Listen, I’m as guilty of this as anyone…probably even more so. But the 2012 Kansas City Royals are who we thought they were, almost exactly. They’re three wins away from the team’s best record in four seasons, and seven away from their best in ten. They are young, volatile, and improving. Their offense is developing into a potent force, their bullpen is the strength of the team, and their starting rotation is every bit as hodge podge as we anticipated. While I certainly hoped for, and predicted, much more from this club, they are pretty much exactly where we should have expected them to be. Sure, a 12 game losing streak in April squashed all hope, and a terrible July brought us back to earth, but at the end of the year this club is going to be in the mid-70s in wins. Not bad considering the injuries to starting pitching, Eric Hosmer’s regression, and the abomination that has been Ned Yost as an in-game manager.

I, as my name suggests, drank too much of the Kool Aid in the preseason, and I’m not apologizing for it. For the past 25 years, Royals fans have had little more than the Kool Aid, and we shouldn’t swear it off just because our dreams didn’t come true once again. Instead, I’m taking it a step farther. Instead of telling you what I hope happens this offseason heading into next, I’m going to outline what would be, in my mind, the best ten things that could happen to the Royals this offseason.

10. Ned Yost resigns. Yost loves his hunting and his hunting buddies; maybe just maybe he decides trying to win with both hands tied behind his back isn’t worth it.

9. Jeff Francoeur pulls a Gil Meche. Meche walked away at the age of 32 because he didn’t want to have surgery. Maybe notorious good-guy Frenchy will retire because he can no longer bare the pain he is causing those who cheer for him.

8. Zack Greinke announces he’ll give the Royals a hometown discount, but only if they sign one additional free agent starter. Dayton Moore signs the hurler to a 5 year $95 million contract shortly after…

7. Jeremy Guthrie signs a two year deal worth $12 million. Yes, I’m drinking the Guthrie Kool Aid. The guy loves it here, and Kauffman Stadium is the perfect place for a fly ball pitcher like Guthrie.

6. Ned Yost is fired. No, this isn’t the same as #10, this is much better. This would involve Dayton Moore admitting a mistake and cutting a loss.

5. Terry Francona is hired as the new manager of the Kansas City Royals. Yeah, I’m dreaming…and yeah, they’d have to sign Greinke and Guthrie first.

4. Joakim Soria re-signs with the club and returns to his old self. I’m not sure Soria would even be our closer at this point, but if we’re going to have the bullpen be our strength, let’s go all out.

3. Jeff Francoeur is cut. See 6, only this time in all caps.

2. Oklahoma Joe’s expands to Detroit. While Fielder didn’t experience quite the drop off I expected, he did see his power numbers dip. Give him one taste of Oklahoma Joe’s and he’ll weigh 400 lbs by spring training.

1. David Glass sells the team to the owners of Sporting KC. Yeah, I know Glass said he won’t sell the team. He also said he only wants the team to break even, and he cares about winning. Let’s just hope this was one more lie.

Rk	Player	WPA	PA	Year	Tm	G	AB	H	HR	RBI	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
1	Neifi Perez	-6.819	585	2002	KCR	145	554	131	3	37	.236	.260	.303	.564
2	Sam Dente	-5.181	654	1950	WSH	155	603	144	2	59	.239	.286	.299	.585
3	George Wright	-5.053	393	1985	TEX	109	363	69	2	18	.190	.241	.242	.483
4	Gary Disarcina	-5.051	583	1997	ANA	154	549	135	4	47	.246	.271	.326	.597
5	Ronny Cedeno	-4.570	572	2006	CHC	151	534	131	6	41	.245	.271	.339	.610

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used

Neifi actually had a pretty good opening day in 2002. He went 3-for-5, moved some runners over with a single, knocked in a run with a triple, and scored two runs himself. His .047 WPA was good for second best on the Royals lineup that day. However, a sign of things to come occurred on the last play of the game: Neifi was up in the bottom of the ninth, Royals down 6-8, two on and two out. The Royals clung to a 10% win expectancy, but Neifi popped out and the game was over. On April 24th, he was the Royals WPA hero with a 3-for-4, three RBI game. But the good days were a rare exception in this season from hell.

Neifi hurting the team again...assumedly

Our Neifi came to the plate 585 times that season. Crucial moments of games seemed to find him. Alas, he was rarely up to the task. After only five percent of his plate appearances did he leave his team in a better position to win. Five percent! I do not even understand how that is possible when he got on base 26% of the time, but there it is. He had a few especially disastrous games, but he achieved the historic low more by being consistently bad day in and day out. With runners in scoring position, his already dreadful offensive skills tumbled even lower to the tune of .221/.246/.270. The Worst Season A Royals Player Ever Had may have hit its nadir when Perez refused to enter a game:

Perez…created a major clubhouse incident by refusing to enter a Sept. 9 game against the Chicago White Sox as a defensive replacement for rookie Angel Berroa. Perez later said his refusal was a joke that was misinterpreted, but his action caused a rift with several teammates. Many privately called for his immediate dismissal from the club.–Bob Dutton, November 19, 2002 Kansas City Star

Neifi makes Angel Berroa look like a golden god. Here are the Royals worst WPA single seasons:

 

Rk	Player	WPA	PA	Year	Tm	G	H	HR	RBI	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
1	Neifi Perez	-6.819	585	2002	KCR	145	131	3	37	.236	.260	.303	.564
2	Angel Berroa	-3.448	503	2006	KCR	132	111	9	54	.234	.259	.333	.592
3	Angel Salazar	-3.437	332	1987	KCR	116	65	2	21	.205	.219	.246	.465
4	Greg Gagne	-2.923	581	1993	KCR	159	151	10	57	.280	.319	.406	.724
5	Tony Pena	-2.902	536	2007	KCR	152	136	2	47	.267	.284	.356	.640
6	Jason Kendall	-2.832	490	2010	KCR	118	111	0	37	.256	.318	.297	.615
7	Cookie Rojas	-2.828	409	1970	KCR	98	100	2	28	.260	.296	.326	.622
8	John Buck	-2.818	430	2005	KCR	118	97	12	47	.242	.287	.389	.676
9	David Howard	-2.805	485	1996	KCR	143	92	4	48	.219	.291	.305	.595
10	Jermaine Dye	-2.756	283	1997	KCR	75	62	7	22	.236	.284	.369	.653

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used

Jason Kendall sighting! Kind of ironic that Jermaine Dye makes the list.

Here is a happier list, the Royals best WPA single seasons:

Escobar is bringing up the rear in all of the majors, and is on pace to enter some seriously unpleasant territory. At his current pace, if he equaled Perez’s 585 plate appearances, he would end up with -8.7 WPA. Ruh-roh.

On a recent broadcast, Royals TV announcer Ryan Lefebvre remarked that no one is complaining about shortstop Alcides Escobar’s feeble bat thanks to his spectacular defense so far this year. His defense has rightfully been universally lauded. Escobar looks like a gold glover, seemingly making a jaw-dropping play every game. After the horror show that shortstop defense has been in KC for the last decade, Royals fans are giddy to finally have a terrific play-maker at short. It does make it easy to overlook how pitiful Escobar has been with the stick. The glove is so good that Escobar’s bat could be merely bad and Royals fans would be thrilled. But unfortunately, Escobar has not been just bad with the bat. He has been an abomination. And it is getting to the point where it can no longer be ignored.

photo by Minda Haas

Escobar had 690 plate appearances with the Brewers between 2008-10, and put up a line of .250/.298/.335 (72 OPS+) in that time. Nothing to get excited about, but those numbers look Ruthian compared to his start this year: .221/.245/.253 (42 OPS+). There might need to be two Escobars playing shortstop to prevent enough runs on D to make up for the out-machine he has been at the plate.

Comparing Escobar to his light-hitting AL shortstop brethren does not make him look any better. Of the 15 qualifying AL shortstops to date, Escobar is far and away the worst hitter. Escobar is last in BB%, OBP, wOBA, wRC+, WPA, WPA/LI, and RE24:

2011 AL shortstops through April 27

Win probability added (WPA) is not a great measure of a hitter’s talent since it is dependent on many things out of his control, but it is significant that Escobar’s lack of hitting hurt his team’s chances of winning more than any other player in 2010. And now he has jumped out to have the worst WPA in the majors so far in 2011. Combine 2010 with early 2011, and things get really ugly:

Using WPA divided by leverage index (WPA/LI) to strip away some of the chance/luck factor, Escobar still looks like the last player you want batting for your team (adding 2010 and early 2011 again):

How about the worst hitters from the start of 2010 through the present day by weighted runs created plus:

Make no mistake about it – Escobar has been the single worst hitter in baseball since 2010. I am pretty sure no level of defense could make up for that. The good news is that surely he is not this bad. His minor league line over six years was .293/.333/.377. The updated ZiPS projection sees him improving to the tune of .253/.294/.328 by season’s end. I think the Royals could be happy with even that modest production. I love the glove and arm as much as anyone, and am certainly not suggesting Escobar should not be the everyday shortstop for the rest of the year. The Royals have to give Escobar every chance to become an acceptably bad hitter. But as the season wears on, it is getting harder and harder to overlook just how damaging Escobar’s bat has been to the offense.

You can listen to Aaron Stilley discuss this article and more as a guest on the Broken Bat Single podcast, and follow him on Twitter: @KC_Baseball.