 08) the Cubs beat St Louis every time Zambrano took the mound. Last year he seemed to return to that form; the Cubs won all three games he started against St Louis (Zambrano was credited with the win in only one of those games). This year he has not started a game versus the Cardinals. Both his 2010 appearances have been in relief, once in a blow out loss, and once in a blow out win.

Zambrano throws a fastball, cutter, and split-finger. He is also known to throw a curveball, but rarely. He can still bring the fastball (averages 91 MPH). Only his cutter is a plus pitch anymore. Lots of Cardinals have lots of PA’s against Zambrano, and as a team (in 347 PA) they are hitting .265/.341/.444 off him. Albert Pujols has about 20% of those plate appearances, posting a .272/.347/.574 line in 72 PA.

It is difficult to evaluate Kyle Lohse since his last appearance was 22 May 10. He did throw seven effective innings Tuesday night in AAA, but that gets thrown out the window at the major league level. Lohse better be right, because his career numbers against Chicago are not encouraging (176 PA; .366/.406/.610 allowed). Lohse is 1-3 career vs the Small Bears.

Sunday 15 August: Ryan Dempster (10-8, 4.02 xFIP) vs Chris Carpenter (13-3, 3.79 xFIP). This will be a rematch of the 25 July game in Chicago. Neither hurler factored in the decision, and both had almost the same line (7 IP, 9 H, 3R, 3 ER, 4 K) – the difference being Dempster walked 3 more hitters and gave up a HR (to Pujols). More info on Dempster and Carpenter can be found in this preview.

St Louis has won Carpenter’s last 5 starts in St Louis against the Cubs, dating back to 2005. Ryan Dempster has lost his last 4 starts in St Louis; in fact, his team has only won twice along the Mississippi River when he starts (in 11 tries), and it’s been nine years since the last win.

Prognosis

St Louis is hot, and the team left Cincinnati with a chip on its shoulder. The offense has woken up since the trade deadline, while the pitching remains strong. Chicago is really struggling right now, but playing their arch-rivals might help them snap out of the funk. Based solely on the pitching matchups, St Louis should win Friday and Sunday, and Saturday’s game could be a Wild West-style shootout.

Let’s go with Cardinals win 2 of 3 this weekend. Cincinnati hosts Florida, so this is an opportunity to widen the division lead.

In the midst of their hottest streak this season, St Louis charges into Chicago to battle the Cubs.

Current Snapshot:

St Louis: 54-42, First Place NL Central, 1.5 games ahead of Cincinnati. The Cardinals had their season best 8-game winning streak snapped in extra innings on Thursday by Philadelphia. St Louis took 2 of 3 from the Cubs in Chicago back in May.

Chicago: 43-53, Third place NL Central, 11 games back. They have split their last 10 games (5-5). Since last meeting the Cardinals, Aramis Ramirez found his stroke, Carlos Zambrano melted down (again) and was held accountable for once, and Lou Piniella announced his retirement at the end of the season.

Pitching Matchups:

23 July: Jeff Suppan (0-3, 5.45 xFIP) vs Randy Wells (4-7, 3.72 xFIP). These two have never faced each other. Suppan pitched very well in his last outing against Los Angeles and threw six full innings for the first time this season. He’s already pitched at Wrigley this season, a game Milwaukee eventually won. Suppan is 4-4 career in Chicago, with his last win coming in 2008. Jeff has a lot of history against the guys in Chicago’s line-up; of the players who have faced Suppan 20 or more times (Marlon Byrd, Kosuke Fukudome, Ryan Theriot, Alfonso Soriano, Ramirez, Derrek Lee), only Theriot hasn’t homered, and only Soriano and Ramirez are hitting under .300. If the wind is blowing out, look out. Lee has absolutely killed Suppan in his career (6 HR; .429/.529/.875 in 68 plate appearances).

Wells has only faced the Cardinals three times, all at Wrigley, and his last start is one he likely wants to forget. Wells features a fastball about half the time, and mixes a slider or changeup in the other half. His slider is his best pitch, and one of the better sliders in the league. Given the three appearances, Cardinal hitting statistics against him are the epitome of small sample size; no one has more than seven plate appearances. They do lead to some interesting data, though – Wells has never retired Matt Holliday (1 for 1) or Colby Rasmus (2 for 2 with 2 walks). Only Yadier Molina has an extra base hit off him, and Randy Winn has never reached base (0 for 3).

24 July: Blake Hawksworth (4-5, 4.49 xFIP) vs Tom Gorzelanny (5-5, 4.03 xFIP). No one foresaw this as a mid-July matchup back in April, but here we are. Hawksworth will make his seventh career start and none of the previous six were against Chicago. He’s thrown 3 2/3 innings total against the Small Bears in his career, most recently on 29 May in Adam Ottavino’s first career start. Blake throws his fastball about 60% off the time, mixing in a changeup, curveball, and cutter for the rest. According to Fangraphs his cutter is his best pitch, but he only throws it 5% of the time. One wonders if some cutters were mis-identified as fastballs by Pitch f/x. No Cub has faced him more than twice. Hawksworth benefited from St Louis’ power surge on Monday night as he didn’t pitch well but came away with the win. That said, he has pitched better his last four games (ERA under 4.00), but his BABIP has been high (.333), so perhaps he is pitching even better than that.

Gorzelanny will make his first career start as a Cub against the Cardinals. He did make six starts opposing the St Louis Nine while a Pirate, the last time in June 2008, which also was the last time he pitched to the Redbirds. Pittsburgh was 2-4 in those six games (Gorzelanny went 1-3). He has pitched pretty well in those appearances; 16 ER in 37 2/3 innings (3.82 ERA). Fastball-slider-changeup are his weapons of choice, with the fastball and changeup being his best pitches.

Only Aaron Miles and Albert Pujols have more than 15 plate appearances against Gorzelanny. Miles is slashing a robust .467/.529/.533, so expect to see him in the lineup on Saturday. AP has a .979 career OPS against Gorzelanny.

25 July: Chris Carpenter (11-3, 3.73 xFIP) vs Ryan Dempster (8-7, xFIP 3.86). ESPN’s Sunday Night game promises to be a good one. Dempster has pitched better this season than his record indicates, and Carpenter has been lights out (16 IP, 10 K, 1.13 ERA, 2-0) in both starts since the All-Star break. Carpenter has been one of the best pitchers in baseball since 2004, and his record in Chicago is no exception (7-2, 3.66 ERA career). Chris has already beaten the Cubs at Wrigley this season. Oddly only a trio of current Cubs has more than 20 plate appearances against him (Lee, Ramirez, and Soriano). Soriano leads the way (.333/.351/.528) with 2 HR. Lee and Ramirez have also homered off him in their careers.

Dempster faced the Cardinals on 30 May and got smacked around, surrendering 6 in 6 2/3 innings pitched of a game the Cubs eventually lost 9-1. He’s made three other starts versus St Louis at Wrigley and had not lost before this year. Dempster throws a fastball and slider, with the occasional split finger as well for flavor. His slider is also excellent, though it is not quite as good as Wells.

Expect AP to chomp at the bit for this game to start. Pujols has tortured Dempster during his career (4 HR; .310/.412/.643). Expect Randy Winn to have something else to do while Ryan’s on the mound (2-22, 3 walks career). Skip Schumaker (.400 average) and Holliday (1.000 OPS) have enjoyed success as well.

Prognosis. No matter where these teams sit in the standings, this series is taut and well played. The Cardinals are hot; the Cubs are not, but it will not matter come first pitch Friday. Based on the matchups, I would expect Chicago to win Friday, St Louis Sunday, and Saturday’s game to be a toss-up.

I was watching the news recently, a story about people out protesting the spending by the federal government, and I was struck with a thought: I wonder if the recent worries I’ve been reading on blog posts about the Cardinals and large player salaries could be related.

Perhaps this is a recent phenomenon, brought on by recession-related news in the media, but I don’t recall reading many concerns from fans in the high-living days of 12-figure free-agent salaries handed out to one player after another. Quite the contrary; the calls from fans for their favorite team to nab the cream of the free agent crop were pretty common. The only concern was from fans complaining of an increase in ticket prices as a result of these new signings.

There have been several studies over the past few years indicating there is limited correlation between winning percentage and player payroll, including one from the University of Iowa that tracked data from 1995-2007, adjusted for inflation, that showed a correlation of winning percentage and a team’s player salaries of just 18 percent.

Then there’s the type of players upon owners lavish these salaries. Bill James did a study in the Baseball Abstract more than 20 years ago which demonstrated in the aggregate, a typical player’s performance peak is at or near age 27. Yet most free agents, who are required to put in at least six years’ service, are older than this and are at risk for decline.

The anecdotal evidence for teams such as the Cubs, who signed a number of free agents and extended the contracts of several others in an attempt to end a century-long championship drought, demonstrate the risk both of high salaries and the players they sign. There’s very little the team can do to move Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, Carlos Zambrano, Alfonso Soriano or Kosuke Fukodome, aging players with mediocre numbers and large salaries. A number of other teams, like Houston with Carlos Lee, find themselves in similar predicaments. Spending on these proven veterans crowds out opportunities for emerging young stars, who find themselves blocked at the big-league level, and crowds out opportunity for stretch-drive trades and payroll boosts for a club fighting for a playoff spot.

Which brings me back to the introduction. After years of both quantitative study and anecdotal experience available, fans who otherwise might support a club signing a big-name free agent or providing a multi-million dollar extension over several years have begun to voice their concerns with such risks. Such as concerns federal and state government spending crowds out private sector investment in the marketplace, the concern for these fans is that high salaries paid to players over 30 is unsustainable for a team seeking long-term competitive and financial viability.

Which brings us to Albert Pujols.

Prince Albert turned 30 in January, and the Cardinals may have to consider an annual salary between $25-$30 million and perhaps an extension of up to seven years to keep him with the Birds on the Bat. Even Joe Strauss of the Post-Dispatch wonders if the club has a better than even chance of signing him to such a lucrative deal, especially after the team obligated so much of its player salary resources for the next seven years to Matt Holliday this past winter.

There is no question the Cardinals want to sign Albert Pujols, and need to sign him. He’s a fan favorite, he’s the face of the franchise, a genuine marketing phenomenon, one of the great men to play the game. His numbers ensure an easy path to enshrinement in Cooperstown five years after he retires.

But those fans who protest spending by the team have a point. Do the Cardinals make an emotional decision to obligate another large share of scarce financial resources to a second player and risk a situation as both distance themselves from that aggregate peak performance age of 27 that the Cubs now face? Or do they make perhaps the wiser fiscal decision to allow Pujols to walk knowing that the club then would be better positioned to capitalize on unknown opportunities in the future?

Like Joe Strauss, I am amazed that a share of Cardinals fans greater than zero actually would entertain either trading Pujols or allowing him to depart. And I wonder to what extent an awareness of financial issues in general thanks to these people out protesting government spending and our current recession has to do with it.