To Start Or To Relieve: Wade Davis
James Shields was the “big name” in the Shields/Wade Davis trade, but the success or failure of the trade hinges on Davis. Shields is the Kansas City Royals’ ace, but he’s a free agent after the 2014 season. Whether he pitches well or not, it’s likely he’s gone after two years. However, Davis is under team control until 2016. The Royals believe Shields will improve the team now. As for Davis, the Royals believe he will develop into a two or three starter and be a part of the starting rotation the next few seasons.
This spring, the Royals plan to give Davis every chance to make the starting rotation as their 3-4-5 starter. From 2009-2011, Davis started 64 games for the Tampa Bay Rays. But last year, Davis stayed in the bullpen, appearing in 54 games. During Spring Training, the Rays gave Davis a shot as their fifth starter, but he lost out to Jeff Niemann. And when Niemann went down with a broken ankle, the Rays promoted Alex Cobb to the starting rotation, leaving Davis in the bullpen.
So is Davis a better starter, or a better reliever? Let’s see what the stats say:
| Year | G | GS | IP | ER | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | 3.72 | 6 | 6 | 36.1 | 15 | 1.266 | 8.2 | 0.5 | 3.2 | 8.9 | 2.77 |
| 2010 | 4.07 | 29 | 29 | 168.0 | 76 | 1.351 | 8.8 | 1.3 | 3.3 | 6.1 | 1.82 |
| 2011 | 4.45 | 29 | 29 | 184.0 | 91 | 1.375 | 9.3 | 1.1 | 3.1 | 5.1 | 1.67 |
| 2012 | 2.43 | 54 | 0 | 70.1 | 19 | 1.095 | 6.1 | 0.6 | 3.7 | 11.1 | 3.00 |
| 4 Yrs | 3.94 | 118 | 64 | 458.2 | 201 | 1.315 | 8.6 | 1.1 | 3.3 | 6.7 | 2.04 |
| 162 Game Avg. | 3.94 | 44 | 24 | 171 | 75 | 1.315 | 8.6 | 1.1 | 3.3 | 6.7 | 2.04 |
Davis prefers a starting role, but his stats say he’s a better reliever. He had a much lower ERA, and over nine innings gave up fewer hits and struck out more batters. However, he did walk more batters over nine innings, which isn’t good if you’re a reliever. And with the Rays talented starting rotation last year, Davis stayed in the bullpen.
But how does Davis as a starter compare to the 2012 Royals starting rotation? Here’s the stats of the top five Royals starters:
| Rk | G | GS | IP | ER | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bruce Chen* | 5.07 | 34 | 34 | 191.2 | 108 | 1.367 | 10.1 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 6.6 | 2.98 |
| 2 | Luke Hochevar | 5.73 | 32 | 32 | 185.1 | 118 | 1.419 | 9.8 | 1.3 | 3.0 | 7.0 | 2.36 |
| 3 | Luis Mendoza | 4.23 | 30 | 25 | 166.0 | 78 | 1.416 | 9.5 | 0.8 | 3.2 | 5.6 | 1.76 |
| 4 | Jeremy Guthrie | 3.16 | 14 | 14 | 91.0 | 32 | 1.132 | 8.3 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 5.5 | 2.95 |
| 5 | Will Smith* | 5.32 | 16 | 16 | 89.2 | 53 | 1.606 | 11.1 | 1.2 | 3.3 | 5.9 | 1.79 |
If you take Davis’ worst year, 2011, he had a better ERA than the Royals rotation, save Jeremy Guthrie and Luis Mendoza. The Royals rotation had more SO/9 than the 2011 Davis and except for Mendoza and Will Smith, the Royals rotation had a better BB/9 ratio than the 2011 Davis. If Davis was in the Royals starting rotation last year, he would likely be the number three starter behind Guthrie and Mendoza.
So what does this mean? Well, Davis is a good middle of the rotation starter, but is a better reliever. If Bruce Chen and Mendoza regress, Luke Hochevar pitches like Luke Hochevar and Davis pitches like he did in 2010, he’ll be in the starting rotation. But if Chen, Mendoza or Hochevar have a great Spring Training, Davis might end up in the bullpen.
But that’s not likely, despite what happens this spring. The Royals will give Davis every opportunity to make the starting rotation, just to show the Shields/Davis trade wasn’t a bust like some Royals fans and pundits think it is. If Shields and Davis are starters, the trade doesn’t look bad. The team got two quality starters to improve their rotation. But if Shields is a starter and Davis is a reliever, then the trade looks like the Royals got an ace for only two years and another bullpen arm in an already strong bullpen. Not bad, but not that good either.