After a tough end to the weekend on Sunday night in Philadelphia, the Cardinals rebounded nicely a day later and haven’t let up yet. The club pulled off its first series sweep of the season against the Washington Nationals in DC, wrapping it up against their ace Stephen Strasburg on Wednesday afternoon. It was the club’s first return back to DC since the improbable end of their Division Series matchup in the city last October. All in all, the longest road trip of the season ended with an impressive 6-3 record, with one game lost to rain. And as the club returns back home a half game ahead in the NL Central, here are three things to take from tilt with the Nationals.

1.Fear the Koz: Clearly Nationals fans have not forgotten the last time Pete Kozma made an appearance in their city. Kozma was routinely booed through the series each time he stepped to the plate, as an after effect of the two run single he plated to complete the Cardinal comeback in the decisive game of the 2012’s Division Series. Kozma, who is rather stoic even on a regular day, was also unflappable at the plate for the series. Despite the constant outpour of boos, he had four hits in nine at-bats for the series, and played his usual hard nose style on the basepaths. On the year, he’s turned in a respectable .262/.306/.675 effort thus far, and has been one of the most consistent everyday performers on the club.

2. Missing in Action: Jon Jay, who has been knees deep in a major slump, was sat down the last two games of the series. With lefty Ross Detwiler on the mound on Tuesday, it seemed to be a matchup move, yet when he sat again versus Strasberg on Wednesday, it became clear that the intention perhaps is to let him get all the way relaxed and back in Busch Stadium (where he is a career .329 hitter, yet only .250 in 2013) before putting him back in the mix again. His prolonged slump has dropped his season total at the plate to .205, which is tough to stomach out the leadoff spot. While a drop down to seventh didn’t help him much to start the series, he did manage a crucial sliding grab in the 8^th inning of Monday’s victory.

3. Mujica makes a way: For now, the Chief is in charge. Edward Mujica, who was really turned to as the last reasonable resort in the bullpen for the closer position, turned in series that has (for the time being) fanned the flames on much maligned closer role. He saved each game in the series, without surrendering a hit in the process. He pitched to contact, striking out only one batter, but has maintained the impeccable control that’s made him the exception in the late inning mix all year (one walk in nine appearances). While he doesn’t have the track record or the stuff that Boggs and Rosenthal boast, there’s nobody else that’s even gotten close the effectiveness he’s shown thus far.

When the St. Louis Cardinals waged their annual war with injuries last season as Allen Craig and Lance Berkman went on the disabled list within weeks of each other in May, the Cardinals needed a replacement, and their first choice was minor leaguer Matt Adams.

Adams looked the part. He’s 6-foot-3-inches tall, weighs 260 pounds and hit 82 homeruns in his four years in the minor leagues while compiling a .318 batting average. But that wasn’t the player who showed up in the Cardinals lineup in 2012. Adams hit .244 with two homeruns and 13 RBIs in his 27-game stay with the big-league club.

So where was this power potential that made him the Cardinals first choice to fill-in while two players with power bats sat on the disabled list? Apparently it had left Adams’ right elbow.

Adams and the Cardinals didn’t know it at the time, but he had been hampered by a bone spur in his elbow and eventually had surgery to repair it last season after the Cardinals sent him back to the Triple-A Memphis Redbirds.

And it turns out that injury made a huge difference because the 2013 version of Adams is much more in line with the stories of his powerful approach to hitting and why the Cardinals considered him a top prospect..

Adams crushed the ball throughout spring training. He hit three homeruns and led the team with 17 RBIs in 28 games. He has carried that success into the regular season so far, and at times carried the team.

He got the Cardinals their first extra-base hit of the three-game series last weekend against the San Francisco Giants when he hit a two-run, ground-rule double into right-centerfield in the fourth inning Sunday against Giants ace Matt Cain. He also carried his hot bat into the Cardinals first home series of the season, a three-game set with the division-rival Cincinnati Reds.

The Cardinals trailed the Reds 1-0 in the sixth inning Tuesday against Reds starter Bronson Arroyo, who to that point in the game had not allowed a hitter to reach base. But Adams, who entered the game as a pinch hitter, waited on one of Arroyo’s trademark slow breaking balls and crushed it into the rightfield seats for a two-run homer.

Then he did the same thing in the sixth inning Wednesday against Reds pitcher Homer Bailey as the Cardinals cruised to a 10-0 win behind a stellar complete-game performance by starter Jake Westbrook.

Adams is in such a groove right now he has the look of a hitter who could hit almost any pitch out of the ballpark. He is getting healthy cuts on pitches he misses, and most of his foul balls have been smashed into the seats down the rightfield line.

That’s the type of hitter the Cardinals management saw in the minor leagues, and it’s the type of hitter who will likely play a very important role for the team throughout the season.

Craig is still the starting first baseman, and he is in no danger of losing that job. But Craig will also have to play rightfield on a fairly regular basis to give 35-year-old Carlos Beltran enough days off to make it through the season, and that could give Adams enough opportunities to be a large part of the Cardinals offense this season.

Even if he is primarily used in a bench role, it’s always nice to have a player who’s hitting over .600 ready to take an important at-bat late in a ballgame.

Sure, Adams won’t continue to hit .600 or better throughout the season, but the Cardinals now have a power hitter who can change the tone of a game immediately.

The Cardinals thought Adams could provide that aspect of the game when he came up in 2012. Now they know he can in 2013.

The biggest move of the winter took center stage on Opening Day for the Kansas City Royals.  No longer a team that is rebuilding, David Glass and company took steps this off-season to become contenders.

The top prospect in the organization was packaged away in order to get the one thing the Royals felt they needed more than anything else: a pitcher that could truly be an ace.  In addition, they got a pitcher who possesses the nickname to define his role with the club.  Welcome to 2013 Royals baseball, let us introduce “Big Game” James Shields.

Opening Day showed the fans exactly what they wanted to see.  Shields took the mound and pitched like the ace that he is.  He got in small bits of trouble, refused to be shook up about it, and fought out of the jams.  He struck out six batters without issuing a single free pass.  He battled, giving up eight hits and still managed to pitch six innings.  He showed Royals fans that he was exactly as advertised.

Aaron Crow and Kelvin Herrera furthered what fans already knew.  The rebuilt rotation would be supported by the strength of the team the last few years: the bullpen.  They were not perfect, but the were close enough.  Three strikeouts, one walk, and two innings later, the Royals pitching staff had put the team in a great position to win a baseball game.  With the exception of one poor pitch from their starter, the Royals were great.  All they needed was two runs to win the game.

That, on the other hand, proved to be difficult.  White Sox starter Chris Sale was Shields-like in his own right.  He scattered hits, kept guys off the bases, and stayed out of trouble.  He went deep into the game and then allowed his bullpen to close the door.  The Royals had their chances, but simply could not deliver.  Ultimately, it came down to the top of the ninth inning with the potential game-tying run sitting in scoring position at second base.  Eric Hosmer had drawn a walk and stole second, trying to ignite something to happen.

Jeff Francoeur grounded out weakly to the shortstop, unable to beat out a possible infield single and drawing the curtain on the first game of the season.

Do not fret, Royals fans, this offense will not sputter like this frequently.  If Shields continues to give up one run per outing, he will find himself winning a lot of games in Royals blue.

But for one day, at the beginning of the 2013 campaign, it sure felt a lot like deja vu.

Bill Ivie is the editor here at i70baseball.
You can follow him on Twitter by clicking here.

COMMENTARY | The St. Louis Cardinals organization has been named by many different sources as having one of the best farm systems in baseball and the pitching talent is a large reason for that. Perspective becomes increasingly important however when determining if a pitcher is considered a major-league pitcher or a top-of-the-rotation major league pitcher.

My previous article took a look at why the Adam Wainwright extension was a much more sound decision than the possibility of signing Albert Pujols to a long-term deal would have been. During that discussion, I point out that Wainwright was much harder to replace since there were very few arms in the minor league system that project to take over his position as “ace” with this club.

Many fans have to wonder what I might have been talking about. The young pitching has looked more than impressive at the end of 2012 and during the spring of 2013. Why then, fans wonder, would I say that there is only one pitcher that projects to be the potential heir to the Wainwright throne?

Click here to read an in depth look at the young hurlers in the Cardinals organization.

James Shields was the “big name” in the Shields/Wade Davis trade, but the success or failure of the trade hinges on Davis. Shields is the Kansas City Royals’ ace, but he’s a free agent after the 2014 season. Whether he pitches well or not, it’s likely he’s gone after two years. However, Davis is under team control until 2016. The Royals believe Shields will improve the team now. As for Davis, the Royals believe he will develop into a two or three starter and be a part of the starting rotation the next few seasons.

This spring, the Royals plan to give Davis every chance to make the starting rotation as their 3-4-5 starter. From 2009-2011, Davis started 64 games for the Tampa Bay Rays. But last year, Davis stayed in the bullpen, appearing in 54 games. During Spring Training, the Rays gave Davis a shot as their fifth starter, but he lost out to Jeff Niemann. And when Niemann went down with a broken ankle, the Rays promoted Alex Cobb to the starting rotation, leaving Davis in the bullpen.

So is Davis a better starter, or a better reliever? Let’s see what the stats say:

Davis prefers a starting role, but his stats say he’s a better reliever. He had a much lower ERA, and over nine innings gave up fewer hits and struck out more batters. However, he did walk more batters over nine innings, which isn’t good if you’re a reliever. And with the Rays talented starting rotation last year, Davis stayed in the bullpen.

But how does Davis as a starter compare to the 2012 Royals starting rotation? Here’s the stats of the top five Royals starters:

If you take Davis’ worst year, 2011, he had a better ERA than the Royals rotation, save Jeremy Guthrie and Luis Mendoza. The Royals rotation had more SO/9 than the 2011 Davis and except for Mendoza and Will Smith, the Royals rotation had a better BB/9 ratio than the 2011 Davis. If Davis was in the Royals starting rotation last year, he would likely be the number three starter behind Guthrie and Mendoza.

So what does this mean? Well, Davis is a good middle of the rotation starter, but is a better reliever. If Bruce Chen and Mendoza regress, Luke Hochevar pitches like Luke Hochevar and Davis pitches like he did in 2010, he’ll be in the starting rotation. But if Chen, Mendoza or Hochevar have a great Spring Training, Davis might end up in the bullpen.

But that’s not likely, despite what happens this spring. The Royals will give Davis every opportunity to make the starting rotation, just to show the Shields/Davis trade wasn’t a bust like some Royals fans and pundits think it is. If Shields and Davis are starters, the trade doesn’t look bad. The team got two quality starters to improve their rotation. But if Shields is a starter and Davis is a reliever, then the trade looks like the Royals got an ace for only two years and another bullpen arm in an already strong bullpen. Not bad, but not that good either.

The Kansas City Royals  traded away two high level prospects last night, bringing home a legitimate ace and another strong pitcher.  The trade provided the Royals with the one thing they had been looking for over the last two seasons, an improved pitching staff.

Naturally, the pulse of the Royals fan base raced.  Seemingly, it was not from excitement, it was from disappointment.  The fans seem to feel that the team came out a “loser” in the deal.

Everyone Calm Down.

The Royals had a very big need.  They needed an ace for this team and they got it.  Not only did they get a strong number one, they picked up a legit number three in the process.  The rotation has been overhauled this offseason and, going into 2013, this team looks poised for a playoff run.  Indeed, it may in fact be “Our Time” for the Royals fan base.

The cost of the acquisition is what seems to be bothering most people.  Trading away two strong prospects in one trade is steep no matter how you look at it.  That being said, these players were not ready to contribute in 2013 and may not track as great as they once did.

Jake Odorizzi is a firm pitching prospect that shows promise and will be a contributor to a major league pitching staff within the next few years.  Most scouts agree, however, that he will contribute as a number three or four guy, most likely solidifying the middle to back-end of a rotation.  His breaking stuff has not developed as well as many thought it would and his fastball, which clocks in the mid-90′s, is elevated more often than most would like.

Wil Myers was a hitting machine at Triple-A Omaha last year.  Most anyone you talk to will tell you that this young man will be a strong outfielder in the Major Leagues.  Projections have him hitting 25 home runs and driving in 85+ runs while playing consistent defense.  Those same projections figure his arrival in the Major Leagues in late 2013 and those numbers to become reality in 2015.

Mike Montgomery was included in the deal and may be the player that breaks out the quickest in Tampa.  He is a classic “change of scenery” guy and fans will need to remind themselves that whatever he does, in whatever uniform he does it in, he most likely would not have accomplished that wearing a Royals uniform in the first place.

So, the Royals traded away a potential big hitter, an average pitcher, and a guy that just couldn’t get traction within this organization.

What did they get back?

Wade Davis is a slightly better version of Odorizzi.  The biggest difference between the two is that Davis is ready to produce in the middle of the rotation now instead of two years from now.  He has been successful as a starter and a reliever and figures to make an impact on this rotation immediately.

James Shields is an ace pitcher that finished in the top three in Cy Young voting just a year ago.  He is also highly regarded as a mentor type player that will help the clubhouse chemistry around the young talent coming through the organization.  He is a total package player that will impact this team in 2013 and 2014 before reaching free agency.

The Royals still have some holes.  They have a need in the outfield and at second base.  But the biggest issue for this team was the pitching rotation and that is no longer an issue.

When it comes down to it, if you want to improve your team, you have to give something up in the process.  This team gained known commodities in exchange for potential.

I’ll take a known winner over a potential win any day of the week.  Not only that, I’ll take winning now over maybe winning later.

Maybe if everyone calms down, they will agree.

When St. Louis Cardinals ace Chris Carpenter surprisingly returned to the mound Friday to make his first meaningful pitches since Game 7 of last year’s World Series, the Cardinals chances to win playoff games jumped substantially – if they get there.

With #29 healthy, the Cardinals could throw a rotation of Carpenter, Adam Wainwright and Kyle Lohse in the playoffs. On paper, that is a better rotation than the Cardinals had even last year when they won the World Series.

Carpenter is coming off of surgery to fix thoracic outlet syndrome that people expected to prevent him from pitching at all this season. But Carpenter threw five innings and gave up two runs on five hits Friday against the Chicago Cubs before the Cardinals blew the lead and lost 5-4 in 11 innings. But if that’s how Carpenter throws the first time out, he could be back to a strong seven innings by the time the playoffs begin.

Since Carpenter is returning from injury, the Cardinals might use him third in the rotation, but that could be a bonus. The team could throw Wainwright or Lohse in any combination of the Wild Card game Oct. 5 against the Atlanta Braves and then the start of the Division Series. Those two pitchers have a combined record of 28-16 with a 3.37 ERA, and Lohse is in Cy Young award contention with his 15-3 record and 2.71 ERA.

All of a sudden the Cardinals could match-up well against teams they might face in the Division Series. The problem is games such as Friday in Chicago when the team can’t score enough runs and can’t protect leads when it has them.

The Cardinals are 20-26 in one-run games this season, and much of that record has come from the bullpen’s inability to hold a lead, as it failed to do again Friday.

That has perhaps been the most frustrating part of the 2012 St. Louis Cardinals. The starting pitching has been superb for the most part and has kept the team in most every game this season. There have been very few games when the Cardinals got crushed because the starting pitcher was terrible. However, the team has not been able to lock down games at the end, and while the bullpen deserves plenty of blame, the rest of the team isn’t helping.

For example, the Cardinals left the bases loaded in the second inning after scoring one run in Saturday’s 5-4 10-inning win over the Cubs. They also left men on first and third in the sixth and eighth innings without scoring a run. In total, they left 13 runners on base.

That lack of the big hit to take control of a game has been a problem all season. Even though the Cardinals ended April with a 14-8 record, they could have had a much better month.

“We could have had an epic month, and it turned out to be a decent month,” Lance Berkman told the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. “With the potential that this team has, this is a nice month but it’s certainly not our best.”

Unfortunately, that potential never showed up. The Cardinals are still stumbling each time they start to get on a roll. This is the point in the season when opportunities can no longer be wasted because one mistake could allow the Milwaukee Brewers to jump in and steal the second wild-card spot.

But if the Cardinals do make the playoffs, optimism and dreams of another World Series will return when people look at a starting rotation with Carpenter, Wainwright and Lohse. Hopefully the rest of the team can keep up.

It will undoubtedly be the number one mission of Dayton Moore to improve the pitching for his Kansas City Royals in the off-season. While history shows that inking a true #1 starter is probably out of Moore’s reach, there has been some hope amongst fans that a steady #2 could be coming along with help from the minors. Today we’ll take a look at the top pitching prospects, and how they’re performing in the minors.

Jake Odorizzi (12-4, 3.22 ERA, 118 K, 41 BB) Easily the best hope for Royals fans hoping to find a young pitcher that can help this club in 2013. Odorizzi has put up acceptable numbers in AAA, especially for a 22 year-old, but he’s averaging less than six innings per start in Omaha and his WHIP has increased dramatically since his promotion while his strikeout numbers have plummeted.

Mike Montgomery (5-9, 5.64 ERA, 91 K, 57 BB) Montgomery has taken the opposite route as Odorizzi this year, putting up a 5.69 ERA in Omaha before getting demoted this summer. Once thought to be a possible ace in the Royals’ future, the 23 year-old is now looking like he may be a long shot to ever turn into even a decent starter. The results haven’t been much more promising since his demotion as he still sports an ERA over 5 and his k/9 inning rate has actually dropped to 6.0.

J.C. Sulbaran (7-7, 3.98 ERA, 113 K, 57BB) This 22 year-old righthander was a part of the Jonathan Broxton trade. He has electric stuff, striking out more than a batter an inning at every level so far, but far too many walks still. In his first start in Northwest Arkansas he walked three and gave up three hits in just four innings, but only allowed one run to score.

John Lamb- It’s still questionable whether he will actually get into game action in 2012. Lamb is fully recovered from Tommy John surgery, but battled tendinitis in his foot just before he was ready to return in July. He’s still just 22 years old but he has a long ways to go before he’ll be considered ready for the majors.

Chris Dwyer (7-11, 5.83 ERA, 94 K, 58 BB) Like many other pitchers in the Royals system Dwyer has lost both the ability to throw strikes and strike people out. His five starts in Omaha have been Jonathan Sanchez-like and at 24 years old it’ll be hard to consider him a prospect much longer.

Yordano Ventura (3-7, 3.78 ERA, 115 K, 38 BB) After his appearance in the Futures Game Ventura was promoted to AA and has seen mixed results. He just turned 21 years old, so a couple of bumps at this level are to be expected, but if he struggles for an extended period many think the Royals may try to turn him into a reliever. His stuff is outstanding but he’s much more likely to help in late 2014 or Opening Day 2015.

Noel Arguelles (3-12, 7.17 ERA, 41 K, 55 BB) A lot of time stats do not tell the full story, I’m not sure these need any explanation.

Jason Adam (3-11, 3.94 ERA, 99 K, 30 BB) A local kid that has been very solid in high-A ball. He just turned 21, and should get his shot in AA next season, but he probably doesn’t profile as anything more than a back-end of the rotation starter at this point.

Kyle Zimmer (1-2, 4.05 ERA, 26 K, 5 BB) The Royals 2012 first round pick started in rookie ball and was absolutely dominant in his three starts there. Since his promotion to Kane County it’s been a little different story, but it’s encouraging for him to be this far along nonetheless. A strong finish could put him in line for a trip to Wilmington in 2013.

With the exception of Odorizzi it is hard to find anyone that might help this club in 2012. What’s perhaps more discouraging is that it’s easy to wonder if Montgomery, Lamb, Dwyer, or Arguelles will ever reach Kauffman Stadium. As the big league team has put up catastrophe after catastrophe, we as fans have held on to the talent in the minors for hope. Now, six years into the process, these are our top nine starting pitching prospects; a hodgepodge collection of Tommy John surgeries, lost command and unfulfilled promise.

I have written a lot of positive things about a baseball team that sits 9 games under .500 less than 20% of the way through the season. Sure, I see positives…but until those positives start to show up a little more often in the win column, I thought it might be a good idea to change directions. During the Kansas City Royals 12 game losing streak many fans seemed to lose a little patience with “The Process”. I heard people mocking the same “best farm system in baseball” tag that we as fans so often quoted last season. Even within the graduation of a number of stars, the system is still stocked, so I thought I would take a look at the 4 best signs from down on the farm so far in 2012:

1. Will Myers (AA) is absolutely raking. The 21 year-old outfielder is hitting .339 with an 1.127 OPS. He’s hit 11 home runs and driven in 25 runs in just 31 games.

Kool Aid Drinker’s Take: I for one think it is about time to give Myers the Hosmer treatment. Eric Hosmer ended the 2012 season by hitting 13 home runs and driving in 35 runs in 50 games at Northwest Arkansas. In 2011 the Royals made Hosmer prove it for just 26 games at Omaha before bringing him to Kansas City. Get Myers to Omaha now, and if he dominates like Hoz did, get him to Kansas City. This kid has the ability to be every bit as special at the plate as Hosmer was last season and could help fill in the void in the lineup that has been Jeff Francoeur.

1. Jake Odorizzi (AA) is striking everyone out. Odorizzi sports a 3.32 ERA with 47 Ks and 10 BBs in 38 innings.

Kool Aid Drinker’s take: I would give Odorizzi until July and if his numbers are anywhere close to the same level it’s time to move him up to Omaha. I think he could turn into a steadier Zack Greinke for the Royals by 2013-2014. His best probably isn’t as good as Greinke’s but it is good enough to battle Danny Duffy for the ace role over the next few seasons.

1. Jorge Bonifacio (A) is emerging. Bonifacio has slumped lately, but still owns a .390 on base percentage at the age of 18 years old.

Kool Aid Drinker’s take: The kid turns 19 on June 4, meaning he has a lot of development to do before he’s anywhere close to Kansas City. Still, having young talent produce early in the process can only be good for the Royals. If he can keep this up, I think he becomes a prime candidate to be included in any type of trade the Royals might make for a legitimate starter.

1. Local kid Jason Adam (A) is dominating in Wilmington. Despite his 1-4 record, Adam has been outstanding so far this season with a 2.08 ERA and nearly a 3:1 K-BB ratio.

Kool Aid Drinker’s Take: I’m not sure Adam has much more potential than back of the rotation, but there would be nothing better than seeing another KC kid in uniform 2-3 years down the road.

I have made it clear that I’m not writing off 2012, but it’s nice to know that even as we expect better results this year, the future still looks brighter than the present.

Despite all of the attention the Kansas City Royals are receiving for their young offensive stars, most analysts still say that the starting pitching will be what holds the Royals back this year.  But is this group getting the credit it deserves?

There is an immense amount of optimism surrounding the 2012 Kansas City Royals.  For any fan under the age of 20, this sort of optimism is unprecedented in their lifetime.  For the rest of us, it is hard to remember the last time there was this much excitement around the club.   However, there is one part of aspect of this year’s Royals edition that most consider to be a huge question mark, and that is the starting pitching.  People outside the organization look at the Royals pitching staff and don’t see a proven Ace. This is a valid point.  But the Royals, for the first time in a good number of years, should have 5 guys (or more) that they can throw out there that can not only miss bats, but give them a chance to win every time out.  Here’s a look at the projected Royals starting rotation and what we might expect from this group in 2012:

Projected Opening Day Starter-Luke Hochevar:

Last season was a mixed bag for Hochevar.  The first half was mostly the usual erratic Luke Hochevar that Royals fans had become used to seeing pitch for the previous 3 years.  He would start a game strong, sometimes even dominant.  Then he would get himself into a jam and things would completely unravel from there.  It was maddening.  Was it in his head?  Could he not pitch effectively out of the stretch?  It wasn’t until Ned Yost began forcing Hochevar to pitch out of these situations that a change became evident.  The results in the 2nd half demonstrated that change.

First the good:

-Hochevar was 2 innings away from pitching 200 innings, finishing with 198, the most of his career to this point

-At 4.68, Hochevar finished with his lowest ERA as a full-time pitcher in the majors

-His 1.283 WHIP was down significantly from 2010, and was the best he has posted as a full-time starter

Now, the better:

-In his 12 starts after the All-Star Break, Hochevar’s ERA was 3.91

-His strikeout rate was also way up.  For the year, Hoch had a 5.8k/9 SO rate. However, after the break, it was 7.7

-His WHIP after the All-Star Break was a stellar 1.12

-After the break, Hochevar averaged 6.11 innings per start

If we assume Hochever picks up where he left off in the 2nd half of the season, we should expect something along these lines:

Innings: 201

ERA: 3.90

WHIP: 1.15

K: 172

Those numbers might not be Ace type of numbers, but that is a damn good #2 starter on a championship team, which is what Hochevar’s potential was always thought to be.  He is also 28 years old, in what should be the prime of his career.

Projected #2 starter-Jonathan Sanchez:

Sanchez is probably the most electrifying pitcher to wear a Royals uniform since Zack Greinke.  If anyone in the 2012 Royals rotation has the potential, when at his best, to become the ace of the staff, it is likely Sanchez.  However, he has always struggled with control, and last year battled injuries.  He will be 29 years old for the duration of the season and is probably the biggest wild-card in the rotation.  When at his best, he is a high strikeout, low hit-rate, high walk-rate pitcher.  If we split the difference between what would be a successful season, or a disappointing season for Sanchez, it might look something like this:

Innings: 175

ERA: 4.10

WHIP: 1.35

K: 185

To put it into perspective, in 2010, Zack Greinke’s last season with the Royals, he posted these numbers:

Innings: 220

ERA: 4.17

WHIP: 1.245

K: 181

Sanchez has the potential to do much more than the numbers listed above.  But if he gives the Royals something along those lines, that will make him a solid contributor to the rotation.

Projected #3 starter-Bruce Chen:

Chen would probably be the biggest candidate for regression out of this group, mainly due to his age.  He will turn 35 midway through the season.    He has also spent a significant amount of time on the Disabled List the last two seasons, which has cut into his Innings Pitched #’s and is definite cause for concern. I have a feeling that Dayton Moore might like a mulligan on the decision to give Chen a 2 year deal for $9,000,000.  If you assume Chen hits the DL for his normal stint in 2012, with a bit of regression, it is reasonable to expect his 2012 numbers to look like this:

Innings: 145

ERA: 3.97

WHIP: 1.40

K: 95

If Chen can make it 145 innings, and put up these type of numbers, he probably slots as more of a #5 starter on a playoff team.  If we ever again have to say that Bruce Chen was the best pitcher on the staff, that will mean things have gone terribly wrong.

Projected #4 starter-Felipe Paulino:

Why the Royals were trying to act as if there was any question as to whether Paulino would be in the rotation at the beginning of the season, is still a mystery.  At least Ned Yost is now conceding that Paulino has a “leg up” in the competition for the rotation spot.  What Paulino did last year is likely the most under-appreciated part of the Royals 2011 campaign.  Paulino will be 29 in October, so he is another who is in what should be the prime of his career.  Despite a paltry win total, he posted an excellent 8.6K/9 innings.  His 4.11 ERA and his 1.372 WHIP should both come down in 2012, as the BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) stats show that an abnormal # of balls dropped for hits last year.  Paulino started 20 games last year, and averaged just over 6 innings per start.  If he is able to start 32 games, that should put him right around 200 innings for the season.  Call me optimistic, but this is what I expect from Paulino this season, with the potential for more:

Innings: 198

ERA: 3.80

WHIP: 1.25

K: 190

This would make Paulino another solid #2-like starter for a championship team, which he is certainly capable of becoming.  If only the Royals could find a #1 starter (hint, hint)

Projected #5 starter-Danny Duffy

It is looking more and more likely that the #5 spot in the rotation will end up going to Duffy, though this is not a certainty yet. Duffy just turned 23 in December, so he has youth on his side.  As a rookie in 2011, he showed promise, but also struggled to go deep into ballgames and pitch his way out of jams.  There was one game though, last year, in which Duffy gave Royals fans a taste of what he could become.  That was on June 19 against the St. Louis Cardinals, when Duffy struck out 9 batters in 3 2/3 innings.  This game showed the reasons both why Duffy has such promise, and why he still had a little ways to go.  While he only walked 1 batter, he gave up 6 hits and let his pitch count get all the way up to 90 before being pulled with 2 outs in the 4th.  If Duffy can adjust his approach this year to not always pitching for the strikeout, learning how to finish a batters off, and pitching more efficiently, he is the guy who could step up and be the ace of this staff.  I expect Duffy to take a huge step forward this year, and for his numbers to look something like this:

Innings: 170

ERA: 3.65

WHIP: 1.35

K: 132

It would make sense that the Royals would continue to be careful with Duffy.  If “The Process” is to come to fruition, Danny Duffy is going to need to be a big part of that.  If he can put up numbers close to those above, that will put him in great position for a true “breakout” campaign in 2013.

While this Royals team is missing the true “ace” starter that they had in Zack Greinke, one could argue that top to bottom, this is the best rotation the Royals have had in over a decade.  While injuries could play a role in this, there is also more starting pitching depth in the organization than at any other time in recent history.  Whether it’s Luis Mendoza, Aaron Crow, Mike Montgomery, Nate Adcock, or someone else, the Royals should be able to keep things afloat should one or more of these guys go down.   This group of starting pitchers will be one of the more interesting things to monitor as we get rolling in 2012.