Who’s Hot?

Shelby Miller, St. Louis Cardinals

How do you pick which start was more impressive? I finally had to choose Miller’s since I’ve seen Adam Wainwright’s greatness before. I don’t think it’s a stretch at all to say that the 22-year-old pitched the single best game by a rookie starter since Kerry Wood’s 20-strikeout masterpiece against the Astros in 1998. Miller struck out 13, walked NONE and allowed only a broken-bat base hit against the Rockies. Some of the strikeouts were absolutely jaw-dropping. Perfectly placed fastballs. Breaking balls that dropped right over the plate. You name it. Miller had it all working for him. He said after the game on MLB Network that it was the best game he had ever pitched. Among the many stats and charts I’ve seen over the weekend about the pure greatness of this start, this one really jumped out at me: in the past 10 years, how many starts have there been where the pitcher allowed one hit (or none), struck out at least 13 batters, while walking none? Three. That’s it.  Here they are:

• 5/18/2004 – Randy Johnson, age 40, Arizona vs. Atlanta (perfect game)
• 6/13/2012 – Matt Cain, age 27, SF vs. Houston (perfect game)
• 5/10/2013 – Miller

The fact that the Big Unit pitched a perfect game at age 40 quite a feat as well, but a subject for another day. This is a damn impressive list. Miller is 22 and just scratching the surface of his abilities. If you own Miller on your fantasy team, here are a couple of other stats that will have you patting yourself on the back: he has yet to allow more than three earned runs in a start and his strikeout-to-walk ratio is 51-to-11. That is dominating for any starter. Of course, it is important to remember that Miller has less than a dozen major-league starts under his belt and there is bound to be some adjustment as opposing teams become more familiar with him. It would be unrealistic to expect no regression. Then again, as he matures, he figures to get even better. So far, it appears that the #1 starter-like projections predicted for Miller are right on target. After Friday night, Rockies hitters are in position to argue that point.

Who’s Not?

Matt Kemp, Los Angeles Dodgers

When your most noteworthy accomplishment of the season is a post-game altercation with another player, you know you’re off to a bad start. Someone please alert Kemp that the 2013 season started over a month ago. Entering Sunday’s games, Kemp’s batting line looked like that of a fourth outfielder on a good team: 1 HR, 14 RBI, 5 SB, .268 average. Okay, the RBI total is a little better than that of a reserve, but that’s about it. He just can’t get on track. How much longer can fantasy owners keep saying, “it’s early – he’ll be fine”? Fantasy owners cannot be happy to see that he is on pace for 4 HRs and 71 runs scored. Kemp has driven in one measly run and stolen a single base since Cinco de Mayo. He might have had an 11-game hitting streak going, but those hits aren’t translating to other stats for fantasy owners (or the Dodgers). Since you likely paid big auction dollars or used a high draft pick on Kemp, you really have no realistic choice but to wait and hope that he gets going soon. Trading him now would be a pennies-on-the-dollar move.

Playing the Name Game

Player A: .298/.365/.632, 4 HR, 13 RBI, 10 runs, 1 SB

Player B: .285/.379/.551, 4 HR, 12 RBI, 10 runs, 0 SB

Player A is the Angels’ Mike Trout. Player B is the Indians’ Mark Reynolds. Trout is being viewed by some baseball analysts as a bust, while Reynolds is being hailed as the best bargain free-agent signing of the year. Both are incorrect. Trout is on pace for 27 homers, 112 RBI, 22 steals and 100 runs scored. Reynolds is not going to hit 50 homers and drive in 150, as he is currently on pace to do. But it’s a mighty nice hot streak for the Sons of Geronimo and fantasy owners to enjoy. Anyone who considers Trout a bust, or who thinks Reynolds is going to maintain his current numbers, is an idiot. Let’s check back in a month.

Player A: 1-0, 3.85 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 22 Ks, 14 IP

Player B: 2-0, 2.31 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 16 Ks, 11 2/3 IP

Player A is Yu Darvish of the Rangers. Player B is Ubaldo Jimenez of the Indians. I had to read those numbers three times to make sure I wasn’t mixing them up with, say, James Shields or another front-line AL starter. Jimenez has actually put together back-to-back quality starts for the Tribe. In fact, Jimenez out-pitched Justin Verlander on Saturday, his third straight win.  Results like that are more in line with what the Indians had in mind when they dealt two of their top pitching prospects to the Rockies for the former All-Star starter in  July 2011. Personally, I wouldn’t trust that Jimenez has made some sort of breakthrough, but his success and that of Scott Kazmir, Cleveland is on a roll the past couple weeks and is bearing down on Detroit for first in the AL Central. The Indians have plenty of hitting. If, by chance, Jimenez can continue pitching this effectively, the Indians will be a big step closer to being a genuine contender.

Random Thoughts

• One final note on Shelby Miller: he has been quoted as saying that he has not shaken off a single pitch Yadier Molina has called for all season. Not only do you not run on Yadi, you don’t shake off Yadi, either.

• Let’s not forget Jon Lester. He pitched a beauty of his own last Friday night against the Blue Jays. He allowed just one hit, a double by Maicer Izturis in the 6^th inning. For the season, Lester is 5-0 with a 2.73 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. It’s not a coincidence that he is pitching like an ace and the Red Sox are winning again.

• Wainwright’s shutout of the Rockies on Saturday was no slouch, either. He didn’t strike out as many batters as Miller did Friday, but he had dazzling command of that 12-to-6 bender that gets hitters bailing out of the batter’s box, only to watch the ball drop right in the zone. When he gets that pitch going, he’s as fun to watch as any dominant ace.

• Wainwright Walk Watch: 4. That’s four batters that Wainwright has walked this season (in a National League-high 58 2/3 innings), compared with 55 strikeouts. That’s a 13.75 strikeout-to-walk ratio, which is so far beyond ridiculously good that it’s, well, ridiculous.

• On the other hand, there’s poor Philip Humber of the Astros. First he was banished to the bullpen by Houston. Then, after getting hammered out of the pen Saturday night, his stats sit thusly: 0-8, a ghastly 9.59 ERA, 2.02 WHIP, 43 ERA+. When you see that Humber has allowed 14 hits and nearly four walks per nine innings, it’s no wonder he has been charged with the loss in eight of his nine appearances this season. How did he ever pitch a perfect game?
• I think enough has been said and written about how terrible Angel Hernandez as an umpire. On second thought, no, it hasn’t been enough – his continued employment in an embarrassment to baseball. Likewise with Bob Davidson. A scientific poll (read: not scientific at all) reveals that the overall quality of umpiring would double if just those two were pink-slipped.

• As incompetent as Hernandez’s blown home run call was, it pales in comparison to the fiasco the following night with Astros manager Bo Porter just making up rules regarding pitching changes. Botching a call is nothing compared to not knowing the stinking rule book. My idea for an outside-the-box punishment for those umpires? Having to umpire a game while wearing dunce caps.

• They could borrow them from the ESPN executives who think it’s a good idea to pay John Kruk a salary to talk about baseball on TV.

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That’s not to say we don’t participate and have some fun.

Friends of the site, Through The Fence Baseball, host a number of leagues and they need some help filling them up.  The guys over there sent the following information and asked us to pass it along.

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This week, the Royals continue their home stand with Baltimore and Oakland coming to town each for three. Kansas City has a much more favorable offensive schedule, finally. The O’s will throw Bergeson, Arrieta and Timlin and the A’s will send Gonzalez (L), McCarthy, and Ross.

Photo Courtesy of Minda Haas

Injury Front:

Jarrod Dyson had worked his way into some playing time but left Sunday’s game against the Twins with a sprained ankle. It’s uncertain how much time the speedster will miss, but an injured ankle will hamper his greatest strength, running. Dyson will be interesting to watch once he gets healthy as he has 7 stolen bases in 7 attempts.

Playing Time:

Mike Aviles’ playing time and hitting is still streaky. Wilson Betemit is still the guy to own at third as he continues to hit. Look to deal him now as he will not be able to sustain this pace and Mike Moustakas is a month away.

HOT:

Former Mizzou standout Aaron Crow was elected pitcher of the month by the Kansas City media for April. He went 2-0 and did not surrender a run in 13 2/3 innings while striking out 14. He was drafted as a starter and had 29 starts in the minors last year displaying good K rates (7.9) but some trouble with control (3.6 BB/9). He has been lucky with a low BABIP (.219) and a 100% LOB%. Still, his fastball is consistently 95 and his slider is an effective pitch as well. In a holds league he’s worth owning and in a keeper league he’d be worth stashing away as he might work into a starting role or closing role in the near future.

NOT:

Owning a Royals’ starter is not recommended at this time. Francis, Chen, and Hochevar have all shown flashes of being decent matchup starters. However, their inconsistency can play havoc on your team.

This week the Cards head home to play seven with four against Florida and three against division rival Milwaukee. The offense is hitting on all cylinders and will look to continue against a decent pitching force this week. The Marlins will throw Volstad, Sanchez, Vasquez and Johnson while the Brewers will send Wolf (L), Gallardo, and Narveson (L). Johnson and Wolf have been two of the best pitchers in the NL to start the season but the other five have been up and down in performances.

Photo Courtesy of Erika Lynn

Injury Front:

Skip Schumaker continues to recover and is still two weeks or more away from returning.

David Freese left Sunday’s game with a broken third metacarpal in his left hand. He’ll head to the DL and might need surgery.

Nick Punto also left Sunday’s game with tightness in his hamstring.

Playing Time:

Daniel Descalso will see his already increasing role grow this week with the injury to Freese. Matt Carpenter might get the call to replace Freese on the roster. He had a great spring but was ice cold to start the season at AAA. He now is getting back on track. He has great plate discipline and is an interesting one to watch but not worth owning at this juncture. He was the organization’s Minor League Player of the Year in 2010.

The bullpen is an ultra-committee right now. Boggs blew a save, Sanchez grabbed one, Miller grabbed one and Salas got two. There’s no way to tell who will get the call at this point and until a clear option presents itself it’s best to stay away.

HOT:

It feels like Lance Berkman has been on this list every week. Last week he made Houston fans remember what they loved about him and made them want to forget why they let him go. This week he went 11-24 with a gigantic performance at Houston on Thursday going 4-5 with 2 HR and 5 RBI. Over his last ten, he’s hitting .526 with 2 HR and 10 RBI with 9 Runs scored. Not too shabby.

David Freese was hot but finds himself with a frustrating trip to the DL ahead. In his last ten he’s hit .351 with 5 RBI. He’s worth stashing away ‘til he gets healthy but the lack of power is somewhat concerning, of his 31 hits this season only 6 are for extra bases. It feels like he is younger than he really is (he turned 28 on Thursday) so expecting a breakout in power is not reasonable. If he stays healthy, his HR ceiling may be around 12-15.

Matt Holliday continues to rake and has an 8 game hitting streak. Usually a slow starter, Matt looks locked in and could experience a year closer to his career best in 2007.

Kyle Lohse has now thrown 4 straight quality starts. He’s going deep into ball games displaying good control and decent strikeout rates. Opposing hitters are only managing a .173 average. He’s a must start against Florida and with the way he’s going it would be worth considering him against Milwaukee, only because he is at home.

NOT:

No one really warrants be named on this list this week. We’ve already surmised that Ryan Franklin is done and praised the heavens because defense is not a problem in fantasy baseball.

The Indians come into town for four and an early divisional battle for first place. The Royals will then head south to Texas. Once again they face a tough schedule drawing the solid pitching of Cleveland in Carrasco, Talbot, Masterson, and Tomlin. Together they have thrown eight straight quality starts. They will then get Holland, Ogando, and Wilson for the Rangers who have thrown five quality starts in their last six outings.

Injury Front:

Bruce Chen hurt his back this week but should not miss his next scheduled start. He’s been solid in 3 starts with a 2.37 ERA. Not a bad fill-in if you are desperate in deeper leagues. Robinson Tejeda hit the DL this week with right shoulder inflammation. The team does not have a clear-cut set-up man and will play it by matchups.

Playing Time:

Jeremy Jeffress did pick up a spec save this week, which may be indicative of who would be next in line given a Soria injury or trade. Wilson Betemit still has seen playing time with his hot bat, however, Mike Aviles is still getting his chances and raked in 8 RBI this week.

HOT:

Luke Hochevar has posted back-to-back quality starts. He’s been prone to the long ball giving up 6 jacks. He’s also been very lucky sporting a .203 BABIP. He has displayed a good K/BB rate at 16/4 and his WHIP is 1.01. He shut down the Mariners this week only allowing one hit through seven innings. At this point, he’s a decent spot starter if the match-up is right. Remember, he once was the top overall pick.

Wilson Betemit’s bat remains hot as he slugged .824 over the last week with a 1.424 OPS. It’s hard to know what Ned Yost will do from game to game so watch your daily lineups closely and expect Betemit to keep getting looks as long as he is hot. Both he and Aviles are just keeping the spot warm for Mike Moustakas until June 1^st.

NOT:

Kyle Davies should not be owned in any league. He’s surrendered 23 hits in 14 innings as opponents are hitting .383 off him. If the Royals continue to contend, Davies will have to be dismissed in favor of Dan Duffy who is polished and ready at AAA Omaha.

The Cardinals are off Monday then have Washington and Cincinnati coming to town for three apiece. The Nationals send lefty Lannan, righty Zimmerman, and lefty Gorzelanny to the bump. Then, the rival Reds will counter with Volquez, Wood (L), and Arroyo. These starting pitchers will be a little tougher than last week and they will have their work cut out for them against a team who is hitting on all cylinders.

Injury Front:

Jaime Garcia had some issues with nerves in his foot during his last outing. He should be good to go on Wednesday.

Playing Time:

Both Allen Craig and Daniel Descalso continue to get regular at-bats for Berkman and Freese respectively. If you are digging deep in NL leagues, Craig’s not a bad guy to have on your bench as he has a little pop and smacked a three run homer Saturday against the Dodgers.

HOT:

The Puma has become big in St. Louis. Lance Berkman led a scoring barrage for the Cards and hit six out last week. He is scorching hot right now going 10-24 this past week while knocking in twelve and scoring nine runs. There were some questions regarding Berkman coming into the season in regards to his bat and his power. Now that he is healthy, Berkman is starting to show that last year’s decline could mostly be chalked up to being banged up.

If you took my advice last week, Colby Rasmus paid off again. He is seeing the ball well and a breakout year seems to be here. He was 13-35 and he is scoring runs like crazy (tied for MLB lead with 15). He’s played in all 16 games, including games against tough lefties such as Clayton Kershaw. This will up his plate appearances over any of his previous years and push him closer to 100-28-85.

NOT:

Jake Westbrook continues to struggle. His strikeouts are down, his walks are up and he’s giving up the long ball. All these should begin to correct themselves as Jake will regress (in a good way) back to what he has been in the past. He’s a two start pitcher this week, if he were not facing the Reds, he’d be a decent option, but you’ll want to wait another week for him to come around.

Ryan Franklin= 5 save opportunities, 4 blown saves. Enough said.

The Cardinals are doing a little west coast swing. They will visit Chase Field in Arizona for three and then head to Chavez and visit the Dodgers for four. In Arizona, the Birds draw Barry Enright, Armando Galarraga, and Ian Kennedy. In L.A., they get to face Hiroki Kuroda, Jon Garland, Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley.

Matt Holliday returned from his appendectomy on Sunday and should be good to go for period 2. Expect Allen Craig and John Jay to return to the bench and offer little fantasy value. The Redbirds offense has had a hard time getting going early on. Facing the Dodgers pitching staff might deter you from playing their better bats. However, the lineup has actually fared pretty well against them.

Both Chris Carpenter and Kyle McClellan are two start pitchers this week. They both have been sharp this spring and now into the second week in the season. Feel free to go with both of them, especially Carp.

Who’s Hot and Who’s Not:

HOT:

Even though he botched a play that cost the Cardinals a game on Saturday, Colby Rasmus has been the best bat for the Redbirds thus far into the 2011 season. He’s 11-31 for a .355 average including a monstrous home run Saturday. He has a career .371 average hitting at Chase with a 1.177 OPS so that hot hitting should continue.

Jaime Garcia is still sizzling. This week he stymied the Giants striking out 9 through six innings. What’s even better is that LaRussa kept his pitch count at 82. Little things like this will help ensure Garcia has gas in the tank at the end of the season.

NOT:

Jake Westbrook has surrendered 11 runs in 10 innings through two starts. His control is to blame as has walked 9 and struck out 5. He should turn things around but you’ll want him sitting until he does.

After blowing only 2 saves all last season, Ryan Franklin has already blown three in the first 9 games. If Motte or any other viable option were ready to take over, Franklin would have lost his job. However, LaRussa, Mozeliak and the leadership still have confidence in him. It may take 2-3 more blow ups for him to lose his role.

Albert Pujols hit into his 6^th double play Sunday. He has five hits in 9 games. Matt Holliday has four hits in two games. Albert is suffering from terrible luck with a .143 BABIP. He also is hitting a ton of ground balls. He has a 1.60 GB/FB rate nearly doubling last years average. At the plate he seems to be lunging a bit and he is rolling over on a lot of outside pitches. As soon as you see him correct it by hitting the ball the other way, then this slump will come to an end. There is no way you can consider benching him. If there ever were a time you could wrestle him away from another owner, this would be it.

The Royals will play two at Minnesota this week then return home for a four game series with the Mariners and draw one of the tougher offensive schedules of the week. They get two Twin lefties in Brian Duensing and Francisco Liriano then at home they have Doug Fister, Eric Bedard, Felix Hernandez and Michael Pineda.

The top half of the lineup is hitting well led by Billy Butler and Alex Gordon. The slow start for Mike Aviles has meant more time for Chris Getz at the top of the lineup. Getz has capitalized and he gets an instant boost in value, as he will gain more at-bats, which gives more opportunity to steal and be driven in by the heart of the line-up. In limited action last year he stole 15 and the year before swiped 25.

Who’s Hot and Who’s Not:

HOT:

Billy Butler has hit in all 8 games he’s played in April. This week he went 9-17 and had four multi hit games. Early on, he is walking more and striking out less with a great .270 ISO.

Jeff Francis has seen his ground ball rates at 58% in the early goings and has a nice K/BB ratio of 4.00. This gives him a 1.98 ERA with a 1.10 WHIP through two starts. His BABIP has actually been unlucky at .268 but his LOB% is unsustainable at 98.4%, expect some regression to come. However as a two-start pitcher this week, Francis is good to go pitching in Target Field and matching up against a puny Seattle lineup is a nice draw.

Alex Gordon is starting to show glimpses that he may live up to his potential. He continued hitting this week going 9-20. Even though he is hitting the ball well, he may come back down to earth a bit this week. He faces three left-handers and has only hit .222 in his career versus southpaws. Plus he faces King Felix and has a .111 career average against him. If you have a better outfield option, this would be a week to consider it. Another good play would be to seek out his trade value, as it is most likely pretty high right now.

NOT:

Mike Aviles has started cold going 3-26. Wilson Betemit has seen more time at third. Manager Ned Yost said he would mix in players in the infield so this will not mean a permanent loss of time for Aviles.